Ranking ACC Teams - 5 year Record

[GTFLETCH]

Ok...So lets go Apples to Apples... Lets compare the ten year record before CPJ, and the ten years under CPJ..

CPJ Era 2008-Present
Overall record: 76-54
Conf record: 47-34
ACC Titles: 2009
Bowl record: 3-5
Top 25 Rankings: 3 (2008,09,14)
Top 10 Rankings: 1 (2014)
NY6/BCS Bowls appearances: 3 (08 Peach, 09 & 14 Orange)
Record vs Georgia: 3-7
Record vs Clemson: :5-6
3X ACC Coach of the Year (2008,09,14)

Pre CPJ Era 1998-2007 (G. O'leary & C. Gailey)
Overall record: 79-47
Conf record: 50-29
ACC Titles: 1998
Bowl record: 4-6
Top 25 Rankings: 4 (1998,99,00,01)
Top 10 Rankings: 1 (1998)
NY6/BCS Bowls appearances: 1 (2000 Peach)
Record vs Georgia: 3-7
Record vs Clemson: :6-4
2X ACC Coach of the Year (1998 & 2000)
Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year (2000)

So when you look at the decade before CPJ and the decade with CPJ... it is pretty even.... Except CPJ has taken two of his teams to the OB (1-1), something not even done once in the decade prior...

 

[GTFLETCH]

FWIW....Since FSU joined the ACC in 1992, these are the conference records of the teams that were in the conference continously:

FSU..........165-43 (.793)
Clemson... 133-75 (.639)
Ga Tech.....117-91 (.563)
UNC..........106-102 (.510)
UVa..........101-107 (.486)
NC State... 94-114 (.452)
Wake.........67-141 (.322)
Duke.........44-164 (.212)

 

[iceeater1969]

ACC gt record
Last year 500 (4-4)
Last 2 years 500 (8-8)
Last 3 years ( 9-15)
Last 4 years (15-17).

SO
Sub 500 to be decisively reversed (21-19) by going 6-2 =Happy happy!

Get to 500 (20-20) by going 5 -3. and winning some games by a lot = Happy Happy

Added but not likely
Continue to drop (18-22) by going 3-5 w offense not strong . The declining trend is clear and ..

2018 Its Time!
A strong offense and an aggressive defense- finally whomp some Axx

 

[dressedcheeseside]

ACC gt record
Last year 500 (4-4)
Last 2 years 500 (8-8)
Last 3 years ( 9-15)
Last 4 years (15-17).

SO
Sub 500 to be decisively reversed (21-19) by going 6-2 =Happy happy!

Get to 500 (20-20) by going 5 -3. and winning some games by a lot = Happy Happy

Added but not likely
Continue to drop (18-22) by going 3-5 w offense not strong . The declining trend is clear and ..

2018 Its Time!
A strong offense and an aggressive defense- finally whomp some Axx

We have a good combination of talent and experience on O among our starters. Depth is iffy, the injury bug could derail us again if we’re unlucky.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

10 years is very relevant when comparing long term stability of programs but you're not interested in that, are you? We've had our two biggest negative outlier years in the past 3, but that doesn't mean it's a trend that will hold constant moving forward. If we put up a stinker this year, then all bets are off.

If we put up a stinker this year, then it'll be "The last 11 years are very relevant" with the Scheme First, School Second crowd.

I'm interested in a 10-year stat thread but since this one is pretty-clearly labeled "..5 YEAR RECORD", I'm only sticking to the topic by discussing the last 5 years.

And while the worst stinkers have been 2 of the last 3 years, let's not pretend that we were dominant from 2010-2013. We had a losing season in 2010 and won more than 7 games once during that period. That crap got Gailey fired. Today it gets CPJ an extension.

I know, I know. "IIWII".

 

[RamblinWreck92]

Btw, Bobby Dodd was only two games better than CPJ over his final 40 games* in the SEC at 22 - 18.
*equal number of games as the current comparison set

The SEC opponents Dodd faced didn't have any Syracuses, Wakes, nor BCs in 'em.

 

[AE 87]

If we put up a stinker this year, then it'll be "The last 11 years are very relevant" with the Scheme First, School Second crowd.

I'm interested in a 10-year stat thread but since this one is pretty-clearly labeled "..5 YEAR RECORD", I'm only sticking to the topic by discussing the last 5 years.

And while the worst stinkers have been 2 of the last 3 years, let's not pretend that we were dominant from 2010-2013. We had a losing season in 2010 and won more than 7 games once during that period. That crap got Gailey fired. Today it gets CPJ an extension.

I know, I know. "IIWII".

We also beat georgie 2 of the last 4. Let's be real about what got Chan fired.

 

[GTFLETCH]

We also beat georgie 2 of the last 4. Let's be real about what got Chan fired.

Yes.... I think losing to Georgia and to Wake Forest in the ACC game got Chan fired! Also notice Oleary/Johnson had 3 wins against Georgia and had teams finish in the Top 25 and were Coaches of the Year and had teams go to BCS/NY6 Bowls... Chan had none of theses...

 

[gtpi]

imo gt / fsu made the most significant changes last year. between the two programs we will get the most bang for the buck.

i think woodie makes gt top 25 D asap. if he can make lesser talent at asu a top 25 D he should be able to do that here with more talent and better resources.

woodie brought in a good staff. the coaching changes weve made have all been good ones. the addition to the recruiting support staff etc will pay off huge dividends. we tend to do a lot more with a lot less. i could see multiple top 20 finishes over the next few years... im very optimistic.

GT IS TRENDING UPWARDS.

 

[slugboy]

OK, did a little Excel work. Fifteen years of FEI ratings. This is our ranking (lower is better).
Generally, we're in there with Miami, and better than UNC most years. Duke (in Orange) has been improving. We've had a couple of bad years in a row.

 

[GTFLETCH]

imo gt / fsu made the most significant changes last year. between the two programs we will get the most bang for the buck.

i think woodie makes gt top 25 D asap. if he can make lesser talent at asu a top 25 D he should be able to do that here with more talent and better resources.

woodie brought in a good staff. the coaching changes weve made have all been good ones. the addition to the recruiting support staff etc will pay off huge dividends. we tend to do a lot more with a lot less. i could see multiple top 20 finishes over the next few years... im very optimistic.

GT IS TRENDING UPWARDS.

Proof is in the Pudding... I was so excited about our program after the 2014 OB...We were year two with a new DC... Justin Thomas was way better than Vad Lee... and then whammy... 2 bad years with 9 win season squeezed in..

While I hope CNW will be the answer and we will string 3 straight seasons of no less than 8 wins and win another ACC title and OB... I am just not so sure..I am Hopefully optimistic...But I am not willing to bet the house on it..

 

[AE 87]

OK, did a little Excel work. Fifteen years of FEI ratings. This is our ranking (lower is better).
Generally, we're in there with Miami, and better than UNC most years. Duke (in Orange) has been improving. We've had a couple of bad years in a row.
View attachment 3644

Could you do the same thing with offense (OFEI) and defense (DFEI) independently?

 

[stech81]

Am I the only one who doesn't care about the past ? I want to see this season.

 

[slugboy]

Could you do the same thing with offense (OFEI) and defense (DFEI) independently?

I think I can only get the OFEI and DFEI breakouts back to 2007, but I've found a better way to get the data. Not tonight, but I'll do it.

 

[jgtengineer]

We've had two of our worst two seasons in the past 25 years within the timeframe of 2015-2018, so not surprised by this. Have to get back on track this year or I could actually see Paul's seat heating up some

Pauls more likely to retire than get fired.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

OK, did a little Excel work. Fifteen years of FEI ratings. This is our ranking (lower is better).
Generally, we're in there with Miami, and better than UNC most years. Duke (in Orange) has been improving. We've had a couple of bad years in a row.
View attachment 3644

Now you’ve gone and done it, you made GT’s line blue.

 

[slugboy]

Here's Offensive FEI. I used ranking (basically 1-130) since the numbers for 2017 seem like they're on a different scale

So, either I need to use another charting tool (and I'd kinda like to) or I should learn how to pick colors in Excel. We've been one of the better offenses in the ACC, with a major plummet in 2015.

And here's Defensive FEI. We've been declining since 2011

Last year was an improvement over the year before, but the trend is to get a higher rank (farther from #1).

Sorry it's orange/"wrong color gold".

 

[slugboy]

I looked at us against some other schools.
Breaking out OFEI and DEFI by year is a little weird right now, since the formula was updated for 2017. Here's OFEI for Tech, Duke, Miami, BC, and Clemson. Because the formula changed (or the formatting or something, idk), you get a big jump in 2017 for everyone.

If you take out 2017, the graph makes more sense, but you lose last year's data

If you want to compare two offenses, here we are against Louisville:

2014 was our 10-3 year, and it was really good.

Rankings are easier to look at, but they don't tell you when #11-#20 are only an eyelash apart from each other.
Here is our OFEI ranking against some ACC opponents:

2015 was awful (#85 offense). Mostly, we're in the 20's and 30's. 2014 was nice and low at #5 nationally. (And GT is in Gold). We weren't that bad on offense.
I compared us against military academies, since we're similar on Offense (and have been on defense).

Army has been getting better. Navy has been great. These should be normalized against strength of schedule.
And here we are against teams that air out the ball (UCF was one of the highest passing offenses last year)

So, going run-heavy isn't so bad a thing--we're usually really good. But there's one interesting stat from Football Outsiders--it's not that you "run to win", it's that when you're already winning you run the ball. Sometimes, you gotta pass to be in position to win the game.

On defense, I compared us to Flexbone teams to see if that affected your defensive rating. Sure seems to:

We're clustered in pretty tight.

Against ACC teams

• Wow, Clemson's D is good, and Miami is improving on defense.
• Duke's offense isn't really much, but their defense has been improving for the last few years.
• Our defense is trending in the wrong direction and has been since 2007.

Here we are against more pass-happy teams:

 

[slugboy]

Here's the lost chart with the reformatted OFEI in 2017.

Until the other archives are updated, it skews the overall data.

 

[AE 87]

Thanks @slugboy -- some of your OFEI rankings don't seem to match the footballoutsiders webpage.

For example, they have 88 for 2015 while you said 85. They also report #16 for 2011 and #11 for 2012, which doesn't seem to match your chart above.

Oh, and I suspect that talent/recruiting is a better explanation for the DFEI of Navy, Army and Air Force, tifwiw.