By Alex Koenig A while back, John Ezekowitz and I tackled the question of attendance in the NBA and whether or not there are “must-see” road teams. Not surprisingly, our study showed that the oppon…
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From the article:
1. Sustained winning is important. The driving force behind big ticket sales is generally a compelling and successful team. Between 2008 and 2010 the average NCAA stadium was filled to 79.95% capacity – about 44,000 fans. However, teams that had winning seasons in that same time period drew crowds of around 53,000 (88.19%) – an 8% jump in attendance.
Teams that were coming off winning seasons – regardless of whether or not they maintained their winning ways – actually sold more tickets (89.03% of capacity) than their winning predecessors. This same difference is carried on, and exacerbated, to the upper echelons of success – teams with 90% or better winning percentages. It’s very hard to win 90% of your games, and fan bases reward that with home games for those teams averaging almost 63,000 fans (97.38%). But the reward is even greater the following season. Despite seeing their winning percentages drop, on average, to a more reasonable 73%, teams coming off huge years actually sold more tickets than they did in the middle of their success, coming extremely close – 99.98% – to selling out across the board.
Not surprisingly, losing has a similar effect on fan support. Teams that dropped below .500 played in front of crowds that weren’t even ¾ full, with an average stadium being filled to 70.5% capacity. The negative publicity that comes with losing continued to hurt teams the next year. Despite averaging win% hikes of 8%, teams coming off a losing season saw their attendance numbers drop to 69.7%. The lesson here is twofold: 1. winning helps as much as losing hurts; and 2. it usually takes a year for positive results on the field to be reflected with positive results in the stands."
Frankly the idea that attendance has nothing to do with winning seems absurd, IMO.