Stats Program Strength

[dressedcheeseside]

No worries.

Crykee mate, is today talk like an Aussie day?

 

[Sideways]

Speaking of cherry picking a stat. Total PPG is just about useless. You get a lot of group of 5 schools that rate high there because they play no one. You know who usually ranks around 30th in points per game? Alabama. Ask them if they care.

True enough. They don't care because Alabama is all about ball control offense and a terrific defense. They have been like that all the way back to Gene Stallings time. It's what they do. If we really want to get better we will have to recruit better on the defensive side and improve the pass rush. It is just that simple. IMHO for what it is worth.

 

[takethepoints]

I like your analytic approach AE, I just always trust eyeball test over the stat guys.

It's actually got a name: Tukey's Interoccular Trauma Test (i.e. the results hit you right between the eyes.) John Tukey had a wit about him.

Problem = the instances where you can use this are fairly rare. Hence the usefulness of analysis like 87's. I think he's right and that we are actually quite close.

 

[Skeptic]

Thank you for posting, sometimes on this board I get the feeling I'm the only one that feels this way, and it's so simple to understand imo but some how people just don't get it.

Johnson's offense is the football equivalent of the Dr. Fell Syndrome, as it was said afflicted Lyndon Johnson. Some people don't like it. They don't know why they don't like it, though it really gets down to esthetics. It just doesn't look pretty when they line up. It is well known, by everybody, or most of our friends, or 95% of the fans, or all the boosters, and you can read it anywhere because everybody says it, that it doesn't work. Always odd to find technical types unencumbered by facts.

 

[Boomergump]

Johnson's offense is the football equivalent of the Dr. Fell Syndrome, as it was said afflicted Lyndon Johnson. Some people don't like it. They don't know why they don't like it, though it really gets down to esthetics. It just doesn't look pretty when they line up. It is well known, by everybody, or most of our friends, or 95% of the fans, or all the boosters, and you can read it anywhere because everybody says it, that it doesn't work. Always odd to find technical types unencumbered by facts.

I'm pretty sure defenses don't like it. That is probably the most important thing.

 

[bke1984]

Way to cherry pick a stat. Other posts by you prove that you have no credibility.

Using the stat of points per game, GT has only had one offense in the last 5 years ranked in the top 25, and that was obviously 2014 at number 12. The average ranking over the past 5 years is 43rd (with the benefit of rounding). Other offensive stats such as total offense are similar. FBS only.

As you acknowledge, the won loss record has not been pretty. If you look at all the stats, and not just cherry pick, you understand the symptoms. The disease is something else entirely.

Total defense has had a higher ranking 2 of the past 3 years than total offense. I use 3 years because that is the time Roof has been here, even though he is just now getting his recruits in.

Points per drive is a better indicator than PPG. Both Tech and its opponents have less possessions per game in any game we play because of the way our offense burns clock. That ultimately means the PPG will be lower...which actually means our defensive PPG are worse than they seem and our offensive PPG are better than they seem.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I'm pretty sure defenses don't like it. That is probably the most important thing.

Bobby Bowden didn't like it much, either.

 

[Skeptic]

Bobby Bowden didn't like it much, either.

Great get, Cheese. I love his stammering confusion as to what to say about what. I miss that kind of candor.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Special teams is the third leg which has not been mentioned yet. Outside of place kicks our STs has been pretty mediocre / below average the last few years. Or so it seems at times. That has a pretty big bearing on Ws and Ls. It may be more a lack of consistency than a lack of big plays because we have had some big blocks and plays. I think kickoff and punt coverage as well as return ability has been the most lacking.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I'll just put this right here:

 

[YJMD]

For winning, ST matters as does field position as do turnovers as does 2 minute offense / defense stats, which are all jumbled in PPD (O/D).

Nonetheless, this is basically all points scored except for ST or defense, so it's a pretty good measure.

Otherwise, my only problem with this is that teams that play slow (e.g. us) are going to have more variability in results. Basically, flipping a coin is 50/50 heads/tails, but if you flip it 10 times you wouldn't be too surprised to see it hit heads 7 of them. Flip it 100 times and getting heads 70 times is a whole lot less likely. Thus, when you are better than the other team, you're more likely to win the more drives you play (assuming equal fatigue and not trying to sit on a lead).

 

[33jacket]

Special teams is the third leg which has not been mentioned yet. Outside of place kicks our STs has been pretty mediocre / below average the last few years. Or so it seems at times. That has a pretty big bearing on Ws and Ls. It may be more a lack of consistency than a lack of big plays because we have had some big blocks and plays. I think kickoff and punt coverage as well as return ability has been the most lacking.

lets face it. If you want to GENERALIZE Tech under paul its this simple

Special Teams is not that special
Defenses will be mediocre to full suck
Offense is usually good to great

 

[dressedcheeseside]

lets face it. If you want to GENERALIZE Tech under paul its this simple

Special Teams is not that special
Defenses will be mediocre to full suck
Offense is usually good to great

great O + mediocre D + mediocre ST = good team ( 8+ wins)

 

[Skeptic]

lets face it. If you want to GENERALIZE Tech under paul its this simple

Special Teams is not that special
Defenses will be mediocre to full suck
Offense is usually good to great

You're a sly one, aren't you? But in generalized terms, that's a fair assessment, though perhaps "full suck" is a bit much for a Ramblin' Wreck fender flag. You must be a Monty Python fan?

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Nvmd

 

[AE 87]

Special teams is the third leg which has not been mentioned yet. Outside of place kicks our STs has been pretty mediocre / below average the last few years. Or so it seems at times. That has a pretty big bearing on Ws and Ls. It may be more a lack of consistency than a lack of big plays because we have had some big blocks and plays. I think kickoff and punt coverage as well as return ability has been the most lacking.

It's true that my ppd stats don't let me tease out the impact of special teams play. I credit the Off with FGs and give every Off TD 7 pts (I don't count def or st tds).

Also, short field drives count the same as long field drives. That being said, I think the stat stands up with more complicated measures for team ranking.

 

[33jacket]

You're a sly one, aren't you? But in generalized terms, that's a fair assessment, though perhaps "full suck" is a bit much for a Ramblin' Wreck fender flag. You must be a Monty Python fan?

never seen it. Its just under paul we are on our knees on D more than we should be (full suck) you can figure it out from there.

 

[g0lftime]

My observation on PJ coaching style is that he is not particularly enthusiastic about recruiting, is not excited coaching defense or special teams, and just loves to coach offense. He seems to want to hire an experienced defensive coordinator that he can turn the defense over to and that lets him concentrate on offense. He finally got it that a kicker actualy puts points on the board, can make kick-offs out of the end zone, and maybe he should offer a scholly to a top kicker rather than using walk-ons. He better keep innovating his offense because it appears the better defenses are starting to figure this thing out. Something is just not quite right if the offensive line struggles year after year with the same problems, is it coaching, athletic ability, or scheme?

 

[Skeptic]

never seen it. Its just under paul we are on our knees on D more than we should be (full suck) you can figure it out from there.

Well. Didn't intend to go there. I was looking more to the figurative sense. But okay.

 

[Skeptic]

My observation on PJ coaching style is that he is not particularly enthusiastic about recruiting, is not excited coaching defense or special teams, and just loves to coach offense. He seems to want to hire an experienced defensive coordinator that he can turn the defense over to and that lets him concentrate on offense. He finally got it that a kicker actualy puts points on the board, can make kick-offs out of the end zone, and maybe he should offer a scholly to a top kicker rather than using walk-ons. He better keep innovating his offense because it appears the better defenses are starting to figure this thing out. Something is just not quite right if the offensive line struggles year after year with the same problems, is it coaching, athletic ability, or scheme?

Well, you know, Butker is a scholarship kicker, as I believe two punters are. As for "figuring it out" why is it nobody every says that when a power I or pro set or zone read or read option offense is shut down? Nobody ever notes that it has been "figured out" and the team needs something different. )I didn't read one comment about GT "figuring out" FSU's pro-set when it held them to 16 points last year.) It's like my LL coach who would exhort us in the first inning to "Get your pitch and drill it!" But in the 6th inning when we were losing would turn to, "A walk is as good as a hit!" It is only when I got older that I figured out the value was the same in any inning and it just depended on the the desperation of the coach, but it was one base with a runner on regardless. Johnson's offense is now as it was then. Defenses know how to beat it and always have: better athletes who play to their level. That in shorthand is the solution to Johnson's offense, and even then as he has demonstrated, he can make a horse race of it. A walk is as good as a hit.