Preview 2018: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

[Eastman]

Calling it now... TQM, Benson and Lynch all get 1,000 yards on the ground this season

Can’t see that happening. I doubt Lynch will get that many but combined they will make it.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

Can’t see that happening. I doubt Lynch will get that many but combined they will make it.

Benson and TQM will be 1000 yard rushers on their own. It would just be nice to see a healthy 2014 Clinton Lynch. We all know that Qua is a clutch beast when need be, but Lynch is straight up dangerous when he is healthy

 

[MikeJackets1967]

Benson and TQM will be 1000 yard rushers on their own. It would just be nice to see a healthy 2014 Clinton Lynch. We all know that Qua is a clutch beast when need be, but Lynch is straight up dangerous when he is healthy

Do you think TaQuon Marshall will throw for more than 10 touchdowns in 2018? I think TM will throw for 14-16 touchdowns in 2018 and that will help balance out the offense somewhat

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

Do you think TaQuon Marshall will throw for more than 10 touchdowns in 2018? I think TM will throw for 14-16 touchdowns in 2018 and hat will help balance out the offense somewhat

I'm going with 15 rushing TD's and 8 passing TD's

 

[Eastman]

I think the oline will be stronger, bbacks will be stronger, abacks somewhat improved And Taquon will make better reads and therefore the passing game will also improve.

 

[slugboy]

If Tech threw 5 yards passes or slip screens then the completion% would mirror UNC but that's not what Tech does now is it?

I went back to 2004, and we played in a pro set until 2007. We weren’t above 50% then, even with 5 yards passes and slip screens.

Also, one of the “throw for dough” arguments is that our receivers should be open because the defense is selling out for the run. Shouldn’t that send the completion rate higher?

BTW, Tevin Washington was possibly our best passer since Hamilton and Godsey, at least by the stats.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[OldJacketFan]

I went back to 2004, and we played in a pro set until 2007. We weren’t above 50% then, even with 5 yards passes and slip screens.

Also, one of the “throw for dough” arguments is that our receivers should be open because the defense is selling out for the run. Shouldn’t that send the completion rate higher?

BTW, Tevin Washington was possibly our best passer since Hamilton and Godsey, at least by the stats.


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Okay so what point are you making? That the completion% should be higher? I don't think anyone's arguing to the contrary but Tech will never be a 65% completion team as the O is presently run. As far as "throw for dough", the longer the pass the lower the completion% generally, the WRs are not running without coverage unless it's a blown coverage but are singled up.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

Do you think TaQuon Marshall will throw for more than 10 touchdowns in 2018? I think TM will throw for 14-16 touchdowns in 2018 and that will help balance out the offense somewhat

I think we'll win a game for every 2 TDs he throws.

 

[slugboy]

Okay so what point are you making? That the completion% should be higher? I don't think anyone's arguing to the contrary but Tech will never be a 65% completion team as the O is presently run. As far as "throw for dough", the longer the pass the lower the completion% generally, the WRs are not running without coverage unless it's a blown coverage but are singled up.

I don't think completion % is as much of a feature of our offense as something we've seen for the last 15+ years at GT. Flexbone offenses typically don't go much north of 50%, but that might be more a function of CPJ's coaching tree than the Flexbone.

I was starting by saying we don't usually go north of 50% completion percentage, and it's a tall order. Our average over the past 14 years is about 46% and our max is about 52.6%.

In fairness to the original post I replied to, it's a good correlation to our winning percentage (53% correlated). It's a better predictor of how we do than QBR, passing yards, or total yards. I'm a little surprised how well it does. I have to go back into the stats archive to see how we did in 1999 (65.2%). That's ~20 years back to get a completion percentage close to what we're seeing at Duke and UNC right now. FWIW, Gailey's numbers were 3% better than CPJ's at 48%, but being at 48% with Calvin Johnson and BayBay and a good tight end isn't that much to brag about.

GT, Navy, Army, and Air Force do all have about the same completion rate (2017-> GT 36%; Navy 41%; Army 31%; USAF 48%) , but we had about the same completion rate before adopting the Flexbone. Central Florida was a 68% completion rate--but they do use a lot of shotgun.

Here's last year's highlights of UCF vs Navy. They're both lining up the offense in similar ways. But UCF is a more pass-happy version of our offense. They threw for more yards per game (331) than we ran for (307). They were the #33 rushing offense at 199 yards/game. In yards per play, they blew us out at 7.46 ypp (#5) vs. 5.74 for us (#74).
CPJ looked at the Run and Shoot and said "I want to run out of that thing and play smashmouth football". Scott Frost looked at CPJ's offense and said "I want to pass out of that thing".



If you're going to say "our offense as we currently run it" or "currently coach it", it's hard to argue that we're pretty much stuck looking up at a 50% completion rate. If you cut it back to "our offense" and drop the "as we currently run/coach it", we could be up at a higher completion rate and yards per game/yards per play. Unless you think that UCF has once in a lifetime skill players on offense last year.

As for what's important for us to win, the passing game is definitely something to look at.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

I don't think completion % is as much of a feature of our offense as something we've seen for the last 15+ years at GT. Flexbone offenses typically don't go much north of 50%, but that might be more a function of CPJ's coaching tree than the Flexbone.

I was starting by saying we don't usually go north of 50% completion percentage, and it's a tall order. Our average over the past 14 years is about 46% and our max is about 52.6%.

In fairness to the original post I replied to, it's a good correlation to our winning percentage (53% correlated). It's a better predictor of how we do than QBR, passing yards, or total yards. I'm a little surprised how well it does. I have to go back into the stats archive to see how we did in 1999 (65.2%). That's ~20 years back to get a completion percentage close to what we're seeing at Duke and UNC right now. FWIW, Gailey's numbers were 3% better than CPJ's at 48%, but being at 48% with Calvin Johnson and BayBay and a good tight end isn't that much to brag about.

View attachment 3740

GT, Navy, Army, and Air Force do all have about the same completion rate (2017-> GT 36%; Navy 41%; Army 31%; USAF 48%) , but we had about the same completion rate before adopting the Flexbone. Central Florida was a 68% completion rate--but they do use a lot of shotgun.

Here's last year's highlights of UCF vs Navy. They're both lining up the offense in similar ways. But UCF is a more pass-happy version of our offense. They threw for more yards per game (331) than we ran for (307). They were the #33 rushing offense at 199 yards/game. In yards per play, they blew us out at 7.46 ypp (#5) vs. 5.74 for us (#74).
CPJ looked at the Run and Shoot and said "I want to run out of that thing and play smashmouth football". Scott Frost looked at CPJ's offense and said "I want to pass out of that thing".



If you're going to say "our offense as we currently run it" or "currently coach it", it's hard to argue that we're pretty much stuck looking up at a 50% completion rate. If you cut it back to "our offense" and drop the "as we currently run/coach it", we could be up at a higher completion rate and yards per game/yards per play. Unless you think that UCF has once in a lifetime skill players on offense last year.

As for what's important for us to win, the passing game is definitely something to look at.

I think UCF goes 9-3 in the 2018 regular season and they start their slide back to where they were. I think Memphis beats UCF in the AAC Championship Game.

 

[OldJacketFan]

I don't think completion % is as much of a feature of our offense as something we've seen for the last 15+ years at GT. Flexbone offenses typically don't go much north of 50%, but that might be more a function of CPJ's coaching tree than the Flexbone.

I was starting by saying we don't usually go north of 50% completion percentage, and it's a tall order. Our average over the past 14 years is about 46% and our max is about 52.6%.

In fairness to the original post I replied to, it's a good correlation to our winning percentage (53% correlated). It's a better predictor of how we do than QBR, passing yards, or total yards. I'm a little surprised how well it does. I have to go back into the stats archive to see how we did in 1999 (65.2%). That's ~20 years back to get a completion percentage close to what we're seeing at Duke and UNC right now. FWIW, Gailey's numbers were 3% better than CPJ's at 48%, but being at 48% with Calvin Johnson and BayBay and a good tight end isn't that much to brag about.

View attachment 3740

GT, Navy, Army, and Air Force do all have about the same completion rate (2017-> GT 36%; Navy 41%; Army 31%; USAF 48%) , but we had about the same completion rate before adopting the Flexbone. Central Florida was a 68% completion rate--but they do use a lot of shotgun.

Here's last year's highlights of UCF vs Navy. They're both lining up the offense in similar ways. But UCF is a more pass-happy version of our offense. They threw for more yards per game (331) than we ran for (307). They were the #33 rushing offense at 199 yards/game. In yards per play, they blew us out at 7.46 ypp (#5) vs. 5.74 for us (#74).
CPJ looked at the Run and Shoot and said "I want to run out of that thing and play smashmouth football". Scott Frost looked at CPJ's offense and said "I want to pass out of that thing".



If you're going to say "our offense as we currently run it" or "currently coach it", it's hard to argue that we're pretty much stuck looking up at a 50% completion rate. If you cut it back to "our offense" and drop the "as we currently run/coach it", we could be up at a higher completion rate and yards per game/yards per play. Unless you think that UCF has once in a lifetime skill players on offense last year.

As for what's important for us to win, the passing game is definitely something to look at.

I'm not arguing a better completion % is a good indicator of how the O is working but are you saying Tech needs to be in a shotgun ala UCF? TQ did not have a good year passing and I am expecting a big jump from him this year. IIRC a typical Tech passing O year is averaging approx 150 yards/game or so, if he can hit that in 2018 it will be a very good year for the O

 

[iceeater1969]

I don't think completion % is as much of a feature of our offense as something we've seen for the last 15+ years at GT. Flexbone offenses typically don't go much north of 50%, but that might be more a function of CPJ's coaching tree than the Flexbone.

I was starting by saying we don't usually go north of 50% completion percentage, and it's a tall order. Our average over the past 14 years is about 46% and our max is about 52.6%.

In fairness to the original post I replied to, it's a good correlation to our winning percentage (53% correlated). It's a better predictor of how we do than QBR, passing yards, or total yards. I'm a little surprised how well it does. I have to go back into the stats archive to see how we did in 1999 (65.2%). That's ~20 years back to get a completion percentage close to what we're seeing at Duke and UNC right now. FWIW, Gailey's numbers were 3% better than CPJ's at 48%, but being at 48% with Calvin Johnson and BayBay and a good tight end isn't that much to brag about.

View attachment 3740

GT, Navy, Army, and Air Force do all have about the same completion rate (2017-> GT 36%; Navy 41%; Army 31%; USAF 48%) , but we had about the same completion rate before adopting the Flexbone. Central Florida was a 68% completion rate--but they do use a lot of shotgun.

Here's last year's highlights of UCF vs Navy. They're both lining up the offense in similar ways. But UCF is a more pass-happy version of our offense. They threw for more yards per game (331) than we ran for (307). They were the #33 rushing offense at 199 yards/game. In yards per play, they blew us out at 7.46 ypp (#5) vs. 5.74 for us (#74).
CPJ looked at the Run and Shoot and said "I want to run out of that thing and play smashmouth football". Scott Frost looked at CPJ's offense and said "I want to pass out of that thing".



If you're going to say "our offense as we currently run it" or "currently coach it", it's hard to argue that we're pretty much stuck looking up at a 50% completion rate. If you cut it back to "our offense" and drop the "as we currently run/coach it", we could be up at a higher completion rate and yards per game/yards per play. Unless you think that UCF has once in a lifetime skill players on offense last year.

As for what's important for us to win, the passing game is definitely something to look at.

Thanks!

 

[slugboy]

No, I'm not saying we have to go to shotgun. I mentioned shotgun because I put the video up to show UCF and Navy, and they both used shotgun, so I felt I had to mention it to avoid the "there's no shotgun in a flexbone offense" rabbit hole.

Poking around is making me think a lot deeper about what to expect out of the season.

UCF is about 45% pass, 55% run, and we're about 20% pass, 80% run. We got about 80% of our yards running, while UCF got about 70% passing. They got a boatload more yards that we did, and only played one more game.

I'd say throwing the ball more often will get you better at throwing it. I don't think other defenses respect our passing game.

TaQuan's QBR is smack in the middle of the pack for the last 14 years, but his completion percentage is the worst. I doubt that he'll have a massive improvement in QBR or completion percentage. Josh Nesbitt did have one in year 2, so it's possible. JT's QBR dropped a ton in the 3-9 year that he was injured. The question at QB is whether last year was a bad year, or if it was what we should expect. I'd think with some coaching, the completion percentage might get up to about 45% and the QBR up around 135. That's a sizeable improvement. It's a lot to hope for a year like one of the better Nesbitt/Tevin Washington/JT years.

Looking at the numbers, the easier way to get an improvement at QB is to get a different QB in the game.

At BBack, we either need more of a Dwyer kind of season or a Days/Laskey combo. Benson did go over 1000 yards last season, but Dwyer and Allen went for about 2000, while Days and Laskey went for about 1800. We desperately need a strong #2 BBack--one that can get 5-600 yards. We also need more yards out of the lead BBack.

We've had a #1 receiver for the past 10 years--I mean Ricky Jeune caught more than half our passes last year. Everyone knew where the ball was going on a pass play. 2016 had a pretty even split between Jeune, Stewart, and Lynch. In 2015, Jeune caught more than twice as many passes as the next closest receiver and 1/3rd of our yards. In 2014, Smelter and Waller were a good combo (but I think Waller's numbers were better because he picked up after Smelter was injured). When you go back to 2009, BayBay caught 46 of our 78 completions. The years that we have more than one receiver, we tend to do better. TaQuan will need to distribute the ball more for us to do well. Receiving looks like a weak point this year, unless a couple of young players step up. Are they getting enough reps to develop, though?

I'm hoping the deeper offensive line helps this year. Our typical season is 7 wins. Today, I'm backsliding and thinking 6 wins, maybe we get a 7th in a bowl game. I'd like to be wrong, and if anything gives me hope, it's the offensive line.

 

[bobongo]

Calling it now... TQM, Benson and Lynch all get 1,000 yards on the ground this season

Benson gets 1,ooo and Lynch gets 1,500 yards. TQM throws for 1,500 yards and runs for 500.

If the rest of the backs get 1,500 total, we'll average 500 yards per game total offense. We do that (we'll be top ten total offense) and play defense like I think we can and will under Woody, we'll win the Coastal and go to major bowl. I hope. If the o-line stays healthy it can happen.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Anybody want to guess what Josh Nesbitt’s completion percentage was in 2010 when he didn’t have Bay Bay Thomas to throw to?

 

[gtwcf]

I'm hoping that a healthy Clinton Lynch turns quite a few of those seam/skinny posts over the middle into big plays. They were there for the taking last year and we didn't succeed nearly enough. From what I saw in the spring game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Lynch be our leading receiver next year. Although I do have big hopes for Jalen Camp. He kind of reminds me of early Demaryius. Just needs to put it all together.

 

[tmhunter52]

Tech has always done more with less. Let’s hope that continues this season.

 

[AE 87]

OK, I'll say it once and drop it. Our QN TaQuon (still one name) Marshall. Since he seems to go by Quon, I think either TM or QM would be better abbreviations.

TQM just gives me horrible 80s Total Quality Management flashbacks.

 

[bobongo]

I'm hoping that a healthy Clinton Lynch turns quite a few of those seam/skinny posts over the middle into big plays. They were there for the taking last year and we didn't succeed nearly enough. From what I saw in the spring game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Lynch be our leading receiver next year. Although I do have big hopes for Jalen Camp. He kind of reminds me of early Demaryius. Just needs to put it all together.

Yeah, hoping Jalen Camp busts out but if he doesn't Clinton Lynch may well lead the team in both receiving and rushing.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

This is a very good article on the 2018 Georgia Tech football team from the Orlando Sentinel

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/spo...ootball-rankings-georgia-tech-0530-story.html