Postseason Chances?

SecretAgentBuzz

SecretAgentBuzz

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You say crazy? I say...not so fast. At 12-8 and 4-4 in the ACC with two top 10 wins and quality wins against Clemson, @ NC St, and @VCU...we find ourselves curiously close to the bubble in late January.

What's it going to take? 5 more ACC wins? 6? What about the NIT? What would it take to get into the NIT?

Who would have thought that we could even be having this conversation at this point in the season. Incredible. Go Jackets!
 

lv20gt

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We made the NIT last year with 8 wins and weren't close to being left out iirc, although I could be wrong. I think 3 more gets us in the NIT, and 4 more gets us in the NCAA because of the two top 10 wins.

I don't think it's crazy to talk postseason chances. With the way we have played in ACC play so far I'd argue that we SHOULD make at least the NIT and have a pretty good shot at the NCAAT. The front half of our ACC schedule is much tougher than the back half and we'll go at worst 4-5 against it.

Man what a year.
 
BleedingGold

BleedingGold

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Go .500 in ACC play, the rest of the year, plus a W against Tusculum puts us at 18-13 (9-9). At that point, we're a lock for the NIT and on the bubble. Only problem I see is that the first half of our ACC schedule was very top heavy, and while wins against UNC, FSU, and hopefully ND would go along way, losses to bottom tier teams like BC, Wake, and Pitt would hurt. Basically, I think we need to do better than .500, which probably sounded crazy a few hours ago, but the way these guys are playing, I feel like we have a chance in every game. Take it one game at a time, starting with ND on Saturday. If we win that one, I think we'll definitely begin to heat up the discussion.
 
CuseJacket

CuseJacket

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ZacketJacket said:
Syracuse was a 10-seed last year with a 9-9 conference record. In the words of Nick Selby, we can do that.
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Quoting this from the ACC discussion thread. This is a good benchmark. Syracuse scraped its way into the tournament at 9-9 in the ACC.
  • Marquee wins were @ Duke (tourney #4 seed) and Texas A&M (tourney #3 seed) on a neutral court in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
  • They beat ND at home (tourney #6 seed) and UConn (tourney #9 seed) on a neutral court.
  • Also beat a few lower seeded tourney teams.

So, UNC and FSU are great wins. Both are at home. We have 1-2 more "tourney team" wins @ VCU and home vs Clemson (though there's reason to doubt the latter makes it). Decent enough reason for optimism.

The problem is, while we could "take care of business" the rest of the way going .500, there aren't many tourney teams left to pad our resume. In fact, there may only be 3 more opportunities with home-and-home against ND and our return to Clemson.

So, I think we have to get to 9-9 in the ACC worst case, maybe 10-8, especially with our weak non-conference schedule and lackluster performance at that time. Unfortunately those games count and count just as much.
 

JDjacket

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I think we may need a decent ACC tournament run or for the committee to determine that the ACC is so good that our ACC body of work makes up for our OOC schedule and record.

We played a bad OOC schedule and didn't run through it. Losses to Ohio, UGA, Tennessee and penn state may come back to bite us in the ***

We point to Syracuse as a benchmark and they had 19 wins going into the ACC tournament. We would need to win 7 more to get to that point.

Also, throw in the whole Boeheim suspension in the beginning that was factored into their performance "they would have done better if he was coaching the whole time" thing and it may not be as easy as 4-5 more wins to get in unless we show up in the ACC tournament as well.

Like I said it's possible they decide the ACC is so good that it merits evaluating our teams differently. Add in the "hot" factor that they like and you never know.
 

scotts

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It's great that we are having this discussion since everyone thought we would only win 1 or 2 ACC games.

If we go 10-8 in the ACC then I think we make the Big Dance.
 
jbix80

jbix80

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Another thing to consider is that the committee supposedly examines how teams get better as the years progresses (especially with a new coach and young team). I understand we played some bad teams early on and didn't beat them by much and lost to one of them; however, we are a much different and better team at this point of the year. I think anyone that has watched them can see that. They may consider that if we can do our part and keep winning games.
 
bigsands

bigsands

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Is this really a young team? 3 seniors, a junior, and one dynamic freshman is not a young starting five. Team has definitely grown throughout the season. Very pleasant surprise. I rate as NIT probable. NCAA seems like a real long shout without 20 wins and plus .500 in conference.
 

MikeJackets

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bigsands said:
Is this really a young team? 3 seniors, a junior, and one dynamic freshman is not a young starting five. Team has definitely grown throughout the season. Very pleasant surprise. I rate as NIT probable. NCAA seems like a real long shout without 20 wins and plus .500 in conference.
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I could see this team winning the NIT if they don't make the NCAA Tournament
 

RamblinRed

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Couple of notes. First, Tusculum will not count -they are a Div 2 team, so they do not count toward consideration for either the NCAA or NIT. GT has 10 games left (all ACC) that will constitute their record for post-season.

Second, the NCAA has only taken 7 teams with 14 losses since expanding and none in the last few years. That would suggest a 6-4 ACC record would be needed the rest of the way to get serious consideration (that would put GT at 18-12 going into the ACC Tourney).

I think 4-5 more wins gets an NIT bid, 6-7 more wins gets an NCAA bid, anything less than that will not get to postseason.

But GT has a good profile for a bubble team. Currently 2-3 against the RPI Top 25, 4-5 against the RPI Top 50 (NC ST is currently at 55 so that may help as well). A couple of good road wins. If it can just win enough games it will have a good profile. GT played a very weak OOC schedule (5 games against teams 250 or worse) and that is hurting it.
 

ramblinwreck1378

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RamblinRed said:
Couple of notes. First, Tusculum will not count -they are a Div 2 team, so they do not count toward consideration for either the NCAA or NIT. GT has 10 games left (all ACC) that will constitute their record for post-season.

Second, the NCAA has only taken 7 teams with 14 losses since expanding and none in the last few years. That would suggest a 6-4 ACC record would be needed the rest of the way to get serious consideration (that would put GT at 18-12 going into the ACC Tourney).

I think 4-5 more wins gets an NIT bid, 6-7 more wins gets an NCAA bid, anything less than that will not get to postseason.

But GT has a good profile for a bubble team. Currently 2-3 against the RPI Top 25, 4-5 against the RPI Top 50 (NC ST is currently at 55 so that may help as well). A couple of good road wins. If it can just win enough games it will have a good profile. GT played a very weak OOC schedule (5 games against teams 250 or worse) and that is hurting it.
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Good points here. Another thing working in favor of GT right now is the perceived strength of the ACC. Many have called this the strongest/deepest league they've seen in a while; I personally think that it's deep but lacks that elite team or two, which is kind of a microcosm of the NCAA this year. I have seen some say they would take a 10th or even 11th team out of the ACC over a 4th team in the SEC, which tells you a lot about both conferences.

If you want to map out a road to 6 more wins to get us in the discussion Red mentioned, here are my thoughts.

ND - Fence L
@Clem - Fence L
@Wake - Fence W
BC - W
@Miami - Fence L
Cuse - Fence W
NCSU - Fence W
@ND - L
Pitt - Fence W
@Cuse - Fence L

We'd need a couple of the "Fence" games to go our way to push to the 6 (most likely and helpful candidate would be this Saturday vs. ND).

Bottom line is the fact that we're even talking about a tourney team at this point is pretty amazing. Let's enjoy the ride and keep things in perspective as we move down the stretch.
 

mstranahan

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I am still in shock that we're having this conversation given my expectations for the season. I think NIT is almost a certainty (unless we have a major injury or revert to our early December form) and NCAA is s stretch but it's actually possible. Lots of things have to happen, but I never ever thought we'd be talking about this. Wow. Just wow
 
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