Postseason Chances?

JDjacket

Ramblin' Wreck
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626
RamblinRed said:
GT has to win Saturday and then win at least once and preferably twice to have a shot.

FWIW, with Wake winning last night that guarantees GT will either be 9th (with a win) or 11th (with a loss) seed in the ACC Tourney. GT cannot get the 10 seed.
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If wake beats VT and we beat Cuse that would make us the 10 seed? We'd have the tie breaker over Cuse making them the 11 and wake won the only head to head with us? Or are the tie breakers take something else into account
 
jeffgt14

jeffgt14

We don't quite suck as much anymore.
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RamblinCharger said:
Whatever man. You can keep wearing those gold colored glasses if you want. They've been more consistent ALL year. That Villanova loss is probably their worst loss. They've lost a lot of close games to decent teams in the ACC. So have we, but they didn't lose to teams like UGA, Tenn, Penn state, and Ohio. They've been better from start to finish. And yeah that win against Louisville counts. They also beat us. Could we beat them at home? Yeah probably, but they've been more consistent weather we like it or not.
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It's the same problem I have with Football, it's not about who you beat it's about who you lose to. 2 teams with nearly identical records and 1 is 54 RPI spots ahead of the other because outside of Louisville last night, they lost to everyone they were supposed to and beat everyone they were supposed to whereas we beat several teams we weren't supposed to and lost to teams we weren't supposed to.

If that makes them more "consistent" that's fine but to say they're 54 teams ahead of us with nearly identical records is a bit of a stretch. I'm not saying we're better than them I'm just trying to argue we should be a lot closer to equals. The reward for beating good teams is nowhere close to the punishment for losing to a bad team.
 

RamblinRed

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The way the RPI is structured you can game it through scheduling. The key is to not play many games against teams below about 225 in RPI. Those teams cost you spots just by playing them. Our OOC was pretty weak. We played 5 games against teams below 225 - including 2 below 300 and had 2 more against teams between 190-200.

Wake played 3 games with teams between 225-250 and no games against anyone below 250. UGA played 2 games with teams between 250-300 and 1 between 180-200.
Each game you play against a team below 225 costs you from 5-10 spots in the RPI. So if you play 3-4 more games against those teams than others you have cost yourself probably 20-25 spots relative to other teams.

if we had played a tougher schedule and won those games we likely would be a good 20 spots higher in the RPI, but on the flip side given how we looked early in the season we likely would have lost at least 1 of them which would have put us in a similar spot or worse as we really have too many losses already.
 
BleedingGold

BleedingGold

Jolly Good Fellow
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194
RamblinRed said:
The way the RPI is structured you can game it through scheduling. The key is to not play many games against teams below about 225 in RPI. Those teams cost you spots just by playing them. Our OOC was pretty weak. We played 5 games against teams below 225 - including 2 below 300 and had 2 more against teams between 190-200.

Wake played 3 games with teams between 225-250 and no games against anyone below 250. UGA played 2 games with teams between 250-300 and 1 between 180-200.
Each game you play against a team below 225 costs you from 5-10 spots in the RPI. So if you play 3-4 more games against those teams than others you have cost yourself probably 20-25 spots relative to other teams.

if we had played a tougher schedule and won those games we likely would be a good 20 spots higher in the RPI, but on the flip side given how we looked early in the season we likely would have lost at least 1 of them which would have put us in a similar spot or worse as we really have too many losses already.
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It sucks that the our OOC scheduling very well make the difference. Looking at the RPI and the teams that surround us, we should probably be between 40-50. It's not like these teams in front of us are better. Most of them have very mediocre records against the RPI top 25 and 50. You usually see a team like us with such a poor RPI even get considered, but because of some of our wins, we still have a shot. For future scheduling though, Pastner knows the he can't afford to schedule this weak. Think it's pretty obvious he did, so he could get some easy wins considering how bad he thought we would be.
 

RamblinRed

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Alot of this year's schedule was set before Pastner got the job.
The expectation was that this was going to be a weak team this season so the scheduling reflects that.
It will ramp up over time.
 

mstranahan

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,554
I hate the new mega ACC and the unbalanced schedule. Not playing everyone twice means some teams get easier schedules than others. Happens every year and it impacts NCAAT chances. Not surprisingly, UNCheat seems to always have a favorable schedule from the ACC. Amazing how that happens when your former AD is the conference commish.

Take a look at who played tough conference teams on the road versus in the friendly confines... Duke has the hardest conference schedule by far and we are #2. Clemson got hosed too. UVA, UNCheat, Pitt & Cuse had relative cakewalks. Wonder how the record and NCAAT chances would look if we had UVA or UNC's friendly schedule?
Games against top 50 RPI teams in ACC
Team / Home / Away
DU 4 8
GT 4 6
WF 4 5
CL 5 7
MIA 5 6
VPI 5 5
LOU 5 5
ND 5 5
NCS 6 6
BC 6 6
FSU 6 5
NC 6 4
SU 6 4
Pitt 7 5
VA 7 4
 
RamblinCharger

RamblinCharger

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jeffgt14 said:
It's the same problem I have with Football, it's not about who you beat it's about who you lose to. 2 teams with nearly identical records and 1 is 54 RPI spots ahead of the other because outside of Louisville last night, they lost to everyone they were supposed to and beat everyone they were supposed to whereas we beat several teams we weren't supposed to and lost to teams we weren't supposed to.

If that makes them more "consistent" that's fine but to say they're 54 teams ahead of us with nearly identical records is a bit of a stretch. I'm not saying we're better than them I'm just trying to argue we should be a lot closer to equals. The reward for beating good teams is nowhere close to the punishment for losing to a bad team.
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You gotta beat bad teams. It just happened that we weren't nearly as good to start the year and lost games we wouldn't lose now, but it happens. I think the RPI is ****, so you won't see me argue with that, but I think they played a harder schedule than us and they're going to end up with the same or possibly a better ACC record. Do I hope we get in over them? Absolutely, but I can see why they are ahead of us because they took care us business against the teams they needed to, and they just got a signature win last night that they needed.
 

BigDaddyBuzz

Helluva Engineer
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1,189
As we all know, tomorrow is huge. A Win will be a big boost to our chances. Here are some other teams to cheer against tomorrow. Who else am I missing:
Wake
ugag
Vandy, Xavier, Marquette, seton hall, providence, K St, TCU, Cal,
 

Gtech50

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
517
I just don't get how a 9-9 ACC team would even be considered being left out over a 9-9 SEC team or teams with an almost identical record in other conferences...9-9 with wins over UNC, Norte Dame, FSU, VCU, Syracuse twice...these other bubble teams could never dream of beating those teams
 

bke1984

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,143
I honestly think it's down to us and Syracuse for the last team from the ACC. The loser of that game will end the ACCT with 15 losses. Winner will only have 14. I don't think you can get in with 15...meaning youd have to win the tournament. If we win we'd have won the two head to head matchups with them, so it'd be easy to say us over them.
 

BigDaddyBuzz

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1,189
bke1984 said:
I honestly think it's down to us and Syracuse for the last team from the ACC. The loser of that game will end the ACCT with 15 losses. Winner will only have 14. I don't think you can get in with 15...meaning youd have to win the tournament. If we win we'd have won the two head to head matchups with them, so it'd be easy to say us over them.
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I agree
 
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