Postseason Chances?

[jeffgt14]

I honestly think it's down to us and Syracuse for the last team from the ACC. The loser of that game will end the ACCT with 15 losses. Winner will only have 14. I don't think you can get in with 15...meaning youd have to win the tournament. If we win we'd have won the two head to head matchups with them, so it'd be easy to say us over them.

Wake is one win away from clinching the last spot regardless of what happens tomorrow. I don't really think we're fighting against any other bubble team. The last ACC spot will be taken by either Wake, Cuse or GT. If Wake beats VT, they're in unless Cuse or GT wins 2 games in the ACCT. Then there may be 10 teams in. Wake loses, then it'll most likely still be Wake unless the winner of our game can win at least 1 more in the ACC tournament. Honestly the only way I see Wake not making it now is if they lose their next 2. Another reason why I think we have to beat Cuse, so Wake has to play someone besides BC in the ACCT.

 

[crut]

There is no restriction on how many ACC teams get in... That's not how the selection process works at all... Wake or Syracuse getting in doesn't hurt GT any more than USC or Marquette getting in.

We are most fighting for a spot against several other teams: Vandy, Xavier, USC, Cal (who lost by 30 last night), Rhode Island, Kansas St, Georgia, Illinois, Providence, Marquette, Arkansas, and maybe even Seton Hall and Michigan.

If Syracuse beats us, they are almost definitely in unless they get smashed in their 1st ACC game. If we beat Syracuse, we are probably in, but might need 1 more win. No one that wins tomorrow is going to need 2 ACCT wins to get in.

 

[bke1984]

Wake is one win away from clinching the last spot regardless of what happens tomorrow. I don't really think we're fighting against any other bubble team. The last ACC spot will be taken by either Wake, Cuse or GT. If Wake beats VT, they're in unless Cuse or GT wins 2 games in the ACCT. Then there may be 10 teams in. Wake loses, then it'll most likely still be Wake unless the winner of our game can win at least 1 more in the ACC tournament. Honestly the only way I see Wake not making it now is if they lose their next 2. Another reason why I think we have to beat Cuse, so Wake has to play someone besides BC in the ACCT.

I don't think the Wake game matters all that much. If they win it just means the ACC will get 10 teams. The winner of us and Cuse is probably getting in.

 

[305jacket]

Its simple:
Win vs Cuse, I would put us at 50% if we lost game 1 of tourney vs Miami. If we beat Miami we are close to 90%.
Lose vs Cuse, need at LEAST 3 wins in the ACC Tourney to get to 50%, probably need 4 wins to feel good about getting in.

Overall, chances are around 20% I would put it.

Looking at about 15 teams on the bubble for 8 spots.

 

[awbuzz]

If we beat Syracuse, our biggest opponents to get to the big dance will be mid-major teams that are upset winner in their conference tournaments that end up taking a slot away from current bubble teams due to the fact that their conference's regular season champion will get an at large invitation. (I could have made the sentence longer, but figured that I didn't need to do so.)

 

[dtm1997]

If we beat Syracuse, our biggest opponents to get to the big dance will be mid-major teams that are upset winner in their conference tournaments that end up taking a slot away from current bubble teams due to the fact that their conference's regular season champion will get an at large invitation. (I could have made the sentence longer, but figured that I didn't need to do so.)

The good news is there are very few of these (I can think of about 5 at most), but that said, we really need to get some wins to avoid that situation.

 

[McCamish Maniacs]

The way the RPI is structured you can game it through scheduling. The key is to not play many games against teams below about 225 in RPI. Those teams cost you spots just by playing them. Our OOC was pretty weak. We played 5 games against teams below 225 - including 2 below 300 and had 2 more against teams between 190-200.

Wake played 3 games with teams between 225-250 and no games against anyone below 250. UGA played 2 games with teams between 250-300 and 1 between 180-200.
Each game you play against a team below 225 costs you from 5-10 spots in the RPI. So if you play 3-4 more games against those teams than others you have cost yourself probably 20-25 spots relative to other teams.

if we had played a tougher schedule and won those games we likely would be a good 20 spots higher in the RPI, but on the flip side given how we looked early in the season we likely would have lost at least 1 of them which would have put us in a similar spot or worse as we really have too many losses already.

And that's the major flaw with RPI and what killed us this year. At the end of the day, what's the difference between playing 275 and 200?

 

[orientalnc]

And that's the major flaw with RPI and what killed us this year. At the end of the day, what's the difference between playing 275 and 200?

I don't agree with this. Playing good teams ought to count for something. Having a 13-0 OOC record sounds better than 7-6, but the 7-6 team might be a 20 point better team than the one with a 13-0 record. Some of us are unhappy that the RPI undervalues (in our mind) our team because of the weak OOC schedule we played. But I bet we would be royally pissed if the roles were switched and we were the team with strong opponents and an average W/L record. Wake deserves to be where they are.

 

[McCamish Maniacs]

I don't agree with this. Playing good teams ought to count for something. Having a 13-0 OOC record sounds better than 7-6, but the 7-6 team might be a 20 point better team than the one with a 13-0 record. Some of us are unhappy that the RPI undervalues (in our mind) our team because of the weak OOC schedule we played. But I bet we would be royally pissed if the roles were switched and we were the team with strong opponents and an average W/L record. Wake deserves to be where they are.

What does this have to do with what I said? Point is that the 200 and 275 team are both terrible and both should be easy wins, but one gives you a far bigger boost in the metrics.

 

[BigDaddyBuzz]

Down goes Illinois

 

[lauraee]

I really want to see candy & no balls drew go down

 

[lauraee]

Florida looking awful. Can't imagine many sec teams make it out of the first weekend of the ncaa.

 

[lauraee]

So happy ark is beating ugag...it'd be so ****ing awful if ugag made it into the dance

 

[jeffgt14]

Not sure I want Nike as a uniform supplier anymore. They can't supply Florida with any size jersey besides smedium.

 

[KeystoneJacket]

Florida blew a double digit second half lead at Vandy. A lot of pundits saying Vandy is in with a win, but they'll have 15 losses if they don't win the SECT.

 

[awbuzz]

... short of winning 3 or the whole thing in the ACC Tournament, it appears the post season will be via the NIT.

 

[Milwaukee]

Need at least 2 in the ACCT most likely. We had our shots vs NC State and ND to put ourselves in a great situation.

 

[dtm1997]

We need to do a lot of work next week to make the NCAAs, but regardless, this season has been a blast and these kids & staff have done a great job.

In NIT bracketology, NYC Buckets has us as a 2 seed against UCF, which would scare the **** out of me going up against Tacko Fall. This is as of yesterday, but they have some weird teams listed as bubble teams.
http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/

Bracket Matrix hasn't been updated since early this week and they have us as a 4 in the NIT.
http://bracketmatrix.com/nit

 

[RyanS12]

So we are the 11 seed playing Pitt? with VT or UVA Wednesday? I'm really hoping we get VT if we get past Tuesday's game. That could be 2 wins. The 3 seed is FSU and we've beaten them before. 2 wins we are sweating it out Sunday. 3 I think we're in.

 

[lauraee]

Good for wake big win & they should be a lock.