Be that as it may, hindsight aside, I remember the reason for Collins’ 7-year contract was that it could take at least that long to complete the greatest rebuild in the history of college sports.
Now, we find ourselves with a team that went 3-9 for 3 years, and then went to 5-7 in year 4 (under an interim HC). Which makes me wonder - had a different HC been hired, what would be the timeline we would have expected to get us back to a bowl game (& beyond)?
I imagine (but have no hard data) some who wanted an outside HC candidate would have considered 3 years a reasonable timeframe. For me, that timeframe is understandable for most new HCs, as they try and implement their systems and get their recruits in.
So a challenge for all of us - given Brent Key’s success on the field this year, are we able to give him the same timeframe as we would give a new HC hired from another program? I personally think we should afford him that same leeway, as hard as that may be, as he’s now building his own system out from under someone else’s.
If not, why not?
Year three is when I would have the solid expectation (barring injuries or unforeseen issues) of a bowl game. I think we could certainly out perform those expectations, but I'm not going to be calling for Key's head unless we go back to looking inept like we did under Collins (I don't think this is going to be an issue). My rationale is below
Next year's schedule include Ole Miss and UGA again. I expect to be more competitive than we were this year against Ole Miss, but expecting a win would be much. Add in Clemson and my guess is 95% chance that we are 0-3 from them
South Carolina State and bowling green: should be wins so 2-3
Boston College, UVA, Miami, Wake, Louisville, Syracuse: I would hope we at least go 3-2
North Carolina: They have been the better team on paper two years in a row, and I don't see that changing. Would be nice to get a win.
So I expect 5-7 next year, with 7-5 being not out of reach depending on how well the team gels. In 2024 we replace Ole Miss with ND, so the OOC isn't any easier. We also get Pitt and FSU which makes the non-pod schedule a bit harder.
By year three, I expect us to be bowling as it'll be year three and the schedule is (at this moment today) easier by a fair margin.
Colorado, Gardner-Webb, Temple, UGA, Duke, Lousiville, Miami, Virginia, BC, Clemson, North Carolina, Wake