I am mainly with Boomer and I really don't bother getting involved making predictions. Rather, I try and kind of work out a probabilistic 'range" (to use a term Tech alums would understand) based on the "domain" of data points. I like to keep things pretty abstract or impressionistic.
Last year was a very special team with incredible senior leadership. Let's just look at the regular season. Of the 10 wins, 3 were decided by 6 points or less (one in OT and two in last minute) and both losses were decided by 6 points or less, 1 lost in the last minute (more or less). Some will try and be an optimist with that set of data points and say "we could have easily been undefeated." Others will be pessimistic and say "we easily could have been 7-5."
Next, I look at the evidence of CPJ as Tech coach and the offensive output of his system over the years (always excellent). Then looking at the loss of 5th year seniors, etc., I assume that the offense might be as or just about as efficient as last years (which was historically good) but is not highly likely to perform better. On defense I think the lack of turnover and possible addition of new pieces , etc., suggests that it is fairly or pretty likely to improve. These two aspects combine to in my mind mean a net stability/equivalence to last year's performance qua "team" is decently likely. Especially when I also think the special teams units stand a good chance of improvement.
Then I look at the schedule. Notre Dame on road replaces Southern at home (net tougher-but maybe only slightly?); Clemson on road tougher than in ATL; FSU at home instead of NC State on the road is net tougher; UVA on road after playing FSU at home is net tougher; Miami on the road but after a bye . . . ehh; UGA week after trip to Miami makes it a tougher home game; and the others are net wash or easier in my opinion than last year's games/equivalents. Overall, net slightly tougher to tougher schedule. I can see how it can be considered a top 15 in difficulty as of today.
Ok, now I put it all together. Last year's team played 42% of their games "close" (5/12) and blew out the competition in the remaining 58% of games. This year's team seems to me to be as good to almost as good before playing a snap. The schedule seems slightly tougher at least. So I think a probable range could be something like 50-58% close contests and 42-50% blowout wins. That means 6-7 close games and 5-6 blowout wins. Last year's team won 60% of the close games. So this years could equal that or do slightly worse, meaning 3-5 wins in this category.
Result: I am expecting Tech, at this point, to play out next season in the range of 8-10 wins and 2-4 losses. I will be mildly disappointed in the lower end of results and very pleased at the higher end.
But, again like Boomer, injuries, midterms, kids stepping up, kids fizzling out, "lucky" bounces and turnovers, officiating, and all sorts of other unknown variables will determine how the games actually play out. Which ones are close wins and which ones are close losses and how they end up that way will also color the perception of the season.
However, anything in my range no matter who against or how the games were played, will be a good follow-up to 2014 in my book.
