Path to the NCAA Tournament.

[sidewalkGTfan]

First step is to beat UVA on Saturday. Check that box and then focus on next game. Repeat.

I'll be there on Saturday, cheering for the win. Was there for ND too and thought we were going to pull it out. (Had money on us at -2.5 so it sucked doubly to lose)

We've been rotating wins and losses for the last 8 games, so this one should be a win.

 

[MWBATL]

We've been rotating wins and losses for the last 8 games, so this one should be a win.

Now you've gone and done it...that's the kiss of death....

 

[g0lftime]

This team is actually pretty good on defense. Our chronic problems seem to be turnovers, poor outside shooting and not finishing at the rim. At times we are decent in those but they keep popping up too often when we have chances to win. We hardly ever, if at all, foul anyone out on the opposing team. Not drawing contact?

 

[MiracleWhips]

This team is actually pretty good on defense. Our chronic problems seem to be turnovers, poor outside shooting and not finishing at the rim. At times we are decent in those but they keep popping up too often when we have chances to win. We hardly ever, if at all, foul anyone out on the opposing team. Not drawing contact?

I believe Wes and Durham noted that we get the least amount foul calls for us in the acc

 

[GTbball2016]

Biggest issue is we have been awful offensively down the stretch in a lot of these games

 

[ESPNjacket]

I believe Wes and Durham noted that we get the least amount foul calls for us in the acc

Both Wes and Durham?

 

[MiracleWhips]

Both Wes and Durham?

HAHAHA I’ll take the heat on this one.

 

[gtpi]

I believe Wes and Durham noted that we get the least amount foul calls for us in the acc

isnt that a coaching issue?

 

[GT_EE78]

So with the recent surge in good play by the team, I decided to look into what exactly would it take to make the NCAAT

We are currently sitting at 8-8 (3-3) with 15 games left, 14 of them conference games. We will also get, assuming post season play, at least 1 game in the ACCT.

Looking back here are the records of the at large bigs with the lowest wins the past couple of years.

2019 Baylor (19-13), UF (19-15), Oklahoma (19-13), Ohio State (19-14)
2018 - Bama (19-15), Oklahoma (18-13)
2017 - Marquette (19-12), Vandy (19-15), Wake (19-13)
2016 - Vandy (19-13), Oregon State (19-12), TT (19-12), Cuse (19-13)

So 19 wins seems to pretty much be the floor. Meanwhile the NIT has seen several P5 teams with ~19 or so wins be in there so it isn't a given, and even 22-11 NCSU wound up there last year.

We could probably look in and see the SOS and quality wins of those who made it with 19 and compare it with what we have but lets leave it that we almost certainly need 19 just to have a chance, and likely 20 to get in.

FWIW the teams that made it last year had RPIs of 59, 58, 39, 73 as of the sunday before the NCAAT. Year before that was 39, and 51. Our current RPI rank is 59, and our projected is 77. Obviously we need to take everything with a grain of salt but we probably all can see that we have work to be done and have a good bit to prove before the end of the year. FWIW it seems the NCAA now uses something called the NET rankings that currently has us 86th.

IMO what we probably need to shoot for is 19-12 in the regular season with 1 win in the NCAAT. Our schedule left with their NET rank is...

ND (87)
UVA (73)
@UL (14)
NCSU (55)
Morehouse (NA)
@ND (87)
VT (38)
@Pitt (74)
UL (14)
@Wake (105)
@Cuse (85)
Clemson (92)
Miami (82)
Pitt (74)
@Clemson (92)

Bold are the games that would currently be considered good wins. We currently have 1 (@NCSU). I'd say the UL home game is really big and a win there would go a long way towards making the NCAAT. Basically I think we pretty much have to hold serve at home (9 wins), and 2 on the road. I'm actually not sure which is harder at this point because we've probably played better away from home in ACC play than at it. We should probably be rooting for Cuse, Clemson, and Pitt when they aren't playing us, as it could go a long way if we beat them on the road and they end up in the top 75.

The last thing to consider is if we do finish at 19-12 (13-7 in conference) that could have us finishing in the top 4 in the ACC subject to a double bye in the ACCT. 65% of 18 is 11.7 (to compare finish of the conference in years past), and here are some of the records of teams who have finished in the top 4 in the ACC.

2019 - 13-5 FSU so not last year.
2018 - 11-7 finished third through 6th
2017 - 12-6 was and through 3rd.
2016 - 12-6 was 4th.
2015 - 12 -6 was 4th
104 - 13-5 was 4th.

So most likely 13-7 will probably be 5th or 6th, but there is a chance that it gets to 4th. I'm not sure how that would help us, as getting an extra game might be the difference, especially if we end up playing the 4 seed in game 2.

In any case, I'd say we can lose no more than 4 more regular games and have much of a chance of making the NCAAT.

accurate enough for what it would take, but you didn't address the probability ....
at this point its hard to see anything more than a 1-2% chance ... u think higher?

 

[g0lftime]

Win the ACC tournament. That's it.

 

[RamblinRed]

At this point if we aren't withdrawing our appeal of the post season ban we are being stupid. If we could have won even 2 more games i'd wouldn't be saying that as our power ratings and NET are not bad given our record. But this team can't seem to win close games. Better to take our punishment in a year when it is clear we aren't going to win enough games.

I'm sure the ACC is going to want to know soon whether we are taking the ban or not as it affects our eligibility to play in the ACC Tourney.

 

[GT_EE78]

Is the long shot chance of an ACCT run worth continuing the post season ban appeal?
I'd think chances are getting higher that it could send players into the transfer portal.

 

[Connell62]

At this point if we aren't withdrawing our appeal of the post season ban we are being stupid. If we could have won even 2 more games i'd wouldn't be saying that as our power ratings and NET are not bad given our record. But this team can't seem to win close games. Better to take our punishment in a year when it is clear we aren't going to win enough games.

I'm sure the ACC is going to want to know soon whether we are taking the ban or not as it affects our eligibility to play in the ACC Tourney.

Is that a possibility? I wonder if that would viewed negatively by the NCAA or hurt our case on the other appeals.