Path to the NCAA Tournament.

lv20gt

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So with the recent surge in good play by the team, I decided to look into what exactly would it take to make the NCAAT

We are currently sitting at 8-8 (3-3) with 15 games left, 14 of them conference games. We will also get, assuming post season play, at least 1 game in the ACCT.

Looking back here are the records of the at large bigs with the lowest wins the past couple of years.

2019 Baylor (19-13), UF (19-15), Oklahoma (19-13), Ohio State (19-14)
2018 - Bama (19-15), Oklahoma (18-13)
2017 - Marquette (19-12), Vandy (19-15), Wake (19-13)
2016 - Vandy (19-13), Oregon State (19-12), TT (19-12), Cuse (19-13)

So 19 wins seems to pretty much be the floor. Meanwhile the NIT has seen several P5 teams with ~19 or so wins be in there so it isn't a given, and even 22-11 NCSU wound up there last year.

We could probably look in and see the SOS and quality wins of those who made it with 19 and compare it with what we have but lets leave it that we almost certainly need 19 just to have a chance, and likely 20 to get in.

FWIW the teams that made it last year had RPIs of 59, 58, 39, 73 as of the sunday before the NCAAT. Year before that was 39, and 51. Our current RPI rank is 59, and our projected is 77. Obviously we need to take everything with a grain of salt but we probably all can see that we have work to be done and have a good bit to prove before the end of the year. FWIW it seems the NCAA now uses something called the NET rankings that currently has us 86th.

IMO what we probably need to shoot for is 19-12 in the regular season with 1 win in the NCAAT. Our schedule left with their NET rank is...

ND (87)
UVA (73)
@UL (14)
NCSU (55)
Morehouse (NA)
@ND (87)
VT (38)
@Pitt (74)
UL (14)
@Wake (105)
@Cuse (85)
Clemson (92)
Miami (82)
Pitt (74)
@Clemson (92)

Bold are the games that would currently be considered good wins. We currently have 1 (@NCSU). I'd say the UL home game is really big and a win there would go a long way towards making the NCAAT. Basically I think we pretty much have to hold serve at home (9 wins), and 2 on the road. I'm actually not sure which is harder at this point because we've probably played better away from home in ACC play than at it. We should probably be rooting for Cuse, Clemson, and Pitt when they aren't playing us, as it could go a long way if we beat them on the road and they end up in the top 75.

The last thing to consider is if we do finish at 19-12 (13-7 in conference) that could have us finishing in the top 4 in the ACC subject to a double bye in the ACCT. 65% of 18 is 11.7 (to compare finish of the conference in years past), and here are some of the records of teams who have finished in the top 4 in the ACC.

2019 - 13-5 FSU so not last year.
2018 - 11-7 finished third through 6th
2017 - 12-6 was and through 3rd.
2016 - 12-6 was 4th.
2015 - 12 -6 was 4th
104 - 13-5 was 4th.

So most likely 13-7 will probably be 5th or 6th, but there is a chance that it gets to 4th. I'm not sure how that would help us, as getting an extra game might be the difference, especially if we end up playing the 4 seed in game 2.

In any case, I'd say we can lose no more than 4 more regular games and have much of a chance of making the NCAAT.
 

Deleted member 2897

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Pastner is banking on the fact the committee will look at our performance in the second half of the season when we had our full roster. Between us, we are playing materially different and better basketball since then. So the notion of going 13-7 or 12-8 to me seems very reasonable. Coupled with a Morehouse win and we'd finish 5 or 7 games above 0.500. I think we'd be one of the last teams in, but that yes we would get in. If we keep playing the same quality of basketball we have been, we can finish with that record. Boston College being down a couple players was one of those must wins. Up next is last place Notre Dame at home - that's a must win. If we finish at or just above 0.500 in ACC play, I don't think the committee will wipe away the first half of the year. I only think it will matter if we're heavily on the bubble. I think Pastner is dreaming if he thinks otherwise.

On a side note, the last time we finished more than a couple games above 0.500 was 25 years ago. TWENTY FIVE YEARS AGO! So if we finish 12-8 or 13-7 (or better), that will be a major accomplishment and should really give us some momentum into next year. We have a good incoming class and we get most of our players back again.

The key here is we can't have any more Syracuses or Ball States. We just can't.
 

Wrecked

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Messages
567
Agree with iv20gt and bwelbo, 13-7 in conference gets us in, but that basically leaves us no room for error. The losses to UGA Ark and Boise are huge (whether we had a full squad or not we needed two of those games). My fear is we come close, say 12-8 or 11-9, get an ACC tourney win and still get snubbed. Then the appeal is denied, and any momentum we have built up is gone as next year we would serve the post season ban. I understand why we appealed, dont fault Tstan for doing it, but given the circumstances I think I may have just taken the ban this year to free us up for next season.
 

MiracleWhips

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Wrecked said:
Agree with iv20gt and bwelbo, 13-7 in conference gets us in, but that basically leaves us no room for error. The losses to UGA Ark and Boise are huge (whether we had a full squad or not we needed two of those games). My fear is we come close, say 12-8 or 11-9, get an ACC tourney win and still get snubbed. Then the appeal is denied, and any momentum we have built up is gone as next year we would serve the post season ban. I understand why we appealed, dont fault Tstan for doing it, but given the circumstances I think I may have just taken the ban this year to free us up for next season.
Click to expand...
We didn’t lose to Boise st. We lost to Houston. But I don’t think that was a bad loss statistically speaking. I believe someone here said their RPI was 5.
 

Deleted member 2897

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Wrecked said:
Agree with iv20gt and bwelbo, 13-7 in conference gets us in, but that basically leaves us no room for error. The losses to UGA Ark and Boise are huge (whether we had a full squad or not we needed two of those games). My fear is we come close, say 12-8 or 11-9, get an ACC tourney win and still get snubbed. Then the appeal is denied, and any momentum we have built up is gone as next year we would serve the post season ban. I understand why we appealed, dont fault Tstan for doing it, but given the circumstances I think I may have just taken the ban this year to free us up for next season.
Click to expand...

I don’t think you can partially appeal. Part of what we lost was recruiting numbers and visits. That’s damaging with or without post season play. And the ****ing idiot R** B*** sabotaged us on purpose - it was a plan to entrap our players. The NCAA investigator felt so uneasy when speaking to him over the phone they changed their mind and declined to meet with him. He’s an unstable drug addicted psychopath. And yet the NCAA gives us the shaft. The super shaft. Other teams are on wiretaps discussing their paying of players and nothing. Clemson has to fire a coach for being caught on a recorded call discussing how they pay players. Self reported a bunch of stuff. Nothing. **** the NCAA.
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

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If the NCAA hasn't ruled on our appeal by the time we find out if we make to NCAA, then we could always withdraw the appeal for the one year post-season ban and just not go down that road. The question will become what do we do if we get an NIT invite and the NCAA hasn't ruled yet. That will be a decision that could impact next year's NCAA possibilities.
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

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bwelbo said:
I don’t think you can partially appeal. Part of what we lost was recruiting numbers and visits. That’s damaging with or without post season play. And the ****ing idiot R** B*** sabotaged us on purpose - it was a plan to entrap our players. The NCAA investigator felt so uneasy when speaking to him over the phone they changed their mind and declined to meet with him. He’s an unstable drug addicted psychopath. And yet the NCAA gives us the shaft. The super shaft. Other teams are on wiretaps discussing their paying of players and nothing. Clemson has to fire a coach for being caught on a recorded call discussing how they pay players. Self reported a bunch of stuff. Nothing. **** the NCAA.
Click to expand...
We appealed certain aspects of the "punishment" not all of it. We could withdraw parts of our appeal, leaving the rest.
 
Fatmike91

Fatmike91

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Houston is #30 currently in KenPom.
Ball State is #105 currently in KenPom.

We've played the second hardest schedule according to KenPom, that has to help the selection committee.

We just need some wins.

/
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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Fatmike91 said:
Houston is #30 currently in KenPom.
Ball State is #105 currently in KenPom.

We've played the second hardest schedule according to KenPom, that has to help the selection committee.

We just need some wins.

/
Click to expand...

This. At this point, it doesn't matter what games we've won or lost. Can't do anything about it now. Unless you've developed a time machine. You haven't have you... Asking for a friend.

Just win the next game. And the game after that. And take it game by game, week by week. But win the next one!
 
Jmonty71

Jmonty71

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lv20gt said:
So with the recent surge in good play by the team, I decided to look into what exactly would it take to make the NCAAT

We are currently sitting at 8-8 (3-3) with 15 games left, 14 of them conference games. We will also get, assuming post season play, at least 1 game in the ACCT.

Looking back here are the records of the at large bigs with the lowest wins the past couple of years.

2019 Baylor (19-13), UF (19-15), Oklahoma (19-13), Ohio State (19-14)
2018 - Bama (19-15), Oklahoma (18-13)
2017 - Marquette (19-12), Vandy (19-15), Wake (19-13)
2016 - Vandy (19-13), Oregon State (19-12), TT (19-12), Cuse (19-13)

So 19 wins seems to pretty much be the floor. Meanwhile the NIT has seen several P5 teams with ~19 or so wins be in there so it isn't a given, and even 22-11 NCSU wound up there last year.

We could probably look in and see the SOS and quality wins of those who made it with 19 and compare it with what we have but lets leave it that we almost certainly need 19 just to have a chance, and likely 20 to get in.

FWIW the teams that made it last year had RPIs of 59, 58, 39, 73 as of the sunday before the NCAAT. Year before that was 39, and 51. Our current RPI rank is 59, and our projected is 77. Obviously we need to take everything with a grain of salt but we probably all can see that we have work to be done and have a good bit to prove before the end of the year. FWIW it seems the NCAA now uses something called the NET rankings that currently has us 86th.

IMO what we probably need to shoot for is 19-12 in the regular season with 1 win in the NCAAT. Our schedule left with their NET rank is...

ND (87)
UVA (73)
@UL (14)
NCSU (55)
Morehouse (NA)
@ND (87)
VT (38)
@Pitt (74)
UL (14)
@Wake (105)
@Cuse (85)
Clemson (92)
Miami (82)
Pitt (74)
@Clemson (92)

Bold are the games that would currently be considered good wins. We currently have 1 (@NCSU). I'd say the UL home game is really big and a win there would go a long way towards making the NCAAT. Basically I think we pretty much have to hold serve at home (9 wins), and 2 on the road. I'm actually not sure which is harder at this point because we've probably played better away from home in ACC play than at it. We should probably be rooting for Cuse, Clemson, and Pitt when they aren't playing us, as it could go a long way if we beat them on the road and they end up in the top 75.

The last thing to consider is if we do finish at 19-12 (13-7 in conference) that could have us finishing in the top 4 in the ACC subject to a double bye in the ACCT. 65% of 18 is 11.7 (to compare finish of the conference in years past), and here are some of the records of teams who have finished in the top 4 in the ACC.

2019 - 13-5 FSU so not last year.
2018 - 11-7 finished third through 6th
2017 - 12-6 was and through 3rd.
2016 - 12-6 was 4th.
2015 - 12 -6 was 4th
104 - 13-5 was 4th.

So most likely 13-7 will probably be 5th or 6th, but there is a chance that it gets to 4th. I'm not sure how that would help us, as getting an extra game might be the difference, especially if we end up playing the 4 seed in game 2.

In any case, I'd say we can lose no more than 4 more regular games and have much of a chance of making the NCAAT.
Click to expand...
I think the committee looks at things like, the last 10 games and how the team played. How well did a certain team do in their conference tourney. I think they throw other variables into this. Which is why, it leads to some great choices and some really bad choices.
 
Bogey

Bogey

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CINCYMETJACKET said:
This. At this point, it doesn't matter what games we've won or lost. Can't do anything about it now. Unless you've developed a time machine. You haven't have you... Asking for a friend.

Just win the next game. And the game after that. And take it game by game, week by week. But win the next one!
Click to expand...

The only game that matters is the next one.

Sent from my ASUS_Z01RD using Tapatalk
 
smokey_wasp

smokey_wasp

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Messages
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forensicbuzz said:
If the NCAA hasn't ruled on our appeal by the time we find out if we make to NCAA, then we could always withdraw the appeal for the one year post-season ban and just not go down that road. The question will become what do we do if we get an NIT invite and the NCAA hasn't ruled yet. That will be a decision that could impact next year's NCAA possibilities.
Click to expand...

I would withdraw the appeal if it looks like we are NIT bound, personally. As much as I'd love to see us in it, it isn't worth sacrificing another year. We have been in the NIT twice in recent memory,but not the big dance.
 

gt02

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Messages
634
What happens if we make a tourney and lose the appeal after the fact. Are wins deemed vacated?
 
smokey_wasp

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gt02 said:
What happens if we make a tourney and lose the appeal after the fact. Are wins deemed vacated?
Click to expand...

I don't think so. The ban would just take effect next year. The penalties are on hold until our appeal is decided on. They wouldn't be applied retroactively. To have wins vacated this year, we would have to be found to be currently violating rules. We are doing nothing wrong by exercising our right to appeal.
 
Last edited:
Bogey

Bogey

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smokey_wasp said:
I don't think so. The ban would just take effect next year. The penalties are on hold until our appeal is decided on. They wouldn't be applied retroactively. To have wins vacated this year, we would have to be found to be currently violating rules. We are doing nothing wrong by exercising our right to appeal.
Click to expand...
I think the NCAA is waiting and hoping that we make the tournament. Then immediately after tip off in our first game, they will deny our appeal and we will be in violation of their ruling and they will be free to impose even more penalties against us.

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