Path to the NCAA Tournament.

[H-Wade]

Let's go ahead and self impose a postseason ban this year. It would be a shame for us to possibly miss out on an NIT invite next year.

 

[OG-T]

This is not being over dramatic, I think we have the most talented 8-9 roster in the nation. Sure, there a player availability side to story, but our record should not be 8-9. Pastner has to know this is disappointing, and really very unacceptable when this was supposed to be the year with major strides. The responsibility falls on the leader, and Pastber grade is not good.

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

It was already a long shot when I made this post. That was one of the points of it (pointing out that we could lose no more than 4 to have a realistic shot). Losing the game makes the margin of error that much smaller, but considering pulling off one upset, @UL, would probably land us in a better position than if we won tonight and lost there. You might say it's not realistic that we win on the road there and I would say then you haven't been watching basketball this year. Otherwise, other than UL twice the rest of our schedule is beatable. We could also lose to them, but it's not as if we need to lose 3 or less and we have 2 games against UL, 2 against 2, and one against FSU left.

If you think I'm wrong sure, but realistically which games do you think we have almost no chance of winning? At most I see the two UL games, but otherwise the rest are all winnable and since we have shown that we play probably as well on the road as at home, even the games you would normally think would be more difficult, like @Clemson or @Pitt, are still realistic. Now is it a long shot that we win all, or most, of those games because teams play inconsistently, both us and others. But I don't think it's at the write off the season point yet.

I appreciate the optimism and I'm even a little jealous of it but the proof is in the pudding. We are a mediocre team. We're 4-4 since getting our full roster. We turn the ball over at an alarming rate. We don't shoot the 3 ball well or enough. We don't shoot the ball well enough, overall. At this point, I'd be surprised if we finish above .500 in conference play. All of those game you see as "winnable," so does the opposing team.

 

[g0lftime]

The only way this team gets to the NCAA tournament is to win the ACC tournament. Not happening this year.

 

[MWBATL]

I appreciate the optimism and I'm even a little jealous of it but the proof is in the pudding. We are a mediocre team. We're 4-4 since getting our full roster. We turn the ball over at an alarming rate. We don't shoot the 3 ball well or enough. We don't shoot the ball well enough, overall. At this point, I'd be surprised if we finish above .500 in conference play. All of those game you see as "winnable," so does the opposing team.

This. Every single thing in that post is right on. The turnovers in particular drive me nuts......

If I understand the definition correctly, we are rated #288 in the nation (out of 351 teams) in scoring per shots taken...which says we are a lousy shooting team.....then add in our turnover rate and you get a terrible offensive team period.

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

This. Every single thing in that post is right on. The turnovers in particular drive me nuts......

If I understand the definition correctly, we are rated #288 in the nation (out of 351 teams) in scoring per shots taken...which says we are a lousy shooting team.....then add in our turnover rate and you get a terrible offensive team period.

The turnovers are the big killer IMO. In the vast majority of our games, the opponent is getting more shot attempts than we are and that is just magnifying all of the other offensive issues we have, such as not not being a great shooting team and the lack of shooting 3's. If you shaved 5-6 turnovers off a game, our record is probably very different. Long story short, we don't appear to value the basketball and there seems to be a lot of "winging it" on offense.

 

[YlJacket]

I don't think we are winging it - any more than any other ACC team is winging it. We run sets that I can see and generally understand - as much as ND did last night. Most offenses score off the third or so pass/motion and that's what we were doing last night. I totally agree with the TO issue but I think that is due to the fact we are not as athletic/explosive as most of our competition - certainly in the ACC - and we try to do too much from the guards and don't have wing players who can simply create a shot. So things are a lot harder for this group and they try to do too much.

Regardless, we are a mediocre offense at best and if last night didn't close the door on being bubble it sure got the fat lady to go deep into warm ups.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

We can forget about tourney time lol It aint happening.

 

[Buzzbomb]

@YIJACKET ;Regardless, we are a mediocre offense at best and if last night didn't close the door on being bubble it sure got the fat lady to go deep into warm ups.[/QUOTE]


The fat lady has eaten everything off our table, a couple of crumbs fell on the floor, and she’s about ready to wrestle the Dawg for those.

 

[lv20gt]

I appreciate the optimism and I'm even a little jealous of it but the proof is in the pudding. We are a mediocre team. We're 4-4 since getting our full roster. We turn the ball over at an alarming rate. We don't shoot the 3 ball well or enough. We don't shoot the ball well enough, overall. At this point, I'd be surprised if we finish above .500 in conference play. All of those game you see as "winnable," so does the opposing team.

I said that we could lose any of those games as well. This topic really wasn't supposed to be an argument for us making the tournament but rather laying out what we had to do. We had already dug ourselves into a big hole when Jose was out and it was going to be a tall task to lose 4 or less because even playing well other teams can play well enough to have a chance (which is what we saw last night). Now it's a taller task to lose 3 or less for the same reason. I would just prefer their be actual conversation on the board rather than the quagmire of low content posts that it has become.

 

[gte447f]

I said that we could lose any of those games as well. This topic really wasn't supposed to be an argument for us making the tournament but rather laying out what we had to do. We had already dug ourselves into a big hole when Jose was out and it was going to be a tall task to lose 4 or less because even playing well other teams can play well enough to have a chance (which is what we saw last night). Now it's a taller task to lose 3 or less for the same reason. I would just prefer their be actual conversation on the board rather than the quagmire of low content posts that it has become.

I appreciate the thread topic as “this is what it would take for us to make it” not “this is what will probably happen”, so I think it’s been a good discussion. If it were earlier in the season I might still have some optimism that we might actually be able to do it.

 

[ESPNjacket]

I think we've dug too deep of a hole to climb out but there will be some unusually poor resumes that slip in to the tournament this season the way things are going.

 

[lv20gt]

I think we've dug too deep of a hole to climb out but there will be some unusually poor resumes that slip in to the tournament this season the way things are going.

I'm assuming he means in conference play and not overall. We could land around there in conference play there but I still doubt anything less than 19 or maaaaaybe 18 wins gets in as an at large and finishing .500 would only put us at 16 wins total so it would still take a great run in the ACCT to make it happen.

 

[slugboy]

Option A: win about 9 of our remaining 14 and several ACC Tournament games, finding a way to about 19 wins on the season
Option B: just win the entire ACC Tournament

I'm hard pressed to figure out which option is the less statistically likely.

 

[g0lftime]

This team is more likely to make the NIT iff they have a winning record. The only way to the NCAA is to win the ACC tournament as conference champs. We are losing too many home games. Losing last night hurt.

 

[GTpdm]

Option A: win about 9 of our remaining 14 and several ACC Tournament games, finding a way to about 19 wins on the season
Option B: just win the entire ACC Tournament

I'm hard pressed to figure out which option is the less statistically likely.

You forgot Option C: buy them all tickets to the finals...oh, wait that would be an NCAA violation.

Okay, so at the end of the season, we get OBJ to give them all $500 handshakes (with “fake” bills, of course), and let them buy the tickets for themselves. That’s not a violation, is it? (...at least, as long as he doesn’t slap any security guards’ backsides...)

 

[slugboy]

You forgot Option C: buy them all tickets to the finals...oh, wait that would be an NCAA violation.

Okay, so at the end of the season, we get OBJ to give them all $500 handshakes (with “fake” bills, of course), and let them buy the tickets for themselves. That’s not a violation, is it? (...at least, as long as he doesn’t slap any security guards’ backsides...)

Odell is never a violation

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[RamblinCharger]

We aren't very good. It's not happening. We don't move fast enough on offense and the defense seems to have taken a step back. You can't lose to Ball St, UGA, and ARK and expect to make the tourney. Win 2 of those 3 and we would still have an outside shot, but Josh doesn't prepare his guys well enough for play in November. Here's to hoping for next year.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

We aren't very good. It's not happening. We don't move fast enough on offense and the defense seems to have taken a step back. You can't lose to Ball St, UGA, and ARK and expect to make the tourney. Win 2 of those 3 and we would still have an outside shot, but Josh doesn't prepare his guys well enough for play in November. Here's to hoping for next year.

Agree. NIT at best. Drop the appeal, serve your ban and lets get to work on next years team.

 

[mstranahan]

First step is to beat UVA on Saturday. Check that box and then focus on next game. Repeat.

I'll be there on Saturday, cheering for the win. Was there for ND too and thought we were going to pull it out. (Had money on us at -2.5 so it sucked doubly to lose)