Path to the NCAA Tournament.

[RyanS12]

I’ve said I think we can finish 18-13/12-8 acc or 19-12/13-7 acc. Both could/should get us in the NCAAT (if eligible) im just now sure how the committee will view the league this year since it’s down. .500 might not be enough for any team this year.
If we finish With one of those records, we need at least 1 ACCT win to avoid a First Four game in Dayton. Winning the WF, Pitt, Miami N.C. state type games are a must but we have to steal one at home, if not two vs UVA and Louisville.

Ball St hurts, Syracuse looks bad but the Ark game stings the most. The UGA game isn’t looking as bad as it once did and Washington is a legit tournament team and Kentucky is Kentucky. You hear it every year on selection Sunday how the committee looks at having your best player being hurt. I’m curious to see if that comes into play with Jose’s injury.

 

[okiemon]

We appealed certain aspects of the "punishment" not all of it. We could withdraw parts of our appeal, leaving the rest.

And also, do we play in the ACC tourney if we don’t think we’ll get the NCAA bid, or withdraw our appeal and not play in that?


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[MiracleWhips]

And also, do we play in the ACC tourney if we don’t think we’ll get the NCAA bid, or withdraw our appeal and not play in that?


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I’d say we should in order to “self impose”

 

[THWG16]

So with the recent surge in good play by the team, I decided to look into what exactly would it take to make the NCAAT

We are currently sitting at 8-8 (3-3) with 15 games left, 14 of them conference games. We will also get, assuming post season play, at least 1 game in the ACCT.

Looking back here are the records of the at large bigs with the lowest wins the past couple of years.

2019 Baylor (19-13), UF (19-15), Oklahoma (19-13), Ohio State (19-14)
2018 - Bama (19-15), Oklahoma (18-13)
2017 - Marquette (19-12), Vandy (19-15), Wake (19-13)
2016 - Vandy (19-13), Oregon State (19-12), TT (19-12), Cuse (19-13)

So 19 wins seems to pretty much be the floor. Meanwhile the NIT has seen several P5 teams with ~19 or so wins be in there so it isn't a given, and even 22-11 NCSU wound up there last year.

We could probably look in and see the SOS and quality wins of those who made it with 19 and compare it with what we have but lets leave it that we almost certainly need 19 just to have a chance, and likely 20 to get in.

FWIW the teams that made it last year had RPIs of 59, 58, 39, 73 as of the sunday before the NCAAT. Year before that was 39, and 51. Our current RPI rank is 59, and our projected is 77. Obviously we need to take everything with a grain of salt but we probably all can see that we have work to be done and have a good bit to prove before the end of the year. FWIW it seems the NCAA now uses something called the NET rankings that currently has us 86th.

IMO what we probably need to shoot for is 19-12 in the regular season with 1 win in the NCAAT. Our schedule left with their NET rank is...

ND (87)
UVA (73)
@UL (14)
NCSU (55)
Morehouse (NA)
@ND (87)
VT (38)
@Pitt (74)
UL (14)
@Wake (105)
@Cuse (85)
Clemson (92)
Miami (82)
Pitt (74)
@Clemson (92)

Bold are the games that would currently be considered good wins. We currently have 1 (@NCSU). I'd say the UL home game is really big and a win there would go a long way towards making the NCAAT. Basically I think we pretty much have to hold serve at home (9 wins), and 2 on the road. I'm actually not sure which is harder at this point because we've probably played better away from home in ACC play than at it. We should probably be rooting for Cuse, Clemson, and Pitt when they aren't playing us, as it could go a long way if we beat them on the road and they end up in the top 75.

The last thing to consider is if we do finish at 19-12 (13-7 in conference) that could have us finishing in the top 4 in the ACC subject to a double bye in the ACCT. 65% of 18 is 11.7 (to compare finish of the conference in years past), and here are some of the records of teams who have finished in the top 4 in the ACC.

2019 - 13-5 FSU so not last year.
2018 - 11-7 finished third through 6th
2017 - 12-6 was and through 3rd.
2016 - 12-6 was 4th.
2015 - 12 -6 was 4th
104 - 13-5 was 4th.

So most likely 13-7 will probably be 5th or 6th, but there is a chance that it gets to 4th. I'm not sure how that would help us, as getting an extra game might be the difference, especially if we end up playing the 4 seed in game 2.

In any case, I'd say we can lose no more than 4 more regular games and have much of a chance of making the NCAAT.

I think we can go 13-7 and we should beat morehouse with our second string.

 

[THWG16]

in the end that desperation prayer heave at the buzzer by Arkansas may kill us

 

[RyanS12]

in the end that desperation prayer heave at the buzzer by Arkansas may kill us

Hard loss to swallow but Arkansas is 13-2 right now and could very well be a tournament team baring a major let down the last two months.

 

[YlJacket]

We have a lot of assumed wins over teams like Clemson and Pitt. They, and others, seem to have ideas they are going to improve as much as we hope we have

 

[lv20gt]

We have a lot of assumed wins over teams like Clemson and Pitt. They, and others, seem to have ideas they are going to improve as much as we hope we have

I wouldn't say those wins are assumed. I think it's assumed that we have to win those games, at least at home, to have a chance so there isn't much point in talking about them in depth now. We realistically can't lose more than 4, and so that means either holding serve at home, or losing no more than 1. Even if we lose 1 that means we have to go 3-3 on the road the rest of the way which is a tough task. So yeah, we could lose UL, @UL, @Clemson, and @Pitt and win the rest, but that includes UVA at home, @Wake, @Cuse, and @ND. Realistically we likely have to win one of those games to have a chance because despite being down, the ACC has a lot of teams that have the "on any given night" type of potential.

 

[MiracleWhips]

We have a lot of assumed wins over teams like Clemson and Pitt. They, and others, seem to have ideas they are going to improve as much as we hope we have

Very true. This next month of acc ball is gonna be a **** show. I don’t even think ND is as bad as their record shows. We gotta make a statement tmrw

 

[reckrider]

Other than a split with Clemson (because we always do) and Louisville, I’m gonna say we win the rest. This is a good team.

 

[joehamiltonfan14]

I’m really hoping we hear from the NCAA in the next few weeks...I really don’t want the ban pushed another year especially when we should be better next year. Would rather get it over with this year (let’s face it - we are not going to win the appeal. Missouri lost their appeal this year for something really small).

 

[RyanS12]

I’m really hoping we hear from the NCAA in the next few weeks...I really don’t want the ban pushed another year especially when we should be better next year. Would rather get it over with this year (let’s face it - we are not going to win the appeal. Missouri lost their appeal this year for something really small).

I’m with ya. We have a tournament roster 1-7 and I think we’re turning a corner and could be a team that wins a game in the NCAAT but next year we have everyone back minus Banks, but fill his spot with some good size. I’d like to think we’ll be a better team next year but the Acc this year is so down this could be our best shot in a decade to make it!
Really wish we could’ve sat Banks last year but as we’ve seen, who knows which Banks we will get from fame to game.

 

[lv20gt]

I’m really hoping we hear from the NCAA in the next few weeks...I really don’t want the ban pushed another year especially when we should be better next year. Would rather get it over with this year (let’s face it - we are not going to win the appeal. Missouri lost their appeal this year for something really small).

I wouldn't be completely against that. I do hold out hope that timing could be on our side. The NCAA might not want to uphold a post season ban for one team if it comes out in the big ongoing case that several high profile programs were involved in things much worse. The NCAA doesn't want to give out death penalty punishments, or similar, to the more profitable teams, but if we got a ban for what we did then they could be pressured to give other teams more. I could basically see them taking the ban away from us so they could use a 1 year post season ban as the baseline for the worse punishments.

 

[THWG16]

Hard loss to swallow but Arkansas is 13-2 right now and could very well be a tournament team baring a major let down the last two months.

Oh I agree they’re good but we had that game wrapped up

 

[Fatmike91]

Other than a split with Clemson (because we always do) and Louisville, I’m gonna say we win the rest. This is a good team.

Clemson just beat Duke (and UNC). I'd sign up for a split with Clemson and Louisville.

/

 

[lauraee]

If the NCAA makes no ruling it will mean we are eligible this year for the NCAA. In fact the entire topic is built around the idea that we will be eligible because the NCAA doesn't make a ruling.

Going on past history, if we look like we can make it in then the ncaa will deny the appeal.

 

[bke1984]

As much as I want to get excited, we are literally talking about performing better in league play than we have in 25 years. And that means we squeeeeeaak in to the tournament. We have to win both games this week and beat NC state next Saturday. Could happen, I guess...just trying not to get too excited just yet.

If it does then I’m going to wonder how good we could have been with healthy players in the first half.

 

[lv20gt]

As much as I want to get excited, we are literally talking about performing better in league play than we have in 25 years.

And the truth is what we did 25, or even 5, years ago has no bearing on this year. Our record for 2002 doesn't make it any more or less likely we win the games in question.

 

[bke1984]

And the truth is what we did 25, or even 5, years ago has no bearing on this year. Our record for 2002 doesn't make it any more or less likely we win the games in question.

Didn’t have any bearing on the 24 years after that either, yet we still only finished above .500 once. Maybe this is the year, but given how it’s gone it’d surprise the hell out of me

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

It’s a fun to dream but this team ain’t making the Big Dance. It’s almost impossible to make a run when you can’t win on your home court. Better chance we don’t even make the NIT IMO.