Path to the Coastal

[FredJacket]

Plan A: WIN x 8 ACC games!

...but it's always good to have a backup plan.

This week's matchups & desired outcome:
UNC @ Ga Tech: See Plan A
Clemson @ VT: Go Tigers!!
Miami @ Duke: Toss up for now. Duke is 1-0 in ACC... Miami 0-0.
Pitt OOC v Rice
UVA BYE: Rest up to beat Duke next week.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Goes through Atlanta.

 

[Treb1982]

Beat VT at home and pull an upset in either Miami or Clemson ( I prefer Miami). If we beat those two teams I believe we can drop one @ Clemson and another game and still get to the championship game.

Having said that I would just prefer to win the next 8.

 

[305jacket]

I think we want Duke to beat Miami.

 

[jeffgt14]

Yea I’d say we need Duke to win too. 2 conference losses should win the Coastal and, if we are good enough (big if), it could likely be a 3 way tie between US, VT, and Miami. We just need to make sure we win at least 1 between those 2.

 

[Fatmike91]

Miami and Duke have FSU this year. VPI actually has Clemson this year (we get them every year).

The coastal contenders all avoid NC St and Louisville this year.

We get both Wake and Clemson from the Atlantic which, as usual, is the hardest draw.

Duke vs Wake in November may matter (for both teams). Miami looks like it has the easiest schedule.

/

 

[Fatmike91]

I think we want Duke to beat Miami.

Agree. Other than us and FSU, I don't see any other Conf games they aren't strong favorites.

/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Agree with most of this. VPISU and Miami appear to be the two teams we would struggle with the most to beat. So until proven otherwise, we want those 2 to lose as many games as possible. Ultimately, we control our own destiny, so we if we just beat them all, we win. Even if we lose to Clemson, if we win the rest, we'd win any 7-1 head-to-heads.

Miami: @Florida State, home vs VPISU, and possible trap games @Duke.
VPISU: Clemson, @Miami, and possible trap games against Duke and @Virginia.
Duke: Miami, Florida State, @Virginia Tech, and possible trap games @Virginia and @Wake.

Duke seems to me the least likely to win the division based on their schedule alone. So I would lean towards wanting Duke to beat Miami and VPISU. Of those 3, I think Duke is the best chance for a win for us too. Duke to beat Miami/Virginia Tech and still lose to at least Florida State, Wake, etc.

If Miami loses to Florida State and Duke, that is a good thing.
If VPISU loses to Clemson and Duke, that is a good thing.

That puts both with 2 losses. If we lose to Clemson and lose to either of them and they only had 2 losses, we'd lose the head-to-head. Or said in the reverse, we just need to beat those teams, because the head-to-head makes up so much ground. Even if those teams have a shock win against FSU or Clemson and we don't, we still get the head-to-head by beating them.

So I'll say I want Miami to lose to FSU, Duke, and VPISU.
I'll say I want VPISU to lose to Clemson and Duke, and to beat Miami.

Because I think beating VPISU at home is easier than beating Miami on the road.

Of course, it would also be nice if those 3 teams lost brainfart games to folks like Virginia or Wake or whoever.

 

[takethepoints]

My head hurts.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Just to point out also what someone else posted above. With the exception of maybe Miami (FSU), who else has such a wretched annual crossover game as Georgia Tech? I love playing Clemson, but for the last several years, they've averaged 12 wins per season and only 2 losses. If you're Duke your annual crossover game is Wake (LOL), if you're UNC your annual crossover game is NC State (LOL), if you're Virginia Tech your annual crossover game is Boston College (LOLOLOL), if you're Pittsburgh your annual crossover game is Syracuse (LOL), and if you're Virgina your annual crossover game is Louisville. Louisville ain't no easy win, but they usually self destruct enough throughout the season you at least have a reasonable chance.

 

[Jmonty71]

I think we need to win the winnable games. UNC, Wake, UVA
We need to win 2 of 3 out of these. VT, Duke, Miami
Clemson will be Clemson. I don't think we have enough to beat them.
I left Ugag out, as it has no relevance to the ACC.
That puts us at 7-3, going into the Ugag game.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I think we need to win the winnable games. UNC, Wake, UVA
We need to win 2 of 3 out of these. VT, Duke, Miami
Clemson will be Clemson. I don't think we have enough to beat them.
I left Ugag out, as it has no relevance to the ACC.
That puts us at 7-3, going into the Ugag game.

That sounds great on paper, ending at 6-2. But we will need some help to make it if we finish there. For example, lets say the 1 other loss besides Clemson is Virginia Tech. Lets say Virginia Tech loses to Clemson as well. They only have 1 loss and we have 2. Plus they have the head-to-head, so they'd need to lose TWO other games besides Clemson.

Same thing with Miami. Lets say they lose to FSU but beat us. Lets say we only lose to Clemson and Miami. Miami has 1 loss. They'll have to lose TWO other games.

So we just need chaos - we need these teams to brain fart and lose random games to the Virginias, Wakes, Dukes, etc. And we need to take care of our own business.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Agree with most of this. VPISU and Miami appear to be the two teams we would struggle with the most to beat. So until proven otherwise, we want those 2 to lose as many games as possible. Ultimately, we control our own destiny, so we if we just beat them all, we win. Even if we lose to Clemson, if we win the rest, we'd win any 7-1 head-to-heads.

Miami: @Florida State, home vs VPISU, and possible trap games @Duke.
VPISU: Clemson, @Miami, and possible trap games against Duke and @Virginia.
Duke: Miami, Florida State, @Virginia Tech, and possible trap games @Virginia and @Wake.

Duke seems to me the least likely to win the division based on their schedule alone. So I would lean towards wanting Duke to beat Miami and VPISU. Of those 3, I think Duke is the best chance for a win for us too. Duke to beat Miami/Virginia Tech and still lose to at least Florida State, Wake, etc.

If Miami loses to Florida State and Duke, that is a good thing.
If VPISU loses to Clemson and Duke, that is a good thing.

That puts both with 2 losses. If we lose to Clemson and lose to either of them and they only had 2 losses, we'd lose the head-to-head. Or said in the reverse, we just need to beat those teams, because the head-to-head makes up so much ground. Even if those teams have a shock win against FSU or Clemson and we don't, we still get the head-to-head by beating them.

So I'll say I want Miami to lose to FSU, Duke, and VPISU.
I'll say I want VPISU to lose to Clemson and Duke, and to beat Miami.

Because I think beating VPISU at home is easier than beating Miami on the road.

Of course, it would also be nice if those 3 teams lost brainfart games to folks like Virginia or Wake or whoever.

The division will go to whoever is playing the best. Lots of football left, but if we can't beat Miami we are not the "division champion" type of team. We will have some advantage there. They get FSU and then a short prep for us. We need to win games, not back into things because Team A beats Team B and we own the tiebreaker.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

It's simple, just win all our Coastal games. Even if we falter to Clemson, we win the division.

 

[iceeater1969]

It's simple, just win all our Coastal games. Even if we falter to Clemson, we win the division.

My dream season
Then we beat uga and win acc champ and go to Miami.
Somewhere we hear "how will gt play w their starting qb nicked up" At that game we get to hear "These young freshmen qb s are very good in their own way. This is not the gt of old. Now they simply reload and can't be stopped!!"

 

[Southpaw13]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

If we finish with 1 loss, we will absolutely be in the playoff. Because that means we will have 2 wins against top 10 teams (Clemson, Clemson) and possibly a 3rd (georgia), plus 3 more wins against ranked teams of Miami, Virginia Tech, and probably Tennessee/Duke - someone like that will be ranked. Remember, our strength of schedule was top 10.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

No but we might get votes for the top 25.

 

[Fatmike91]

Sort of on the other side of this discussion.... but if we were to win out, with wins over Clemson, UGA, VT, Miami, etc... 10-1 with an overtime loss to a P5 opponent in week 1. If we then go on to beat Clemson a 2nd time or whoever we end up playing in ACCCG... would that put us into the playoff?

Let's have the problem.


/

 

[YJMD]

I wouldn't want to win the coastal with 2 ACC losses. I think this team has more potential than that, but our schedule is tough sledding, we're already a game we should have won down, another cancelled, and having Georgia look like a legit contender with a much softer schedule.