NL EAST 2021

CINCYMETJACKET

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Buzzbomb said:
bravesjournal.us

NL East Preview: 2 weeks to Spring Training - Braves Journal

As of today, the NL East projects to be a very competitive battle. According to FanGraphs Depth Chart projections every team, except perhaps the Marlins, should be firmly in the running. Currently, the Mets are the favorites to win the division, but let’s break it down position by position...
bravesjournal.us bravesjournal.us
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As a Mets fan, I'll believe the Mets are the favorites to win the division when they actually do it. Until then, the favorites are the team that has shown that they can do it.
 
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The NL East have a common theme, good starting pitching. Not sure if the Phillies have enough though?

Brew Crew sign Kolten Wong.
 
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I’d love to see that acquisition. Are we dreaming?
Guess they would have to take Inciarte off Atlanta’s payroll.
Riley, Waters, Wright and Bryce Ball? Cleveland would want to replenish their roster, correct?

Mets......
  • ROTATION: deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, and some combination of Seth Lugo, David Peterson, Steven Matz, and Corey Oswalt… with Noah Syndergaardrehabbing his repaired ulnar collateral ligament until mid-year.
  • BULLPEN: Largely unchanged so far: Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, and Miguel Castro are the main arms.
  • CATCHERS: Still expecting changes here (after signing James McCann)
  • INFIELD: Alonso, McNeill, Lindor, and probably J.D. Davis.
  • OUTFIELD: Smith, Conforto, and Nimmo in some arrangement.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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Buzzbomb said:
I’d love to see that acquisition. Are we dreaming?
Guess they would have to take Inciarte off Atlanta’s payroll.
Riley, Waters, Wright and Bryce Ball? Cleveland would want to replenish their roster, correct?

Mets.....
  • ROTATION: deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, and some combination of Seth Lugo, David Peterson, Steven Matz, and Corey Oswalt… with Noah Syndergaardrehabbing his repaired ulnar collateral ligament until mid-year.
  • BULLPEN: Largely unchanged so far: Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, and Miguel Castro are the main arms.
  • CATCHERS: Still expecting changes here (after signing James McCann)
  • INFIELD: Alonso, McNeill, Lindor, and probably J.D. Davis.
  • OUTFIELD: Smith, Conforto, and Nimmo in some arrangement.
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A little out of date Buzz. Traded Matz to the Jays, so:

Rotation: deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, Peterson, Joey Lucchesi (trade from Padres/Pirates) - still reading rumors about Odorizzi, Paxton, or Taijuan Walker as possible additions also.

Other potentials: Syndergaard (if he makes it back), Jordan Yamamoto, Sam McWilliams

Bullpen: Diaz, Lugo, May, Familia, Castro, Betances, Gsellman, Aaron Loup, Brad Brach

Other potentials (rotation/bullpen): Thomas Szapucki, Drew Smith, Jacob Barnes, Stephen Tarpley, Oswalt (had high hopes for him a couple years ago, but see him as a middle reliever/spot starter at this point), Daniel Zamora, Riley Gilliam, Sean Reid-Foley & Yennsy Diaz (both from Matz trade), Franklyn Kilome, Jerry Blevins (welcome back on a minor league contract!)

Catcher: McCann, Tomas Nido, Ali Sanchez/Patrick Mazeika (don't expect anything more here)

Infield: Alosnso/Smith (depending on DH), McNeill, Lindor, JD Davis, Luis Guillorme as super sub - could use a little depth here...

Outfield: Conforto (RF), Nimmo (CF), Smith/Davis/??? (LF). Have Guillermo Heredia as backup CF and Jose Martinez as backup LF\RF at the moment, but JBJ would clearly upgrade this outfield to Conforto - JBJ - Nimmo. MAKE IT HAPPEN!

I still think the Braves are the team to beat.
 
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CINCYMETJACKET said:
A little out of date Buzz. Traded Matz to the Jays, so:

Rotation: deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, Peterson, Joey Lucchesi (trade from Padres/Pirates) - still reading rumors about Odorizzi, Paxton, or Taijuan Walker as possible additions also.

Other potentials: Syndergaard (if he makes it back), Jordan Yamamoto, Sam McWilliams

Bullpen: Diaz, Lugo, May, Familia, Castro, Betances, Gsellman, Aaron Loup, Brad Brach

Other potentials (rotation/bullpen): Thomas Szapucki, Drew Smith, Jacob Barnes, Stephen Tarpley, Oswalt (had high hopes for him a couple years ago, but see him as a middle reliever/spot starter at this point), Daniel Zamora, Riley Gilliam, Sean Reid-Foley & Yennsy Diaz (both from Matz trade), Franklyn Kilome, Jerry Blevins (welcome back on a minor league contract!)

Catcher: McCann, Tomas Nido, Ali Sanchez/Patrick Mazeika (don't expect anything more here)

Infield: Alosnso/Smith (depending on DH), McNeill, Lindor, JD Davis, Luis Guillorme as super sub - could use a little depth here...

Outfield: Conforto (RF), Nimmo (CF), Smith/Davis/??? (LF). Have Guillermo Heredia as backup CF and Jose Martinez as backup LF\RF at the moment, but JBJ would clearly upgrade this outfield to Conforto - JBJ - Nimmo. MAKE IT HAPPEN!

I still think the Braves are the team to beat.
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Sorry buddy, a friend sent that to my yahoo email, and I should have read it first.
Thought of you, more than myself and Fred and the gang.

You guys are signing Albert Almora, I hear.

Braves were in preliminary talks with the Rockies, prior to St. Louis getting Arenado.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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Buzzbomb said:
Sorry buddy, a friend sent that to my yahoo email, and I should have read it first.
Thought of you, more than myself and Fred and the gang.

You guys are signing Albert Almora, I hear.

Braves were in preliminary talks with the Rockies, prior to St. Louis getting Arenado.
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No problem, you got the conversation started, which seems to be 3/4 of the battle in all aspects of life these days...

Not terribly excited about the Almora signing, but don't know much about him. Have read conflicting reports as to whether that means we're still in or out on JBJ.

Don't recall whether I've shared these opinions on this board or not in the past, but my biggest disappointment was not getting Springer. From the NYC area (Connecticut, played college ball at UCONN) and would have been a good fit. But based on the analysis of "experts", will likely have to transition to a corner spot in the not too distant future. Reports are that the Mets offered him 6 years for 120-125M. Toronto offered 6 years/150 M. If he doesn't want our offer, I'd rather re-sign home grown players Conforto and Nimmo long term and still need a CF.

As for Bauer, I read that the Mets had more money on the table than the Dodgers. Not disappointed that we missed out on him. If you look at his stats year by year, not that impressive. Great year last year in a short season pitching against the AL and NL Central, which were two of the worst offensive divisions in MLB. Will be curious to see how he does against better competition this year for (hopefully) a full season. I suspect it's not going to be $40M worth based on other players that could have been signed for that money. From a Mets standpoint, I'm looking at 2 or 3 of JBJ, Paxton, Walker, or Odorizzi.

My #1 desire though is to sign Lindor and Conforto to long term deals. Even before the Springer and Bauer signings fell through.
 
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3:45 pm: Even after today’s signing of Almora, the Mets haven’t closed the door on bringing in Jackie Bradley, hears Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (Twitter link).

Hearing the Mets have an interest in Jake Arietta.
 

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Also saw an article on MLB.com with Baseball Prospectus' 2021 PECOTA projections today. They had the NL East as:

1 Mets: 96-66, 77% odds to win division
2 Nationals: 85-77, 10% odds to win division
3 Phillies: 83-79, 7% odds to win division
4 Braves:: 82-80, 5% odds to win division
5 Marlins: 68-94, 0% odds to win division

I'm having a hard time understanding, or believing those projections.
 
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CINCYMETJACKET said:
Also saw an article on MLB.com with Baseball Prospectus' 2021 PECOTA projections today. They had the NL East as:

1 Mets: 96-66, 77% odds to win division
2 Nationals: 85-77, 10% odds to win division
3 Phillies: 83-79, 7% odds to win division
4 Braves:: 82-80, 5% odds to win division
5 Marlins: 68-94, 0% odds to win division

I'm having a hard time understanding, or believing those projections.
Click to expand...
That's way out of line from odds I've seen. Here's fanduel which seems more reasonable to me...
Atlanta +125
NY Mets +145
Washington +600
Philadelphia +850
Miami +3500
 
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FredJacket said:
That's way out of line from odds I've seen. Here's fanduel which seems more reasonable to me...
Atlanta +125
NY Mets +145
Washington +600
Philadelphia +850
Miami +3500
Click to expand...
Something was fishy with a lot of them this year. The Brewers were the heavy favorite on Pecota and the Cardinals after the Arenado trade were picked third and projected to be 81-81. None of that looks right
 
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herb said:
Something was fishy with a lot of them this year. The Brewers were the heavy favorite on Pecota and the Cardinals after the Arenado trade were picked third and projected to be 81-81. None of that looks right
Click to expand...
If I recall correctly they have been super off the past three years on the Braves. However they are weighing some particular factors that penalize the Braves more than other teams in the NL East. Position player depth is probably one of them.
 
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The Royals have announced a three-team deal to acquire outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox. Outfielder Franchy Cordero is part of the return going to Boston, along with righty Josh Winckowski, who’ll come from the Mets. The Boston org also receives three players to be named later, two from Kansas City and one from New York. On their end, the Mets will add K.C. outfield prospect Khalil Lee.
 
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