NCAA Tourney

What are the odds we make the NCAA Tourney?

  • 0- <10%

    Votes: 7 43.8%

  • 10 - <20%

    Votes: 6 37.5%

  • 20 - <40%

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • 40% or greater

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,018
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
GTNavyNuke said:
Miami can't be put ahead of us in a rational world with two sweeps. Their RPI this morning is 61. And they lose RPI points with a win since BC is so bad.

I think that only 6 ACC teams will make the tourney unless a lower seed wins it which could take it to 7.

How you figure the top 6 ACC teams after the ACC tourney is where things could get interesting if we win the next 4. If we don't sweep Duke, the ONLY chance for us is ACC tourney win. For Miami, their only chance now is an ACC Tourney win. IMHO.
Click to expand...
You and I agree. However...I have a very "small" conspiracy theory streak when it comes to "selection" committees. First it would take quite a few unlikely moons aligning: Miami winning out (good conference record) this weekend and beating their lower seed in the ACCT at minimum. Then it opens door for committee to use some subjective rationalizing (specifically...the strong finish mumbo jumbo) to allow Miami and Coach Morris to play in the post-season. I do not think it will happen...but would be an interesting thing to watch.
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
9,888
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
Wow, epic 20 run day. Great win.

We have to win tomorrow to have the chance to make NCAAs without a ACC tourney win. Duke is now down to #21 and we are up to #42. Tomorrow a win would be worth 28 and a loss would lose 24 points. Win and we'd be about 40th in RPI.

40th is not good enough to make the NCAAs. Would have to win 2 or 3 in the ACC tourney I think to get a bid ........
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,018
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Ok...we all seem to agree winning the ACCT is only way to get to NCAA tournament. I think it "may" be possible if Ga Tech is just short of that. Of course, little ol' me has barely any situational awareness regarding the teams on the bubble (or who will be on bubble) along with Ga Tech. But doesn't stop me from guessing. Here is another possible way...

1) Sweep Duke (gets RPI up around #40) ...a sweep of Duke even at home in final series will "look good" to the committee.
2) Win our Pool at ACCT. This would add 2 wins with one over the ACC's regular season champ...a very high RPI team (UNC is higher than Clem...so, maybe we want UNC to be #1 seed??...that would help more)
3) Win on Saturday of ACCT... theoretically, this would be another RPI boosting win.

Other things that would help... Duke (after being swept by GT) turns it around and ends up going deep in ACCT too. Ga Tech joins the top seeds in each of the other 3 pools in the ACCT semi-finals. Bottom line... cannot lose to a lower tier ACC team AND need to win 3 or more games against those top tier ACC teams.

My debbie downer thought... the way be beat Duke yesterday, Duke will come out "pissed" today. Sweeping them and even having chance to see if all that stuff I just wrote will happen is not going to be easy. Go JACKETS!
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,145
FredJacket said:
My debbie downer thought... the way be beat Duke yesterday, Duke will come out "pissed" today. Sweeping them and even having chance to see if all that stuff I just wrote will happen is not going to be easy. Go JACKETS!
Click to expand...

More than that, isn't Duke still in a race to finish in the Top 4 of the ACC? I would think alone would be motivation enough for them to do everything they can today to win (short of burning any pitchers they need for the tourney, that is)
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,018
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Seems a near certainty, ACC is only getting 6 teams in the NCAA tournament. Unless Pitt produces some sort miracle & wins ACCT. I should have looked it up... But wonder last time only 6 from ACC got in.
 
RoosterJacket

RoosterJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
638
Baseball America’s final projections have us as the 4th team in the “Next Four Out” group. That is behind the “First Four Out”, so basically they have us as the 72nd team. Which to me means if we had just gotten one or two more wins on the road vs the likes of Clemson/UNC/UGA/AUB or even UVA/PITT...we may have been able to sneak in. Losses to Mercer/Ga State/Bradley/UCONN/UIC/Va Tech/WF ALL AT HOME definitely did us no favors either. I’m not gonna complain about taking 2/3 vs FSU and Duke in Atlanta.
 

65Jacket

GT Athlete
Messages
1,168
Look
RoosterJacket said:
Baseball America’s final projections have us as the 4th team in the “Next Four Out” group. That is behind the “First Four Out”, so basically they have us as the 72nd team. Which to me means if we had just gotten one or two more wins on the road vs the likes of Clemson/UNC/UGA/AUB or even UVA/PITT...we may have been able to sneak in. Losses to Mercer/Ga State/Bradley/UCONN/UIC/Va Tech/WF ALL AT HOME definitely did us no favors either. I’m not gonna complain about taking 2/3 vs FSU and Duke in Atlanta.
Click to expand...
Looking at this list of teams that I consider blown games, it is stunning. How can we be that bad? Answer: aside from a few, our pitchers are not Div 1 talent.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,145
65Jacket said:
Look

Looking at this list of teams that I consider blown games, it is stunning. How can we be that bad? Answer: aside from a few, our pitchers are not Div 1 talent.
Click to expand...
Did someone mention pitching?

Seriously, I couldn’t agree more. Then you have to ask why? And wonder why we have retained the same pitching coach throughout.....
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,018
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Looking at the ACC teams sort of in a vacuum and how their performance in ACCT impacted their "location" in the NCAA bracket. Big WINNER is FSU... the loser NCST.

FSU - #6 ACC seed (theoretically 'last' of the NCAA bound teams)... 4-0 in ACCT. Champions! ...and end up the #7 overall seed in the big tournament. Will host a super-regional with a win. Going from #6 in the conference to #7 in the overall... not too shabby. [Note to self.... try to win the ACCT]

NCST - #3 ACC seed... 0-2 in ACCT (lost to UVA and the champ, FSU). They barely got a home regional as the "last" team to host (#16). While that may sound "ok"... assuming they manage to win their regional... hey Pack, have a ball in Gainseville against the #1 overall Gators. [Note to self.... don't go 0-2 in ACCT... however, as Ga Tech fan, I wish I could register this complaint for my team]

The other 4 ACC teams:
UNC - #1 ACC seed... 1-1 in ACCT. Slot in at #6 overall in NCAA. [Note to self...try to win ACC regular season]

CLEM - #2 ACC seed... 2-1 in ACCT (lost to champ FSU). Slot in at #10 overall.

DUKE - #4 ACC seed... 1-1 in ACCT (lost to runner-up LOU). Get to travel to Athens where #8 overall UGA hosts.

LOU - #5 ACC seed... 3-1 in ACCT (runner-up). Get to travel to Lubbock where #9 Tx Tech hosts.

Again... in a vacuum;but all this seems about right. I am a little surprised the bump FSU got for winning the tournament... they and UNC are only 2 assured a super-regional with a regional win. Everyone else (should they win) will need a higher seed to lose AND be 'selected' to host a super-regional.

I'd like all the ACC teams to go far in the tournament. Duke coming out of Athens would be big for them....and a good thing, in general. THWG!!
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
9,888
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
I'll actually root for Duke this weekend. But not too strenuously unless it's the Georgia game(s). Kind of funny that D1 baseball's write-up referred to the fluke as "Coach Ks University".

The ACC has a recent history of not doing well in the NCAAs; by that I mean not winning commensurate with their seeding. I hope that changes this weekend!

The ACC conference RPI was 3rd overall; barely beating out American Athletic.
 
dawgbasher

dawgbasher

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
125
Pulling for Stanford to win it all. Local kid from Cambridge HS pitches for them as a freshman. Was 5-1 as a freshman reliever. Unbeknownst to most, he was one of the top two HS pitchers in the state last year and is a lefty. Kid also graduated with a 4.o. Did Tech recruit him? No. Hall certainly knew about him because he had played against his kid many times. Missing on kids like this have put Hall where he is today. One has to really work at recruiting and not just rely on Perfect Game ratings. As a matter fact, I know a Diamond Back MAJOR scout who calls Perfect Game the Perfect Scam.
 

Lagrangejacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
269
GTNavyNuke said:
I'll actually root for Duke this weekend. But not too strenuously unless it's the Georgia game(s). Kind of funny that D1 baseball's write-up referred to the fluke as "Coach Ks University".

The ACC has a recent history of not doing well in the NCAAs; by that I mean not winning commensurate with their seeding. I hope that changes this weekend!

The ACC conference RPI was 3rd overall; barely beating out American Athletic.
Click to expand...

I'll be curious to see how the SEC does this year too, given that they were head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the regular season. Duke already riding the struggle bus, down 4-0 in the 3rd.
 
Top