NCAA Tourney

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Baseball' started by GTNavyNuke, May 13, 2018.

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  1. 0- <10%

    7 vote(s)
    43.8%
  2. 10 - <20%

    6 vote(s)
    37.5%
  3. 20 - <40%

    3 vote(s)
    18.8%
  4. 40% or greater

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    OK, I see limited ways for us to make the NCAA Tourney:
    1) Win the ACC Tourney.
    2) End up in the top 6 in the ACC - I think the ACC will be limited to 6 teams given our conference performance this year.
    3) End up with an RPI in low 30's or better. (49 on Sunday morning).

    These are the MUST wins:
    1) Monday game. If we don't win a single road series, let alone the hit to our RPI from the loss, we don't deserve to go to the NCAAs.
    2) AND win the Duke series. Sweep would put probably us in given Duke's RPI. But winning two would leave the door cracked open if we can win the first two in the ACC tourney. Then maybe we'd be top 6 ACC after the tourney or have a low 30's RPI.
    3) AND win the SEMO game. If we don't, our RPI will plummet rightfully. Unfortunately, the weather looks like it will be ok on Tuesday afternoon with only scattered showers. I'm rooting for a rain out cancellation as the best alternative.

    OR
    Win the ACC tourney by winning all four games. Not likely given how poorly we have played against top 50 teams (we'd see 3 or 4) and how poorly we have played on the road.
     
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  2. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    CDH Teams have not finished well in recent years and even with a dominant pitcher in our dugout, I just don't see it happening this year either. We actually haven't played all that well in about 3 weeks, save for CT's starts....so I predict we win 2 more games and the season mercifully ends.
     
  3. FredJacket

    FredJacket Helluva Engineer

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    Good post. Getting to top 6 in ACC is nearly impossible IMO... Would need to move pass LOU & MIA. They both play bottom tier teams at home next weekend (ND & BC respectively). So even assuming a stellar final 5 games, Ga Tech would likely still be 8th at 15-15 (or 16-14) & behind MIA in standings who'll have a lower RPI... Just makes things hard.
     
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  4. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    We are currently in 9th place at 12-14. Beat UVA tonight and go 2-1 against Duke and we finish 15-15. That will still probably be like 7th place, unless FSU craps the bed in their final series against NC State.

    Duke just went 2-1 against UNCheat, who swept us earlier in the year, so going 2-1 against Duke is looking extremely tough.

    Our best chance of moving up is that we own tiebreakers against FSU (currently 14-12) and Miami (currently 14-13).

    But don't forget - the #9 seed gets paired in a round robin in the ACC Tourney with a #4 and #5. That's currently Duke and Louisville/FSU/Miami. That's not a bad draw. Especially when we have 2 really really good starters.
     
  5. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    The next games don't really matter for making the NCAAs. We can't get our RPI up to the low 30's from the 55 it is at regular season. Tonight's SEMO game gets up +2 RPI points for the win and -52 for the loss (I think there is a ~2100 point spread between Florida (#1) and Presbyterian (#275) so it's not a position move).

    Need to rest players up. We have plenty of pitchers who have only seen a few innings. Give X and English the weekend off. Pitch CT ~3 innings / 60 pitches. The ACC tourney championship is our only ticket to the NCAAs.

    We are at 28-24. Figure we most likely beat SEMO and get swept by Duke. Then if we go 0-2 in the ACC (most likely case), we end up with a 29-29 record. Not another losing season, rah. {:extreme sarcasm}.
     
  6. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    I think I figured the RPI impact point thing out (I'm slow sometimes but usually persistent).

    Assuming we get 33 points a game for Duke, we get 99 RPI points for a sweep. UCLA is 97 points ahead at 37th. So that's about where we'd go if everyone else stayed the same (which they won't). http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/team-impact?team=Georgia-Tech

    So if we sweep (and we really need a 3 game and not 2 game sweep), and the win the first two of the ACC tourney, we would get up to the lower 30's which could be enough to get an NCAA bid. But then if we lose the Saturday ACC semi-final game, our RPI drops a bit ........

    Best just not to lose for the rest of the year. (y)(y)(y)

     
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  7. senoiajacket

    senoiajacket Helluva Engineer

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    All those brain cells wasted trying to figure that out .... might as well be trying to figure out the winning lottery number. :)
    Sorry, the cynical side took over.

    SJ
     
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  8. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    Yeah, I can match anyone in cynicism/realism. But I'm happier focusing on the positives of how we can do something positive. I don't think it will happen, but we won't know till we have sh*t the bed. So enjoy the moment, it's all we have.
     
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  9. Lagrangejacket

    Lagrangejacket Ramblin' Wreck

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    You can also just look at Boyd’s World RPI needs report. We have to have 3 wins to finish in the top 45. Top 32 not possible.
     
  10. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    Thanks. We have the ACC tourney to make up for all the missed opportunities this year! The field is formed after the tournaments.

    Anyway, I changed my avatar since the graph was too depressing to look at every time I posted....... good stuff but to strong for me. I can't handle reality.
     
  11. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    With the win last night, we are up to 50th in RPI. Today's win would get us 30 RPI points (less since Duke went down to 18th from 15th). Looking at other teams this morning, the best we can do in the next two game is get to 39th.

    So we still can make the ACC tourney if we win the next 4, preferably five. Six would clinch it since we would win the ACC. I still give us 0-10% of making the tourney but "It ain't over till it's over.".
     
  12. RoosterJacket

    RoosterJacket Helluva Engineer

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    If (huge if) we could sweep Duke (getting in both games left), that would also be big in that it would get us to .500 in conference.
     
  13. FredJacket

    FredJacket Helluva Engineer

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    How (if at all) do you see the Miami situation factoring into Ga Tech's status. Miami is going to finish "hot"...but still with a bad RPI heading into ACCT. They will likely be 17-13 (or 16-14) in the conference; but below Ga Tech in RPI. Ga Tech swept them. Assuming your "big IF" happens and short of winning ACCT, do you see a path for Ga Tech? or Miami? or both?
     
  14. RoosterJacket

    RoosterJacket Helluva Engineer

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    For a few weeks now all the “experts” have only been putting 6 ACC teams in, so it’s hard for me to see them jumping to 8 teams at this point. If we sweep Duke and Miami sweeps, I have a feeling it’ll be between us two competing for a spot in the NCAA tourney. I hope they factor in that we swept Miami...
     
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  15. FredJacket

    FredJacket Helluva Engineer

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    You'd hope... but I fear they'd factor in Miami's ACC record; and probably even more of a factor (unfortunately)... it's Miami AND Jim Morris's final season.
     
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  16. CuseJacket

    CuseJacket Administrator Staff Member

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    Does the committee value road and neutral site wins the same way that the basketball tournament selection committee does? In other words, even if we bump up our RPI to NCAA-worthy territory, do teams lose support based on their inability to win on the road?

    I've not followed the NCAA baseball tournament selection process closely at all in the past.
     
  17. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    Yes, they do. The RPI also takes that into account somewhat, but an atrocious read record like ours (or LSU's) hurts badly.
     
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  18. Lagrangejacket

    Lagrangejacket Ramblin' Wreck

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    One thing to remember is that there's probably a higher bar with RPI for power conference teams like those from the ACC/SEC. Losing games to good teams on the road doesn't hurt the RPI much - that's how 2016 UNC managed a #18 RPI for with a 13-17 ACC record. Sometimes a 'good' RPI just means you played good teams but didn't beat them.

    That's why a team like GT (30-24, RPI #50) isn't projected in by anybody while teams like Houston (33-20, RPI #49) and Arizona (31-20, RPI #42) are.
     
  19. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    I'll be curious to see how LSU fares in the NCAA Selection process. Their RPI is similar to ours (they are #47 and we are #50) and our road records are similar (we are 6-14 and LSU is now 3-14 with an ERA well above 6.00). LSU is still projected as "in" and I suspect it is because they are 11-14 versus Group 1 teams while we are only 6-14.
     
  20. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    Miami can't be put ahead of us in a rational world with two sweeps. Their RPI this morning is 61. And they lose RPI points with a win since BC is so bad.

    I think that only 6 ACC teams will make the tourney unless a lower seed wins it which could take it to 7.

    How you figure the top 6 ACC teams after the ACC tourney is where things could get interesting if we win the next 4. If we don't sweep Duke, the ONLY chance for us is ACC tourney win. For Miami, their only chance now is an ACC Tourney win. IMHO.
     

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