NCAA Tournament & COVID-19

[MWBATL]

FWIW, Dr. Fauci was on CNN this morning and his prediction on total deaths in the US from COVID 19 is between 100,000-200,000.

One last note about trying to play sports. Remember that even after the mitigation measures are relaxed, the expectation is they are going to have to be reinstated multiple times over the next 12-18 months as more waves of the virus come through until either a vaccine is ready or they hit upon therapies that mitigate it enough. I expect Universities, and any business organization to be extremely conservative about opening things up. Last thing you want is to open up too quickly, have a new outbreak and be seen as the cause for that outbreak.

There is also alot of concern that once this really ramps up in more rural areas it is going to be worse according to some models than it is in the big cities. Rural areas largely lack the infrastructure to handle what is coming, so the models predict it will last longer and be more severe in more rural locations as their health systems become overwhelmed almost immediately.

Finally, one interesting note i read this morning. Different countries are counting deaths in different ways that are likely undercounting the fatalities by a pretty large amount. Both Italy and France for example are not counting anyone who dies at home or in a nursing home as part of their official fatality counts.

A number of comments......

First, counting deaths and ascribing them to a particular cause is actually rather tricky. Stop and think about it. Someone with emphysema catches covid-19 and then passes away. Is that a death caused by covid or by emphysema? It seems likely to me that not only will different countries count things differently, but different hospitals might have differing protocols for how you count that death.

Dr. Fauci was also very careful to point out that it was a model, that estimate of 100,000-200,000. And models have been all over the place so far. The Imperial College of London first estimated over 1 million deaths in the US (if not preventative action was taken) and the last figure I saw was 20,000 in the UK based on current situation. My point is not to agree or disagree with Dr. Fauci, but merely to say (which he did as well) that we really don't know yet what the right parameters are to put into the model so we really don't know what the final death toll will be in the first round of this disease (between now and July). Stanford Medical penned an article (dated a bit by now since it is about 10 days old) which estimated a mortality range of anywhere between 0.025% to 0.625%. That is a HUGE spread, and there's the dilemma we face...we just don't know enough. Yet.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

[orientalnc]

A number of comments......

First, counting deaths and ascribing them to a particular cause is actually rather tricky. Stop and think about it. Someone with emphysema catches covid-19 and then passes away. Is that a death caused by covid or by emphysema? It seems likely to me that not only will different countries count things differently, but different hospitals might have differing protocols for how you count that death.

Dr. Fauci was also very careful to point out that it was a model, that estimate of 100,000-200,000. And models have been all over the place so far. The Imperial College of London first estimated over 1 million deaths in the US (if not preventative action was taken) and the last figure I saw was 20,000 in the UK based on current situation. My point is not to agree or disagree with Dr. Fauci, but merely to say (which he did as well) that we really don't know yet what the right parameters are to put into the model so we really don't know what the final death toll will be in the first round of this disease (between now and July). Stanford Medical penned an article (dated a bit by now since it is about 10 days old) which estimated a mortality range of anywhere between 0.025% to 0.625%. That is a HUGE spread, and there's the dilemma we face...we just don't know enough. Yet.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Well said. The issue people are dealing with is that decisions have to be made and reliable data are not currently available. So you use reasoned judgment as to what is the best decision given what we know and what we feel is likely to happen under various scenarios. People will make mistakes. What you hope is that the mistakes will be due to over reacting rather than not doing enough.

 

[orientalnc]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03...-shocked-if-nfl-college-football-games-go-on/

 

[slugboy]

Well said. The issue people are dealing with is that decisions have to be made and reliable data are not currently available. So you use reasoned judgment as to what is the best decision given what we know and what we feel is likely to happen under various scenarios. People will make mistakes. What you hope is that the mistakes will be due to over reacting rather than not doing enough.

From what I’m reading, Covid 19 deaths might be being undercounted because if someone dies of a heart attack while being treated, it’s logged as a heart attack. Likewise for other causes (like emphysema, mentioned earlier).

In Italy and Spain, they were only counting people who died in hospitals—home deaths weren’t counted


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[RamblinRed]

FWIW, the social distancing guidelines have been officially extended to April 30th by President Trump and he said if the death total stays below 100,000 everyone will have done a good job.

By the way this is a really cool model from the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington. This is one of the new models the government has been given in the last couple of days. It is a model that projects deaths from COVID-19 for the US and each state for the next 4 months (through June 2020). It is a best case model estimate right now as it assumes any state that hasn't initiated social distancing measures intiates them within the next week and that those measures stay intact through to the end of the model (end of June) in every state. It looks at how many hospital beds, how many ICU beds and how many ventilators are in each state. it uses that and data from cases and deaths so far to forecast when the peak day will be for each state and how many beds and ventilators are needed vs how many the states have. Right now it projects 81,000 deaths through the end of June. For example the peak for the next 4 months for GA is in mid April and the model currently projects 3,364 deaths in GA over the 4 months (which is the 6th highest total nationally behind NY, CA, TX, MI, WA and just a hundred or so more deaths than FL). FWIW, it appears they are in the process of updating this.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I think why it is hard for me to imagine a full football season as well as a full basketball season is that the health professionals do not see this as a one time event. They see it as a multiple time event over 12-18 months. Basically right now they believe we need to be locked down through the end of June. if all goes well they we will be able to relax restrictions at that point. But they expect that those restrictions will have to go into effect again at some point as another wave takes hold.
So even if we are allowed to go back to closer to normal in July, by September or October everything may need to be shut down again. And maybe again during some of the winter and spring months in 2021. With that kind of uncertainty I can't see University Presidents taking many chances and allowing large groups to congregate. No University President is going to want to be the one to allow that and then have an outbreak on their campus. The negative press they would receive nationally is more than I expect most University Presidents will be able to bear. I can't see them allowing tailgating and packing people into stadiums and arenas.

Hopefully things settle down and we get back to a more normal routine but I have steeled myself with the possibility that we may be like this for multiple periods over the next 18 months.

 

[orientalnc]

FWIW, the social distancing guidelines have been officially extended to April 30th by President Trump and he said if the death total stays below 100,000 everyone will have done a good job.

By the way this is a really cool model from the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington. This is one of the new models the government has been given in the last couple of days. It is a model that projects deaths from COVID-19 for the US and each state for the next 4 months (through June 2020). It is a best case model estimate right now as it assumes any state that hasn't initiated social distancing measures intiates them within the next week and that those measures stay intact through to the end of the model (end of June) in every state. It looks at how many hospital beds, how many ICU beds and how many ventilators are in each state. it uses that and data from cases and deaths so far to forecast when the peak day will be for each state and how many beds and ventilators are needed vs how many the states have. Right now it projects 81,000 deaths through the end of June. For example the peak for the next 4 months for GA is in mid April and the model currently projects 3,364 deaths in GA over the 4 months (which is the 6th highest total nationally behind NY, CA, TX, MI, WA and just a hundred or so more deaths than FL). FWIW, it appears they are in the process of updating this.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I think why it is hard for me to imagine a full football season as well as a full basketball season is that the health professionals do not see this as a one time event. They see it as a multiple time event over 12-18 months. Basically right now they believe we need to be locked down through the end of June. if all goes well they we will be able to relax restrictions at that point. But they expect that those restrictions will have to go into effect again at some point as another wave takes hold.
So even if we are allowed to go back to closer to normal in July, by September or October everything may need to be shut down again. And maybe again during some of the winter and spring months in 2021. With that kind of uncertainty I can't see University Presidents taking many chances and allowing large groups to congregate. No University President is going to want to be the one to allow that and then have an outbreak on their campus. The negative press they would receive nationally is more than I expect most University Presidents will be able to bear. I can't see them allowing tailgating and packing people into stadiums and arenas.

Hopefully things settle down and we get back to a more normal routine but I have steeled myself with the possibility that we may be like this for multiple periods over the next 18 months.

I really appreciate the research you are doing on this. We just learned today that our county has its first confirmed case. Diagnosed a week ago. I expect big changes here beginning tomorrow.

 

[RamblinRed]

That link to the the COVID 19 model has been updated and is up and running again. Sounds like they are updating it daily as new data comes in.
Right now it has a mean US deaths through Aug 4 of 82,141 with a lower bound of 39,174 and an upper bound of 141,995.
It assumes that all states implement mitigation measures within the next 7 days, keep them in place through June 20th and that the mitigation measures work as expected. If any of those end up not being true then obviously the model numbers would increase.
Right now GA has the projected 8th largest mean deaths among the 50 states. FL is third.
There is a link at the bottom where you can download the data and a link at the top that will take you to a page where you can get the PDF of the whole paper with all the notes, references, charts, etc.
For a data analyst it is sort of nirvana.

On a sports note. Wimbledon is expected to be cancelled this week.

 

[YlJacket]

On the positive side the Olympics have been rescheduled for July 23rd. One stake in the ground.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/sports/olympics/tokyo-olympics-date-coronavirus.html

Additionally shortly after starting a large trial France allowed the use of the Hydroxychloroquine drug combo based on early results.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/...oroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

 

[RamblinRed]

On the positive side the Olympics have been rescheduled for July 23rd. One stake in the ground.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/sports/olympics/tokyo-olympics-date-coronavirus.html

Additionally shortly after starting a large trial France allowed the use of the Hydroxychloroquine drug combo based on early results.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/...oroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

Just to clarify the Olympics new date is July 23, 2021. Exactly one year from its original start date. I would certainly hope that that date holds or otherwise we have much bigger problems in the World.

 

[RamblinRed]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03...-shocked-if-nfl-college-football-games-go-on/

This is something to keep an eye on. if you start to see alot of people with large mouthpieces saying you shouldn't have the seasons (which in fairness is not what Kirk is saying, he's not advocating for the seasons not to be played, just giving his opinion that he doesn't see how it is going to be possible right now with all the uncertianty) that will make it more difficult for the organizations to actually have seasons.

 

[orientalnc]

This is something to keep an eye on. if you start to see alot of people with large mouthpieces saying you shouldn't have the seasons (which in fairness is not what Kirk is saying, he's not advocating for the seasons not to be played, just giving his opinion that he doesn't see how it is going to be possible right now with all the uncertianty) that will make it more difficult for the organizations to actually have seasons.

There is another thing to keep an eye on. High schools are almost universally shutdown nationwide and kids are supposed to be doing online classes. If you have a stay at home parent with a college degree, it is likely you have parental support keeping up with those classes. Even if you are not getting the educational equivaent, at least the school board is probably going to hand out diplomas to the seniors who finish the work. What happens when these kids show up at GT or another rigorous university is something to watch.

 

[slugboy]

There is another thing to keep an eye on. High schools are almost universally shutdown nationwide and kids are supposed to be doing online classes. If you have a stay at home parent with a college degree, it is likely you have parental support keeping up with those classes. Even if you are not getting the educational equivaent, at least the school board is probably going to hand out diplomas to the seniors who finish the work. What happens when these kids show up at GT or another rigorous university is something to watch.

They’ll be taking classes virtually from GT with support from their parents? (I hope they can get back to classrooms in a big way)

I have a high schooler and a younger child. Aside from Chemistry taking a hit, the overall learning seems decent, considering.


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[RamblinRed]

FWIW, the extra year of eligibility for Spring Sport SR is no longer seen as a sure thing.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...-is-not-a-slam-dunk-as-ncaa-prepares-to-vote/

 

[MWBATL]

Right now it has a mean US deaths through Aug 4 of 82,141 with a lower bound of 39,174 and an upper bound of 141,995.

Am I the only person who thinks that is really a wide swing in the estimate range? Essentially 40,000-140,000. My goodness, I could do almost as well with my dart board.

Underlies the fact that we still have a ton of unknowns here.

I do agree with @RamblinRed 's comment that the medical professionals all see this as wave 1 of a multi-wave problem. I think the keys will be :

1. do we find a treatment option that works reasonably well SOON?
2. will this disease retreat considerably in the summer months.

If so, we could get a respite and then by the time Wave #2 hits, at least be ready with treatment options. By Wave #3 we hopefully will have a vaccine. If it plays out that way I think things will get back to "normal" much sooner, but than I am a glass half full kind of guy (sometimes)

 

[Peacone36]

Am I the only person who thinks that is really a wide swing in the estimate range? Essentially 40,000-140,000. My goodness, I could do almost as well with my dart board.

Underlies the fact that we still have a ton of unknowns here.

I do agree with @RamblinRed 's comment that the medical professionals all see this as wave 1 of a multi-wave problem. I think the keys will be :

1. do we find a treatment option that works reasonably well SOON?
2. will this disease retreat considerably in the summer months.

If so, we could get a respite and then by the time Wave #2 hits, at least be ready with treatment options. By Wave #3 we hopefully will have a vaccine. If it plays out that way I think things will get back to "normal" much sooner, but than I am a glass half full kind of guy (sometimes)

Depends on what your definition of soon is. I have been listening to the "Weird Medicine" podcast and Dr. Steve did an interview with some guys who were hoping to start manufacturing blood tests for the virus which have shown to be significantly more accurate than the swabs. I believe they were supposed to start the process last week.

As far as treatment goes, I have heard that the malaria drug has been effective in some cases but there are so many avenues to this thing that we just don't know about. We have heard about Rudy Gobert losing his sense of smell, some are asymptomatic while that 31 year old Olympian has been basically put through the ringer. There is also a theory that people with certain blood types are more susceptible.

They are harvesting (not sure if that's the correct term) antibodies from people who have recovered but even if they are able to target the correct AB's it would still be at least 6-12 months before a vaccine becomes viable which would be significantly faster that any other vaccine typically takes 2-3 YEARS. Again this is all coming from things I have read and podcasts I have listened to. The other problem with this is trying to determine whats real and whats horse****

 

[YlJacket]

There are a series of blood tests coming out that are generally more accurate and faster than the nasal swabs. Should see those starting this week and really ramping up next week or so.

The malaria drugs have been effective in small trials but no large definitive trial has published. The key question is where to intervene with the malaria drugs - how early/late do you start treatment.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, a relatively cogent article from Mark Bradley on not seeing sports for some time

https://www.ajc.com/blog/mark-bradl...ports-again-for-while/tgAXYX7WTvxCNNKNhCgrON/

i didn't realize South Korea has cancelled its basketball league. Maybe more importantly, no Asian leagues are currently playing in any sport and don't seem to have any decision on when or if they will try to play this year. Since they had the virus before us and frankly did a better job than us of containing it, it does make it hard to think we will be able to play sports before they play sports again.

 

[orientalnc]

The IBMA Wide Open Bluegrass Festival in Raleigh draws a quarter of a million fans each year. It's the end of September and first weekend in October. I learned today that ticket sales were supposed begin next week and are delayed indefinitely.

 

[JacketOff]

FWIW, a relatively cogent article from Mark Bradley on not seeing sports for some time

https://www.ajc.com/blog/mark-bradl...ports-again-for-while/tgAXYX7WTvxCNNKNhCgrON/

i didn't realize South Korea has cancelled its basketball league. Maybe more importantly, no Asian leagues are currently playing in any sport and don't seem to have any decision on when or if they will try to play this year. Since they had the virus before us and frankly did a better job than us of containing it, it does make it hard to think we will be able to play sports before they play sports again.

The Korean professional baseball league (KBO) still has teams playing intersquad preseason games with no fans in the stands. Here is a Canadian player’s account of what it’s like https://t.co/MRdIGW5xC9?amp=1

 

[MWBATL]

Yet the Peachtree Road Race here in Atlanta has not yet been canceled. (July 4th event, for those not local)