NCAA Tournament & COVID-19

[CuseJacket]

First look at how the loss of the tournament is going to affect revenue.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...illion-down-from-expected-nearly-600-million/

NCAA is going to dole out $225M. Before the cancellation of the Tournament it was expected to send out about $600M.
$53.6M will be given evenly to the 32 conferences ($1.675M - basically 1 unit). How the other 171M+ will be divied up has not been announced).
But same to say it is going to be a hit for the next half a decade as the units are payed out over 6 years.

Given the ACC would have had only 4-5 teams in, this is as good of a year as any for this to have happened.

 

[RamblinRed]

Here is a good series of articles about how COVID-19 is affecting college sports.

This first one talked to over 20 college basketball coaches, AD's and Presidents's including Pastner

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...-college-basketball-and-athletic-departments/

Among the topics in this one - Athletics not being the highest priority, academic anxieties with SA's now remote. Extra year for SR (considered very unlikely and coaches are against it), More players may transfer than ever before (coaches are expecting a huge spike at the end of April or May after the NCAA votes on the one-time transfer rule), NBA Draft timeline, impact on next year's scheduling. No one expects the students to be on campus this summer.

"These are people concerned, first and foremost, over the same issues you and I are concerned about: well-being of their loved ones and themselves; a hope that society can come together and implement consistent social distancing by staying at home and doing everything possible to bring this country back to normal; and relying on medical experts to shepherd us to that return."


"We're in crisis mode," a power-conference athletic director told me. "My opinion means **** to me, let alone anybody else. I haven't even allowed myself to think about what that new day is going to eventually look like."

ADs, conference commissioners and school presidents are being pulled in myriad directions, and at this point, according to sources I spoke with, very few of their conversations include long-term projections about the resumption of college athletics. Nobody knows when that can happen because American society, relying upon the expertise of health officials, has to exhibit a collective understanding, patience and fortitude to beat out an undiscriminating virus that won't have a vaccine for more than a year.

College basketball recruiting
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...ing-for-the-big-changes-coming-in-recruiting/

Very few coaches believe there will be a summer recruiting season.

Hopes are already so low for later this year that multiple coaches told me they'd put it between a 5-10% chance that there is a July live recruiting period, a crucial time for coaches to evaluate players.
"There isn't going to be a Peach Jam this year," one ACC coach said of the most important recruiting event of the year.


Will there be a college football season
https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...led-coaches-ads-weigh-possibility-and-impact/

AD's and coaches really hope so, and SEC coaches are optimistic, but no one really knows.

It hit Texas A&M athletic director Ross Bjork this week when the 2020 Tokyo Olympics were postponed. That event was set to take place roughly a month before the start of the college football season (July 24 to Aug. 9). Olympic officials finally concluded it was not wise for 11,000 athletes from all over the world to congregate for two-plus weeks.

"With that news right there, then that starts creeping into the football season and training camps and scheduling," Bjork said. "… I don't know how you operate [if the season is canceled]. Where would the bailout come from? Because we would all have to have one if we were going to maintain any sort of normalcy."

Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall already said he is open to a "modified season."

North Carolina coach Mack Brown recently told reporters, "There is a fear of, 'Would we have a season?' Would we have a partial season? What does a partial season mean?' There is a great concern because of the revenue that comes in with football."

Try selling season tickets in these uncertain times. Several schools have extended renewal deadlines for obvious reasons.

"One or two things could drive that [interest] down," Stricklin said. "One is people don't think [the season is] going to happen. I don't think we're at that point."

Try raising money for facilities. Florida and Georgia are well down the road in raising funds for building major athletic projects.

Never mind any existing shortfall. There may be issue of re-recruiting donors who have already pledged.

"Those are all gifts," McGarity said. "They're not obligated by law to make those gifts come true."

 

[orientalnc]

I book artists for a music festival in October, so I am talking to musicians and other festival producers about Fall contingency planning. All of us have force majuere clauses in our artist contracts and all of us are making sure the artists understand it is very possible we will cancel Fall festivals. This will be devastating for the performers and lots of venues. But most of us have given in to the fact that the virus is almost certain to be with us this Fall.

 

[RamblinRed]

I'm just going with the assumption there will not be sports in the fall. I figure if I accept that now and there are actually sports than I get to be pleasantly surprised. if not, i've already come to terms with it.

I do wonder what SEC fans are going to be like though if they do shorten or cancel football season. Seriously. I wonder.

 

[MWBATL]

I'm just going with the assumption there will not be sports in the fall. I figure if I accept that now and there are actually sports than I get to be pleasantly surprised. if not, i've already come to terms with it.

I do wonder what SEC fans are going to be like though if they do shorten or cancel football season. Seriously. I wonder.

 

[RamblinRed]

Part of the reason i don't think there will be fall sports - or least not a full season is due to the Olympics being postponed last week.

That is a big tell. That was supposed to run from July 24 - Aug 9 in a country with a relatively few cases. Football practices usually start in the fall around the first week of August.
President's and AD's according to one article are not expecting students to be on campus this summer and are just waiting to see if they will be able to have students on campus in the fall. If they cannot then obviously there will be no fall sports. I believe that is a marker that it is very unlikely that any sports leagues - college or professional will be active before August 9th.

The other idea to understand is if we ultimately have fall or winter sports i would expect the quality of play to be lower than normal.
usually kids are on campus now doing Spring practice if they are football, doing S&C and private workouts if basketball. None of that is happening. None of the players are with each other working on their games and getting in sync with each other. No one is going to be on campus this summer working out, eating like they are supposed to, etc.

That is going to lead to more sloppy play.

 

[mstranahan]

President's and AD's according to one article are not expecting students to be on campus this summer and are just waiting to see if they will be able to have students on campus in the fall. If they cannot then obviously there will be no fall sports.

At least one ACC university is planning for a worst case scenario of no students on campus until September 2021. Entire 2020-21 academic year would be conducted remotely. They aren't assuming that will happen but want to prepare for it in case it does. Obviously, there would be no college sports if that comes to pass at lots of campuses

 

[ESPNjacket]

In the Sports Business Journal there is a report that there are discussions being held to start college football in July. That is based on an assumption that the virus will have a seasonal effect, with the spread reducing in the summer months.

I doubt this happens but it is being discussed.

 

[slugboy]

Part of the reason i don't think there will be fall sports - or least not a full season is due to the Olympics being postponed last week.

That is a big tell. That was supposed to run from July 24 - Aug 9 in a country with a relatively few cases. Football practices usually start in the fall around the first week of August.
President's and AD's according to one article are not expecting students to be on campus this summer and are just waiting to see if they will be able to have students on campus in the fall. If they cannot then obviously there will be no fall sports. I believe that is a marker that it is very unlikely that any sports leagues - college or professional will be active before August 9th.

The other idea to understand is if we ultimately have fall or winter sports i would expect the quality of play to be lower than normal.
usually kids are on campus now doing Spring practice if they are football, doing S&C and private workouts if basketball. None of that is happening. None of the players are with each other working on their games and getting in sync with each other. No one is going to be on campus this summer working out, eating like they are supposed to, etc.

That is going to lead to more sloppy play.

There’s also the aspect that the training centers are shut down—at least in a lot of countries—and even if everything was clear to go in June, some athletes would be at a competitive disadvantage because of the quarantines


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GT_EE78]

did anyone realize that today is the 28 year anniversary of "the shot"
>video at link
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/28/...istian-laettner-duke-kentucky-the-shot-video/

 

[RyanS12]

did anyone realize that today is the 28 year anniversary of "the shot"
>video at link
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/28/...istian-laettner-duke-kentucky-the-shot-video/

Would Duke have the same dynasty had he missed that shot or been ejected for stomping on Timberlakes chest?

 

[MWBATL]

Part of the reason i don't think there will be fall sports - or least not a full season is due to the Olympics being postponed last week.

That is a big tell. That was supposed to run from July 24 - Aug 9 in a country with a relatively few cases. Football practices usually start in the fall around the first week of August.
President's and AD's according to one article are not expecting students to be on campus this summer and are just waiting to see if they will be able to have students on campus in the fall. If they cannot then obviously there will be no fall sports. I believe that is a marker that it is very unlikely that any sports leagues - college or professional will be active before August 9th.

The other idea to understand is if we ultimately have fall or winter sports i would expect the quality of play to be lower than normal.
usually kids are on campus now doing Spring practice if they are football, doing S&C and private workouts if basketball. None of that is happening. None of the players are with each other working on their games and getting in sync with each other. No one is going to be on campus this summer working out, eating like they are supposed to, etc.

That is going to lead to more sloppy play.

I get what you are saying but I believe there is a fundamental difference.

The Olympics were postponed because most countries felt they could not train for the events. Many believe that the Covid outbreak will be contained by July, but training could not be re-started in time to deliver Olympic performances unless the games were delayed by say 2 months at least. Given the uncertainty I believe they decided it was best just to reschedule for next year.

College football re-starts training around late July and should be able to resume by then. Hence we should get the season in.

 

[RamblinRed]

I would be very surprised if college football is practicing in late July.
Universities aren't even sure if students will be allowed back this fall. They pretty much expect students to not be on campus this summer which would make late July an impossibility.

Sometime is August is the earliest I think you will see any kids on campus, if they are allowed back at all.

FWIW, it took 30 days for the US to have its first 1000 deaths. It took 48 hours for its second 1000 deaths. That is exponential growth at its finest. It will likely have its first 1,000 death day by the middle of this week and we are just barely getting started. NY isn't expecting to hit its apex for 3 more weeks and they will be one of the first places to hit their apex. Italy has already had more deaths from COVID-19 than they do from auto accidents in a year.

Also keep in mind that Southern states in particular are testing at a much lower rate than the rest of the country right now. Most Southern states are testing between 5-10 people per 10,000. More Northern and Midwestern states are testing at around 30-40 people per 10,000 and NY is testing 63 people per 10,000. So the undercount is likely much larger on a percetage basis here. Also, with less testing going on it is going to be much harder to stop the spread as it starts to move out from major population centers.

On a personal note, this hit close to home for us yesterday. 2 doors down from us in our cul-de-sac is a young couple (25) who are nurses. The wife is an ICU nurse. Found out yesterday from her husband that she has been quarantined at home for 9 days now with it. She is 30 weeks pregnant as well. At least she is battling well enough that she can be at home rather than at the hospital. The husband said every ICU bed at the hospital has an COVID 19 patient currently and they know it is going to get alot worse before it gets better.

 

[orientalnc]

I would be very surprised if college football is practicing in late July.
Universities aren't even sure if students will be allowed back this fall. They pretty much expect students to not be on campus this summer which would make late July an impossibility.

Sometime is August is the earliest I think you will see any kids on campus, if they are allowed back at all.

FWIW, it took 30 days for the US to have its first 1000 deaths. It took 48 hours for its second 1000 deaths. That is exponential growth at its finest. It will likely have its first 1,000 death day by the middle of this week and we are just barely getting started. NY isn't expecting to hit its apex for 3 more weeks and they will be one of the first places to hit their apex. Italy has already had more deaths from COVID-19 than they do from auto accidents in a year.

Also keep in mind that Southern states in particular are testing at a much lower rate than the rest of the country right now. Most Southern states are testing between 5-10 people per 10,000. More Northern and Midwestern states are testing at around 30-40 people per 10,000 and NY is testing 63 people per 10,000. So the undercount is likely much larger on a percetage basis here. Also, with less testing going on it is going to be much harder to stop the spread as it starts to move out from major population centers.

On a personal note, this hit close to home for us yesterday. 2 doors down from us in our cul-de-sac is a young couple (25) who are nurses. The wife is an ICU nurse. Found out yesterday from her husband that she has been quarantined at home for 9 days now with it. She is 30 weeks pregnant as well. At least she is battling well enough that she can be at home rather than at the hospital. The husband said every ICU bed at the hospital has an COVID 19 patient currently and they know it is going to get alot worse before it gets better.

Thanks for posting. This is a grim reminder that sports are way down the priority list.

 

[RamblinRed]

One other note. Don't assume the China numbers are anywhere near accurate.

The Chinese magazine Caixin is reporting that the deaths in Wuhan are at least 10 times higher than the official numbers. Radio Free Asia is currently estimating deaths in China at over 42,000. "Since March 23, 3,500 coffins a day have been delivered to relatives for 12 consecutive days".

Remember China kicked out all US reporters last week. China has been on a strong propaganda push for the last couple of weeks to blame the US and Italy for the virus and its spread.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, Dr. Fauci was on CNN this morning and his prediction on total deaths in the US from COVID 19 is between 100,000-200,000.

One last note about trying to play sports. Remember that even after the mitigation measures are relaxed, the expectation is they are going to have to be reinstated multiple times over the next 12-18 months as more waves of the virus come through until either a vaccine is ready or they hit upon therapies that mitigate it enough. I expect Universities, and any business organization to be extremely conservative about opening things up. Last thing you want is to open up too quickly, have a new outbreak and be seen as the cause for that outbreak.

There is also alot of concern that once this really ramps up in more rural areas it is going to be worse according to some models than it is in the big cities. Rural areas largely lack the infrastructure to handle what is coming, so the models predict it will last longer and be more severe in more rural locations as their health systems become overwhelmed almost immediately.

Finally, one interesting note i read this morning. Different countries are counting deaths in different ways that are likely undercounting the fatalities by a pretty large amount. Both Italy and France for example are not counting anyone who dies at home or in a nursing home as part of their official fatality counts.

 

[slugboy]

Weird thing is, I’m seeing videos of players working out together, and I saw a gaggle of high-school players running drills together in the park. There’s a lot of “it can’t happen to me” spreading too.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[orientalnc]

NC Gov Cooper has listed exercise as one of the legit reason to get out of your house. He said you still have maintain six feet and no groups larger than ten people.

Our gym in Oriental is closed except for the PT end. Not sure where the players are lifting or how you spot while maintaining six feet. The video I saw was certainly less than that.

 

[YlJacket]

Testing is about to ramp up exponentially. The FDA has relaxed approval standards for new tests for the virus to basically notification and there are 25+ new tests coming on the market in volume over the next 2 weeks. These include new faster RNA tests like the Abbott test and a host of rapid immunoassay screening tests. These will be available in the millions.

The therapeutic option of Hydroxychloroquine plus a ZPack and zinc should be reporting out clinical data in the next week or so. My hope is that it can be used with symptomatic patients to greatly reduce the number of patients who proceed to ventilators. That is the key progression that is overwhelming the system. If that happens it starts to look like a more deadly flu but still arguably a manageable disease while the vaccine progresses with trials.

FYI - specific to the vaccine remember this is something we are looking to give to almost every American - certainly everyone over say 40 or so. When you are looking to do something that widespread you damn well better know it is safe as well as effective. So if they need to take 18 months instead of 12 I am more than OK with that. 18 months is still warp speed.

So there is a pathway to sports this fall but a lot of things we don't have yet need to fall in place.

 

[tsrich]

FWIW, Dr. Fauci was on CNN this morning and his prediction on total deaths in the US from COVID 19 is between 100,000-200,000.

One last note about trying to play sports. Remember that even after the mitigation measures are relaxed, the expectation is they are going to have to be reinstated multiple times over the next 12-18 months as more waves of the virus come through until either a vaccine is ready or they hit upon therapies that mitigate it enough. I expect Universities, and any business organization to be extremely conservative about opening things up. Last thing you want is to open up too quickly, have a new outbreak and be seen as the cause for that outbreak.

There is also alot of concern that once this really ramps up in more rural areas it is going to be worse according to some models than it is in the big cities. Rural areas largely lack the infrastructure to handle what is coming, so the models predict it will last longer and be more severe in more rural locations as their health systems become overwhelmed almost immediately.

Finally, one interesting note i read this morning. Different countries are counting deaths in different ways that are likely undercounting the fatalities by a pretty large amount. Both Italy and France for example are not counting anyone who dies at home or in a nursing home as part of their official fatality counts.

My father recently passed away, and I had to travel from NC into AL. I can attest that AL and Tenn are not taking this seriously, and that the rural areas are really bad about it. There have already been deaths where my sister lives and little has changed in everyone's daily behavior. When it ramps up, it's going to devastate those areas.