NC State Preview

apatriot1776

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Georgia Tech opened as an 8.5-point favorite at Fanduel Sportsbook and the total is at 54.5"
This got glossed over yesterday in favor of Efford discussion...

Is 8.5-points too high, too low? Personally I think we win but it also feels too high given our history of underperforming after a win, the amount of injuries we have, and the fact NC State now has tape on our 2-QB system. But I'd love to be wrong.
 

jgtengineer

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This got glossed over yesterday in favor of Efford discussion...

Is 8.5-points too high, too low? Personally I think we win but it also feels too high given our history of underperforming after a win, the amount of injuries we have, and the fact NC State now has tape on our 2-QB system. But I'd love to be wrong.

Our 2 QB system really wasn't a system. We didn't put Philo in to throw when we otherwise wouldn't have been throwing. And what retruend was our read option game that was missing with king out. I don't thinkt aht part changes much.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Fresh off of a rigorous film session consisting of a couple of NCST condensed games, my novice to intermediate football mind would submit their Wake game as exhibit A. Wake runs a lot of similar concepts to us offensively and Claiborne is a J Haynes doppelgänger. Lots of East / West and outside zone and Claiborne had several one on one opportunities with nothing but green grass after making one guy miss. Pack front over pursued and got washed out several times giving huge cutback lanes and wake sprinkled in a lot of short passing. H King should be a bigger threat to run than Wake had too. Heck, even their unis that day helped visualize how our offense can go against the pack.

The Duke game is a better indicator of pack offense. Wake game is where they lost McCall, so I didn’t worry much about O (although they blocked well and didn’t look bad). Oddly, in the Duke game I didn’t think either O line blocked well. Pack and Duke defenses were in backfields all day. Big difference is that Duke QB made a couple of downfield throws catching state in blitz and one on one cover. Offensively, Pack QB is quick and elusive. Unlike Ward, when pocket breaks, he is getting upfield, not buying time to throw. We need to keep him in pocket. Their WR are slippery outside. We have to tackle in space, which we have done poorly at times this season (ND comes to mind)
Yes, I watched NC State and Duke. Duke led most of the game but one thing stood out to me was that NC State had more yards but ended up kicking four field goals. Ultimately, that cost them the game. Their fans looked deflated at the end of that game and many of them are ready to move on from Dave. State's quarterback is really tall at 6'6" and can zip it but was let down by receivers not catching the ball. Neither team had much success running the football. Duke is pretty stout upfront and impressed me as the better team.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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This got glossed over yesterday in favor of Efford discussion...

Is 8.5-points too high, too low? Personally I think we win but it also feels too high given our history of underperforming after a win, the amount of injuries we have, and the fact NC State now has tape on our 2-QB system. But I'd love to be wrong.
NC State has a pretty talented team that has largely underperformed this season for whatever reason. That said, their backs are to the wall and this will be a close game. Much closer than the near double digit spread. The mental state of this team is unknown. They looked like they were just about ready to toss in the towel against Duke in the fourth quarter but kept playing hard. What will they do against Tech following a touch loss at home? Hard to say. Coach Dave has his work cut out for him.
 

bobongo

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NC State has a pretty talented team that has largely underperformed this season for whatever reason. That said, their backs are to the wall and this will be a close game. Much closer than the near double digit spread. The mental state of this team is unknown. They looked like they were just about ready to toss in the towel against Duke in the fourth quarter but kept playing hard. What will they do against Tech following a touch loss at home? Hard to say. Coach Dave has his work cut out for him.
Extra motivation for them is that they're still not bowl eligible. Add to that the fact Tech is coming off a big upset win and NC State looks like trouble.
The extra time off will help in that regard. Hope we've got out chin straps cinched up tight.
 

stinger78

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Extra motivation for them is that they're still not bowl eligible. Add to that the fact Tech is coming off a big upset win and NC State looks like trouble.
The extra time off will help in that regard. Hope we've got out chin straps cinched up tight.
I think, all things equal, we’re the better team. However, we all know how that’s worked out this season. It will be a game, I suspect.
 

g0lftime

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Agree.
Somewhat disagree
Agree.

On the somewhat disagree - Duke had success downfield against man cover. Duke OL picked up blitz and Murphy did a good job of getting rid of the ball to one on one receivers who made plays. Duke couldn’t run the ball to save their life. They made chunk plays in passing game though.

Wake had a lot of success running. They also had a lot of success with east west and underneath throws. They played just like we do; make them defend sideline to sideline and gash in the run game.

In short, looking at their season, the teams that run first had a lot of success running against them. NCST has padded their stats a bit with a lot of teams that are pass heavy.

Maybe we take some opportunistic shots but I don’t expect any real change to our plan. Lean on our run blocking, East / west passing and jet sweeps, and Haynes &Haynes chunk plays between the hashes - the cutbacks will be there
I feel HK needs to pass downfield to keep them from stacking the box so we can run against them. We need to take what they will give us and if they stack the box, we need to throw.
 

YoungSting

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If we get up by any more than 2 possessions after the first quarter, they will quit. I think this is one where the scoreboard will be closer than the game. They might have time to scheme up a game plan to stop the run, but we will have wrinkles. By the third we are shortening the game by picking up first downs with runs
 

CEB

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I feel HK needs to pass downfield to keep them from stacking the box so we can run against them. We need to take what they will give us and if they stack the box, we need to throw.

IMG_0910.gif
 

Root4GT

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I think, all things equal, we’re the better team. However, we all know how that’s worked out this season. It will be a game, I suspect.
So what team that Tech was better than did Tech lose to? We were a 2.5 point favorite over Syracuse. In our other 3 losses we were a 10+ point underdog?

So what exactly are you referring to that "we all know?"
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Other than GA State, we haven’t beat any P4 team by more than 10 this season.
FSU - 3
Dook- 10
UNC - 7
Miami - 5

I’d expect it to be a one score game.
After watching Duke against NC State, I am impressed that we managed to beat them by any score. They have a good team that is playing hard for Manny which is more than Miami's talented thugs ever deigned to do. This is not the old Duke under Roof and others. They have managed to build upon the success of Coach Cut and have become quite respectable.
 

stinger78

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After watching Duke against NC State, I am impressed that we managed to beat them by any score. They have a good team that is playing hard for Manny which is more than Miami's talented thugs ever deigned to do. This is not the old Duke under Roof and others. They have managed to build upon the success of Coach Cut and have become quite respectable.
We completely dominated Dook in every phase of the game but the score. Our D played a great game and the O put up over 400 yards.
 
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Thwg777

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This got glossed over yesterday in favor of Efford discussion...

Is 8.5-points too high, too low? Personally I think we win but it also feels too high given our history of underperforming after a win, the amount of injuries we have, and the fact NC State now has tape on our 2-QB system. But I'd love to be wrong.

This is a bit pedantic but as a degenerate, I do want to point out that it opened GT -6.5, which screamed, ‘bet me’!

I thought that was interesting as a -7 opener would have been less polarizing. It quickly (within an hour or so), moved to -7.5 and then -8.5 where it has remained all week.

I’ll be interested to see if it moves from here. GT as an underdog has lots of sharp / professional support whereas as a favorite is an auto fade.
 

crl85

Jolly Good Fellow
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Looks like the last time we topped this attendance number in BDS outside of COFH is against Miami in 2018 with 48,217.

A side note, it's a high number, but if we can attract 43,513 this Thursday we would average 40k at home for the season. That's a huge improvement considering since 2020 we've only topped 40k against UGA and Ole Miss. And three of those five games are against Georgia State, VMI, and Duke. The fans are coming back, we just need to stay the course.
We are averaging just over 43k for home games this year as of today

I assume your number doesn’t count the ND game? That is a legit home game
 

billga99

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I feel HK needs to pass downfield to keep them from stacking the box so we can run against them. We need to take what they will give us and if they stack the box, we need to throw.
If he can. Warming up before Miami he never threw a pass over 10 yards. Physically it may not be possible.
 
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