NC State Preview

RamblinRed

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slugboy said:
There's a Game on Paper stats preview at https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401634772.

Their offense vs our defense:
NCST OffenseGT Defense
#360.12EPA/Pass0.06#91
#95-0.02EPA/Rush-0.07#32
#7746.3%Available Yards %44.0%#67
#41Own 29Starting Field PositionOwn 27#41
#78-0.01Early Downs EPA/Play0.02#88
T-#3348.1%3rd/4th Down Success39.3%#37
#957.33Avg 3rd Down Distance7.86#13

We're solid against the run; they can't run it--traditional GT pessimism is that they go off in the run game. More likely, they don't run it well.

They're decent in the passing game; we're still not good there. If we play like we did on Saturday against Miami, we can shut them down. It looks like they sling it.

This would be a bad matchup--their strength, such as it is, against our defensive weakness. I have a little faith in the defensive staff--very cautiously optimistic.

Their defense against our offense:

NCST DefenseGT Offense
#46-0.05EPA/Pass0.20#19
#1000.08EPA/Rush0.07#41
#8647.0%Available Yards %52.2%#38
#132Own 33Starting FPOwn 26#103
#730.00Early Downs EPA/Play0.11#24
#4338.2%3rd Down Success44.5%#53
#617.19Avg 3rd Down Distance6.40#22

Their defense looks suspect, and it's weak against the run. You'd think we'd be a horrible matchup for them.

Ironically, they look good in "Success Rate" against the run:
NCST stats:
Net EPA/Play+0.05#62
Offense0.12#36
Defense-0.05#46
Offense Success43.2%#50
Pass46.8%#25
Rush39.0%#95
Defense Success39.8%#58
Pass44.4%#98
Rush34.6%#13
Net EPA/Drive+0.25#62
Offense0.29#61
Defense0.04#73
Net Field Position-4.0#120

Looks like Concepcion (WR) is someone to keep an eye on:

Kevin Concepcion​

0.33 EPA/Play, 46 Cat (81% Catch%), 327 yds, 5 TD

NCST Defense is SUS and gives up big plays.

View attachment 17176
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The #103 field position ranking feels about right. It has felt like every game our O has had to go long distances to score - very few easy scoring opportunities.
 

yeti92

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stinger78 said:
How do you know Pyron is 100%?
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I think he means "in a scenario where King is hampered and Pyron is 100%", not that Pyron is currently 100%. idk what Zach's status is, but I'm guessing not 100% - he was dressed out on Saturday, but I don't think I ever saw him with his helmet on or even in hand. Seemed to me like he was available for emergency play only.
 

jgtengineer

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yeti92 said:
I think he means "in a scenario where King is hampered and Pyron is 100%", not that Pyron is currently 100%. idk what Zach's status is, but I'm guessing not 100% - he was dressed out on Saturday, but I don't think I ever saw him with his helmet on or even in hand. Seemed to me like he was available for emergency play only.
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He took a hit to the same collarbone he broke in the ND game.
 

LT 1967

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AS this AJC article points out, GT has not won 5 home games since 2017. We need a win against NCS to accomplish that goal. I know some cannot read this, but I added a comment from Coach Key concerning Dave Doeren.

“Dave Doeren is a tremendous football coach. He’s someone that I very much respect in this league and in the world of college football,” Key said. “There’s such a mutual respect and the respect for how he’s built his football program over the last 10 years. He truly believes in being a developmental program and bringing guys in from the high school ranks and developing those guys.

“They play physical and tough at the line of scrimmage. It’s a different defensive front than we’ve seen as of late. And the quarterback’s playing good football. … So it’s gonna be a big challenge for us.”

 
slugboy

slugboy

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LT 1967 said:
AS this AJC article points out, GT has not won 5 home games since 2017. We need a win against NCS to accomplish that goal. I know some cannot read this, but I added a comment from Coach Key concerning Dave Doeren.

“Dave Doeren is a tremendous football coach. He’s someone that I very much respect in this league and in the world of college football,” Key said. “There’s such a mutual respect and the respect for how he’s built his football program over the last 10 years. He truly believes in being a developmental program and bringing guys in from the high school ranks and developing those guys.

“They play physical and tough at the line of scrimmage. It’s a different defensive front than we’ve seen as of late. And the quarterback’s playing good football. … So it’s gonna be a big challenge for us.”

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Every time we beat a top ranked team, they’re not top ranked anymore.

I saw a Miami fan after the game write “they got the win, but at what cost?”. Both teams racked up injuries.
 

jgtengineer

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apatriot1776 said:
Jamal and Efford also looked in good spirits post-game. I'd think if either injury were more serious they wouldn't be out celebrating on the field.
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As someone with a shoulder injury that basically ended my playing career. They can be finicky You can fight through them but eventually they give out which is what looked like happened with Efford. A pinched nerve can't be really fixed in season for instance. Jamal definitely will be back he just needs a week to pass protocol.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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jgtengineer said:
As someone with a shoulder injury that basically ended my playing career. They can be finicky You can fight through them but eventually they give out which is what looked like happened with Efford. A pinched nerve can't be really fixed in season for instance. Jamal definitely will be back he just needs a week to pass protocol.
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Kings dad has been a hs football coach for 25-30 years. He and Haynes know the categories of shoulder sprain+ how accurate mri ultea sound are. King was ready to play within limits so as to not make it worse. They said the plan is to get better in bye and jn each of the next """3""" games. They are positive about the process, progress. Want to win, period.

Hard not to be very fired up about Gt in 25, if we have these 3 running the offense in practice or with an injury.
 
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