NC State Preview

[RamblinRed]

There's a Game on Paper stats preview at https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401634772.

Their offense vs our defense:

	NCST Offense		GT Defense
#36	0.12	EPA/Pass	0.06	#91
#95	-0.02	EPA/Rush	-0.07	#32
#77	46.3%	Available Yards %	44.0%	#67
#41	Own 29	Starting Field Position	Own 27	#41
#78	-0.01	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.02	#88
T-#33	48.1%	3rd/4th Down Success	39.3%	#37
#95	7.33	Avg 3rd Down Distance	7.86	#13

We're solid against the run; they can't run it--traditional GT pessimism is that they go off in the run game. More likely, they don't run it well.

They're decent in the passing game; we're still not good there. If we play like we did on Saturday against Miami, we can shut them down. It looks like they sling it.

This would be a bad matchup--their strength, such as it is, against our defensive weakness. I have a little faith in the defensive staff--very cautiously optimistic.

Their defense against our offense:

	NCST Defense		GT Offense
#46	-0.05	EPA/Pass	0.20	#19
#100	0.08	EPA/Rush	0.07	#41
#86	47.0%	Available Yards %	52.2%	#38
#132	Own 33	Starting FP	Own 26	#103
#73	0.00	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.11	#24
#43	38.2%	3rd Down Success	44.5%	#53
#61	7.19	Avg 3rd Down Distance	6.40	#22

Their defense looks suspect, and it's weak against the run. You'd think we'd be a horrible matchup for them.

Ironically, they look good in "Success Rate" against the run:
NCST stats:

Net EPA/Play	+0.05	#62
Offense	0.12	#36
Defense	-0.05	#46

Offense Success	43.2%	#50
Pass	46.8%	#25
Rush	39.0%	#95

Defense Success	39.8%	#58
Pass	44.4%	#98
Rush	34.6%	#13

Net EPA/Drive	+0.25	#62
Offense	0.29	#61
Defense	0.04	#73

Net Field Position	-4.0	#120

Looks like Concepcion (WR) is someone to keep an eye on:

Kevin Concepcion​

0.33 EPA/Play, 46 Cat (81% Catch%), 327 yds, 5 TD

NCST Defense is SUS and gives up big plays.

View attachment 17176

The #103 field position ranking feels about right. It has felt like every game our O has had to go long distances to score - very few easy scoring opportunities.

 

[tmhunter52]

It will be interesting to see what Buster does if King is still hampered, but Pyron is 100%

 

[stinger78]

It will be interesting to see what Buster does if King is still hampered, but Pyron is 100%

How do you know Pyron is 100%?

 

[yeti92]

How do you know Pyron is 100%?

I think he means "in a scenario where King is hampered and Pyron is 100%", not that Pyron is currently 100%. idk what Zach's status is, but I'm guessing not 100% - he was dressed out on Saturday, but I don't think I ever saw him with his helmet on or even in hand. Seemed to me like he was available for emergency play only.

 

[tmhunter52]

How do you know Pyron is 100%?

I don’t know - it was a hypothetical

 

[jgtengineer]

I think he means "in a scenario where King is hampered and Pyron is 100%", not that Pyron is currently 100%. idk what Zach's status is, but I'm guessing not 100% - he was dressed out on Saturday, but I don't think I ever saw him with his helmet on or even in hand. Seemed to me like he was available for emergency play only.

He took a hit to the same collarbone he broke in the ND game.

 

[LT 1967]

AS this AJC article points out, GT has not won 5 home games since 2017. We need a win against NCS to accomplish that goal. I know some cannot read this, but I added a comment from Coach Key concerning Dave Doeren.

“Dave Doeren is a tremendous football coach. He’s someone that I very much respect in this league and in the world of college football,” Key said. “There’s such a mutual respect and the respect for how he’s built his football program over the last 10 years. He truly believes in being a developmental program and bringing guys in from the high school ranks and developing those guys.

“They play physical and tough at the line of scrimmage. It’s a different defensive front than we’ve seen as of late. And the quarterback’s playing good football. … So it’s gonna be a big challenge for us.”

Georgia Tech football could go undefeated at home for the first time in 25 years

With only NC State left in Bobby Dodd Stadium Georgia Tech football has the opportunity to go undefeated at home for the first time since 1999.

www.ajc.com

 

[stinger78]

I don’t know - it was a hypothetical

I was just curious if you’d heard something.

 

[slugboy]

AS this AJC article points out, GT has not won 5 home games since 2017. We need a win against NCS to accomplish that goal. I know some cannot read this, but I added a comment from Coach Key concerning Dave Doeren.

“Dave Doeren is a tremendous football coach. He’s someone that I very much respect in this league and in the world of college football,” Key said. “There’s such a mutual respect and the respect for how he’s built his football program over the last 10 years. He truly believes in being a developmental program and bringing guys in from the high school ranks and developing those guys.

“They play physical and tough at the line of scrimmage. It’s a different defensive front than we’ve seen as of late. And the quarterback’s playing good football. … So it’s gonna be a big challenge for us.”

Georgia Tech football could go undefeated at home for the first time in 25 years

With only NC State left in Bobby Dodd Stadium Georgia Tech football has the opportunity to go undefeated at home for the first time since 1999.

www.ajc.com

Every time we beat a top ranked team, they’re not top ranked anymore.

I saw a Miami fan after the game write “they got the win, but at what cost?”. Both teams racked up injuries.

 

[57jacket]

Georgia Tech football could go undefeated at home for the first time in 25 years

With only NC State left in Bobby Dodd Stadium Georgia Tech football has the opportunity to go undefeated at home for the first time since 1999.

www.ajc.com

 

[LongforDodd]

Georgia Tech football could go undefeated at home for the first time in 25 years

With only NC State left in Bobby Dodd Stadium Georgia Tech football has the opportunity to go undefeated at home for the first time since 1999.

www.ajc.com

Ahhh...the old AJC "fade" route. I haven't caught one of those yet and I had a good set of hands.

 

[HurricaneJacket]

I think this comes down to health. Not profound I know, but at least we have another bye to heal up

 

[mtodd30]

Jamal ought to be back, they were saying concussion protocol

 

[slugboy]

Jamal ought to be back, they were saying concussion protocol

Jamal is the kind of back who could tear up NCST

 

[stinger78]

Jamal is the kind of back who could tear up NCST

Keep talking to me that way!

 

[apatriot1776]

Jamal ought to be back, they were saying concussion protocol

Jamal and Efford also looked in good spirits post-game. I'd think if either injury were more serious they wouldn't be out celebrating on the field.

 

[bensaysitathome]

Jamal and Efford also looked in good spirits post-game. I'd think if either injury were more serious they wouldn't be out celebrating on the field.

I'm not entirely sure on this. If my team had as big as win as this, I'm probably celebrating regardless of the injury!

 

[jgtengineer]

Jamal and Efford also looked in good spirits post-game. I'd think if either injury were more serious they wouldn't be out celebrating on the field.

As someone with a shoulder injury that basically ended my playing career. They can be finicky You can fight through them but eventually they give out which is what looked like happened with Efford. A pinched nerve can't be really fixed in season for instance. Jamal definitely will be back he just needs a week to pass protocol.

 

[HurricaneJacket]

Jamal ought to be back, they were saying concussion protocol

I read somewhere that they had to keep Jamal from coming back in vs Miami, so hopefully he will be here for ncst

 

[iceeater1969]

As someone with a shoulder injury that basically ended my playing career. They can be finicky You can fight through them but eventually they give out which is what looked like happened with Efford. A pinched nerve can't be really fixed in season for instance. Jamal definitely will be back he just needs a week to pass protocol.

Kings dad has been a hs football coach for 25-30 years. He and Haynes know the categories of shoulder sprain+ how accurate mri ultea sound are. King was ready to play within limits so as to not make it worse. They said the plan is to get better in bye and jn each of the next """3""" games. They are positive about the process, progress. Want to win, period.

Hard not to be very fired up about Gt in 25, if we have these 3 running the offense in practice or with an injury.