NC State Preview

[roadkill]

Wanted to go ahead and start a thread on our next game, even though we are still basking in the glow of our Miami victory.

Will we continue with the two-QB approach? I suspect we will as long as King is limited. Will NCSt be better prepared since they will have film on it? Expect the answer here is also yes, and they get extra time to prep. Buster will have to continue creative play-calling for us to be successful with this offensive approach. One key is to avoid having to play from behind by multiple scores, which allows our run game to flourish.

5-5 NC State has struggled at times this season and just lost to Duke at home last Saturday. But they are not a team we can take for granted even though I expect us to be favored. Doeren is a good coach and they have similar overall talent. Their true freshman dual-threat QB has a lot of potential and has shown some Cam Ward-like moves. He also tends to make freshman mistakes which I hope we can capitalize on. They have a dangerous all-purpose receiver in Kevin Concepcion but for some reason, his numbers are down this season.

FEI ranks NC St slightly below average on both offense and defense this year. Advanced stats show a team with a decent EPA when passing but well below average with their rushing attack. Not an ideal matchup for the way our defense has been playing. On the other side of the ball, their run defense has been pretty bad which bodes well for the type of game Buster wants to have with King behind center.

We should win this one at home, especially with extra time to get healthier. Let's hope the team can stay focused and hungry.

 

[MWBATL]

I predict we’ll go 1-1 in our next two games. I have NO idea which game we’ll win.

 

[slugboy]

There's a Game on Paper stats preview at https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401634772.

Their offense vs our defense:

	NCST Offense		GT Defense
#36	0.12	EPA/Pass	0.06	#91
#95	-0.02	EPA/Rush	-0.07	#32
#77	46.3%	Available Yards %	44.0%	#67
#41	Own 29	Starting Field Position	Own 27	#41
#78	-0.01	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.02	#88
T-#33	48.1%	3rd/4th Down Success	39.3%	#37
#95	7.33	Avg 3rd Down Distance	7.86	#13

We're solid against the run; they can't run it--traditional GT pessimism is that they go off in the run game. More likely, they don't run it well.

They're decent in the passing game; we're still not good there. If we play like we did on Saturday against Miami, we can shut them down. It looks like they sling it.

This would be a bad matchup--their strength, such as it is, against our defensive weakness. I have a little faith in the defensive staff--very cautiously optimistic.

Their defense against our offense:

	NCST Defense		GT Offense
#46	-0.05	EPA/Pass	0.20	#19
#100	0.08	EPA/Rush	0.07	#41
#86	47.0%	Available Yards %	52.2%	#38
#132	Own 33	Starting FP	Own 26	#103
#73	0.00	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.11	#24
#43	38.2%	3rd Down Success	44.5%	#53
#61	7.19	Avg 3rd Down Distance	6.40	#22

Their defense looks suspect, and it's weak against the run. You'd think we'd be a horrible matchup for them.

Ironically, they look good in "Success Rate" against the run:
NCST stats:

Net EPA/Play	+0.05	#62
Offense	0.12	#36
Defense	-0.05	#46

Offense Success	43.2%	#50
Pass	46.8%	#25
Rush	39.0%	#95

Defense Success	39.8%	#58
Pass	44.4%	#98
Rush	34.6%	#13

Net EPA/Drive	+0.25	#62
Offense	0.29	#61
Defense	0.04	#73

Net Field Position	-4.0	#120

Looks like Concepcion (WR) is someone to keep an eye on:

Kevin Concepcion​

0.33 EPA/Play, 46 Cat (81% Catch%), 327 yds, 5 TD

NCST Defense is SUS and gives up big plays.

 

[78pike]

I predict we’ll go 1-1 in our next two games. I have NO idea which game we’ll win.

I know which one I would prefer!

 

[slugboy]

Condensed NCST vs Duke game



Somehow, Duke's formations look a lot like ours, but I don't like their offense like I like ours.

 

[bensaysitathome]

Lots of talent on last year's team. They started with Grayson McCall as a transfer QB, and he was expected to do great things, starting the season ranked. But they don't do much of anything, and eventually he takes a hit that causes him to retire.

CJ Bailey takes over and they start to look a little better. Not good, but better. They play some teams close, end up beating a scrappy Cal team, then blow out a bad Stanford team. They actually looked to be on the up, but they struggled against Duke's defense last week, and seemed to lose all the momentum they'd built.

Worth noting the teams they've beat. Western Carolina, La Tech, Northern Illinois, Cal, and Stanford. If they beat us, it will be their best win by a country mile. Not saying they can't, just saying they've only managed to put it together against pretty bad teams so far.

 

[Thwg777]

I’d consider their Cal win respectable given the timezone difference. While Cal losing to F$U is unforgivable (never thought I’d type this in 2024), Cal’s other 3 losses have been by a combined 8 points, including (almost) besting Miami.

I’ve only seen a few NCST games this season, all pretty much at their worst moments. A 5-5 team is dangerous so hopefully we’re well-prepared. Plus we have 8 days to prep for u(sic)ga after them. Here’s to hopefully seeing NCST at their nadir next Thursday!

 

[roadkill]

Looks like Concepcion (WR) is someone to keep an eye on:

Kevin Concepcion​

0.33 EPA/Play, 46 Cat (81% Catch%), 327 yds, 5 TD

They have a dangerous all-purpose receiver in Kevin Concepcion but for some reason, his numbers are down this season.

I wonder if he's not putting up the totals this year because defenses are focusing on him after last year's performance. They may also be spreading the ball around more this year.

This would be a bad matchup--their strength, such as it is, against our defensive weakness.

Not an ideal matchup for the way our defense has been playing.

We're on the same page here.

 

[Jacket4Life]

NC State is not a very good team this year. I would rest King for the UGA game.

 

[4shotB]

NC State is not a very good team this year. I would rest King for the UGA game.

I hope we become a team that can look at a middle of the road ACC team as a "gimme". But we are not there yet (and haven't been in a very long time). Let's go all in for this game and worry about Uga afterwards.

 

[slugboy]

I hope we become a team that can look at a middle of the road ACC team as a "gimme". But we are not there yet (and haven't been in a very long time). Let's go all in for this game and worry about Uga afterwards.

I just watched the Falcons blow a game to a depleted Saints squad. Ain’t no gimmes

We have 10 days to heal and prep—better to win the next game when you can

 

[roadkill]

Let's go all in for this game and worry about Uga afterwards.

That would be consistent with what Key is trying to instill in his team - to focus on the next game in front of you, one game at a time.

 

[stinger78]

We will run the ball on NCSU and control TOP. If we can do that and our D stop explosion plays, we will win this game. I *really* like the pressure CTS has dialed up on QB’s recently. If we can continue to do that against their FR QB it will bode well.

 

[roadkill]

We will run the ball on NCSU and control TOP. If we can do that and our D stop explosion plays, we will win this game. I *really* like the pressure CTS has dialed up on QB’s recently. If we can continue to do that against their FR QB it will bode well.

I hope that is also our coach's game plan.

 

[MonroeJacket]

NCSU can absolutely beat us, especially without King.

 

[Richland County]

My preview is Tech beating some wolf a$$. 7-4 and looking to kick some mutt a$$ also. 8-4 after black Friday. Go Jackets Bust Their A$$!!

 

[iceeater1969]

NCSU can absolutely beat us, especially without King.

I think they have a good coach and this game will be a big game for them as they getcready for unc. They have a bye and will be well prepared. Our secret qb A runs and qb 2 passes wont fool them. They run a 3 3 5 with a 6'4" NT. Our center is tough but had issues with bull rush and pass pro by talented dt on ND and Vt. Our Ol tackles had grestcgame against miami. LT Fuscile had a few issues but true freshmen 52 came in for a good numvmber of plays - can really move 77 is a rock. I hear King should be feeling much better by ncst.
What can i say about defense - except wow have they improved.

I think we will be playing like this game is vital.
If we have a full team effort and a not stupid special teams we are dangerous.

 

[4shotB]

I think the players commented on the atmosphere at the U game. A night game at BDS in November should be fun! It's our annual pilgrimage to BDS with my old Tech buddies and we are all scattered across the US. Hoping to see a good crowd there.

 

[stinger78]

I think the players commented on the atmosphere at the U game. A night game at BDS in November should be fun! It's our annual pilgrimage to BDS with my old Tech buddies and we are all scattered across the US. Hoping to see a good crowd there.

If you plan your after-dinner treats, you’ll see two of everyone there. Huge crowd!!!

 

[slugboy]

Condensed NCST vs Duke game



Somehow, Duke's formations look a lot like ours, but I don't like their offense like I like ours.

Some highlights:

• Malik Murphy (Duke's QB) threw some dimes in this game. Really good passing by Duke--hopefully, we can do the same
• Duke had a hard time setting the edge on runs. Maybe it's NCST having speed, or maybe Duke doesn't block that well.
• There was a play where NCST had two defenders lined up for an INT, and the Duke receiver came back and won the ball--not only did he prevent an interception, but he got the reception. Without that kind of play, this game probably turns out differently.
• Duke also had an incredibly lucky interception where the ball bounced out of the receiver's breadbasket right into the defender.
• It was a chippy game
• NCST got plenty of TFLs. Don't assume that they can't play run defense--it's just that they have a feast-or-famine defense that can give up big plays.
• NCST defenders spend a lot of effort trying to strip the ball. One time they did. They intercepted, too.
• NCST's QB runs some option, and he's a slippery runner.
• NCST does well on punt returns and kickoff returns too. Still, they seem to lose the field position battle.
• Grimes, Rogers, and Joly are targets--couple of receptions, each.
• They ran a flea flicker in the game. They're pulling out all the stops. Expect the same against us.