@ NC State Baseball

[gtbeak]

I don't know how much weighting RPI gives to the home team, but I wanted to see how much of an advantage home field is typically. I looked just at conference games, as in non-conference games it is common for a lesser team to travel to a better team, meaning the home team should have the better record. The results (shown below) indicate that the home team wins ~60% of games****. This means that a road win should be scaled to equal 1.25 wins, while a home win should be scaled to equal 0.83 wins (approximately). Does anyone know what the actual scaling factors are that they use?

In 2024 (so far):
ACC home teams have won 25 of 36 games in ACC play.
SEC home teams have won 17 of 21 in SEC play.
B12 home teams have won 21 of 33 in B12 play.

In 2023:
ACC home teams won 117 of 206 games in ACC play.
SEC home teams won 131 of 209 games in SEC play.
B12 home teams won 63 of 108 in B12 play.

Total for 2023 & 2024:
ACC home teams won 142 of 242 games in ACC play, or 58.7%
SEC home teams won 148 of 230 games in SEC play, or 64.3%
B12 home teams won 84 of 141 games in B12 play, or 59.6%

**** Interesting to note that in 2023 & 2024 (to date) home field is more of a factor in SEC games than ACC or B12 games. I have no idea if this is just a normal fluctuation in results or if it continues to play out on a yearly basis.

 

[gtbeak]

SSDY. At some point we should find the thread where we have killed this topic every year.

I agree it is flawed and like democracy, the least worse alternative. And the 60/40 split for home/away is way too much.

And it very much matters to make NCAAT. Its the "law" and no one should be surprised by it. ( I know you aren't.)

The problem for us is the teams we have played are expected to be so weak at season end that we will have a hard time making tourney unless we win 16 of 30 ACC games. And a much harder time hosting. IIWII

Nuke, I didn't read your post until after I made my post. Based on the numbers I posted, it appears that not only is 60/40 not way too much, it is almost exactly correct. Is this the ratio that is used?

 

[gtbeak]

Though I agree that his site is relatively worthless, I will say this about RPI.....early or not...It matters.

Problem is we'd have to go 19-11 or 20-10 in conference to even stand a chance at hosting because it puts Tech behind the 8 ball. What you describe above barely gets tech in the tournament.
The same garbage happens in pre-season college football rankings.
Because uga is at 33, they could go 16-14 in the sec and possibly host.
I'm not saying uga shouldn't be above us however 40+ spots...No

I knew uga wasn't that good and if we hold onto a 9-3 lead in the 7th and Charlie Condon doesn't rob Cam Jones of a line drive in the 8th in athens, we could've possibly taken both games from them. In the end, we didn't but uga isn't that good yet they are getting rewarded for playing a relatively weak schedule so far and we are getting punished for an even worse schedule.

First team they play and they get swept with a run rule.

Why is nc state ahead of us? We swept them and have a better record....IJS 20+ spots ahead of us. Their record is 12-6 and swept by us. We're 15-4.
BTW- Notre Dame is 11 in the latest rpi. Overall record is 11-8 0-6 in acc

Again, RPI is just a formula. There is no bias in it EXCEPT for the weighting given to the delta between home/road games. It appears that NC State is ahead of us because their opponents and their opponent's opponents have a much better win percentage than is the case for ours. As I stated in my post about the non-conference part of the schedule, Coach Hall put a huge obstacle in front of this team by scheduling both Cornell and Youngstown St. One of them is OK, but we can't play two schools like that. In his defense, he may have expected one or both to be improved in 2024 (and perhaps they will be by the end), but so far both have been horrifically bad (YSU is 2-17 and Cornell is 2-9).

ETA: In your other post you stated WTTE that you can see the baseball powers and SEC's hands all over RPI. Not true, though, since it was created for basketball and ported over to baseball after the fact. There is no pre-season bias built into it, it starts out assuming all teams are equal and goes from there. Any disadvantage we have this season is strictly due to how we chose to schedule.

 

[FredJacket]

I don't know how much weighting RPI gives to the home team, but I wanted to see how much of an advantage home field is typically. I looked just at conference games, as in non-conference games it is common for a lesser team to travel to a better team, meaning the home team should have the better record. The results (shown below) indicate that the home team wins ~60% of games****. This means that a road win should be scaled to equal 1.25 wins, while a home win should be scaled to equal 0.83 wins (approximately). Does anyone know what the actual scaling factors are that they use?

In 2024 (so far):
ACC home teams have won 25 of 36 games in ACC play.
SEC home teams have won 17 of 21 in SEC play.
B12 home teams have won 21 of 33 in B12 play.

In 2023:
ACC home teams won 117 of 206 games in ACC play.
SEC home teams won 131 of 209 games in SEC play.
B12 home teams won 63 of 108 in B12 play.

Total for 2023 & 2024:
ACC home teams won 142 of 242 games in ACC play, or 58.7%
SEC home teams won 148 of 230 games in SEC play, or 64.3%
B12 home teams won 84 of 141 games in B12 play, or 59.6%

**** Interesting to note that in 2023 & 2024 (to date) home field is more of a factor in SEC games than ACC or B12 games. I have no idea if this is just a normal fluctuation in results or if it continues to play out on a yearly basis.

It's
x1.3 for road wins
x0.7 for home wins
x1.3 for home loss
x0.7 for road loss

Ground Rules: Understanding the new R.P.I

Winter 2013

www.abca.org

 

[bensaysitathome]

Again, RPI is just a formula. There is no bias in it EXCEPT for the weighting given to the delta between home/road games. It appears that NC State is ahead of us because their opponents and their opponent's opponents have a much better win percentage than is the case for ours. As I stated in my post about the non-conference part of the schedule, Coach Hall put a huge obstacle in front of this team by scheduling both Cornell and Youngstown St. One of them is OK, but we can't play two schools like that. In his defense, he may have expected one or both to be improved in 2024 (and perhaps they will be by the end), but so far both have been horrifically bad (YSU is 2-17 and Cornell is 2-9).

ETA: In your other post you stated WTTE that you can see the baseball powers and SEC's hands all over RPI. Not true, though, since it was created for basketball and ported over to baseball after the fact. There is no pre-season bias built into it, it starts out assuming all teams are equal and goes from there. Any disadvantage we have this season is strictly due to how we chose to schedule.

Thank you. There's no 'SEC bias' in math. It's not based on anyone's opinions, preseason or otherwise.

 

[FredJacket]

Again, RPI is just a formula. There is no bias in it EXCEPT for the weighting given to the delta between home/road games. It appears that NC State is ahead of us because their opponents and their opponent's opponents have a much better win percentage than is the case for ours. As I stated in my post about the non-conference part of the schedule, Coach Hall put a huge obstacle in front of this team by scheduling both Cornell and Youngstown St. One of them is OK, but we can't play two schools like that. In his defense, he may have expected one or both to be improved in 2024 (and perhaps they will be by the end), but so far both have been horrifically bad (YSU is 2-17 and Cornell is 2-9).

ETA: In your other post you stated WTTE that you can see the baseball powers and SEC's hands all over RPI. Not true, though, since it was created for basketball and ported over to baseball after the fact. There is no pre-season bias built into it, it starts out assuming all teams are equal and goes from there. Any disadvantage we have this season is strictly due to how we chose to schedule.

In baseball... location matters. Cold weather schools play more road games. If all teams' road/home ratio was same... it wouldn't matter as much.

Other factors making it a flawed (not worthless) system is non-rev sports don't travel too far. So... not "enough" cross pollinating for opponent's & opponent's of opponent's winning % to meet an apples to apples calculation.

It's fine as "a single factor" among many for committee to consider. However... history has shown committee appears to give it a lot of weight.

 

[gtbeak]

In baseball... location matters. Cold weather schools play more road games. If all teams' road/home ratio was same... it wouldn't matter as much.

Other factors making it a flawed (not worthless) system is non-rev sports don't travel too far. So... not "enough" cross pollinating for opponent's & opponent's of opponent's winning % to meet an apples to apples calculation.

It's fine as "a single factor" among many for committee to consider. However... history has shown committee appears to give it a lot of weight.

Your point about lack of cross-pollination is correct. I have never dove deeply into the discussion, but it is given as a reason that the west coast schools are not well represented in the RPI rankings. The claim is made that their RPIs are penalized by the lower number of schools available to play mid-week compared to the east coast schools. I've never cared enough to really look at the argument.

As to the 1.3 and 0.7 weighting factors, that doesn't even make sense. A factor of 1.3 would be correct if the home team wins 61.5% of the games (close to correct, I can buy that one), but 0.7 would be indicative of the home team winning 71.4% of games (not even close). Road wins appear to be credited fairly close to correctly, but home wins are discounted much more than they should be.

 

[FredJacket]

Your point about lack of cross-pollination is correct. I have never dove deeply into the discussion, but it is given as a reason that the west coast schools are not well represented in the RPI rankings. The claim is made that their RPIs are penalized by the lower number of schools available to play mid-week compared to the east coast schools. I've never cared enough to really look at the argument.

As to the 1.3 and 0.7 weighting factors, that doesn't even make sense. A factor of 1.3 would be correct if the home team wins 61.5% of the games (close to correct, I can buy that one), but 0.7 would be indicative of the home team winning 71.4% of games (not even close). Road wins appear to be credited fairly close to correctly, but home wins are discounted much more than they should be.

We won 2.1 games this weekend. Weird... isn't it?

Ga Tech is 15-4... wait no.. 11.7-4.3

Notre Dame is 10-8... wait no.. 13.7-5.6

 

[gtbeak]

We won 2.1 games this weekend. Weird... isn't it?

Ga Tech is 15-4... wait no.. 11.7-4.3

Notre Dame is 10-8... wait no.. 13.7-5.6

And we've been cheated out of 1.5 wins by the fact that home wins are discounted too much (that 0.7 should be 0.813 if you assume that the 1.3 is correct for road weighting). I guess that is true for all schools, but is still annoying to me.

 

[ibeattetris]

This is a still of the game winning home run in the second game. Considering the launch angle, I still can't believe this ball got out.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Absolutely love this.

Team chemistry this year is just different in a much better way.
Coach Hall seems to be more reinvigorated. I know many aren't necessarily fans of coach however I can say with absolutely NO DOUBTS that parents and players (Including the BIG ALUM -Mark Texiera) completely love Coach Hall as I've spoken to many past and current parents. Personally I think this team is slowly being turned over to Coach Ramsey little by little as a future coach in waiting. JMO.

I love the make-up of this team.
Depth and talent.

This sweep says more about Tech than it does about NC State. We just swept a likely tournament team.

Our RPI moved up to 77 from 91 however ugag just got swept and they sit at 33. What a joke.
Before today's sweep, warren nolan's site predicted Tech to go 12-18 in the conference. After the sweep, they now project to go 10-20. What an absolute joke.

I like how this team is playing. Need to keep it rolling against Ga State as midweek games are very important.

I'm not even going to talk about unCheat cause State is next and I'll be at Panthersville to watch tech win 9 straight!!!
go get em BOYS!!!

Hall's detractors, like myself, love what he has done for the program. It is not that we are not fans. We, and maybe I am speaking for myself, believe it is just time for him to retire. He has not won a regional since 2006. Given the talent that has gone through the program over the past 17 years, that is criminal.

I am a big fan of the team this year and love the chemistry. Hopefully, they can maintain the level of over the past eight games and we get to play games in June this year.

 

[78pike]

Have we seen the last of Giesler? The way Kerce is playing at 3rd base there is no way they are going to sit him unless he goes into a prolonged slump. Bobby Z seems to have a lock on the DH role. I guess if Cam J goes to the mound he could be a late game replacement at first base.

 

[LargeFO]

" I know many aren't necessarily fans of coach however I can say with absolutely NO DOUBTS that parents and players (Including the BIG ALUM -Mark Texiera) completely love Coach Hall as I've spoken to many past and current parents."

I mean, yes, that may well be part of the issue. Money doesn't always mean you're making the right overall decisions for the program.

 

[gtbeak]

Have we seen the last of Giesler? The way Kerce is playing at 3rd base there is no way they are going to sit him unless he goes into a prolonged slump. Bobby Z seems to have a lock on the DH role. I guess if Cam J goes to the mound he could be a late game replacement at first base.

Nice problem to have, isn't it?!?

IMO, once Giesler is healthy, you have to get him in the lineup. As I've mentioned in other posts (or it may have been in chat), I would start a rotation where one of Giesler, Kerce, Jones, Yunger, Zmarzlak, Brosius is on the bench each game. Of course you don't make a move like this when the lineup is going like it has the last week or so, but we also know the lineup will not continue at that rate. It's baseball, the team will hit a slump. But I also know that CDH would not agree with me, he is one who likes to run essentially the same lineup out there everyday until forced to change.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Have we seen the last of Giesler? The way Kerce is playing at 3rd base there is no way they are going to sit him unless he goes into a prolonged slump. Bobby Z seems to have a lock on the DH role. I guess if Cam J goes to the mound he could be a late game replacement at first base.

Giesler not in lineup this afternoon. No idea when he's not day to day.

 

[LargeFO]

Giesler not in lineup this afternoon. No idea when he's not day to day.

I believe he might be month-to-month

 

[Techcaster572]

Hall's detractors, like myself, love what he has done for the program. It is not that we are not fans. We, and maybe I am speaking for myself, believe it is just time for him to retire. He has not won a regional since 2006. Given the talent that has gone through the program over the past 17 years, that is criminal.

I am a big fan of the team this year and love the chemistry. Hopefully, they can maintain the level of over the past eight games and we get to play games in June this year.

You'd probably be surprised that I tend to agree with you. At this time, its up to him to exit during the time he so chooses.

Believe me, I was at that 2006 super regional that put us in Omaha.
No reasons why Tech hasn't won a regional in that time frame.

But, since he is our coach, I love that he seems to be reinvigorated.

 

[THWG]

You'd probably be surprised that I tend to agree with you. At this time, its up to him to exit during the time he so chooses.

Believe me, I was at that 2006 super regional that put us in Omaha.
No reasons why Tech hasn't won a regional in that time frame.

But, since he is our coach, I love that he seems to be reinvigorated.

I was at that super regional too when I was 8. I'm ready to watch us win another one in person. I got to be a bat boy for one game during that year too and have a mini helmet signed by all of the players and coaches.

 

[Techcaster572]

" I know many aren't necessarily fans of coach however I can say with absolutely NO DOUBTS that parents and players (Including the BIG ALUM -Mark Texiera) completely love Coach Hall as I've spoken to many past and current parents."

I mean, yes, that may well be part of the issue. Money doesn't always mean you're making the right overall decisions for the program.

100% Truth.

Parents and Players absolutely love Coach Hall. No matter we feel about him, the players love him.

I met Tim Borden's dad when we traveled to Clemson and he had nothing positive to say about the louisville coach but he absolutely gushed over Coach Hall. Tim was here one year.
IJS

Believe me that J. Batt sees that. I'm also certain that J. Batt's focus are the money generating revenue sports in basketball and football. Not certain he wants to pay a coach to retire and bring in another.

I'm thinking he's waiting to let Hall decide.

 

[Techcaster572]

Giesler not in lineup this afternoon. No idea when he's not day to day.

My guess is his season is likely over.
At this point, I'd be shocked to see him again this year.
Hope I'm wrong.