Mostly “Fire Geoff Collins”, some reminiscing, maybe bourbon or other distractions

[Northeast Stinger]

Not true. The overall winning percentage of GT football is .569. If you subtract the CGC years, it's .576. CPJs record was .582 at GT. Not only did he exceed the historical average, but he took us to two Orange Bowls in the process. He also owns two 11 win seasons, and in the history of GT football. 10+ wins are exceedingly rare. The fact that he did this even with a couple of mediocre seasons and one snake bit season speaks even more to how great a coach he was. It's not easy to win at schools like GT. When you can win big a few times like CPJ did it's a sign of a great coach.

And, to drill down one more time, the data points of past performance suggest that CPJ could have continued that same level of success or exceeded it if he had gotten the same level of media support, recruiting resources and donor backing that CGC has received. The problem with CGC is that even with all the wind at his back in his first three years we have zero data points indicating he actually knows how to win.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

With all the comments on our threads about defense I want to try one more time to connect a few data points.

Some people say Collins is a defensive genius and point to his time at Mississippi State.

Others will point to the total trashing of that same defense by Tech in the Orange Bowl.

Some will fire back that CGC was not on the sidelines for that game having left two weeks before the game.

Totally aside from the question of whether a defense should have a total meltdown because the architect is not present for one game, this now raises the question of whether the Collins defensive resume was overrated.

Here is what we currently know. The defense has declined each year with Collins on the sideline. If Collins is a defensive genius then it begs the question as to why he would stand by passively and watch his defense crumble into a pile of dust. He either wasn’t the defensive genius he built himself up to be or he can only handle a narrowly defined role on any football staff.

The data points suggest to me that CGC is not a good manager, does not know how to divide his time between different HC responsibilities, and may in fact do better when he is not responsible for a whole program. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt on this to be sure.

Questions about whether tweaking the staff and finding people to take over various responsibilities are interesting but they beg the question of what role would CGC be good in. I think CGC could be successful in a very defined and limited role but I have never in my lifetime heard of a head coach being relegated to such a role.

To be clear, his role would be to recruit, be a cheerleader and friend to the players, and continue to promote the ATL and media presence. Perhaps he could be a little more hands on with the defense too but that is now an open question.

I don’t see how we “get from here to there” with the current head coach but that may be a lack of imagination on my part.

Other Data points are that he had a VERY good defense in 2016 at UF. He had a mediocre D in 2017, but that UF team was terrible in a variety of ways, mainly on the offensive side, and Collins D was still good enough to get him a look as a HC.

Was CGC overrated? Possibly. He was nominated for the Broyle's award multiple times, and while that in itself proves nothing, it's also not nothing.

IMO, his biggest failings at GT so far are twofold: Game management and the defense. Game management can be learned, and if I were him I'd have a paid assistant out there helping him learn it ASAP. Dabo sucked as a game manager as well, and he was able to overcome it. The defensive issues are going to need an overhaul. I see no path forward for GT and CGC that includes Thacker. If CGC retains him, I think we see both fired at the end of 2022. If we get a new DC and make some significant progress on D, then I think Collins gets a shot at 2023. Either way, if we aren't bowling by 2023 CGC is gone. He also won't survive another 3-4 win season either. I think under the right circumstances he could survive a 5 win 2022, but the defense has to show signs of life before any of that can happen.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Misery loves company. That's all this blurb is. You are miserable because we are losing and the only right answer is for everyone else associated with GT football to be as miserable as you are. That's sounds silly when said that way, doesn't it? That's because it is silly. It's also true. I've never coached football, but I've both played baseball through the college level and coached competitive league youth baseball teams for years. When my youth struggle through a series of losses, I keep the positive reinforcement going. For a lot of players, making them feel miserable for losing a game just isn't productive. We have a discussion about why we lost and then we put it behind us. Same with the wins. It's not a bad thing.

If you don't like it, that's a personal issue, but it is not a sign that players don't care or that the coaching staff isn't coaching. It's just a miserable fan base wanting everyone else associated with the team to be miserable as well.

Well, to be fair, none of us knows what is really going on in the locker room. Everyone is conjecturing based on two data points, what the coach says and what is happening on the field. It’s easy to see why some might draw a negative conclusion. I suspect we will know sooner rather than later what’s actually going on in the locker room.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

And, to drill down one more time, the data points of past performance suggest that CPJ could have continued that same level of success or exceeded it if he had gotten the same level of media support, recruiting resources and donor backing that CGC has received. The problem with CGC is that even with all the wind at his back in his first three years we have zero data points indicating he actually knows how to win.

There's actually no data to suggest that, just conjecture. I agree with you on the premise, but it's only a premise. None of the data points ever suggested the demise of Bowden at FSU or Beamer at VT. Sometimes teams quit winning for the most random of reasons. I think CPJ would have turned it around, but other than faith in his system and coaching ability, relying on previous seasons wins for proof is a fools errand.

 

[GTcanWINagain]

Is it just me or does he look like a badass HC?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Well, to be fair, none of us knows what is really going on in the locker room. Everyone is conjecturing based on two data points, what the coach says and what is happening on the field. It’s easy to see why some might draw a negative conclusion. I suspect we will know sooner rather than later what’s actually going on in the locker room.

We have no need to know what's going on in that locker room, and it doesn't change the point of my post. We are projecting our feelings on the players and getting upset when they don't mirror us. That's a fan base issue, not a team issue.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Other Data points are that he had a VERY good defense in 2016 at UF. He had a mediocre D in 2017, but that UF team was terrible in a variety of ways, mainly on the offensive side, and Collins D was still good enough to get him a look as a HC.

Was CGC overrated? Possibly. He was nominated for the Broyle's award multiple times, and while that in itself proves nothing, it's also not nothing.

IMO, his biggest failings at GT so far are twofold: Game management and the defense. Game management can be learned, and if I were him I'd have a paid assistant out there helping him learn it ASAP. Dabo sucked as a game manager as well, and he was able to overcome it. The defensive issues are going to need an overhaul. I see no path forward for GT and CGC that includes Thacker. If CGC retains him, I think we see both fired at the end of 2022. If we get a new DC and make some significant progress on D, then I think Collins gets a shot at 2023. Either way, if we aren't bowling by 2023 CGC is gone. He also won't survive another 3-4 win season either. I think under the right circumstances he could survive a 5 win 2022, but the defense has to show signs of life before any of that can happen.

That’s helpful.

There’s one nagging problem about his record. He has now been at Tech longer than he was at either Florida or Mississippi State. You can’t say he hasn’t had enough time at Tech while at the same time saying he was totally responsible for the the success at other places while he was there for less time. You see the problem?

Now, if you start trying to throw in what he did or did not inherit at each school you only dig the hole deeper. At best that means CGC succeeds where others have already done the work for him and he has never in fact ever built a program in his lifetime.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

We have no need to know what's going on in that locker room, and it doesn't change the point of my post. We are projecting our feelings on the players and getting upset when they don't mirror us. That's a fan base issue, not a team issue.

Unless we find out that what is happening in the locker room confirms the feelings of some of our more miserable fans

 

[Northeast Stinger]

There's actually no data to suggest that, just conjecture. I agree with you on the premise, but it's only a premise. None of the data points ever suggested the demise of Bowden at FSU or Beamer at VT. Sometimes teams quit winning for the most random of reasons. I think CPJ would have turned it around, but other than faith in his system and coaching ability, relying on previous seasons wins for proof is a fools errand.

Don’t disagree just making the point that we have more data to support one premise than we do the other.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

That’s helpful.

There’s one nagging problem about his record. He has now been at Tech longer than he was at either Florida or Mississippi State. You can’t say he hasn’t had enough time at Tech while at the same time saying he was totally responsible for the the success at other places while he was there for less time. You see the problem?

Now, if you start trying to throw in what he did or did not inherit at each school you only dig the hole deeper. At best that means CGC succeeds where others have already done the work for him and he has never in fact ever built a program in his lifetime.

He's also a HC at GT, not a DC. It's entirely possible that if he was able to focus solely on defense we'd be a lot better. Unfortunately, the offense is where a lot of attention has necessarily been focused. I wrote off the defense in 2019 to the fact that they were on the field all the time due to the offensive changeover. In 2020, we improved slightly on defense (per DFEI) but were still bad. Again, with the COVID year I was willing to cut some slack. This year we have actually regressed and there is absolutely no excuse for it. Unless Collins is going to be his own DC, and with his need to be a better game manager I would highly NOT suggest that, then he needs to find a new DC ASAP.

My gut feeling is we will say goodbye to Thacker this Sunday.

 

[whitegoldsphinx]

We have no need to know what's going on in that locker room, and it doesn't change the point of my post. We are projecting our feelings on the players and getting upset when they don't mirror us. That's a fan base issue, not a team issue.

We are playing poorly because of the fans?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

We are playing poorly because of the fans?

Who said that?

I said we have no need to know what goes on in the locker room, and that our "need" for the players to show a "proper level of contrition" after a loss is a projection on our part. You should reread the posts you are referring to before making bad assumptions...

 

[bobongo]

There is never a good year to change coaches. There will always be a pile of openings with only a few names out there. If TStan is a good leader, he has an up and comer in his pocket. Hopefully, he won’t fail twice in a row.

We hear the same thing every year, that there are too many openings and too few "names". There are never enough big names to go around. The simple solution is to find a little name that will one day become big. Plenty of those around, and all we have to do is find one. That's where the AD earns his keep. We don't need a name; we need a coach.

 

[RamblinRed]

Can we please stop arguing over Collins and Johnson. That is all basically irrelevant. Johnson hasn't been here for 3 yrs. I wanted Johnson's teams to win every game when he was our coach. I want Collins' teams to win every game now.

When Johnson decided to retire it was not a big secret that the important donors did not want another 3O coach, that was not an option. I also don't think that if Collins ultimately fails and we have to replace him that we will go to a 3O coach. I don't think the money men will support that.

The only comment I will make on GT football coaches in general is that due to the limitations at GT (alumni size, budget, majors, etc) I believe you have to have an above average coach at GT for GT to have a chance at winning seasons. Not all programs are created equal and GT is below the median in alot of the measures for a P5 job. IMO Ross, O'Leary, Gailey, and Johnson were all above average college coaches. I hope Collins will join them, even though the early results are not promising.

What concerns me most about the current program is that the idea was a quick improvement in the defense (given who was hired as HC) who help cushion the blow of having to transition the offense. To this point it has been the opposite. This year's defense is likely to go down as the worst one so far this Century at GT. And Collins three defenses will rank as three of the four worst of this century at GT according to DFEI. The secondary has gotten worse every year -with alot of the same players. That suggests an issue more with coaching than with players.

We also knew that Collins was going to be learning on the job, but it is disappointing to see the same in-game coaching issues pop up after 3 years.

We can also stop talking about firing him after this season. That is not going to happen. The money is not there to do that and the idea that you will lose enough ticket sales where you would do it really is not seriously weighed as the majority of the money for the budget comes from the TV contract (also, there is largely a floor for season ticket sales even when a program is not doing well). When the day comes that we make a change GT is not that attractive of a job. This is not a Top 25 college football job, right now it isn't even a top half of the P5 job. The AD is likely going to be looking at G5 HC's and P5 assts as the pool of candidates.

I expect there will be changes made after the season, but I don't know what they will be. Schools often wait until after signing day to announce any changes so it doesn't impact the recruiting class. It will not surprise me if any changes are not publicly announced until after signing day.

 

[Pointer]

..

Can we please stop arguing over Collins and Johnson. That is all basically irrelevant. Johnson hasn't been here for 3 yrs. I wanted Johnson's teams to win every game when he was our coach. I want Collins' teams to win every game now.

When Johnson decided to retire it was not a big secret that the important donors did not want another 3O coach, that was not an option. I also don't think that if Collins ultimately fails and we have to replace him that we will go to a 3O coach. I don't think the money men will support that.

The only comment I will make on GT football coaches in general is that due to the limitations at GT (alumni size, budget, majors, etc) I believe you have to have an above average coach at GT for GT to have a chance at winning seasons. Not all programs are created equal and GT is below the median in alot of the measures for a P5 job. IMO Ross, O'Leary, Gailey, and Johnson were all above average college coaches. I hope Collins will join them, even though the early results are not promising.

What concerns me most about the current program is that the idea was a quick improvement in the defense (given who was hired as HC) who help cushion the blow of having to transition the offense. To this point it has been the opposite. This year's defense is likely to go down as the worst one so far this Century at GT. And Collins three defenses will rank as three of the four worst of this century at GT according to DFEI. The secondary has gotten worse every year -with alot of the same players. That suggests an issue more with coaching than with players.

We also knew that Collins was going to be learning on the job, but it is disappointing to see the same in-game coaching issues pop up after 3 years.

We can also stop talking about firing him after this season. That is not going to happen. The money is not there to do that and the idea that you will lose enough ticket sales where you would do it really is not seriously weighed as the majority of the money for the budget comes from the TV contract (also, there is largely a floor for season ticket sales even when a program is not doing well). When the day comes that we make a change GT is not that attractive of a job. This is not a Top 25 college football job, right now it isn't even a top half of the P5 job. The AD is likely going to be looking at G5 HC's and P5 assts as the pool of candidates.

I expect there will be changes made after the season, but I don't know what they will be. Schools often wait until after signing day to announce any changes so it doesn't impact the recruiting class. It will not surprise me if any changes are not publicly announced until after signing day.

Can anyone think of some solid coordinators who would be willing to come coach for this guy given the perceived job security of CGC, let alone how poorly he's performed as a head coach? The only thing that may sway them is he has been loyal to his coordinators so far, hasn't blamed the situation on the staff.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

When Johnson decided to retire it was not a big secret that the important donors did not want another 3O coach, that was not an option.

 

[GTcanWINagain]

MEMORIES….

 

[kg01]

Can we please stop arguing over Collins and Johnson. That is all basically irrelevant. Johnson hasn't been here for 3 yrs. I wanted Johnson's teams to win every game when he was our coach. I want Collins' teams to win every game now.

When Johnson decided to retire it was not a big secret that the important donors did not want another 3O coach, that was not an option. I also don't think that if Collins ultimately fails and we have to replace him that we will go to a 3O coach. I don't think the money men will support that.

The only comment I will make on GT football coaches in general is that due to the limitations at GT (alumni size, budget, majors, etc) I believe you have to have an above average coach at GT for GT to have a chance at winning seasons. Not all programs are created equal and GT is below the median in alot of the measures for a P5 job. IMO Ross, O'Leary, Gailey, and Johnson were all above average college coaches. I hope Collins will join them, even though the early results are not promising.

What concerns me most about the current program is that the idea was a quick improvement in the defense (given who was hired as HC) who help cushion the blow of having to transition the offense. To this point it has been the opposite. This year's defense is likely to go down as the worst one so far this Century at GT. And Collins three defenses will rank as three of the four worst of this century at GT according to DFEI. The secondary has gotten worse every year -with alot of the same players. That suggests an issue more with coaching than with players.

We also knew that Collins was going to be learning on the job, but it is disappointing to see the same in-game coaching issues pop up after 3 years.

We can also stop talking about firing him after this season. That is not going to happen. The money is not there to do that and the idea that you will lose enough ticket sales where you would do it really is not seriously weighed as the majority of the money for the budget comes from the TV contract (also, there is largely a floor for season ticket sales even when a program is not doing well). When the day comes that we make a change GT is not that attractive of a job. This is not a Top 25 college football job, right now it isn't even a top half of the P5 job. The AD is likely going to be looking at G5 HC's and P5 assts as the pool of candidates.

I expect there will be changes made after the season, but I don't know what they will be. Schools often wait until after signing day to announce any changes so it doesn't impact the recruiting class. It will not surprise me if any changes are not publicly announced until after signing day.

Thank you for this post. I've largely stayed out of the fray, outside a few emotion-fueled yet hilarious get-bak coach comments.

But I generally agree with everything you're saying. Folks need to stop acting like, if a change is made, we'd be looking at bringing in a homerun hire. Likely scenario is a lightly-known, lower level guy.

I think a lot of folks have their heads in the clouds and aren't really thinking things through. Hopefully folks actually read what you wrote because it's all salient and sobering yet steeped in truth.

We're likely looking at coordinator changes, which I don't think anyone can argue aren't warranted by results.

 

[bobongo]

..

Can anyone think of some solid coordinators who would be willing to come coach for this guy given the perceived job security of CGC, let alone how poorly he's performed as a head coach? The only thing that may sway them is he has been loyal to his coordinators so far, hasn't blamed the situation on the staff.

Absolutely. The biggest problem is, who is going to be willing to come here with Collins' head on a chopping block?

 

[Pointer]

View attachment 11675MEMORIES….

Nightmares