Mostly “Fire Geoff Collins”, some reminiscing, maybe bourbon or other distractions

[Heisman's Ghost]

I understand your point, and I think you could make a case that we could be 1-9 instead of 3-7 just as easily. We are not getting blown out week after week. Six of those seven losses are by a total of 38 points. It's really not too difficult to find plays with inadequate execution that could have gone the other way.

Imagine the frustration Dodd must have felt in 1960. The Jackets went 5-5 with the five losses being by a TOTAL of 11 points including 1 point losses to Alabama and UGA.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

There are alot of teams that can claim they were close to being 8-2 if all the key plays they screwed up on went the other way. Heck, Nebraska could be 10-0 with four top 15 wins. Instead they are 3-7 like us and their coach is trying to figure out how he didnt get fired.

He didn't get fired because he was a former quarterback, a golden boy who had paid his dues at Central Florida and was ready to restore the glory days of the Big Red, the Black Shirts, and so forth. Personally, I thought it was a good hire and the Cornhuskers had a lot of competition for him. Florida wanted him badly. He has not worked out. It happens.

 

[ibeattetris]

I understand your point, and I think you could make a case that we could be 1-9 instead of 3-7 just as easily. We are not getting blown out week after week. Six of those seven losses are by a total of 38 points. It's really not too difficult to find plays with inadequate execution that could have gone the other way.

There was an interesting From the Rumble Seat article that went into the statistics that try to quantify the "if only a few plays were different we would have won". https://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2021/11/9/22771325/tuesday-thoughts-11-8-closing-the-gap
Essentially, there is a stat called "Post Game Win Expectancy" that tries to extrapolate how likely you were to win based on the statistics of the game. From the article

NIU: 63.4% (expected margin: 2.9)

Kennesaw: 100% (expected margin: 35.0)

Clemson: 21.7% (expected margin: -6.6)

UNC: 87.8% (expected margin: 9.9)

Pittsburgh: 0.8% (expected margin: -20.5)

Duke: 67.6% (expected margin: 3.9)

Virginia: 18.7% (expected margin: -7.5)

Virginia Tech: 13.7% (expected margin: -9.3)

Miami: 1.0% (expected margin: -19.4)

(Boston college was an 11% PGWE)

Based on this stat, NIU is the only game we were "unlucky" to lose, but we should never have been in a situation where 37% to lose was possible. It is easy for us to find the few plays that could have been big breaks for us, while ignoring the copious amount of big breaks we had along the way to get us in the situation to begin with.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

We could be "8-2"? Sure, if we were playing in the MAC but the gods of football tend to be unforgiving to those teams that are manifestly careless with the football, commit multiple penalties and have a defense that leaves receivers open by 5, 10, or even 15 yards. A blind man could see that the one guy who could really hurt you last week was Flowers and damn if we do not let him go about his merry way.

Upon further review, somehow Flowers "only" caught 2 passes, both for TDs, for something like 80 plus yards but then so did just about every other Eagle receiver post similarly gaudy stats. The worst part was the quarterback running for 80 something yards on just a handful of carries. Ridiculous.

 

[WreckinGT]

He didn't get fired because he was a former quarterback, a golden boy who had paid his dues at Central Florida and was ready to restore the glory days of the Big Red, the Black Shirts, and so forth. Personally, I thought it was a good hire and the Cornhuskers had a lot of competition for him. Florida wanted him badly. He has not worked out. It happens.

I have no problem with the hire. Seemed like a slam dunk at the time. Four years without a bowl game at a program like Nebraska and a potential 3-9 finish in year 4 is pretty rough. Im really surprised he is surviving that.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

At the end of each season, one of the ways Vegas predicts future results for a team is to "adjust" their record based on the results of one score games. For instance, if a team goes 10-2 and wins 8 times by 7-8 points or less and both losses are by less than 7-8 points, then they would assume a 5-5 record in those 10 games. The Adjusted Record would then be 7-5. (Subtract the 5 wins and add the three additional losses.) Close records like this generally indicate that a team is either overperforming or underperforming. I've kept up with these numbers over the years and most our teams perform to expectations, i.e. 7 wins or so. In 2009 we overperformed and in 2015 we underperformed. 2014, believe it or not, was spot on. We were just that good.

Collins years so far, after adjusted records are 4-8 in 2019, 3-7 in 2020, and 5-5 in 2021. Were we actually 5-5 right now we'd probably still be disappointed, but we wouldn't be as off the chart mad as most of us are. As @orientalnc and others have been saying, we are a lot closer to turning this thing around than it seems. As much as I hate money downs, Juice Crews, and all the other peripheral nonsense associated with this program, it does appear that he is making progress to me.

I know for many of you nothing I say will matter. Your mind is made up and nothing short of a firing will help. For those of you still on the ledge, all I can say is back up a bit. Collins may well fail, and it may turn out that he was a horrible hire, but right now there is some light at the end of the tunnel, we just need to be patient for another season and I think we will finally start to see the results we are looking for.

 

[jgtengineer]

At the end of each season, one of the ways Vegas predicts future results for a team is to "adjust" their record based on the results of one score games. For instance, if a team goes 10-2 and wins 8 times by 7-8 points or less and both losses are by less than 7-8 points, then they would assume a 5-5 record in those 10 games. The Adjusted Record would then be 7-5. (Subtract the 5 wins and add the three additional losses.) Close records like this generally indicate that a team is either overperforming or underperforming. I've kept up with these numbers over the years and most our teams perform to expectations, i.e. 7 wins or so. In 2009 we overperformed and in 2015 we underperformed. 2014, believe it or not, was spot on. We were just that good.

Collins years so far, after adjusted records are 4-8 in 2019, 3-7 in 2020, and 5-5 in 2021. Were we actually 5-5 right now we'd probably still be disappointed, but we wouldn't be as off the chart mad as most of us are. As @orientalnc and others have been saying, we are a lot closer to turning this thing around than it seems. As much as I hate money downs, Juice Crews, and all the other peripheral nonsense associated with this program, it does appear that he is making progress to me.

I know for many of you nothing I say will matter. Your mind is made up and nothing short of a firing will help. For those of you still on the ledge, all I can say is back up a bit. Collins may well fail, and it may turn out that he was a horrible hire, but right now there is some light at the end of the tunnel, we just need to be patient for another season and I think we will finally start to see the results we are looking for.

But no one will be left to see it.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

But no one will be left to see it.

I really think you are underselling the fan base. There are more of us that care than post on this board.

 

[jgtengineer]

I really think you are underselling the fan base. There are more of us that care than post on this board.

Mate our attendance is falling rapidly.

 

[stech81]

Mate our attendance is falling rapidly.

Really it wasn't good at any game this year.

 

[GTBandman]

your vegas adjusted is probably about right. I think most of believe we would be 5-5 or even a little better if our game day coaching was even mediocre. That is why we are so ticked off.

 

[cthenrys]

Really it wasn't good at any game this year.

Kicking off the season with a loss to NIU isn't really a recipe for juice in the stands...

 

[jojatk]

Fine than keep him as DC

Is that what you got out of what I said? That we should keep Thacker? I actually, explicitly said that I hope CGC will agree to make changes in the staff. Whether Thacker is a puppet or not I think he needs to go and we need to bring in someone who can be a real DC. I'm not sure I can be any clearer than that.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Is there any justification for this staff to continue to play Swilling, Thomas, and Carpenter on defense? We have watched this trio get burned/confused/blown by for 3 solid years. Why are they still playing? I can’t bus the argument that they are the best players at their positions.

ND and UGA will do what we’ve seen for 3 straight years. They will have a balanced attack, but whenever they need a play they will throw against those guys with success. And then Collins will tell us about heart and guts and battling. It’s just bizarro world at this point on why the coaches keep them on the field. It’s like playing the same RB’s every game who average 4 fumbles a game. It doesn’t make sense.

 

[jojatk]

I've interpreted it as Thacker is basically a stand-in for CGC and will step to the side whenever CGC wants to put his hands on the defense. In other words, everything Thacker knows about being a DC came from CGC, so Thacker is basically an incomplete copy of CGC as far as being a DC. This lets the defense be built the way CGC wants, while he's free to be the CEO/face of the program. This is also why I really doubt CGC will fire Thacker and bring in anyone remotely established as a DC. He would lose the hands-on availability, and would basically have to let the new DC build the defense without a majority of CGC's input.

So we agree on what a puppet is. Again, I'm not sure I can tell whether Thacker is or is not a puppet. But, to be honest, I don't really care. I want a DC who will make our defense better and if that means our HC has to give that person more control than Thacker has then that's what should happen. And if he won't do it then I think he will be hastening his departure unless a DRAMATIC improvement in our defense happens between this season and next and I wouldn't bet a quarter on the likelihood of that happening without any changes. I was hopeful when Thacker was originally brought in that having a HC who had been an established DC would help fill in any gaps but clearly that hasn't happened.

 

[stech81]

Is that what you got out of what I said? That we should keep Thacker? I actually, explicitly said that I hope CGC will agree to make changes in the staff. Whether Thacker is a puppet or not I think he needs to go and we need to bring in someone who can be a real DC. I'm not sure I can be any clearer than that.

Ok sorry , I also think Thacker needs to go. But I don't don't see CGC doing it. And I don't see STand making him.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

At the end of each season, one of the ways Vegas predicts future results for a team is to "adjust" their record based on the results of one score games. For instance, if a team goes 10-2 and wins 8 times by 7-8 points or less and both losses are by less than 7-8 points, then they would assume a 5-5 record in those 10 games. The Adjusted Record would then be 7-5. (Subtract the 5 wins and add the three additional losses.) Close records like this generally indicate that a team is either overperforming or underperforming. I've kept up with these numbers over the years and most our teams perform to expectations, i.e. 7 wins or so. In 2009 we overperformed and in 2015 we underperformed. 2014, believe it or not, was spot on. We were just that good.

Collins years so far, after adjusted records are 4-8 in 2019, 3-7 in 2020, and 5-5 in 2021. Were we actually 5-5 right now we'd probably still be disappointed, but we wouldn't be as off the chart mad as most of us are. As @orientalnc and others have been saying, we are a lot closer to turning this thing around than it seems. As much as I hate money downs, Juice Crews, and all the other peripheral nonsense associated with this program, it does appear that he is making progress to me.

I know for many of you nothing I say will matter. Your mind is made up and nothing short of a firing will help. For those of you still on the ledge, all I can say is back up a bit. Collins may well fail, and it may turn out that he was a horrible hire, but right now there is some light at the end of the tunnel, we just need to be patient for another season and I think we will finally start to see the results we are looking for.

I wish I could believe this but the fact is we have a losing record in a conference that is a shadow of its former self. Sharing the basement with Duke is not a sign of progress. Not buying this thesis of "adjusted records".

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I wish I could believe this but the fact is we have a losing record in a conference that is a shadow of its former self. Sharing the basement with Duke is not a sign of progress. Not buying this thesis of "adjusted records".

I agree. Close only counts in horseshoes and atomic bombs.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

In all this back & forth about the data and the DC and who should get fired or replaced, one really important fact is missing. Change a couple of plays in each of 4 or 5 of our losses and we a winning team. It's not much consolation when the record is 3-7, but it could be 8-2. I am not saying those plays went the wrong way just by chance. We were the cause in most cases, but there is not a huge difference in our play at 3-7 and what it would have been if we were 8-2.

I hear you but this is still problematic. If the only variables were how our coaches prepared, made in-game decisions and managed the clock, then sure, maybe we get to 7 wins. The only problem is that assumes all the other variables remain static. But that is not how a multi-dimensional universe works. Do you think in all those losses we saw the best game our opponents had to offer? No, except for NIU, most of our opponents played down to our level. The fact that they ran up such big numbers has more to do with us, than them. Had we played better they might have upped their game. We are trying to hit a moving target without consistently getting our feet firmly planted. But the target is still moving regardless.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

Guys, it’s been 3 years. Collins is horrible at coaching defense. Do you really believe he has allowed his career to plummet with Thacker? Come on. Collins has been coaching defense and he is no bueno at it. The results speak for themselves. Getting rid of Thacker won’t move the needle because Thacker is not the problem.