MBB @ NC St 2/3 5:30PM EST

[MtnWasp]

Losing Kelly will hurt next year but with a couple of new pieces you can see a pathway to a good ACC team.

Do you know we are losing Kelly or is that just an assumption?

 

[YlJacket]

Assumption. Happy to be wrong

 

[Techwood Relict]

Assumption. Happy to be wrong

I'm hoping Mr. Kelly gives us and himself another year for the physical maturity. I think it would help his current game and the chance of success at his next level of play.

 

[GaTech4ever]

He had the best +/- line of any player on the team, so I guess he wasn't hurting the team that much....

I believe you, but I’d never use +/- in a single game to make a point about a player’s impact. Please find any reputable source who consistently does.

Also, I’d love if you can send the box scores you use for individual games’ +/- to see an advanced box score at the individual level. Would appreciate the opportunity to rely on the +/- column in the box score to prove how much Gapare’s on-court impact was better than George and Kelly’s.

If we did want to discuss Gapare being unplayable in the context of +/-, we’d look at his season long +/- and see he’s by far the lowest on the team. I’d never say he was unplayable based on one game anyways.

 

[Root4GT]

I believe you, but I’d never use +/- in a single game to make a point about a player’s impact. Please find any reputable source who consistently does.

Also, I’d love if you can send the box scores you use for individual games’ +/- to see an advanced box score at the individual level. Would appreciate the opportunity to rely on the +/- column in the box score to prove how much Gapare’s on-court impact was better than George and Kelly’s.

If we did want to discuss Gapare being unplayable in the context of +/-, we’d look at his season long +/- and see he’s by far the lowest on the team. I’d never say he was unplayable based on one game anyways.

So what exactly are you saying as your comments wander quite a bit.

It appeared Gapare had a good game against BCST based on +/-. There is a box score in this thread. Do you have a different box score that evaluates +/- differently?

Gapare clearly has high potential and often low production. CDS is clear he wants to turn the potential to production.

Watching yesterday I thought Gapare had an excellent 1st half and an ok 2nd half. With Ndongo and Claude both having foul trouble along with Gapare had to play 21 minutes.

 

[YlJacket]

The plus/minus is only in the individual game box scores from GT. If you want to combine them knock yourself out. Not sure what it will tell you.

To my eye - and I am more of a watch the game and use stats to confirm what I see than otherwise - but to say Gapare was the worst player on the court for GT against NCSU is pretty weird. 7 points (on 6 shots) and 5 rebounds with 1 turnover doesn't scream problem and I certainly didn't see a team leading problem with him. On offense he was good - not great - but he had the ability to help beat pressure and take his man off the dribble. Didn't try to do it a lot but it was a game where we were out of system most of the game and guys had to make plays. He did to a certain extent.

But it was on defense that he really made a difference. He closed out better than anyone else and was our best back side rim protector. He wasn't going to guard Burns or even Middlebrooks for any extended time outside of the end game - but he was all over the court more than any other defender we had.

Back to an overview of Gapare - IMHO he is a lot like Moses only further along as a sophomore. He has as much athleticism as anyone on the team - NBA level length and athleticism. He has decent skills at this point - not great or above average by any stretch - but good enough to see where he can be with some serious work in the off season. I have said it before and will say it again - his development as a stretch 4 is a big key to how this team progresses next year. For a group who watched Moses develop over 4 years I figured it wouldn't be that hard to see it here

 

[Tech93]

I must admit, from being at the game it looked like Gapare’s minutes really hurt us, especially for a stretch in the second half. His mistakes almost render him unplayable, but we’re so under-talented that I guess we let him develop with minutes.

He needs to play under control. Too many mistakes.

 

[lv20gt]

Back to an overview of Gapare - IMHO he is a lot like Moses only further along as a sophomore. He has as much athleticism as anyone on the team - NBA level length and athleticism. He has decent skills at this point - not great or above average by any stretch - but good enough to see where he can be with some serious work in the off season. I have said it before and will say it again - his development as a stretch 4 is a big key to how this team progresses next year. For a group who watched Moses develop over 4 years I figured it wouldn't be that hard to see it here

I'm not really sure if I would say he's further along than Moses as a sophomore.

Using per 40 minutes to account for difference in mpg (Moses played about 3 mpg more which is about a 20% increase)

Moses - 14.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.5 TOV, 2.7 fouls and shot 47/21/49
Gapare - 11.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .9 steals, 3.1 blocks, 1.9 TOV, 4.3 fouls and shot 35/22/59

So Gapare is better at blocks and has fewer turnovers, but he's producing less points, rebounds, and assists, fouling more, and shooting worse from the field but slightly better from the FT line. Nothing tremendously different but I I'm not sure I would say Gapare is further along.

IMO the thing I think people forget about Moses as a sophomore is he ended the year averaging 15.6/6 on 62% shooting his last 5 games, which with the benefit of hindsight certainly looks like a lightbulb moment for him. Still time left in this season but Gapare hasn't really shown a similar streak yet.

But in general, I don't think players should ever really be compared to Moses when it comes to development simply because of how abnormal his development was. IMO more realistic development paths are ones that guys like Alade Aminu, Quinton Stephens, Tadric Jackson, who all became solid contributors the level of which I think Gapare could develop to by the time he's a senior.

 

[YlJacket]

I take your point. But let’s see what the last five games look like before we use that as our comparator to Moses. I do still think he has the same athleticism and upside as Moses. To me Moses made his leap after his sophomore year when he spent the time and improved his basic skill set. Whether Gapari does that or not is to be seen but I can see it if he does put in the work

 

[Root4GT]

I'm not really sure if I would say he's further along than Moses as a sophomore.

Using per 40 minutes to account for difference in mpg (Moses played about 3 mpg more which is about a 20% increase)

Moses - 14.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.5 TOV, 2.7 fouls and shot 47/21/49
Gapare - 11.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .9 steals, 3.1 blocks, 1.9 TOV, 4.3 fouls and shot 35/22/59

So Gapare is better at blocks and has fewer turnovers, but he's producing less points, rebounds, and assists, fouling more, and shooting worse from the field but slightly better from the FT line. Nothing tremendously different but I I'm not sure I would say Gapare is further along.

IMO the thing I think people forget about Moses as a sophomore is he ended the year averaging 15.6/6 on 62% shooting his last 5 games, which with the benefit of hindsight certainly looks like a lightbulb moment for him. Still time left in this season but Gapare hasn't really shown a similar streak yet.

But in general, I don't think players should ever really be compared to Moses when it comes to development simply because of how abnormal his development was. IMO more realistic development paths are ones that guys like Alade Aminu, Quinton Stephens, Tadric Jackson, who all became solid contributors the level of which I think Gapare could develop to by the time he's a senior.

The one thing Gapare has over the three comps you listed is he is a far far more athletic young man than any of them.

His background in New Zland had him playing multiple sports prior to basketball somewhat similar to Moses. Not likely he will become the player Moses did though very few players have ever reached the ACC Player of the Year mark at GT.

Gapare is in the right place with CDS and his staff. They have the ability to teach, train and demand everything Gapare has to give.

On the NCST game he blocked 3 ****s and altered several more that ended up missing badly.

He played very well. He did have a couple of very nice drives that he failed badly on finishing. Thought the ball was going to hit the rafters on his missed dunk. Still that he got to the rim that quickly and forcefully is encouraging.

 

[Lightbulb]

He played very well. He did have a couple of very nice drives that he failed badly on finishing. Thought the ball was going to hit the rafters on his missed dunk. Still that he got to the rim that quickly and forcefully is encouraging.

He flew down the court like a gazelle, I couldn't believe how fast he got to the rim. He took off just a little too early to finish it, but it was an impressive display of his athleticism

 

[YlJacket]

He flew down the court like a gazelle, I couldn't believe how fast he got to the rim. He took off just a little too early to finish it, but it was an impressive display of his athleticism

I liked that play. We kept wondering why he kept trying to lay the ball against the backboard instead of just dunking everything.

 

[MtnWasp]

I believe you, but I’d never use +/- in a single game to make a point about a player’s impact. Please find any reputable source who consistently does.

Also, I’d love if you can send the box scores you use for individual games’ +/- to see an advanced box score at the individual level. Would appreciate the opportunity to rely on the +/- column in the box score to prove how much Gapare’s on-court impact was better than George and Kelly’s.

If we did want to discuss Gapare being unplayable in the context of +/-, we’d look at his season long +/- and see he’s by far the lowest on the team. I’d never say he was unplayable based on one game anyways.

As Yljacket points out, the +/- is a good stat to confirm or refute subjective impressions of a game. For instance, if, while watching a game, you were thinking, "Man, the team just doesn't look as good while George is off the floor," then going to the +/- stat line can be highly useful in supporting or refuting that particular observation.

Similarly, it is a highly useful stat to refute your assertion that Gapare was disrupting GT with poor play. While it doesn't indicate how much Gapare was helping the team among the oher players he was on the court with, it does provide strong evidence that Gapare was not hurting the team with his +11 line. And that was my subjective impression as well. I actually thought that was his best game he has played at GT, including the one game where he scored 20 points.

It is true generally of statistics: they can be insightful or misleading depending on the question you are wanting them to answer.

 

[GaTech4ever]

So what exactly are you saying as your comments wander quite a bit.

It appeared Gapare had a good game against BCST based on +/-. There is a box score in this thread. Do you have a different box score that evaluates +/- differently?

Gapare clearly has high potential and often low production. CDS is clear he wants to turn the potential to production.

Watching yesterday I thought Gapare had an excellent 1st half and an ok 2nd half. With Ndongo and Claude both having foul trouble along with Gapare had to play 21 minutes.

What I’m clearly saying is at the individual game level, box score +/- doesn’t matter. But if you really wanna use it as a metric, then look at a large sample size (i.e. the entire season). Which shows Gapare as the worst on the team.

Gapare had a better +/- than George and Kelly against UNC. I mean come on.

 

[GaTech4ever]

As Yljacket points out, the +/- is a good stat to confirm or refute subjective impressions of a game. For instance, if, while watching a game, you were thinking, "Man, the team just doesn't look as good while George is off the floor," then going to the +/- stat line can be highly useful in supporting or refuting that particular observation.

Similarly, it is a highly useful stat to refute your assertion that Gapare was disrupting GT with poor play. While it doesn't indicate how much Gapare was helping the team among the oher players he was on the court with, it does provide strong evidence that Gapare was not hurting the team with his +11 line. And that was my subjective impression as well. I actually thought that was his best game he has played at GT, including the one game where he scored 20 points.

It is true generally of statistics: they can be insightful or misleading depending on the question you are wanting them to answer.

Great so George barely helped the team then, and Kelly hurt the team then. Based on the +/-

 

[GaTech4ever]

As Yljacket points out, the +/- is a good stat to confirm or refute subjective impressions of a game. For instance, if, while watching a game, you were thinking, "Man, the team just doesn't look as good while George is off the floor," then going to the +/- stat line can be highly useful in supporting or refuting that particular observation.

Similarly, it is a highly useful stat to refute your assertion that Gapare was disrupting GT with poor play. While it doesn't indicate how much Gapare was helping the team among the oher players he was on the court with, it does provide strong evidence that Gapare was not hurting the team with his +11 line. And that was my subjective impression as well. I actually thought that was his best game he has played at GT, including the one game where he scored 20 points.

It is true generally of statistics: they can be insightful or misleading depending on the question you are wanting them to answer.

Gapare was neither 15 points more impactful than Kelly nor 8 points more impactful than George against UNC. Do you think he was? If not, then what’s your point?

No one uses statistics (especially +/- !!!) at an individual game level to make a point. The season long box score shows he has the worst +/- on the team, if we want a real statistic with a valid sample size.

 

[GaTech4ever]

As Yljacket points out, the +/- is a good stat to confirm or refute subjective impressions of a game.

This is proven FALSE!!! Where are you guys getting this from?

 

[GaTech4ever]

It appeared Gapare had a good game against BCST based on +/-.

You cannot use that stat to draw that conclusion. Please do some research on how basketball statistics are utilized in the modern era.

I have to exit this back and forth because NOBODY and I mean NOBODY who studies basketball for a living ever uses the stat yall are using. So I will bow out gracefully.

 

[GaTech4ever]

Now, I’ve taken it upon myself to educate you guys. Just please google it next time.

“Most plus/minus statistics have the problem of confounding a player’s performance with the performance of his four teammates (and five opponents) while on the court. Net plus/minus statistics correct for some of this problem by deducting how the team performs without the player, implying that player substitutions are uncorrelated. However, net plus/minus statistics do not account for strong correlations between teammates’ minutes on the court and systematic differences in the quality of opponents various players face.”

NBA Plus-Minus & Impact Metrics in Basketball Explained

NBA Plus-minus and all derived +/- player impact metrics explained. Plus/minus basically tracks the net changes in the score when a player is on or off

www.nbastuffer.com

“The coefficients on the player variables isolate the marginal contributions of particular players while accounting for teammates’ and opponents’ contributions. However, in general, obtaining reasonably precise estimates for these coefficients requires a large number of games.”

^ I know yall know what that means. Now we’re talking, right?

 

[GaTech4ever]

The plus/minus is only in the individual game box scores from GT. If you want to combine them knock yourself out. Not sure what it will tell you.

Basketball reference already combines them for us (I just didn’t know where to consistently find individual game +/- data) and I saw exactly what I needed to see about who’s the lowest advanced +/- on the team so far.