I watched the game vs Valpo and here are my thoughts.
First off, I wouldn't try to take too much away from any one game and in particular I don't think this was one of their better performances by any stretch. I wish I could find the full game against Drake in the conference championship, but I can only fight the highlights (extensive highlights but hard to judge too even from that).
Offense - I wasn't overly impressed. Like I said, I don't want to take too much away from one game and they did seem flat compared to the other times Ive managed to catch them. Not bad, but not particularly noteworthy. Krutwig is a smart player and capable of both scoring and facilitating but it feels like he is often in one or the other mode. If he's at the top of the key it doesn't look like he's thinking about scoring much at all. Doesn't really appear to look for the jumper from there nor does he seem that interested in trying to drive. You do need to make sure you deal with him in a roll to the basket position though because if Moses gets distracted by a dribble handoff a lob over the top is something we can see. Not dissimilar to Duke, although I doubt Krutwig will throw it down like Williams, but a layup and dunk are both worth 2. In the post he's a bit more balanced as even if he's looking to score he also usually has an eye out to see if help is coming and can pass out of the post. Otherwise they seem to have solid players capable of helping score, but not really carrying the load. If I had to chose someone else it might be Norris to worry about. Obviously on any given night a player can get hot but you can't really prepare for that type of thing. They can punish bad defense, but against better defenses I do think they will struggle some.
I would say our best bet on defense is to actually avoid the zone to start. It just invites them to do what they want to do anyways with Kurtwig facilitating from the high post. Go man, and don't help Moses. Try to limit Krutwig's playmaking ability by not giving good passing opportunities, and dare him to try and carry the load by scoring against Moses down low. If he can you adjust after. But my guess is he'll be able to score some but I'm not sure it'll be enough to force us to bring extra help. It will come down to how Moses defends him before getting the ball. If Krutwig consistently gets good position down low, which he might with how he can use his 255 lb frame, he may be able to carry the load. However Krutwig might be too smart at times, in the sense that if he gets the ball too far pushed out he might just go straight into pass mode because he recognizes the situation as being unfavorable. That's more a guess from how he appears to approach the game though. So Moses needs to battle and force him to get the ball further away.
Defensively though is a different story. They are extremely well coached and you can see the defensive principles that go into their defense and they are consistent about it. I'm not convinced they are actually the absolute best defensive team in the country, but I think they have a good argument for being the best defensive team relative to talent. I do think they might be vulnerable to more talented teams exploiting individual advantages. As good teams will do they will make adjustments, but adjustments will almost always come with a price and we'll need to be able to identify what that is. Fortunately we've been pretty good this year with adjustments, and a very experienced group should help with that.
So to that end I would hope that we try and focus the ball early to Moses, both down low, but also more extended out in iso situations to one side or the other. See how Krutwig will try to defend a faced up Moses. If he extends out then Moses can try to go around him and maybe pick up some fouls or some early slams. If he sags off, I hope Moses wouldn't settle, but instead would take a hard dribble or two right at him and then elevate straight up. It wouldn't surprise me to see Loyola dig down to him right from the get go, and if they do, put Devoe behind Moses and look for chances to drift to the corner if they dig too hard. If this were even last year I'd be worried about Moses turning it over trying to force the issue but he's much improved this year.
Otherwise, they have two really good wing defenders in Williamson and Uguak. The former was conference defensive player of the year, and the latter has the size, athleticism, and, like everyone else, coaching to be really good. I expect them to try and keep Williamson on Jose and Uguak on Usher. That is another reason I would have Mike be the guy behind Moses because his defender is likely to be someone who is not one of them, and so less likely to make a play and/or more likely to lose track of Devoe to try and make one. Usher vs Uguak will be fun to watch, and I think if they stick to that it'll be hard for Usher to make too big an impact, in the half court. But if they ever switch off or when Uguak sits, we should hunt that matchup as I think Ushers size, athleticism, and somewhat new found ability to finish near the rim (not at the rim, near it) will be useful. Jose vs Williamson will be a fun battle. I'm reminded of that quote from Jose concerning how he wanted to go find whoever won the dPoY (if it wasn't him) and score on them. It'll be fun to see that match up on both ends.
lastly, here is my hot take. Kyle Sturdivant sets a new career high this game. The 5th player, other than Jose, Mike, Ush, and Moses, is likely to get the weakest individual perimeter defender on the court from them, and I think Kyle has the ability to take that type of player off the dribble, and without a real rim protecting presence, and likely reluctance of Krutwig to leave Moses, it should leave opportunities for Kyle to finish right at the rim. Now, is it bold to predict someone who has scored in double digits just twice in his career will go for 15+ against the statistical best defensive team? Absolutely. But hot takes need to be spicy.
