Interesting article from AJC

Vespidae

Vespidae

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,342
Location
Auburn, AL
The article reminds me that more games are lost than those that are won.

Games are lost due to penalties (Citadel), missed assignments, and poor coaching decisions.

You’re beat when you are completely outmatched physically.

I think this year we lost two because we beat ourselves. As we recruit and gain strength, we should improve.
 
Augusta_Jacket

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
8,121
Location
Augusta, Georgia
I've long said you can look at the record in one possession games to see how truly good a team is. Some teams overachieve and some are snakebitten. Luck plays a small role in football, but over time tends to even out. I've been tracking this every year since 2002 for GT, and our overall record since then is 130-102. Our record in one possession games is 45-44 during that span. (CCG went 16-13, CPJ went 28-31, and CGC is 3-2 so far.) When a season is grossly out of whack in the one possession W/L total, you can expect a regression to the mean. For instance, CPJ started out his career her at GT with a 1P W/L record of 10-3 in 2008-2009. That indicates that the football bounced decidedly our way for those two seasons. He went 9-12 from 2010-2013, 3-3 in 2014, 1-6 in 2015, and 6-5 his last three years. I don't know that any of this really enters the above article, as Ken includes more subjective stats, but it does go to prove that things are rarely as good or bad as they seem. I've included my chart below.

upload_2019-12-3_9-4-41.png
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
Augusta_Jacket said:
I've long said you can look at the record in one possession games to see how truly good a team is. Some teams overachieve and some are snakebitten. Luck plays a small role in football, but over time tends to even out. I've been tracking this every year since 2002 for GT, and our overall record since then is 130-102. Our record in one possession games is 45-44 during that span. (CCG went 16-13, CPJ went 28-31, and CGC is 3-2 so far.) When a season is grossly out of whack in the one possession W/L total, you can expect a regression to the mean. For instance, CPJ started out his career her at GT with a 1P W/L record of 10-3 in 2008-2009. That indicates that the football bounced decidedly our way for those two seasons. He went 9-12 from 2010-2013, 3-3 in 2014, 1-6 in 2015, and 6-5 his last three years. I don't know that any of this really enters the above article, as Ken includes more subjective stats, but it does go to prove that things are rarely as good or bad as they seem. I've included my chart below.

View attachment 7371
Click to expand...

My take home is a completely unrelated point. That we were disintegrated by injuries in 2015, also forced to play tons and tons of Freshmen. But going 3-9, we only lost 3 games by more than 1 possession. That season also includes scoring 24 points at Clemson, and holding Georgia to 13 total points. We were still a competitive team in 10 of our 12 games. 1 we were not was Clemson, but again we scored 24 points and lost by 19. And 1 was in the monsoon in Miami where we had 11 fumbles, losing 2 and had 2 interceptions. At one point we had a fumble on 3 consecutive plays, LOL.
 
Augusta_Jacket

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
8,121
Location
Augusta, Georgia
bwelbo said:
My take home is a completely unrelated point. That we were disintegrated by injuries in 2015, also forced to play tons and tons of Freshmen. But going 3-9, we only lost 3 games by more than 1 possession. That season also includes scoring 24 points at Clemson, and holding Georgia to 13 total points. We were still a competitive team in 10 of our 12 games. 1 we were not was Clemson, but again we scored 24 points and lost by 19. And 1 was in the monsoon in Miami where we had 11 fumbles, losing 2 and had 2 interceptions. At one point we had a fumble on 3 consecutive plays, LOL.
Click to expand...

Yeah. 2015 was a weird year. We were essentially a 5-7 team that with a few breaks could have won as many as 7, but the wheels truely fell off that year. Conversely, the 2009 squad had seemingly all the breaks go their way. Those seasons are fun to watch.
 
boger2337

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,435
So here is a question. Do we ever get to a point where we are beating 10 of the 12 teams by 10+ points. Looking dominate? Think Clemson, uga, bama, ohio state.
 
Augusta_Jacket

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
8,121
Location
Augusta, Georgia
boger2337 said:
So here is a question. Do we ever get to a point where we are beating 10 of the 12 teams by 10+ points. Looking dominate? Think Clemson, uga, bama, ohio state.
Click to expand...

Good question. IMO, I don't think we will realistically get to a point where we win 10 of our games by that margin. Miami will eventually figure out a coach, and UNC and VT will recruit on par or better than us, and there are years we will play ND, but I do think we can expect to win half our games or more by 10+ points.
 

takethepoints

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,144
Augusta_Jacket said:
I've long said you can look at the record in one possession games to see how truly good a team is. Some teams overachieve and some are snakebitten. Luck plays a small role in football, but over time tends to even out. I've been tracking this every year since 2002 for GT, and our overall record since then is 130-102. Our record in one possession games is 45-44 during that span. (CCG went 16-13, CPJ went 28-31, and CGC is 3-2 so far.) When a season is grossly out of whack in the one possession W/L total, you can expect a regression to the mean. For instance, CPJ started out his career her at GT with a 1P W/L record of 10-3 in 2008-2009. That indicates that the football bounced decidedly our way for those two seasons. He went 9-12 from 2010-2013, 3-3 in 2014, 1-6 in 2015, and 6-5 his last three years. I don't know that any of this really enters the above article, as Ken includes more subjective stats, but it does go to prove that things are rarely as good or bad as they seem. I've included my chart below.

View attachment 7371
Click to expand...
Thanks! This is why I love this board. People are willing to do a little extra work and try to provide real analysis to support their arguments. I've done this kind of thing myself and I know it takes a lot of time. For, I might add, no money. At all.
 

sidewalkGTfan

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,276
boger2337 said:
So here is a question. Do we ever get to a point where we are beating 10 of the 12 teams by 10+ points. Looking dominate? Think Clemson, uga, bama, ohio state.
Click to expand...
If most fans are honest with themselves, the answer is NO. That doesn't mean we can't have a team win 10+ games in a season, but the domination you see from those 4 schools you mentioned comes from having "stacked" rosters, not just a few game changers. I'd venture a guess that 75+% of the starters on those teams will play in the NFL. The few that won't are still considered top level college players.
 
Augusta_Jacket

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
8,121
Location
Augusta, Georgia
MGTfan said:
I don’t know how often you come on this board, but GTFLETCH is probably the biggest Collins hater on here. So that’s his why.
Click to expand...

SteamWhistle said:
He’s Paul Johnson.
Click to expand...

I ignored him a while back because he spent a lot of time cherry picking stats to make CPJ look bad, so I am pretty sure he's not Paul Johnson. I agree we need to give CGC some time, but any coach who wins 3 games is going to have a portion of the fanbase dead set against him. FWIW, i looked at GTFletch's posting history and he predicted CGC would go 7-5 this year. Probably just another fan who had unrealistic expectations and blames the coach for not realizing them.
 
boger2337

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,435
GTFLETCH said:
Not with Geoff Collins
Click to expand...
Lol okay boomer.

I personally think we can become the factory we were meant to be.

I see us having top 10 to top 5 recruiting classes.

We have a top 22 class after winning 3 games. Wait till next year when we win 5-7. Then in 2021 when we win 8-10. The only thing holding us back is lack of fundraising by alumni and people not caring or saying it cannot happen.

Replace your ignorance with money and we start being a consistent top 10 football team. We all know tech grads have it. I know I have it. And I put up. We all can.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,776
mts315 said:
My take away is that every game he listed as a potential win included a missed field goal.
Click to expand...
I know the Wells - class folks.

From perfect to......this.

When I met them at the week parade year be fore this, they were full of hope and he was perfect.

[ imo, his style was perfect for inside 40 ( hits balls straight on with lower impact ) but was asked to extend his range. AND BRAD STEWART WAS A GREAT HOLDER.]

Any way - BAD FIELD GOALS THIS cgc TRANSITION YEAR AND PERFECT IN cpj LAST YEAR. In 15 we were injured and went 1-5 in Augusta s Chart - Harrison Butkicker (sic) was the field goal kicker? Did he do well or badly? Just pursuing a thread and really dont it doesn't matter.

Kickers are supposed to Win Big Games. The team has to get them there. Block, tackle, call plays, make plays and let the field goal kicker rest.
 
Top