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Interesting article from AJC

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Football' started by Augusta_Jacket, Dec 3, 2019 at 8:39 AM.

  1. Augusta_Jacket

    Augusta_Jacket Helluva Engineer

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  2. Vespidae

    Vespidae Helluva Engineer

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    The article reminds me that more games are lost than those that are won.

    Games are lost due to penalties (Citadel), missed assignments, and poor coaching decisions.

    You’re beat when you are completely outmatched physically.

    I think this year we lost two because we beat ourselves. As we recruit and gain strength, we should improve.
     
    slugboy and augustabuzz like this.
  3. Augusta_Jacket

    Augusta_Jacket Helluva Engineer

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    I've long said you can look at the record in one possession games to see how truly good a team is. Some teams overachieve and some are snakebitten. Luck plays a small role in football, but over time tends to even out. I've been tracking this every year since 2002 for GT, and our overall record since then is 130-102. Our record in one possession games is 45-44 during that span. (CCG went 16-13, CPJ went 28-31, and CGC is 3-2 so far.) When a season is grossly out of whack in the one possession W/L total, you can expect a regression to the mean. For instance, CPJ started out his career her at GT with a 1P W/L record of 10-3 in 2008-2009. That indicates that the football bounced decidedly our way for those two seasons. He went 9-12 from 2010-2013, 3-3 in 2014, 1-6 in 2015, and 6-5 his last three years. I don't know that any of this really enters the above article, as Ken includes more subjective stats, but it does go to prove that things are rarely as good or bad as they seem. I've included my chart below.

    upload_2019-12-3_9-4-41.png
     
  4. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    My take home is a completely unrelated point. That we were disintegrated by injuries in 2015, also forced to play tons and tons of Freshmen. But going 3-9, we only lost 3 games by more than 1 possession. That season also includes scoring 24 points at Clemson, and holding Georgia to 13 total points. We were still a competitive team in 10 of our 12 games. 1 we were not was Clemson, but again we scored 24 points and lost by 19. And 1 was in the monsoon in Miami where we had 11 fumbles, losing 2 and had 2 interceptions. At one point we had a fumble on 3 consecutive plays, LOL.
     
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  5. Augusta_Jacket

    Augusta_Jacket Helluva Engineer

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    Yeah. 2015 was a weird year. We were essentially a 5-7 team that with a few breaks could have won as many as 7, but the wheels truely fell off that year. Conversely, the 2009 squad had seemingly all the breaks go their way. Those seasons are fun to watch.
     
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  6. mts315

    mts315 Helluva Engineer

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  7. boger2337

    boger2337 Helluva Engineer

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    So here is a question. Do we ever get to a point where we are beating 10 of the 12 teams by 10+ points. Looking dominate? Think Clemson, uga, bama, ohio state.
     
  8. Augusta_Jacket

    Augusta_Jacket Helluva Engineer

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    Good question. IMO, I don't think we will realistically get to a point where we win 10 of our games by that margin. Miami will eventually figure out a coach, and UNC and VT will recruit on par or better than us, and there are years we will play ND, but I do think we can expect to win half our games or more by 10+ points.
     
  9. takethepoints

    takethepoints Helluva Engineer

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    Thanks! This is why I love this board. People are willing to do a little extra work and try to provide real analysis to support their arguments. I've done this kind of thing myself and I know it takes a lot of time. For, I might add, no money. At all.
     
    CuseJacket likes this.
  10. GTFLETCH

    GTFLETCH Helluva Engineer

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    Not with Geoff Collins
     
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  11. bikeseat

    bikeseat GT Athlete

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    Why?
     
  12. sidewalkGTfan

    sidewalkGTfan Helluva Engineer

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    If most fans are honest with themselves, the answer is NO. That doesn't mean we can't have a team win 10+ games in a season, but the domination you see from those 4 schools you mentioned comes from having "stacked" rosters, not just a few game changers. I'd venture a guess that 75+% of the starters on those teams will play in the NFL. The few that won't are still considered top level college players.
     
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  13. MGTfan

    MGTfan Helluva Engineer

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    I don’t know how often you come on this board, but GTFLETCH is probably the biggest Collins hater on here. So that’s his why.
     
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  14. SteamWhistle

    SteamWhistle Helluva Engineer

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    He’s Paul Johnson.
     
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  15. Augusta_Jacket

    Augusta_Jacket Helluva Engineer

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    I ignored him a while back because he spent a lot of time cherry picking stats to make CPJ look bad, so I am pretty sure he's not Paul Johnson. I agree we need to give CGC some time, but any coach who wins 3 games is going to have a portion of the fanbase dead set against him. FWIW, i looked at GTFletch's posting history and he predicted CGC would go 7-5 this year. Probably just another fan who had unrealistic expectations and blames the coach for not realizing them.
     
  16. boger2337

    boger2337 Helluva Engineer

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    Lol okay boomer.

    I personally think we can become the factory we were meant to be.

    I see us having top 10 to top 5 recruiting classes.

    We have a top 22 class after winning 3 games. Wait till next year when we win 5-7. Then in 2021 when we win 8-10. The only thing holding us back is lack of fundraising by alumni and people not caring or saying it cannot happen.

    Replace your ignorance with money and we start being a consistent top 10 football team. We all know tech grads have it. I know I have it. And I put up. We all can.
     
  17. gtstinger776

    gtstinger776 Helluva Engineer

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    Anytime someone posts an AJC article, can you please indicate whether it’s worth reading in the title? I expect back handed crap. Not going to waste my time.
     
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  18. 00Burdell

    00Burdell Helluva Engineer

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    I love how the negative Nancy's on the board control all the threads.

    The negative posters suck all the energy out of every thread for their own gratification.
     
    UgaBlows likes this.
  19. jacket_fan

    jacket_fan Helluva Engineer

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    I appreciate Ken's articles. I think he tries to spin the positives.

    Although it is sad to think Tech could have gone 0-12 this year.
     
  20. iceeater1969

    iceeater1969 Helluva Engineer

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    I know the Wells - class folks.

    From perfect to......this.

    When I met them at the week parade year be fore this, they were full of hope and he was perfect.

    [ imo, his style was perfect for inside 40 ( hits balls straight on with lower impact ) but was asked to extend his range. AND BRAD STEWART WAS A GREAT HOLDER.]

    Any way - BAD FIELD GOALS THIS cgc TRANSITION YEAR AND PERFECT IN cpj LAST YEAR. In 15 we were injured and went 1-5 in Augusta s Chart - Harrison Butkicker (sic) was the field goal kicker? Did he do well or badly? Just pursuing a thread and really dont it doesn't matter.

    Kickers are supposed to Win Big Games. The team has to get them there. Block, tackle, call plays, make plays and let the field goal kicker rest.
     

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