I like this defense better. Why do I like this defense better?

[MikeJackets1967]

I like this defense because they're so much more aggressive

 

[slugboy]

Look at the number of opponents' drives just before halftime or end of game that resulted in scores last year vs this year. HUGE difference......

That might make us feel better, but that can be luck too. I'd say points per drive is a better thing to look at right now.
There are other reasons to feel optimistic. Last year, we had senior defensive ends and in the secondary. We should have been comparatively loaded, and had a great year. We're not much worse this year after replacing half of our starters and installing a new scheme.
By the numbers, we're a little worse in overall defense than we were last year.

This is my feel on it. This D has been put in worse positions and fared similarly [by the numbers]. Last year, the D was in good position time after time to just make one stop and win the game. And couldn't pull it off, gave up sustained long game killing drives... Miami, UT, UVA. This D doesn't seem to be giving up killer drives. It's different not stopping a team from their own 20; versus from your 25, because they got a TO.

Also, they seem to be getting much more* pressure on the QB which isn't easily quantified (*all relative 10x miniscule is still small). But I do think the increase in turnovers is a function of scheme, not a fluke. If we had ball hawks like D. J. White, the Austins or AJ back there this year, we'd be pulling in interceptions like nobody's business. Simmons alone could have had like 3 vs UNC if he had more of a nose for the ball. Our young guys will get better.

I agree that the young guys should get better. I can't see that we've improved this season, though. From the box score, our UNC win looks as bad as far what we gave up as the loss to USF. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...Yop3sQd9vE88gLLiG3xys7yqc6TWOR9HH4c4/pubhtml#). Remember, we were letting UNC back in the game, late.

I'd like to think we're improving on defense, but I haven't found numbers to back that up. For us, on offense and defense, if you have 9 or 10 players doing the right thing at the right speed and 1 or 2 don't, something bad tends to happen. Right now, we aren't getting all 11 doing the right thing on every play. Looking at the film, it still looks like 1-2 people are out of position or slow to react or confused on most every play. Until I see numbers move in the right direction or start seeing everyone playing together and making the right moves, I'll stick with the idea that we haven't improved yet.

One reason I feel optimistic is that we're making a good number of mistakes on defense and we're still in games. I'm not sure we've played a really good overall game on defense yet, although I'd give the defensive line a "A" for the season so far. If we get all four linebackers playing fast and making the right reads, I think we can get that really good defensive game.

I do feel better than some of our linebackers are up in the tackle leaders. It's a good feeling when your FS isn't your leading tackler, but at least the LBs are up there. (ASA and KCH are having a heckuva year, btw)

                                            Tack               Def            Fumb
Rk                  Player Solo Ast Tot Loss  Sk Int Yds  Avg TD PD   FR Yds TD FF
1             Malik Rivera   26  19  45  0.5 0.0   2  84 42.0  0                 0
2           Brant Mitchell   18  22  40  3.0                 1.0                 1
3        Anree Saint-Amour   22  13  35 10.5 4.0   2  19  9.5  1              1  3
4           Charlie Thomas   20  15  35  2.0                 1.0  1           2  1
5              David Curry   18  15  33  0.5 0.5   1   0  0.0  0  0        1  1  0
6            Jalen Johnson   19  14  33  2.5                    0.0           1  0
7          Tariq Carpenter   22   8  30  1.0 0.0   2   6  3.0  0                 3
8               Ajani Kerr   20   6  26  0.0                 0.0                 2
9           Desmond Branch    8  15  23  3.0 0.5   1   2  2.0  0                 1
10    Kyle Cerge-Henderson    8  15  23  4.0                    2.0           1  0
11          Lamont Simmons   16   6  22  1.0 0.0   1   0  0.0  0                 1
12            Kaleb Oliver    9  10  19  2.0 0.0   1  25 25.0  0              2  1
13   Bruce Jordan-Swilling   13   6  19  0.0                    0.0           1  0
14           Jaytlin Askew   14   4  18  1.0                 0.0                 1
15            Tre Swilling   13   4  17  1.5 1.0   1   0  0.0  0              2  1
16        Victor Alexander   10   7  17  1.0                                1.0  1
17           Brandon Adams    8   7  15  3.5                                0.0  1
18            Antwan Owens    8   7  15  0.0                    0.0           1  0
19      Christian Campbell    9   6  15  2.0                 2.0                 1
20            Quez Jackson    9   6  15  0.0                                   0.0
21          Juanyeh Thomas    9   3  12  0.0 0.0   1  95 95.0  1                 1
22        Jaquan Henderson    8   4  12  0.0                                   0.0
23         Jordan Domineck    4   1   5  0.0                                   0.0
24     Brentavious Glanton    1   3   4  0.0                                   0.0
25            Chris Martin    2   2   4  0.0                                   0.0
26           Zamari Walton    3   1   4  0.0                 0.0                 3
27           Avery Showell    3   0   3  0.0                                   0.0
28             Jarett Cole    1   1   2  0.0                                   0.0
29             Shawn Davis    2   0   2  0.0                                   0.0
30            Quon Griffin    2   0   2  0.0                                   0.0
31          Omahri Jarrett    1   1   2  0.0                                   0.0
32             Jaylon King    2   0   2  0.0                                   0.0
33             Tre Jackson    1   0   1  0.0                    0.0           1  0
34           T.K. Chimedza    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
35           Kelton Dawson    0   1   1  0.0                                   0.0
36          Justice Dingle    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
37         Bailey Ivemeyer    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
38            Jahaziel Lee    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
39            Zach Roberts    0   1   1  0.0                                   0.0
40              Qua Searcy    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
41             Devin Smith    1   0   1  0.0                                   0.0
42         Dameon Williams    0   1   1  0.0                                   0.0

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 11/8/2018.

 

[MostDefinitely]

Very interesting question. I like this defense better too. Based on nothing but the eye test and intuition -- it feels like we have gotten more stops this year when we really need to get a stop. Not sure if that's really true or if there are any stats that could get at that.

 

[33jacket]

Stats can be misleading. When u look on field and say can we get a stop. And have more hope then something is progressing. Ppd is a good metric but not purely exclusive. Starting field position can make that number hard to deal with. Offensive turnovers. Sp teams. Failed conversions. All have been worse this year than years past.

For me. I can see a team that is starting to feel
Like they can get stops when needed. And i see them put together 3-4 series in a row and look good. The problem is youth and newness make that hard to do over a full game. Thats for me the next step.

Under roof, i never got the feeling we could get stops when needed. And even with a senior team we rarely if ever put a full game together. Tfl was always an issue and is much better now. So even if the statistics are about the same. Factor all it in. You can still have a better d. Or in our case one you have growing hope in because you can see they are slowly starting to improve and the system is making sense. Vs quarters and pray

 

[33jacket]

Very interesting question. I like this defense better too. Based on nothing but the eye test and intuition -- it feels like we have gotten more stops this year when we really need to get a stop. Not sure if that's really true or if there are any stats that could get at that.

Two ints in a row vs unc is more in that one game than all of last year for critical stops

 

[Longestday]

The real question is... what would Roof's defense look like with this years players... all new secondary.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

We have given up a ton of yards due to missed tackles by taking bad angles, failing to turn players back into pursuit, or use the sideline. How many plays did multiple tacklers over-run only to watch them streak past for huge YACs? That stuff isn't scheme related, as much as experience related. It accounts for a large percent of our struggles.

Correct, and it was also a major problem the last few years as well. I don't think CTRs scheme was the issue, but rather the fact that the fundamentals never seemed to get properly fixed.

 

[jandrews]

Watching the games and breakdown videos, I feel like we are still trying to figure out way out with the system. DL has been playing great. No team has been able to run at will on us this year. I feel like the angle changes have caused some issues but we have yet to put a complete game together. Roof was here long enough that the players were developed through his system. We are showing improvement in a bunch of aspects after making some mistakes to start games. The extra bowl practices will show me how much the players are grasping and improving technique wise.

 

[slugboy]

Correct, and it was also a major problem the last few years as well. I don't think CTRs scheme was the issue, but rather the fact that the fundamentals never seemed to get properly fixed.

Could have been both scheme and fundamentals, but fundamentals oughta be fixed by the time you're a senior.
I remember Baltimore used to love our DBs because they had such good fundamentals coming out of school. I haven't heard that in a while.

 

[bke1984]

I like it better for one reason alone...when we NEED a stop or a turnover, I actually feel like we are capable of getting one. I haven't felt that way since 2014...and really a "stop" wasn't even that big of a possibility then, in my mind.

 

[bke1984]

So just curious...let's forget about the yards and points stuff for a second...I know the turnover numbers have improved, but how many punts have we forced this year compared to past seasons? Can someone find those stats and post them? It feels like night and day difference, but that could just be my imagination.

Also, what about 3-and-outs? That seems like night and day improvement, as well.

 

[RamblinCharger]

The eye test is what I go off of. Just like the TO TQM situation. The defense looks better and gives me hope that we can create a turnover or get off the field in a crucial time, just like TO looks better and makes me think we can score every time we have the ball.

 

[Lavoisier]

I like the defensive philosophy better because it puts guys in position to make plays. The issue is that certain position groups are not making those plays because the coaching isn't great. We need better guys coaching ILB and CBs plain and simple. The #s would look so much better if half of those "if only he had done xyz" moments in the games were fixed.

 

[awbuzz]

Turnovers have some luck involved.

My concern is the number if punts or lack thereof forced by the D. It's great that we have 20 D turnovers, but those can't be counted upon.

Regarding 3rd downs converted to 1st downs, or scores, are my concern. Along with a team not even needing a 3rd down conversion because they only needed 1 or 2 plays to get a first down.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

At the start of the UNC game I felt like the light bulb had finally come on for our LBs and played off our front well finally. Brant had a good game as it progressed...Curry seemed a little lost at times though.

If the DBs had played balls in the air adequately we would have shut down the tarholes. We have yet to put a sound game together as a unit this year on D. The Dline has but the 7 behind them no. Hoping it happens to close out the year.

 

[Yoda]

TD Roof would have been a good one in this defense

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I like it better for one reason alone...when we NEED a stop or a turnover, I actually feel like we are capable of getting one. I haven't felt that way since 2014...and really a "stop" wasn't even that big of a possibility then, in my mind.

The thing is, though, that's an emotional feeling not backed up by statistics. We were better at getting stops last year, we just didn't get the ones we desperately needed. We actually are doing considerably worse on 3rd down D this year, but we've all drunk the Kool-Aid on CNW so we have optimism for the moment. (And I'm on my second pitcher of CNW flavored Kool-Aid, so I get where you're coming from.) We're still giving opposing WR's big cushions on 3rd down and all those things we railed at Roof for doing, and we're less successful at defending them than last year. Some of that is attributable to the newness of our DBs, and some is a function of the newness of our D as a whole.

I am very optimistic that our 3rd down D will actually improve next year, however.

 

[ibeattetris]

Stats can be misleading. When u look on field and say can we get a stop. And have more hope then something is progressing. Ppd is a good metric but not purely exclusive. Starting field position can make that number hard to deal with. Offensive turnovers. Sp teams. Failed conversions. All have been worse this year than years past.

This is interestingly why I have become in favor of looking at S&P+ for measuring defense. The stat "IsoPPP" is a point per play metric that adjusts itself based on yard line:

IsoPPP: An explosiveness measure derived from determining the equivalent point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game. IsoPPP looks at only the per-play value of a team's successful plays (as defined by the Success Rate definition above); its goal is to separate the explosiveness component from the efficiency component altogether.

In overall points per play we are ranked 105th, but in the IsoPPP we are ranked 19th. The problem with our defense right now though is it is the opposite of our offense and is not very efficient.

 

[UgaBlows]

TD Roof would have been a good one in this defense

.

 

[Longestday]

I think that the O scoring > than the average defense score helps the defensive optics. If the O was scoring 27 points per game... we would all be crying.

I also think the defensive turnovers helps the offense score allowing the offensive score to help the defensive optics. That was fun to write... was it fun to read?

The fact is the defense needs to continue to improve. I see improvement, I just don’t see improvement in the PPD stat yet.