How long?

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
11,171
Deion bringing in a teamful of highly rated prospects and filling the stadium with fans is just a fantasy wet-dream brought to you by the same people who are susceptible to joining cults and/or giving their money to ripoff artists.
You may be right. I’m just suggesting that if he can’t do it then the real pipe dream is the idea that a new coach can use the portal to be bowl eligible in two years.

Anyone suggesting that this isn’t going to be a long slow rebuild from the damage wrought by CGC is probably already in a cult 😊
 

ibeattetris

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,606
Next year I see us as having ole miss, bowling green, and uga as ooc. Not sure who the 4th will be. We then get wake, Louisville, and Clemson as our permanent. I would hope we can find a way to get three wins between Bowling Green, <unknown ooc> and Louisville/Wake.

After that it’s going to be up to whatever the scheduling gods give us from the remaining ACC schedule. But we’ll need to find a way to go 3-2 at that point unless we find a way to go 2-1 against our pod.

2025 looks to be our easiest upcoming OOC slate (Colorado, Temple). If we aren’t bowling in 2025 with any coach, we are hurting bad.
 

alagold

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,792
Location
Huntsville,Al
3 games will almost assuredly be losses: Clemson, UGA, Ole Miss

2 games will be tough to win based on talent deficiencies alone : @Miami and UNC

2 games should be auto wins: Bowling Green and whatever FCS team we get on the schedule

Assuming all goes as planned, that’s 2-5 meaning the new guy will have to go 4-1 against our most evenly matched competition to get to a bowl. Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse, @UVA, and @Wake Forest.
I’d imagine Wake will take a pretty significant step back with Hartman gone, and winning at Virginia has always been tough for GT. The other 3; who knows

6-6 is 1000% in reach, but won’t necessarily be easy. For optics reasons I want to win at least 4 games in 2023. Depending on how we look in both the wins and the losses will give me my outlook on the new coach and the direction of the program for 2024. The schedule is much tougher in 24 than it is next year. We play Notre Dame, Florida State, and NC State in 24, and a pretty big measuring stick game against Georgia State. So we better get it figured out in 2024 or we’ll be done as a program. If we don’t go to a bowl in 2024 that’ll be 6 straight losing seasons, 7 out of the last 8, and 8 out of the last 10. That’s close to irrecoverable in this age of conference realignment. We’d fall so far behind financially there would be no way out.
You looking at this situation too realistically.You need to get in a gold cloud and bumble along like most have been for last 3 yrs.. lol
Way too close to the truth. I could see us in a lower division in 5 yrs. Of course any but the top 40 teams might be there in 5 yrs. too.
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,926
I honestly think we will generally have the base talent level and combined with the weak ACC, a good coach should win a minimum of 6 his first year and go bowling.
Not an unreasonable take if we can keep most of our talent intact. Duke has done it this year with a new coach. I know, they lost to us, but they are currently 7-3 with all their losses by a combined 14 points. You can argue that their schedule is/was easier and you'd be correct, but that's a whole different discussion about scheduling.
 

Deleted member 6494

Guest
Our OL is still going to be BAD next year, and no portal magic is going to save us there. We need to be realistic about our talent and temper expectations so the new HC can get his players, scheme and culture implemented. Any coach that comes in here running college standard rpo offense is going to struggle with the talent we have coming back. We have one WR that can consistently get open, we have nothing at TE, it’s not good and there’s no quick fix for all of our problems.
With all of our troubles this year and the previous three, I would expect a good hire to be 6-6 or 7-5. If 7-5, then a chance at 8-5 in an evenly matched bowl game.
 

RamblinRed

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
5,901
I would hope for a bowl game by year 2 and expect it by year 3.

I believe the portal is being way overrated in terms of what it can provide. It is good for adding talent at the margins, but it isn't going to provide a huge lift in talent unless you have the money to buy that talent (even then, look at how that talent has turned out so far at Miami - one of the schools with the 'best' portal recruiting last season).

Also, looking at this team I think it has made some talent improvement in some areas, but in others I think it has gotten worse. Right now I think the talent level on the OL, RB and WR are all ACC avg to below avg. On the defensive side it feels like the talent level is higher in the secondary, but i'm pretty concerned about our LB core for next season and the DL talent looks mediocre.

More importantly, it feels like there is a pretty big drop off at most positions between starters and backups - that will only get better through sustained recruiting.

I'm looking forward to whoever is hired - i'm assuming that is likely to come at the end of November/early December.


Bill Connelly has always said if you don't see a significant improvement in the program's SP+ numbers by year three it is unlikely to happen with that coaching staff.
 

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
8,125
Location
Augusta, Georgia
I believe the portal is being way overrated in terms of what it can provide. It is good for adding talent at the margins, but it isn't going to provide a huge lift in talent unless you have the money to buy that talent (even then, look at how that talent has turned out so far at Miami - one of the schools with the 'best' portal recruiting last season).

This. The only caveat being if the portal provides the tipping point for you, i.e. a legit QB when you have the rest of the pieces in place. Otherwise, I think the portal is a great way for the factories to poach developed talent and for the non-factories to gamble on getting a diamond in the rough.
 

billga99

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
852
With all of our troubles this year and the previous three, I would expect a good hire to be 6-6 or 7-5. If 7-5, then a chance at 8-5 in an evenly matched bowl game.
I think a 7-5 record will be really tough. @Clemson, @Ole Miss and UGA at home all look like virtually unwinnable games. That would mean we would have to go 7-2 in the remainder of our schedule. I think we will have a tough recruiting year (with the unknown of the next coach), lots of transfers (such as Sims) and losing some key seniors particularly on defense.
 

Deleted member 6494

Guest
I think a 7-5 record will be really tough. @Clemson, @Ole Miss and UGA at home all look like virtually unwinnable games. That would mean we would have to go 7-2 in the remainder of our schedule. I think we will have a tough recruiting year (with the unknown of the next coach), lots of transfers (such as Sims) and losing some key seniors particularly on defense.
I dream big.
 

Deleted member 6494

Guest
This. The only caveat being if the portal provides the tipping point for you, i.e. a legit QB when you have the rest of the pieces in place. Otherwise, I think the portal is a great way for the factories to poach developed talent and for the non-factories to gamble on getting a diamond in the rough.
Someone on the forum brought up a valid point. Their opinion was too much recruiting from the portal will cut down on the interest to Tech from some athletes. The athletes go to a school to compete with the others; I am sure key players look at schools to see who has already committed and their desire to compete with them.

When they commit to a school with a chance to compete and then see the coach filling up from the portal, it leaves them with a bad impression of the coach's truth told to them in the recruiting process. The coach should use the portal when it only becomes necessary.
 

acedarney

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
16
I expect to get to 6 wins every year. This year, we've been 0.500 since Key took over. We stole one from Pitt, but should have beaten UVA, UCF, and probably Miami. Winning two of those gets us to 6 wins.

In 2023, we should beat Bowling Green and an FCS school, and then winning four of Louisville, UNC, Miami, UVA, BC, Syracuse, and Wake is doable (4-3 against average ACC teams should be achievable with a competent team, especially because at least two will probably be dumpster fires again).
 

Deleted member 6494

Guest
LIST 1
Bill Curry
Bobby Ross
George O'Leary
Chan Gailey
Paul Johnson

LIST 2
Bill Lewis
Geoff Collins

Every coach on List 1 was able to win enough games to qualify GT for a bowl game by Year 3. List 2...well, we all know how those coaches ended up. It's not hard to make a bowl game...and the ACC isn't full of heavyweights. This roster is not bereft of talent. I think had Key been our coach since Spring Practice we probably have enough wins to go bowling by now.

If GT makes the right hire, we can probably make a bowl game by Year 2. By year 3 I definitely expect 6 wins. I expect Sims to portal out, but if Pyron stays, the next coach has a REALLY nice piece in the rebuilding process. Pyron is gamer...and he would fit in an offense like Jamey Chadwell's or a Bill O'Brien type offense. The bigger question is who else would follow Sims in the portal. I think the right hire would motivate players to stay at GT.

We're probably 2-3 weeks from finding out who our new coach is...so stay tuned...
A good time to rate all GT coaches for winning percentages.

John Heisman 102-29-7 77.9%
Bobby Dodd 165-65-8 71.8%
George O'Leary 54-30 64.3%
William Alexander 135-94-15 59.0%
Chan Gailey 37-26 58.7%
Paul Johnson 73-60 54.9%
Bill Fulcher 12-10-1 54.5%
Bobby Ross 31-26-1 54.4%
Pepper Rodgers 34-31-2 52.3%
Bud Carson 27-27 50%
Bill Curry 31-33-3 48.4%
Bill Lewis 11-19 36.7%
Geoff Collins 10-28 26.3%
 

stinger 1957

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,528
In order for me to address the question I first need to know how much NIL money we have for the next 2 years. Anyone know?
 

SOWEGA Jacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,113
I always ask when recruiting comes up - does anybody ever look at our roster online and ever ask why we recruit dozens of WR’s and DB’s? I started watching it when Johnson was here and we’d have like 20 ABacks on the roster (who never played). Under Collins we have so many WR’s and DB’s and it never made sense. Everyone knows our issues are along the lines and have been yet our coaches have never adjusted in recruiting. If our problems are OLine and DLine why isn’t every preferred walk-on an OLinemen or DLineman? Instead of having 14 WR’s standing on the sidelines never playing why not sign additional linemen every year? its just so frustrating that we know what the problem is yet year after year we never address it. It’s all a numbers game. I understand that all these WR’s, RB’s, and DB’s put up video game numbers in high school and it’s fun to watch their highlight videos and dream. But the reality is they are all basically the same (6’3”, can run, and jump). I remember thinking Charles Perkins would be an all time GT great based on his high school film. He didn’t see the field all that much over his career.

My point is it’s time to sign as many DLineman and OLinemen as we can and every preferred walk on should be a linemen until we find 5 starters and 5 backups. But we probably won’t and we’ll keep bringing in WR’s, RB’s, and DB’s who look good standing in the sidelines every Saturday and in 4 years our lines will still stink and no high end QB will want to sign. Just crazy we can’t find 8-10 on each side of the ball.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
7,750
I always ask when recruiting comes up - does anybody ever look at our roster online and ever ask why we recruit dozens of WR’s and DB’s?
I've been wondering that myself. I guess it was a lot easier for them to sign 4-star receivers and D-backs, so they opted for those instead of 3-star linemen. Great to have all those "skill" guys, but meanwhile we're getting mauled up front.
 

Heisman's Ghost

Helluva Engineer
Messages
4,944
Location
Albany Georgia
If your coach isn’t successful by year #2, they’ll probably never be successful. The Frank Beamer stories are the exceptions, like pulling an inside straight; most of the time they don’t pan out.

By year 1, you should see improvement. Bad luck could keep you out of a bowl game, but it’s a good sign to see one in year one.

By year 2, something exceptional should have happened to keep us out of a bowl game. Even then, I’d be concerned. For example, we should have qualified for a bowl game during COVID—maybe we didn’t go, but not qualifying even that year was a major coaching failure.

By year 3, if we’re not in a bowl game, a good coach is looking to another place where they can win because they aren’t the problem, and a bad coach is saying “don’t worry, we’re making progress”.

If you can’t see immediate results with our next coach (or with Key), that’s a problem. We should at least be bowling by year #2, and not by the skin of our teeth, either.

You may be right. I’m just suggesting that if he can’t do it then the real pipe dream is the idea that a new coach can use the portal to be bowl eligible in two years.

Anyone suggesting that this isn’t going to be a long slow rebuild from the damage wrought by CGC is probably already in a cult 😊
I believe it will be difficult even with the "soft" ACC. There will have to be a total makeover of this program from the roster to the coaches and everything in between. Not a job for the faint at heart but there will be those out there who will relish the challenge as a chance to turn the football world upside down. Challenges abound in every coaching change poor Bud Carson had the enviable task of replacing a living legend who had retired to being athletic director. To make matters worse, Dodd left Carson with precious little talent. Even O'Leary had a mess to clean up after the Bill Lewis debacle. It is usually not an easy transition especially at Tech. The best coaching situation that I can recall was at Florida when Urban replaced Ron Zook. Zook's teams had talent and actually beat UGA two out of the three years he was there, he just had a lot of trouble with any team from the state of Mississippi and a comical way of messing up public relations. Urban stepped in and won immediately with Zook's recruits who just needed discipline and proper coaching.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,113
I've been wondering that myself. I guess it was a lot easier for them to sign 4-star receivers and D-backs, so they opted for those instead of 3-star linemen. Great to have all those "skill" guys, but meanwhile we're getting mauled up front.
Yep. And all those skill guys are just standing on the sidelines and never seeing the field. Look at all the current WR’s we have on the roster yet only about 5 actually play. Same with the DB’s. If we have 85 schollys and we know our problem is the OLine and DLine we should have 22 OLinemen on the roster 22 DLinemen on the roster at all times. That’s 44 of 85. Add in 3 QB’s, 5 RB’s, 3 TE’s, 6 LB’s, 1 Kicker, 1 Punter to get to 63 out of 85. That leaves 22 schollys for WR’s and DB’s which is more than enough. Then make every preferred walk on be a Linemen of some sort. You can’t tell me if we have 22 OLinemen and 5 preferred walk ons from Georgia high schools that 5-8 wouldn’t emerge as solid. Same on the defensive line. Nobody cares what the star rankings say after their freshmen season.

We have proven that the lines are the engine. When Johnson’s offense was humming it was because of the OLine and guys like Shaq Mason, etc. Same in 1990 and during Lil Joe‘s years. Without the line we saw Shawn Jones regress and Justin Thomas regress during their final seasons. It’s just maddening when every town in this state has big ole boys who can block but unless their parents send them to camps they either don't get recruited or end up in lower divisions. I tell you right now that Valdosta State has a better OLine than we do. How does that happen?
 
Top