How Important is Recruiting?

[yeti92]

Since this thread is about recruiting impact and your posts minimized it as a difference-maker in UGA’s recent improvement, I feel it’s worthwhile to look deeper since we have actual data to support the discussion.

Previous posters have given us the Rivals average recruiting rankings for Richt. I computed this for Smart as well and compared his 7-year tenure with Richt’s most recent 7-years (which is most relevant since that includes the period when I saw the complaints over his recruiting).

Richt Ave Rank: 9 (source is wrmathis post above)

Smart Ave Rank: 3.3

Since your comments also minimized the difference in the count of highly ranked players between a five and ten ranking, I compared that as well, again using Rivals.

	Smart	Smart	Richt	Richt
	5*	4*	5*	4*
2022	5	16
2021	2	13
2020	5	14
2019	3	15
2018	8	15
2017	2	14
2016	3	10
2015			2	11
2014			1	12
2013			0	16
2012			2	6
2011			2	12
2010			0	9
2009			1	14
Ave	4.0	13.9	1.1	11.4

Overall, Smart has averaged nearly 3 additional 5-stars per year and 2.5 additional 4-stars. In the context of Richt’s baseline of 1.1 5-stars per year, that is a very significant improvement in elite players on the team.

Again, not arguing who is the best game-day coach. As others have said, UGA’s improvement has as much to do with the overall commitment level of the school as anything else. But my point here is that Smart's recruiting improvement is a significant component and the raw data supports that. My other original point was that recruiting at positions of most need, such as OL/DL, is an equally important aspect of recruiting.

For 2022 they have more 4 stars, not even counting their 5 star commitments, than we have total commitments, and we don't have a single 4 star. I understand why, but it's still a bit shocking.

 

[roadkill]

For 2022 they have more 4 stars, not even counting their 5 star commitments, than we have total commitments, and we don't have a single 4 star. I understand why, but it's still a bit shocking.

Also shocking is that they've recruited 23 5-stars in recent years if you include the 2018 class.

 

[cpf2001]

Recruiting is one of those things where the difference between 1 and 5 is actually a lot bigger than the difference between 15 and 20 or 40 and 45.

A lot of distributions are like that - the differences at the edges are bigger than in the middle. It's normal.

By class rank and "points" per Rivals for 2023:
Top is 3035 for Alabama
5th is 2621 for UGA (-414 points)
15th is 1957 for Arkansas (-664 points for double the jump)
20th is 1695 for TCU (-262 this time for five spots)
40th is 1258 for Michigan State (-437 points, now covering 20 spots)
45th is 1230 for Virginia Tech (-28 points)

Or, by average stars right now per Rivals for 2023:
Top is 4.05 for OSU
5th is 3.81 for Texas (-0.24)
15 is 3.58 for MichSt (-0.23... for twice the drop in the list rankings!)
20th is 3.45 for Oregon (-0.13 - the gap between five spots becomes about half the size as between 1 and 5).
40th is 3.12 for Texas Tech (-0.33 but for 20 spots)
45th is 3.06 for BC (-0.06)

Apologies if some of those second ones are slightly off, Rivals doesn't re-rank when you sort by average stars so I was counting the old fashioned way.

If you don't buy into recruiting rankings at all: you see the same in the NFL draft. Last year UGA had 15 and the second most had 10. You have to go outside the top 10 to find another 5-player dropoff to equal the one between #1 and #2. Active players on roster? A drop of 7 between Alabama and LSU at the top; a drop of 2 between Clemson and Florida at 10 and 11. And then a long slow decline.

 

[SilverFox81]

I think most of this entire comment is just a bunch of hooplah.

Kirby is a good coach, his teams play with discipline and rarely make boneheaded mistakes. But the reason UGA went from being a pretender to a powerhouse has almost nothing to do with his coaching abilities, and everything to do with UGA’s spending on football skyrocketing. If Richt had been given the resources Kirby has, he would’ve played for and won Nattys too.

UGA was tired of not getting the job done, so they pulled all the stops and committed fully to becoming the best college football program in the country. Seems like it’s working out well for them. At this point, as long as college football exists in its current state, UGA will continue to be the best program in the country. There are only 2 schools in the country who I think maybe, maybe, can get to their level. That’s USC and Texas, and neither one of them are close to that right now. But there’s enough money and talent in both of those places that if they ever get it figured out again, they could be dangerous.

Ironically as UGA’s football spending was skyrocketing, Tech’s was shrinking. That’s how we ended up where we are today. With UGA at the top of the pyramid, and Tech buried in the tomb beneath it.

Right now, is the key word. UGA is the best program in the country RIGHT NOW, but for the past 15 years it's been ALABAMA. Don't even say UGA is the best powerhouse when it's still Alabama. Yes, they aren't where they usually are this year but they won't be this down again for a while. Saban will be there for another 5 and they have the most resources to keep them on top. Yes, Kirby is enjoying a nice run but it won't last forever, just like Clemson's. And where do you think Kirby got all those smarts from?

 

[JacketOff]

Right now, is the key word. UGA is the best program in the country RIGHT NOW, but for the past 15 years it's been ALABAMA. Don't even say UGA is the best powerhouse when it's still Alabama. Yes, they aren't where they usually are this year but they won't be this down again for a while. Saban will be there for another 5 and they have the most resources to keep them on top. Yes, Kirby is enjoying a nice run but it won't last forever, just like Clemson's. And where do you think Kirby got all those smarts from?

Like or not man, Georgia is Alabama of the 2010s. They are by far the best program in the country, top to bottom. They have the best athletes on the field in every single game. Saban is 71 years old. His Alabama team this year is the most undisciplined one he’s ever had. The best QB in Alabama history is gone after this year. I’d take a wager that Bama has an even worse year next year. They are 2 plays away from being 6-4 right now. If Ewers didn’t get hurt in the Texas game they would’ve lost that one big. Ohio State is the only team in the country that can even put up a fight against UGA right now. They’ll best LSU in the SECCG by at least 3 scores.

Clemson never had a chance to do what UGA is doing right now, and what they’re going to continue to do in the future. UGA is bringing in almost $100M more per year than Clemson is, between SEC Network revenue, ticket sales, donations, and merch sales. Clemson’s run of being a natty contender yearly is over.

 

[takethepoints]

I've always liked average stars better as a way to compare recruiting classes. The overall rankings are a product of the number of stars and the number of recruits. One reason Bama and Ugag ranked so high overall is that they usually get very full classes because they chase athletes off. One reason why Wake's are so low is that Clawson stockpiles players and develops them. (Btw, I know everybody chases athletes off; it's a matter of degree.) Paul's classes often had average star ratings higher then many teams "ahead" of them in overall rankings, mainly because he was like Clawson and liked a junior/senior team.

But, yes, Ugag is recruiting very well today; they've gone all in on it, something that Richt, to his credit, never did. But, as was just mentioned above, no recruiting advantage lasts forever. Further, you don't have to recruit with Bama to beat them. The problem there isn't, I think their recruiting advantages, but their coaching. Saban is a right good country football coach and a good recruiter to boot. Makes him hard to whip, but watch what happens when he retires in a year or two. Same with Kirby. These things run in cycles. I can remember in my college days when it looked like nobody would ever beat USCw. Then McKay left and they've never gotten their mojo back.

 

[JacketFan137]

recruiting at a higher level just gives you a shotgun approach with your high ranking guys. something has to hit. plenty of kirby’s guys will transfer out and never amount to anything but when you bring in a class built of a million 4* recruits your odds of getting a bunch of studs is way up.

just think about how some of our biggest difference makers over the years have been 4* rated. gibbs, jt, nesbitt, dt, derrick morgan, etc. if we multiplied our yearly haul and started bringing in 5 or 6 a year and we could have multiple JT’s across the roster in different spots it would make a massive difference.

we won’t ever touch what uga is doing today but we have to bridge that gap to some extent if we want to play a competitive game with them in the next 5 years

 

[SilverFox81]

Like or not man, Georgia is Alabama of the 2010s. They are by far the best program in the country, top to bottom. They have the best athletes on the field in every single game. Saban is 71 years old. His Alabama team this year is the most undisciplined one he’s ever had. The best QB in Alabama history is gone after this year. I’d take a wager that Bama has an even worse year next year. They are 2 plays away from being 6-4 right now. If Ewers didn’t get hurt in the Texas game they would’ve lost that one big. Ohio State is the only team in the country that can even put up a fight against UGA right now. They’ll best LSU in the SECCG by at least 3 scores.

Clemson never had a chance to do what UGA is doing right now, and what they’re going to continue to do in the future. UGA is bringing in almost $100M more per year than Clemson is, between SEC Network revenue, ticket sales, donations, and merch sales. Clemson’s run of being a natty contender yearly is over.

I'm not disputing the revenue Ugag is bringing in or the job Kirby has done, but I think you're overestimating their run. For one, they didn't win a Natty for almost 41 years until last season. Second, 2010's? I think you mean 2020's, sir. Bama was the king of the 2010's. And Dabo might have one foot out the door, Clemson and will be fine. You most not know the revenue Clemson has. Never underestimate their resources and boosters, so I don't know how you can say Clemson can't and won't ever do what Ugag is doing?? They have already done it-twice! Dogs are on top RIGHT NOW but it won't last forever. UT is coming back and the Gators won't suck forever. Kirby is enjoying a nice run because the EAST sucks and he has no one to compete with. Y'all need to stop drooling over the cesspool.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Second, 2010's? I think you mean 2020's, sir. Bama was the king of the 2010's.

That's exactly what he said.

"Georgia is Alabama of the 2010s."

 

[UgaBlows]

uga is out-athleting Bama (and everyone else) these days and it’s not even close. I believe they have something like fifteen 5-star players starting right now. I’ve heard Kirby say in an interview that recruiting is everything

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Recruiting is everything for ugag, Bama, Michigan, OSU, etc., who have the coaching, facilities, funds, and organizational structure to succeed at the highest level. What also helps is being completely unscrupulous and willing to pay players whatever they want to get them to go to your school. Kirby learned from the master when he worked under Saban, who employed several bag men on his staff. We will never be fighting for the #1 recruiting class. We will also never pay players like Bama, ugag and Auburn does. So, while recruiting is very important, we have to find a different path than what works for ugag.

 

[roadkill]

There's a concept called Blue-Chip Ratio that pertains to the % of a team's players that are 4* or 5*. 247 has been doing analyses of this for championship-level teams over several years. Here's the most recent article: https://247sports.com/LongFormArtic...national-championship--190039196/#190039196_1
While this focuses on a team's ability to win the National Championship, it should translate to lesser accomplishments to a degree for teams that don't recruit to the level of a UGA or Bama.

 

[Ibeeballin]

You "believe" Scout changed Calvin's rating? Are you saying that 247 is also retroactively changing its ratings when a guy kills or fails in the NFL? Are you saying that they DIDN'T look at multiple sources from 2004 to get Calvin's rating? Any other conspiracy theories I should know of?

But you believe Rivals, which ALSO has the intent of selling ads and memberships? Got it.

They did

 

[takethepoints]

Recruiting is everything for ugag, Bama, Michigan, OSU, etc., who have the coaching, facilities, funds, and organizational structure to succeed at the highest level. What also helps is being completely unscrupulous and willing to pay players whatever they want to get them to go to your school. Kirby learned from the master when he worked under Saban, who employed several bag men on his staff. We will never be fighting for the #1 recruiting class. We will also never pay players like Bama, ugag and Auburn does. So, while recruiting is very important, we have to find a different path than what works for ugag.

And, I might add, even a great athletic advantage doesn't translate into constant wins. Coaching does make a difference. When John McKay left USCw, they had the same athletes and had some further success under John Robinson, but it was never the same level as under McKay. After Robinson it's been up and down ever since. And this is not a place that has scruples about athletic recruiting, as recent legal matters have shown.

 

[roadkill]

They did

I haven't seen actual evidence that Scout changed Calvin's ratings but it's certainly plausible. The services routinely "bump" a player's rating upon a commitment (or perhaps even just an offer) from a "power" school, even though they have not re-evaluated the player. However, the usual explanation that they are doing it for subscriptions would not apply to the Calvin scenario. It's just that the rating services have a vested interest in building and protecting their own credibility.

 

[UgaBlows]

And, I might add, even a great athletic advantage doesn't translate into constant wins. Coaching does make a difference. When John McKay left USCw, they had the same athletes and had some further success under John Robinson, but it was never the same level as under McKay. After Robinson it's been up and down ever since. And this is not a place that has scruples about athletic recruiting, as recent legal matters have shown.

i’m not sure that the history of cfb recruiting vs. success really correlates to the level that uga has cranked up their talent levels to. Kirby is a good coach no doubt but he’s no genius out-scheming other teams. They are blowing away everyone else in the country on pure overwhelming talent right now

 

[JacketOff]

I'm not disputing the revenue Ugag is bringing in or the job Kirby has done, but I think you're overestimating their run. For one, they didn't win a Natty for almost 41 years until last season. Second, 2010's? I think you mean 2020's, sir. Bama was the king of the 2010's. And Dabo might have one foot out the door, Clemson and will be fine. You most not know the revenue Clemson has. Never underestimate their resources and boosters, so I don't know how you can say Clemson can't and won't ever do what Ugag is doing?? They have already done it-twice! Dogs are on top RIGHT NOW but it won't last forever. UT is coming back and the Gators won't suck forever. Kirby is enjoying a nice run because the EAST sucks and he has no one to compete with. Y'all need to stop drooling over the cesspool.

I think if you just accepted the fact that for the next 5-10 years or so Georgia will be the best program in the country, it’ll make it a lot easier on you. They had 15 players taken in the NFL draft last year, including 5 of their defensive starters on the most dominant defense in college football last year. How is their defense this year? Well it’s just the best in the country again. Nothing is going to slow them down. They have too much money and too much support to allow it to happen. Who is going to step up and compete with them? Ohio State is literally the only team with a chance, and they couldn’t beat Michigan who got blasted by UGA on a neutral field last year.

 

[JacketFan137]

i’m not sure that the history of cfb recruiting vs. success really correlates to the level that uga has cranked up their talent levels to. Kirby is a good coach no doubt but he’s no genius out-scheming other teams. They are blowing away everyone else in the country on pure overwhelming talent right now

i don’t think this is fair to say. uga’s offense has taken a pretty sizable step forward under monken and their offense is completely different than it was 5 years ago with chaney.

i also think their defenses over the years have been extremely good and obviously they have some sort of quality coaching as dan lanning went to oregon and they are playing well.

the reason uga is now looking so much better than everyone is because they are extremely well coached combined with the ridiculous recruiting

 

[WreckinGT]

I think if you just accepted the fact that for the next 5-10 years or so Georgia will be the best program in the country, it’ll make it a lot easier on you. They had 15 players taken in the NFL draft last year, including 5 of their defensive starters on the most dominant defense in college football last year. How is their defense this year? Well it’s just the best in the country again. Nothing is going to slow them down. They have too much money and too much support to allow it to happen. Who is going to step up and compete with them? Ohio State is literally the only team with a chance, and they couldn’t beat Michigan who got blasted by UGA on a neutral field last year.

I would agree with you, except for the new existence of NIL. I think it's very possible that UGA finally found domination with the old model and now the model has changed abruptly. With programs like Texas A&M, Miami, and USC now buying 5 star players the recruiting landscape is going to change. UGA will still recruit well, but competition for the very best talent is greater than before.

 

[takethepoints]

I think if you just accepted the fact that for the next 5-10 years or so Georgia will be the best program in the country, it’ll make it a lot easier on you. They had 15 players taken in the NFL draft last year, including 5 of their defensive starters on the most dominant defense in college football last year. How is their defense this year? Well it’s just the best in the country again. Nothing is going to slow them down. They have too much money and too much support to allow it to happen. Who is going to step up and compete with them? Ohio State is literally the only team with a chance, and they couldn’t beat Michigan who got blasted by UGA on a neutral field last year.

And you have accepted that there is no uncertainty in college football. But a moments consideration will show that isn't true. What if, say, Oklahoma State or, more likely, Texas A&M came to Kirby and offered him the farm to switch. I think the chances are 40-60 that he'd stay at Ugag under those circumstances. And when he leaves - if he does - his staff goes with him and some of the athletes too. And the recruiting networks take a beating. And Georgia returns to Earth. There are other ways this could happen too.

Now, do I think this will happen? No. But I didn't think Jimbo Fisher would leave FSU either. Short me = there is no certainty in college football or in too much anything else.