Here's a thought

[jgtengineer]

I am not betting on this team. For or against. Irrespective of the line.

If you are, you have bigger balls than I. Or a lot more money.

I put a 100 dollar bet on a NC at -30000 right now If something dumb happens. I always do. Just in case.

 

[JacketOff]

I put a 100 dollar bet on a NC at -30000 right now If something dumb happens. I always do. Just in case.

I respect the play, but I think +3300 to win the Coastal is a much better play with an actual chance to hit. I threw some cash on the over 3.5 wins for +110 odds

 

[Techfan02]

I respect the play, but I think +3300 to win the Coastal is a much better play with an actual chance to hit. I threw some cash on the over 3.5 wins for +110 odds

Wouldn't disagree

 

[Techfan02]

I put a 100 dollar bet on a NC at -30000 right now If something dumb happens. I always do. Just in case.

I bet on purdue as the natty sleeper

 

[jgtengineer]

Yeha i totally meant to type + not a minus on mine, but i got a 100 on costal too.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

As far as Collin's quirks being a point of complaints, I think that's kind of hard to tell. I don't think anyone was demanding he be fired before he coached a game. There were certainly some early comments about it being weird or people not getting it before he coached a game for us, but they seemed to be mostly "hmm that's weird, but okay if that's what the kids are into and it will help us win/recruit, go for it". I remember the way he stands in recruiting pictures was a point of focus, people wondering if he had some sort of foot issue. There wasn't really a lot of people saying we are going to suck because he wears skinny jeans with no socks, or because he wants to blast music at practice, or in the stadium instead of hear the band.

Unfortunately for him, he very very quickly made a series of serious errors:

- Losing game 3 at home to the Citadel, a very mediocre FCS school running GT's highly controversial former offense

-Following that up with a game 4 drubbing at the hands of Temple, Collin's former G5 team. 0 points were scored offensively, despite having a bye week the week before giving the team extra time for preparation. Verbally fellating Temple in the post game press conference did not do him any favors either.

Those two events back to back turned up the criticisms of Collins very fast, and he has continued to make large blunders with little in the way of redeeming wins since.

Yeah, not to pile on, but when he talked about Temple being an elite team after that beat down, that was my first moment of slight doubt beginning to creep in.

I’m inoculated to all the crazy talk by now but I am still looking for concrete proof that CGC can coach.

 

[Swarm-Phinny]

In good news if tech wins out we’re in the playoffs baby. Maybe even with 1 loss against ole piss and the muts if it’s close games…… ok, now my honest opinion. I think the season will come down to the Clemson game. If we win expect a great season. Great season as in 7 wins but that’s 4 more than 3 wins sooo yeah “great season”
If we lose to Clemson then Expect the worse. I mean that schedule is brutal.

We lost a lot of close games last year. I think it was 5 games by less than 11 points or something like that. If we can get over that hump and the offense plays to the talent. But truthfully that will be determined by the o-line. The defense can not get much worse so only up from there. I do think the defense will play better especially the DB’s but the linebackers are the strong point by far. I just can’t imagine that they will be worse on defense.

Okay that brings me to this if y’all don’t remember Paul Johnson’s job was in jeopardy going into the 14 season and out of no where we beat Clemson and Georgia then go and win the orange bowl. Obviously Georgia was not who they are now but it is a rivalry and then deshawn was hurt….. That 14 team did not start playing like a 10 win team until the pit game towards the middle of the season. My point is that tech has a way of suppressing people when it looks like we’re dead. Right now tech is super dead maybe we will turn it around with CGC job in jeopardy on a talented somewhat young roster.

I guess my point by saying all this is that we don’t know. I think coach collins was just trying to survive the past 3 years. I also think he made the necessary changes with the staff. I know the team is tired of losing because I have some friends on the team that are tired of it, and yes they here the fans, oh and yes they see the empty stadium.

That last thing I will say is that if we want a good product on the field every year we should support the team more And give $$ maybe a car or 2 lol …… Obviously I know nobody wanted to go the Georgia game last year to get absolutely stopped on by those ****ing dawgs but damn the stadium was all red. Made me sick. I grew up watching tech and it looks like the fans and students have lost its tradition. I do believe that tech has a great opportunity if we start to win because we have Atlanta and all of those corporations in Atlanta to support the players. Hopefully we could take advantage of the NIL market but we are far behind already because of the losses. The time to win is now more than ever for the future of this program.

 

[bobongo]

Yeah, not to pile on, but when he talked about Temple being an elite team after that beat down, that was my first moment of slight doubt beginning to creep in.

I’m inoculated to all the crazy talk by now but I am still looking for concrete proof that CGC can coach.

My hopes are on the new assistants. And I'm hoping that even though the HC is fairly useless, his assistants can pull him through - and at least he's a good recruiter/cheerleader.
I don't know how likely it is for a lousy HC to succeed with good assistants, but it gives me something to hang my hat on this August.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

@billga99 if this team loses to WCU, it'll be very hard to win 5 games. That's our "easy" team on the schedule. That would be an epic disaster. We don't have wiggle room in one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

This isn't my forecast. I am pulling numbers from ESPN and Bovada here. If you believe that we'll get 5 wins this year, you could make good money in Vegas. You could make even better money betting on us to make a bowl game. Outside perception is that it would be very hard for Collins to hit 6 wins.

I doubt that 5 wins would be enough--he'd need other things in his favor--an amazing recruiting class, a signature win, other things in his favor. If he hits 5 wins, you also need to believe it's his new floor and not his ceiling. Winning 5 games might be enough for people to think about it for a while, especially if we end the season ahead on points (we win big in our wins and barely lose in our losses).

I can get to last year's FEI numbers, but for right now I'll go with the ESPN forecast for 2022. I'm not saying that I have any special belief in this rating--I don't--but it's a little less biased in favor of us than I am. Based on their projections, we're the #66 team in the country next year, which is a step up. Last year, we were #82. One piece of good news is that Notre Dame is off the schedule, and UCF and Ole Miss shouldn't be as good as Notre Dame was.

Right now, we should be favored against Western Carolina and Duke. VT would have us favored on neutral turf, but it's in Blacksburg--so closer to a toss-up.

Date	Opponent	Location	ESPN FPI	FPI Rank	Conference
5-Sep​	Clemson	The Benz	22.8​	4​	ACC
10-Sep​	Western Carolina	Home	unranked​	unranked​	Southern
17-Sep​	Ole Miss	Home	12.4​	17​	SEC
24-Sep​	UCF	Away	8.1​	34​	AAC
1-Oct​	Pitt	Away	11.1​	20​	ACC
8-Oct​	Duke	Home	-7.6​	101​	ACC
20-Oct​	UVA	Home	2.2​	55​	ACC
29-Oct​	FSU	Away	8.5​	33​	ACC
5-Nov​	VT	Away	-1.5​	73​	ACC
12-Nov​	Miami	Home	14.5​	9​	ACC
19-Nov​	UNC	Away	11.1​	19​	ACC
26-Nov​	UGA	Away	27.9​	3​	SEC

Here is the same table sorted by rank. To get to 6 wins on neutral fields, we either need to be better than FSU (basically be a borderline top 30 team) or get 3 to 4 upsets (depending on whether VT away is an "upset")

I'm not a gambler, but Bovada has our wins over/under at 3.5 wins for 2022.

Date	Opponent	Location	ESPN FPI	FPI Rank	Conference
26-Nov​	UGA	Away	27.9​	3​	SEC
5-Sep​	Clemson	The Benz	22.8​	4​	ACC
12-Nov​	Miami	Home	14.5​	9​	ACC
17-Sep​	Ole Miss	Home	12.4​	17​	SEC
19-Nov​	UNC	Away	11.1​	19​	ACC
1-Oct​	Pitt	Away	11.1​	20​	ACC
29-Oct​	FSU	Away	8.5​	33​	ACC
24-Sep​	UCF	Away	8.1​	34​	AAC
20-Oct​	UVA	Home	2.2​	55​	ACC
5-Nov​	VT	Away	-1.5​	73​	ACC
8-Oct​	Duke	Home	-7.6​	101​	ACC
10-Sep​	Western Carolina	Home	unranked​	unranked​	Southern

I think something that is not getting enough air time is the Western Carolina game. Other than KSU last year, what has given anyone confidence in the coaching staff that they can get a game plan together and coach up the team to beat a much lesser opponent? Also, this game is exactly 5 days after the Clemson game. With it being the first game of the year, a rivalry, last year's almost massive upset, neutral site at a NFL stadium, and big hype as a Chick-fil-A kickoff game, it sets up for a highly emotionally charged game. Can the team and coaching staff come back 5 days later with enough juice to prevent a massive let down against an opportunistic WCU team? Two games in one week is worrisome for me.

Since it's Collins' Alma Mater, you know he's going to heap praise on them in the days leading up to the game. If I was WCU's coach, I'd have this game circled and drilled through my players minds that this is our chance to do what The Citadel and NIU have done in years previous. I'd take NIU's 2nd half strategy and implement it from kickoff. Shove the ball down GT's throat until they can prove to me that they can stop it. Challenge them physically and mentally and make them prove they learned from NIU.

To me, this screams upset watch and how the team and coaching staff prepares and executes in this game will tell me more about how the season will go than Clemson will.

 

[slugboy]

I think something that is not getting enough air time is the Western Carolina game. Other than KSU last year, what has given anyone confidence in the coaching staff that they can get a game plan together and coach up the team to beat a much lesser opponent? Also, this game is exactly 5 days after the Clemson game. With it being the first game of the year, a rivalry, last year's almost massive upset, neutral site at a NFL stadium, and big hype as a Chick-fil-A kickoff game, it sets up for a highly emotionally charged game. Can the team and coaching staff come back 5 days later with enough juice to prevent a massive let down against an opportunistic WCU team? Two games in one week is worrisome for me.

Since it's Collins' Alma Mater, you know he's going to heap praise on them in the days leading up to the game. If I was WCU's coach, I'd have this game circled and drilled through my players minds that this is our chance to do what The Citadel and NIU have done in years previous. I'd take NIU's 2nd half strategy and implement it from kickoff. Shove the ball down GT's throat until they can prove to me that they can stop it. Challenge them physically and mentally and make them prove they learned from NIU.

To me, this screams upset watch and how the team and coaching staff prepares and executes in this game will tell me more about how the season will go than Clemson will.

1. Geoff Collins nearly got fired last year. Instead, he got the "I've got my man" vote of confidence and a year to prove himself
2. The bar has reportedly been set for 6 regular season wins as the bare minimum. Even if you think he can come back with 5 wins, the most disorganized coach in the world would look at his schedule in advance and chart a path to 6 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins, and maybe even 9 wins. On every one of those paths, WCU is circled as a win. It's a must-win game.
3. Almost any successful path to a break-even season has us going no worse than 2-2 in our first four games. Otherwise, we're getting the majority of our wins in away games.
4. You have a coach that lost to The Citadel, Syracuse, and NIU in successive seasons. If Collins hasn't learned "you can't take any game for granted" by now, he's incapable of learning that lesson.
5. If we lose to WCU, I'm not sure I even see Collins giving a press conference the same day--I would expect an interim head coach almost immediately.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

1. Geoff Collins nearly got fired last year. Instead, he got the "I've got my man" vote of confidence and a year to prove himself
2. The bar has reportedly been set for 6 regular season wins as the bare minimum. Even if you think he can come back with 5 wins, the most disorganized coach in the world would look at his schedule in advance and chart a path to 6 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins, and maybe even 9 wins. On every one of those paths, WCU is circled as a win. It's a must-win game.
3. Almost any successful path to a break-even season has us going no worse than 2-2 in our first four games. Otherwise, we're getting the majority of our wins in away games.
4. You have a coach that lost to The Citadel, Syracuse, and NIU in successive seasons. If Collins hasn't learned "you can't take any game for granted" by now, he's incapable of learning that lesson.
5. If we lose to WCU, I'm not sure I even see Collins giving a press conference the same day--I would expect an interim head coach almost immediately.

Doesn't he have to coach out the whole year so we get the payout off our back? Or was that last year?

 

[bobongo]

If we lose to WCU, I'm not sure I even see Collins giving a press conference the same day--I would expect an interim head coach almost immediately.

I don't think Stansbury would do that and sacrifice ~$7 million and hire an interim coach to finish out a lost season. He'd see it through.

But since we're what iffin', I could see Tech beating Clemson and losing to WCU. College football's like that.

 

[BuzzDraft]

Doesn't he have to coach out the whole year so we get the payout off our back? Or was that last year?

If he's relieved of duties before end of the 2022 season, his entire contract is fully guaranteed so he would get paid for the remainder of this season plus $10.5 million for the remaining three seasons on the contract.

If he's relieved after the season ends, the guarantee expires and he gets $7.2 million for the remaining three seasons.

If he is going to be fired, it's a lost season anyway so they should allow him to lame duck it until December and save $3.3 million off the buyout

However, the AD could be fired mid season - he doesn't have a $10 million buyout - which would give the new AD time to establish their program, get settled in, and get a head start on vetting candidates for the next coach in time for December interviews.

 

[RonJohn]

If he's relieved of duties before end of the 2022 season, his entire contract is fully guaranteed so he would get paid for the remainder of this season plus $10.5 million for the remaining three seasons on the contract.

If he's relieved after the season ends, the guarantee expires and he gets $7.2 million for the remaining three seasons.

If he is going to be fired, it's a lost season anyway so they should allow him to lame duck it until December and save $3.3 million off the buyout

However, the AD could be fired mid season - he doesn't have a $10 million buyout - which would give the new AD time to establish their program, get settled in, and get a head start on vetting candidates for the next coach in time for December interviews.

IF a loss to WCU happened and everyone absolutely knew that he was going to be fired, I think it would be likely that CGC would negotiate something between the full buyout and the buyout at the end of the season. It would be a very bad spot to be in. The assistants would probably be spending some time looking for new positions for the next year. The press would be asking extremely tough questions about why he was still there. At that point, there wouldn't be much that a HC could accomplish that would improve chances of getting another position in the near future. The buyout is now down to $7.2 or $10.5 million. In such a situation, it would be in the interest of both parties to reach an agreement at something like $8.5 million.

I am not predicting that we will be in this situation, only making an observation that it is very possible that some agreement could be reached if we do get into that position.

 

[g0lftime]

IF a loss to WCU happened and everyone absolutely knew that he was going to be fired, I think it would be likely that CGC would negotiate something between the full buyout and the buyout at the end of the season. It would be a very bad spot to be in. The assistants would probably be spending some time looking for new positions for the next year. The press would be asking extremely tough questions about why he was still there. At that point, there wouldn't be much that a HC could accomplish that would improve chances of getting another position in the near future. The buyout is now down to $7.2 or $10.5 million. In such a situation, it would be in the interest of both parties to reach an agreement at something like $8.5 million.

I am not predicting that we will be in this situation, only making an observation that it is very possible that some agreement could be reached if we do get into that position.

Unfortunately if the season is tanking by mid season, the assistant coaches will be job hunting anyway.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

1. Geoff Collins nearly got fired last year. Instead, he got the "I've got my man" vote of confidence and a year to prove himself
2. The bar has reportedly been set for 6 regular season wins as the bare minimum. Even if you think he can come back with 5 wins, the most disorganized coach in the world would look at his schedule in advance and chart a path to 6 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins, and maybe even 9 wins. On every one of those paths, WCU is circled as a win. It's a must-win game.
3. Almost any successful path to a break-even season has us going no worse than 2-2 in our first four games. Otherwise, we're getting the majority of our wins in away games.
4. You have a coach that lost to The Citadel, Syracuse, and NIU in successive seasons. If Collins hasn't learned "you can't take any game for granted" by now, he's incapable of learning that lesson.
5. If we lose to WCU, I'm not sure I even see Collins giving a press conference the same day--I would expect an interim head coach almost immediately.

Oh I completely agree with your takes on the situation, I was more so pointing out that while many people (and rightfully so) are giving their takes on what we should do against Clemson and how it will dictate the season, my POV is on the WCU game and how we respond in that game will be a greater representation of our season.

Collins has to know this is his make or break year. He also has to know the fan base is fed up with these "must win" games that we don't show up for. If we win convincingly against WCU, and I mean a whole, complete game where we are dictating every facet, not just a large margin at the end due to us wearing them down (see KSU), I will have a lot more confidence in the season than what we show against Clemson.

I think your points are spot on. If we are going to have any chance for a .500 or better season, we have to beat WCU. If we lose, its the final nail in the coffin for Collins and I think he knows it.

 

[Lotta Booze]

If he's relieved of duties before end of the 2022 season, his entire contract is fully guaranteed so he would get paid for the remainder of this season plus $10.5 million for the remaining three seasons on the contract.

If he's relieved after the season ends, the guarantee expires and he gets $7.2 million for the remaining three seasons.

If he is going to be fired, it's a lost season anyway so they should allow him to lame duck it until December and save $3.3 million off the buyout

However, the AD could be fired mid season - he doesn't have a $10 million buyout - which would give the new AD time to establish their program, get settled in, and get a head start on vetting candidates for the next coach in time for December interviews.

If he were to lose to WC I think you have to pull the trigger and eat the $3M and get in the coaching market early.

$3M is a lot of money to casually toss aside willy nilly but I'd worry about what coaches are remaining in December if we were to wait that long and what the whole coaches market looks like. Including coordinators

I think VT had a similar issue last year where they would have saved a couple million in Fuente's buyout if they waited until December but they fired him in November and at that point there were already 5 other P5 schools with open jobs looking for coaches. They must've determined they needed to move quickly to get their guy and that was worth a couple million rather than waiting a few weeks

I don't know how GT's finances stack up with VT's (I assume not well) but there is a chance you miss on the coach you want because you're waiting to save $3M on a buyout. However, if we're going after a coach no one else wants then maybe it is worth saving that money for other things

 

[stech81]

If we lose to WCU, I'm not sure I even see Collins giving a press conference the same day--I would expect an interim head coach almost immediately.

Why not . he has had a lot practiced giving a press conferences after a loss.

 

[CEB]

Questions...

Anyone have any idea what he has been paid year to date 2022?
Is the buyout really dropping $3M as of the end of the season?

The reason I ask is because he is making about $3M per year. I have no idea if that runs a calendar year, or a football season start, or a football season finish. Theoretically the buyout drops because it assumes we’ve paid him his salary for 2022, so if he were fired with a third of 2022 left and you had to pay the increased buyout, would the $3M difference not be offset (at least somewhat) by about $1M... the portion of the year unpaid?

The point still stands if the actual figure is $2M... that’s a lot of money to eat. Im not sure I buy this notion of getting in the coaching search early either, as no one successful is committing until the end of the season anyway. My gut says the only reason to do this early is if we have our next coach on staff already (lots of conjecture; debated already) or if the guy you want is not currently working and you can announce and start the transition now.
Otherwise, let it ride this year and work on keeping kids interested and working hard. Nothing prevents talking and even interviewing (quietly) once we know it’s a foregone conclusion...

 

[RamblinRed]

Questions...

Anyone have any idea what he has been paid year to date 2022?
Is the buyout really dropping $3M as of the end of the season?

The reason I ask is because he is making about $3M per year. I have no idea if that runs a calendar year, or a football season start, or a football season finish. Theoretically the buyout drops because it assumes we’ve paid him his salary for 2022, so if he were fired with a third of 2022 left and you had to pay the increased buyout, would the $3M difference not be offset (at least somewhat) by about $1M... the portion of the year unpaid?

The point still stands if the actual figure is $2M... that’s a lot of money to eat. Im not sure I buy this notion of getting in the coaching search early either, as no one successful is committing until the end of the season anyway. My gut says the only reason to do this early is if we have our next coach on staff already (lots of conjecture; debated already) or if the guy you want is not currently working and you can announce and start the transition now.
Otherwise, let it ride this year and work on keeping kids interested and working hard. Nothing prevents talking and even interviewing (quietly) once we know it’s a foregone conclusion...

The difference is that if he is fired before the end of year 4 his contract is fully guaranteed so he would be paid the full remaining value of the contract.
If he is fired after season 4 then the contract is not fully guaranteed and he would be paid a set amount of money ($2.4MM per year) for the remaining 3 years. So that is what is causing the $3MM difference,