Here's a thought

JacketFan137

Helluva Engineer
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2,063
it would ultimately depend on where those 5 wins came from and how we looked in the losses. if the big games (clemson, ole miss and uga) are just thrashings and we look lost and the 5 wins are just acc wins against bad teams i don’t think that will be enough

if we can win one of the big 3 games and be competitive in the other 2, and avoid any shocking losses then i think there’s a chance he remains in charge.

i also think a big factor will be what the offense does under long. 5-7 with the offense looking good and the defense looking bad may lead us to fire collins and just bump long up because ultimately a little continuity will help going forward.
 

seanfloyd18

Georgia Tech Fan
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48
Clemson- L (looks close)
WCU- W
Ole Miss- L (we don’t embarrass ourselves)
UCF- L (close game, away)
Pitt- L (close game)
Duke- W
UVA- W
FSU- W
VT- L (close game)
Miami- L (close game)
UNC- W
uGA- L (score 20+ points)

If something like this happens, imo as much as the Collins haters may be right that he won’t ever get us to elite status, monetarily it makes more sense to keep him. Coastal should still be a crapshoot, if Clemson, UCF, Pitt, Miami are winnable games where we just fall short, that’s a decent trend for me.
 

JacketFan137

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,063
Clemson- L (looks close)
WCU- W
Ole Miss- L (we don’t embarrass ourselves)
UCF- L (close game, away)
Pitt- L (close game)
Duke- W
UVA- W
FSU- W
VT- L (close game)
Miami- L (close game)
UNC- W
uGA- L (score 20+ points)

If something like this happens, imo as much as the Collins haters may be right that he won’t ever get us to elite status, monetarily it makes more sense to keep him. Coastal should still be a crapshoot, if Clemson, UCF, Pitt, Miami are winnable games where we just fall short, that’s a decent trend for me.
i think if that happens and collins pulls in another recruiting class like 2020 we probably would keep him
 

seanfloyd18

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
48
i think if that happens and collins pulls in another recruiting class like 2020 we probably would keep him
The momentum really needs us to go bowling though; I am doubting Collins 2023 recruiting year. If we want 2024 to be like these last 3 classes, I think 6 wins is the minimum.

That said, in the above “season” I wrote, if we go into our last 4 games 4-4, I feel like we get more than one win out of UNC, VT, Miami.

Starting 1-4 and bringing it back to 4-4 and maybe sneaking a 6-6 season might be our literal best case scenario.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
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2,647
Ill just quote a prominent donor whose opinion matters more than mine.
If you win four, five, six games next year, that’s probably what you are,” he said. “The rebuild’s over. It kind of is what it is now. If we want to compete for the Coastal Division, (if) we want to get this program to the next level, how do you win six games, or even seven games, in your fourth year?
So no. 5 wins is a no go. It's over at that point.
 

cthenrys

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
934
Location
Highland Village, TX
Clemson- L (looks close)
WCU- W
Ole Miss- L (we don’t embarrass ourselves)
UCF- L (close game, away)
Pitt- L (close game)
Duke- W
UVA- W
FSU- W
VT- L (close game)
Miami- L (close game)
UNC- W
uGA- L (score 20+ points)

If something like this happens, imo as much as the Collins haters may be right that he won’t ever get us to elite status, monetarily it makes more sense to keep him. Coastal should still be a crapshoot, if Clemson, UCF, Pitt, Miami are winnable games where we just fall short, that’s a decent trend for me.
I think in this scenario he stays and gets another chance (and the buyout is one year less if he doesn't make a significant jump in 2023). ADTS said we needed to "look like we belong" this year, although he said the same before the 2021 season...

If Im betting I still say ADTS is the first to go.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,699
Just to make an observation, if Collins went 5-7, he would be the first Tech coach since 1932 to post four straight losing seasons (which William Alexander did survive).
 

candrewk

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
51
Ill just quote a prominent donor whose opinion matters more than mine.

So no. 5 wins is a no go. It's over at that point.
Was this donor in favor of firing Paul Johnson in 2017? That’s how many games he won with an almost identical schedule.

I think if boosters put up double what his contract buyout is, then we might fire him, but 5 wins this year pretty much guarantees bowling next year.
 

Billygoat91

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
338
I think it is possible but optics would be a big part of it. It would be similar to Scott Frost at Nebraska last year. 9 losses, 8 of them were by less than one score.

Stansbury made a comment similar to this at one point last year and, while I appreciate it, it didn't account for the feeling of us being out of the game most of the time.

5-7, competitive through out the game, and a small point differential may keep him here.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,647
Was this donor in favor of firing Paul Johnson in 2017? That’s how many games he won with an almost identical schedule.

I think if boosters put up double what his contract buyout is, then we might fire him, but 5 wins this year pretty much guarantees bowling next year.
I don't know what Garrett's feelings were after the 2017 season but there is a pretty big difference in winning 5 games after a 9 win season vs winning 5 games after 9 wins in three years. If Collins wants to win 9 this year with a win over UGA and 5 next year im sure the conversation will be different.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,699
I don't know what Garrett's feelings were after the 2017 season but there is a pretty big difference in winning 5 games after a 9 win season vs winning 5 games after 9 wins in three years. If Collins wants to win 9 this year with a win over UGA and 5 next year im sure the conversation will be different.
Exactly. Another example is William Alexander, who was the last Tech coach to have four straight losing seasons, and he survived it.
But the year before the losing streak, he went 10-0 and won the national championship.
It's the cumulative effect.
 

BuzzDraft

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
225
As the Book of Armaments, Chapter 2, Verses 9 through 21 sayeth...
"Five is RIGHT OUT!"

5 just won't do it, but reaching 5 is likely a moot point anyway. 6 is bare minimum or some power boosters are going to make a move, and also Stansbury will have to answer for his "I have my man" retort to those boosters who wanted to make the change last December. The buyout this December is significantly lower than it was last December also. The decrease from this December to December 2023 is not nearly as stark, plus he will have walked away with another $3.4 million of GTAA money for year 5.

In the poll I predicted 4 wins, but had no idea where the other 2 could come from after my "likely" WCU and Duke. My third "closest to a tossup" pick would be Homecoming vs UVa to get us to 3 like last year, when we reached 3-3 then face-planted on a 6 game losing streak with a few of them being historically bad performances. If I had to name a fourth, which I categorize as a "least unlikely win", it would be an unlikely win at Va Poly, or we simply shock someone out of the blue who's looking ahead to their next game like UNC last year. The UCF game will be the early canary in a coal mine indicating where this team will eventually end up.

They will have to make all their hay in the first 7 games, because those last 5 are going to be a bear, with 4 on the road and ThugU being the only home game, and that one will probably be played in front of hundreds of Tech fans. I hope I'm wildly wrong (and I don't mean if they win only 2), but even Vegas has one over/under line set at 3.5 wins.
 
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