Here's a thought

[CEB]

when exactly was that because that has not been the case any time in the last 20 years. 2008-2009 is the only time we’ve been ranked two consecutive years come end of season. not like we have some excellent pedigree. our PREVIOUS 2 coaches averaged 7 wins a season.

Nit picked. Thanks

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

nah brother its you living in a dream world, asking him to beat UGA this year to keep his job after securing 5 wins is just ridiculous. I know even YOU deep down don't believe this. 5 wins and he stays regardless if he beats UGA or not. You'll see, you can keep on living in candy land. Per my top source who's a huge GT donor (am i doing this right?) 5 wins with or without a UGA win, we keep CGC another year.

That would be 6 wins. What I am saying there is no way he stays with only 5 wins. Unless one of those 5 is uga. Plus there is almost no way he beats UGA so he needs 6 or more to stay and that would include a loss to UGA.

 

[kalld12]

That would be 6 wins. What I am saying there is no way he stays with only 5 wins. Unless one of those 5 is uga. Plus there is almost no way he beats UGA so he needs 6 or more to stay and that would include a loss to UGA.

This is where we disagree and that's ok. With this years schedule, Tstan knows 5 wins is the benchmark.

 

[orientalnc]

Obviously, we all want more than 5 or 6 winning games. I think the real test will be how we lose. Close fought games where our guys were fighting to push through in the 4th quarter better be the norm for losses. None like the final two last year.

 

[kalld12]

Obviously, we all want more than 5 or 6 winning games. I think the real test will be how we lose. Close fought games where our guys were fighting to push through in the 4th quarter better be the norm for losses. None like the final two last year.

100%, it'll be about the amount of games won and how we fought/battled (need to show discipline on both sides of ball and better time management) in the games we lost which will decide CGC's fate.

 

[Vespidae]

This is where we disagree and that's ok. With this years schedule, Tstan knows 5 wins is the benchmark.

There is more to a decision than wins and losses, especially FIVE wins. I'm sure TStan is looking at a) donation rates this year and a 5-year trend, b) season ticket renewals, c) positive mentions in the press (you can buy a media analysis, so it's not like he's reading these him selves), d) player satisfaction, etc.

Butch Jones at UT had, among other supporters, Peyton Manning ... and that wasn't enough. No, the overall picture was a program trend that was in decline measured by season ticket sales, attendance, suite sales (this was a biggee), and the unrelenting media in Knoxville. Not to mention how badly he lost the locker room.

Look beyond just wins. There's more to running a program than that. Personally, I think Geoff is gone after this season and a "mutual parting".

 

[JacketFan137]

There is more to a decision than wins and losses, especially FIVE wins. I'm sure TStan is looking at a) donation rates this year and a 5-year trend, b) season ticket renewals, c) positive mentions in the press (you can buy a media analysis, so it's not like he's reading these him selves), d) player satisfaction, etc.

Butch Jones at UT had, among other supporters, Peyton Manning ... and that wasn't enough. No, the overall picture was a program trend that was in decline measured by season ticket sales, attendance, suite sales (this was a biggee), and the unrelenting media in Knoxville. Not to mention how badly he lost the locker room.

Look beyond just wins. There's more to running a program than that. Personally, I think Geoff is gone after this season and a "mutual parting".

i think it’s pretty clear by now that a very vocal and significant amount of our fanbase does not want a “new school coach”. if our next guy mentions anything about branding, they smile during the press conference or wear a certain type of jeans he will be given the same treatment before we even take the field for a game.

 

[CEB]

i think it’s pretty clear by now that a very vocal and significant amount of our fanbase does not want a “new school coach”. if our next guy mentions anything about branding, they smile during the press conference or wear a certain type of jeans he will be given the same treatment before we even take the field for a game.

I think this is a ridiculous exaggeration. I think a very vocal and significant amount of our fan base want quality football.
If we start winning 8 or 9 a season and this place is up in arms about the coach-speak and skinny jeans, come back and tell me “I told you so.”

Caveat: I still retain the right to critique uniforms without you invoking the “I told you so” clause.

 

[billga99]

I think it will take 5 or 6 wins for Collins to stay. The big caveat to me is twofold...no losing to teams you clearly should beat easily (ie Citadel and Northern Illinois) and no more complete blowouts.

 

[InsideLB]

IMO our OL & DL just aren't there yet and schedule is being recognized by media as among top 5 most difficult. Unless a lot goes right for GT in terms of players breaking through/breaking out, coaching changes panning out hugely, QB playing very well, etc, etc, I don't see GT sniffing 5 wins. Predicting 3 and Collins gone.

 

[kalld12]

I think it will take 5 or 6 wins for Collins to stay. The big caveat to me is twofold...no losing to teams you clearly should beat easily (ie Citadel and Northern Illinois) and no more complete blowouts.

100% sir.

 

[slugboy]

@billga99 if this team loses to WCU, it'll be very hard to win 5 games. That's our "easy" team on the schedule. That would be an epic disaster. We don't have wiggle room in one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

This isn't my forecast. I am pulling numbers from ESPN and Bovada here. If you believe that we'll get 5 wins this year, you could make good money in Vegas. You could make even better money betting on us to make a bowl game. Outside perception is that it would be very hard for Collins to hit 6 wins.

I doubt that 5 wins would be enough--he'd need other things in his favor--an amazing recruiting class, a signature win, other things in his favor. If he hits 5 wins, you also need to believe it's his new floor and not his ceiling. Winning 5 games might be enough for people to think about it for a while, especially if we end the season ahead on points (we win big in our wins and barely lose in our losses).

I can get to last year's FEI numbers, but for right now I'll go with the ESPN forecast for 2022. I'm not saying that I have any special belief in this rating--I don't--but it's a little less biased in favor of us than I am. Based on their projections, we're the #66 team in the country next year, which is a step up. Last year, we were #82. One piece of good news is that Notre Dame is off the schedule, and UCF and Ole Miss shouldn't be as good as Notre Dame was.

Right now, we should be favored against Western Carolina and Duke. VT would have us favored on neutral turf, but it's in Blacksburg--so closer to a toss-up.

Date	Opponent	Location	ESPN FPI	FPI Rank	Conference
5-Sep​	Clemson	The Benz	22.8​	4​	ACC
10-Sep​	Western Carolina	Home	unranked​	unranked​	Southern
17-Sep​	Ole Miss	Home	12.4​	17​	SEC
24-Sep​	UCF	Away	8.1​	34​	AAC
1-Oct​	Pitt	Away	11.1​	20​	ACC
8-Oct​	Duke	Home	-7.6​	101​	ACC
20-Oct​	UVA	Home	2.2​	55​	ACC
29-Oct​	FSU	Away	8.5​	33​	ACC
5-Nov​	VT	Away	-1.5​	73​	ACC
12-Nov​	Miami	Home	14.5​	9​	ACC
19-Nov​	UNC	Away	11.1​	19​	ACC
26-Nov​	UGA	Away	27.9​	3​	SEC

Here is the same table sorted by rank. To get to 6 wins on neutral fields, we either need to be better than FSU (basically be a borderline top 30 team) or get 3 to 4 upsets (depending on whether VT away is an "upset")

I'm not a gambler, but Bovada has our wins over/under at 3.5 wins for 2022.

Date	Opponent	Location	ESPN FPI	FPI Rank	Conference
26-Nov​	UGA	Away	27.9​	3​	SEC
5-Sep​	Clemson	The Benz	22.8​	4​	ACC
12-Nov​	Miami	Home	14.5​	9​	ACC
17-Sep​	Ole Miss	Home	12.4​	17​	SEC
19-Nov​	UNC	Away	11.1​	19​	ACC
1-Oct​	Pitt	Away	11.1​	20​	ACC
29-Oct​	FSU	Away	8.5​	33​	ACC
24-Sep​	UCF	Away	8.1​	34​	AAC
20-Oct​	UVA	Home	2.2​	55​	ACC
5-Nov​	VT	Away	-1.5​	73​	ACC
8-Oct​	Duke	Home	-7.6​	101​	ACC
10-Sep​	Western Carolina	Home	unranked​	unranked​	Southern

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

i think it’s pretty clear by now that a very vocal and significant amount of our fanbase does not want a “new school coach”. if our next guy mentions anything about branding, they smile during the press conference or wear a certain type of jeans he will be given the same treatment before we even take the field for a game.

I think it clear by now that the VAST majority of fans don't give a Rats Butt what style of coach we have as long as he wins. A new school coach to wins 3-3-3-(3-6) is a total failure and a huge setback for the jackets. A 3O coach that goes 3-3-3-(3-6) is also a total failure.

 

[JacketFan137]

I think it clear by now that the VAST majority of fans don't give a Rats Butt what style of coach we have as long as he wins. A new school coach to wins 3-3-3-(3-6) is a total failure and a huge setback for the jackets. A 3O coach that goes 3-3-3-(3-6) is also a total failure.

there’s another comment in another thread that specifically mentioned older season ticket holders being annoyed with money down and all that.

obviously winning soothes over a lot of complaints, but i think acting like people were ok with collins quirks is a bit of revisionist history. i really think it’s gonna take an old school fake tough guy persona to reel that portion of the fanbase back in. if a guy comes in and is in any way like geoff you’re gonna immediately see people complain it’s the same thing.

 

[yeti92]

there’s another comment in another thread that specifically mentioned older season ticket holders being annoyed with money down and all that.

obviously winning soothes over a lot of complaints, but i think acting like people were ok with collins quirks is a bit of revisionist history. i really think it’s gonna take an old school fake tough guy persona to reel that portion of the fanbase back in. if a guy comes in and is in any way like geoff you’re gonna immediately see people complain it’s the same thing.

As far as Collin's quirks being a point of complaints, I think that's kind of hard to tell. I don't think anyone was demanding he be fired before he coached a game. There were certainly some early comments about it being weird or people not getting it before he coached a game for us, but they seemed to be mostly "hmm that's weird, but okay if that's what the kids are into and it will help us win/recruit, go for it". I remember the way he stands in recruiting pictures was a point of focus, people wondering if he had some sort of foot issue. There wasn't really a lot of people saying we are going to suck because he wears skinny jeans with no socks, or because he wants to blast music at practice, or in the stadium instead of hear the band.

Unfortunately for him, he very very quickly made a series of serious errors:

- Losing game 3 at home to the Citadel, a very mediocre FCS school running GT's highly controversial former offense

-Following that up with a game 4 drubbing at the hands of Temple, Collin's former G5 team. 0 points were scored offensively, despite having a bye week the week before giving the team extra time for preparation. Verbally fellating Temple in the post game press conference did not do him any favors either.

Those two events back to back turned up the criticisms of Collins very fast, and he has continued to make large blunders with little in the way of redeeming wins since.

 

[RamblinRed]

@billga99 if this team loses to WCU, it'll be very hard to win 5 games. That's our "easy" team on the schedule. That would be an epic disaster. We don't have wiggle room in one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

This isn't my forecast. I am pulling numbers from ESPN and Bovada here. If you believe that we'll get 5 wins this year, you could make good money in Vegas. You could make even better money betting on us to make a bowl game. Outside perception is that it would be very hard for Collins to hit 6 wins.

I doubt that 5 wins would be enough--he'd need other things in his favor--an amazing recruiting class, a signature win, other things in his favor. If he hits 5 wins, you also need to believe it's his new floor and not his ceiling. Winning 5 games might be enough for people to think about it for a while, especially if we end the season ahead on points (we win big in our wins and barely lose in our losses).

I can get to last year's FEI numbers, but for right now I'll go with the ESPN forecast for 2022. I'm not saying that I have any special belief in this rating--I don't--but it's a little less biased in favor of us than I am. Based on their projections, we're the #66 team in the country next year, which is a step up. Last year, we were #82. One piece of good news is that Notre Dame is off the schedule, and UCF and Ole Miss shouldn't be as good as Notre Dame was.

Right now, we should be favored against Western Carolina and Duke. VT would have us favored on neutral turf, but it's in Blacksburg--so closer to a toss-up.

Date	Opponent	Location	ESPN FPI	FPI Rank	Conference
5-Sep​	Clemson	The Benz	22.8​	4​	ACC
10-Sep​	Western Carolina	Home	unranked​	unranked​	Southern
17-Sep​	Ole Miss	Home	12.4​	17​	SEC
24-Sep​	UCF	Away	8.1​	34​	AAC
1-Oct​	Pitt	Away	11.1​	20​	ACC
8-Oct​	Duke	Home	-7.6​	101​	ACC
20-Oct​	UVA	Home	2.2​	55​	ACC
29-Oct​	FSU	Away	8.5​	33​	ACC
5-Nov​	VT	Away	-1.5​	73​	ACC
12-Nov​	Miami	Home	14.5​	9​	ACC
19-Nov​	UNC	Away	11.1​	19​	ACC
26-Nov​	UGA	Away	27.9​	3​	SEC

Here is the same table sorted by rank. To get to 6 wins on neutral fields, we either need to be better than FSU (basically be a borderline top 30 team) or get 3 to 4 upsets (depending on whether VT away is an "upset")

I'm not a gambler, but Bovada has our wins over/under at 3.5 wins for 2022.

Date	Opponent	Location	ESPN FPI	FPI Rank	Conference
26-Nov​	UGA	Away	27.9​	3​	SEC
5-Sep​	Clemson	The Benz	22.8​	4​	ACC
12-Nov​	Miami	Home	14.5​	9​	ACC
17-Sep​	Ole Miss	Home	12.4​	17​	SEC
19-Nov​	UNC	Away	11.1​	19​	ACC
1-Oct​	Pitt	Away	11.1​	20​	ACC
29-Oct​	FSU	Away	8.5​	33​	ACC
24-Sep​	UCF	Away	8.1​	34​	AAC
20-Oct​	UVA	Home	2.2​	55​	ACC
5-Nov​	VT	Away	-1.5​	73​	ACC
8-Oct​	Duke	Home	-7.6​	101​	ACC
10-Sep​	Western Carolina	Home	unranked​	unranked​	Southern

The bottom 4 are obviously the 4 most likely wins - and three of those games are at home.
What makes getting up to six wins difficult is that the next 4 most winnable games include 3 road games, which will make them more difficult to pull off (especially when we have not won more than 1 road game a season under Collins).

 

[awbuzz]

there’s another comment in another thread that specifically mentioned older season ticket holders being annoyed with money down and all that.

obviously winning soothes over a lot of complaints, but i think acting like people were ok with collins quirks is a bit of revisionist history. i really think it’s gonna take an old school fake tough guy persona to reel that portion of the fanbase back in. if a guy comes in and is in any way like geoff you’re gonna immediately see people complain it’s the same thing.

If we were winning 10 - 15 games a year, beating UGa one to two thirds of the time, etc., I don't think the "older" season ticket holders would be as annoyed for sure. WINNING resolves lots of grievances, or said another way, folks will bite their tongues and stay quieton things like skinny jeans, pink hair, "elite" hype, and the other things that are aggravate some folks.
I.e. CGC could hug every player and pat them on the back and say "it's alright" after they fouled up, IF we are winning at a "high level".

 

[dmel25]

I know this is crazy but we almost beat Clemson AT Clemson last year.. We get them first game this year where they have new coordinators, we have a competent OC now, and it's at home. I would not be surprised if we squeak out a win on Clemson this year. I also think we beat these teams:

WCU - we should win this easy
Pitt - it's away but they lost their two best players in Pickett and Addison
Duke - I think we have broken the duke curse on us
Virginia - they only have Armstrong so we beat them
VT - new HC and QB
UNC - they no longer have Howell and we beat them decently last year

I'm iffy on these two teams:

Miami - we always play them tough and they have a new HC, plus it's a home game, so maybe?
UCF - we will want revenge for the bullcrap game two years ago and they lost their QB but the refs might screw us again.

I think we lose to to UGA and Ole Miss.

So all in all I think GT can win 7-9 games if we beat Clemson that first game of the year. But I may be trying to be optimistic..

 

[Techfan02]

I know this is crazy but we almost beat Clemson AT Clemson last year.. We get them first game this year where they have new coordinators, we have a competent OC now, and it's at home. I would not be surprised if we squeak out a win on Clemson this year. I also think we beat these teams:

WCU - we should win this easy
Pitt - it's away but they lost their two best players in Pickett and Addison
Duke - I think we have broken the duke curse on us
Virginia - they only have Armstrong so we beat them
VT - new HC and QB
UNC - they no longer have Howell and we beat them decently last year

I'm iffy on these two teams:

Miami - we always play them tough and they have a new HC, plus it's a home game, so maybe?
UCF - we will want revenge for the bullcrap game two years ago and they lost their QB but the refs might screw us again.

I think we lose to to UGA and Ole Miss.

So all in all I think GT can win 7-9 games if we beat Clemson that first game of the year. But I may be trying to be optimistic..

I'm on the 7-5 right now If clemson is a rout and we look cluless then less if we just get outmaned and come back next week then I still keep that prediction

 

[orientalnc]

I am not betting on this team. For or against. Irrespective of the line.

If you are, you have bigger balls than I. Or a lot more money.