Has the ACC fallen to the bottom of the Power 5?

[forensicbuzz]

I hate this Conference Pride crap. When I was in school, we wanted all of our conference foes to lose every game they played, or to tie when they played each other. It wasn't until the SEC started bragging about how they just beat each other up and that their 8-3 teams were better than other conferences' 10-1 teams. Occurred simultaneously with all these bowl tie-ins. As much as it sucked, it was better for individual schools when the bowls were free to invite whomever they wanted.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Over the last decade, among current P5 conferences the ACC has

• The worst bowl W%
• The worst OOC W% by a significant margin
• The worst OOC P5 W% by a significant margin
• The 3rd best record in NY6 games

View attachment 9663

As I said before, the ACC is closer to the AAC than it is the SEC

Also, when you take out the top team from each conference every year, the ACC is by far the worst, and actually has a lower total W% than the AAC


And for those that want to blame the terrible OOC record on the traditional SEC rivalry games, the record against just the B1G, Big 12, and PAC-12 are just as bad


34-54 is good for a 0.386 W%, which is basically identical to the W% when SEC games are included.

I don’t really care about conference strength as a whole. I care about Georgia Tech, and winning the ACC will likely be enough to get into the CFP in any given year. But to say the ACC is just as good as the SEC, or no worse than 2nd or 3rd overall is asinine.

And yet we have the 2nd most bowl wins over that period, and the 2nd most BCS/NY6 bowl wins. One year GT played more P5/G6 OOC games than half the SEC combined. It all depends on what numbers you choose. Hard to argue we’re the worst when we’re at the top of so many categories.

Just counted through FEI. If my math is correct, in the top 45:
ACC: 8
B10: 7
P12: 7
B12: 6
SEC: 5

For every negative stat someone throws out, there's a positive one.

 

[JacketOff]

And yet we have the 2nd most bowl wins over that period, and the 2nd most BCS/NY6 bowl wins. One year GT played more P5/G6 OOC games than half the SEC combined. It all depends on what numbers you choose. Hard to argue we’re the worst when we’re at the top of so many categories.

Just counted through FEI. If my math is correct, in the top 45:
ACC: 8
B10: 7
P12: 7
B12: 6
SEC: 5

For every negative stat someone throws out, there's a positive one.

3 of the 8 ACC teams in the top 45 have losing records. The ACC also had 15 members this year, more than any other conference. FWIW, the B1G had 2 of their 7 teams with losing records, the PAC-12 had 1, the Big 12 had none, and the SEC had none. Does it really matter if someone’s FEI is high if they aren’t any good? Louisville is rated 44th in FEI, but they went 4-7 and finished 12th in the ACC. Wake Forest is rated 39th in FEI but finished 4-5 and 10th in the ACC.

Also, year-to-year FEI rankings are about as useful as looking at how many teams finish a season ranked: they’re not useful at all. Last year, the ACC had just 2 teams finish in the top 45 in FEI. Compared to:

• SEC - 9
• B1G - 8
• Big 12 - 7
• PAC 12 - 5
• American - 7

Looking at year-to-year results instead of overall trends is not useful in determining anything. The ACC is not at the top in any useful data point when you look at the whole picture.

 

[ncjacket79]

Over the last decade, among current P5 conferences the ACC has

• The worst bowl W%
• The worst OOC W% by a significant margin
• The worst OOC P5 W% by a significant margin
• The 3rd best record in NY6 games

View attachment 9663

As I said before, the ACC is closer to the AAC than it is the SEC

Also, when you take out the top team from each conference every year, the ACC is by far the worst, and actually has a lower total W% than the AAC


And for those that want to blame the terrible OOC record on the traditional SEC rivalry games, the record against just the B1G, Big 12, and PAC-12 are just as bad


34-54 is good for a 0.386 W%, which is basically identical to the W% when SEC games are included.

I don’t really care about conference strength as a whole. I care about Georgia Tech, and winning the ACC will likely be enough to get into the CFP in any given year. But to say the ACC is just as good as the SEC, or no worse than 2nd or 3rd overall is asinine.

What about the last 5 years? I don’t know of any business that looks at trends over that long of a time period anymore. Things change too quickly.

 

[GT_EE78]

Yea all this depends on how you define it. Over the last several years, we're one of the better conferences, all things considered.

In 2018 and 2019 we were pretty damned poor. We finished with only a few teams ranked. This year we returned to a more normal metric for us with 5 ranked teams and 7 teams with 6+ wins...both of those are higher than any other conference. But we had a very poor bowl game performance.

The SEC can yell "We won a ton of bowl games!" but they finished with only 4 ranked teams, and only 5 teams with 6+ wins (including bowl games). The SEC had 9 teams who didn't finish with a winning record.

two had a .500 record though. that's 7 of 14.
Sounds like you're trying to prove they played a conference only schedule?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

3 of the 8 ACC teams in the top 45 have losing records. The ACC also had 15 members this year, more than any other conference. FWIW, the B1G had 2 of their 7 teams with losing records, the PAC-12 had 1, the Big 12 had none, and the SEC had none. Does it really matter if someone’s FEI is high if they aren’t any good? Louisville is rated 44th in FEI, but they went 4-7 and finished 12th in the ACC. Wake Forest is rated 39th in FEI but finished 4-5 and 10th in the ACC.

Also, year-to-year FEI rankings are about as useful as looking at how many teams finish a season ranked: they’re not useful at all. Last year, the ACC had just 2 teams finish in the top 45 in FEI. Compared to:

• SEC - 9
• B1G - 8
• Big 12 - 7
• PAC 12 - 5
• American - 7

Looking at year-to-year results instead of overall trends is not useful in determining anything. The ACC is not at the top in any useful data point when you look at the whole picture.

The FEI is supposed to tell you who is good. In other words yes, you can have a good FEI with a losing record. Depends on who you play and how well you play.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

two had a .500 record though. that's 7 of 14.
Sounds like you're trying to prove they played a conference only schedule?

Im not trying to do anything other than prove we’re not the worst unless you cherry pick data.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Over the last decade, among current P5 conferences the ACC has

• The worst bowl W%
• The worst OOC W% by a significant margin
• The worst OOC P5 W% by a significant margin
• The 3rd best record in NY6 games

View attachment 9663

As I said before, the ACC is closer to the AAC than it is the SEC

Also, when you take out the top team from each conference every year, the ACC is by far the worst, and actually has a lower total W% than the AAC


And for those that want to blame the terrible OOC record on the traditional SEC rivalry games, the record against just the B1G, Big 12, and PAC-12 are just as bad


34-54 is good for a 0.386 W%, which is basically identical to the W% when SEC games are included.

I don’t really care about conference strength as a whole. I care about Georgia Tech, and winning the ACC will likely be enough to get into the CFP in any given year. But to say the ACC is just as good as the SEC, or no worse than 2nd or 3rd overall is asinine.

Yeah. Numbers can say anything you want them to. Look at which teams the ACC schools play OOC and those the SEC play. When you have their big boys playing your weaker sister schools the numbers tend to be skewed. Rarely do you see an SEC or B12 big boy pick on someone their own size. LSU isn't afraid to do it, but few others do.

 

[forensicbuzz]

For 2013-2019, SEC teams

Alabama played: VT, WV, Wisc, USC, FSU, Louisville, Duke (7-0) all home games except for the VT game
Arkansas played: Rutgers, Texas Tech, Texas Tech, TCU, TCU, Co. St., Co. St. (3-4)
Auburn played: Wash St., Kansas St., Louisville, Clemson, Clemson, Washington, Oregon (5-2) 2 Losses to Clemson
Florida played: Miami/FSU, FSU, FSU, FSU, Michigan/FSU, Co. St./FSU, Miami/FSU (4-7) Lost every game 2013-2017, won both games in 2018 & 2019
uga played: Clemson/GT, Clemson/GT, GT, UNC/GT, ND/GT, GT, ND/GT (9-3)
Kentucky played: Louisville (2-5)
LSU played: TCU, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Miami, Texas (6-1)
Old Miss played: Texas, FSU, Cal, Texas Tech, Cal (2-3) 2 years with no P5 OOC games
Miss. State played: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Kansas State (1-2) 4 years with no P5 OOC games
Missouri played: Indiana, Indiana, WV, Purdue, Purdue, WV (3-3) 1 year with no P5 OOC games
USCe played: UNC/Clemson, Clemson, UNC/Clemson, Clemson, NC State/Clemson, Clemson, UNC/Clemson (4-6)
Tennessee played: Oregon, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, VT, GT, WV (2-4) 1 year with no P5 OOC games
Texas A&M played: Arizona St., UCLA, UCLA, Clemson, Clemson (2-3) 2 years with no P5 OOC games
Vanderbilt played: Wake Forest, GT, Kansas St., ND, Purdue (2-3) 2 years with no P5 OOC games

So, from this, Florida, Georgia, and USCe actually schedules multiple contending P5 teams consistently.
Tennessee has scheduled top teams, but hasn't done well.
Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Old Miss, Mississippi State, USCe, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt all have losing P5 OCC records (over half the teams in the league)
Alabama never plays a P5 OOC game away from Tuscaloosa or Atlanta.
Old Miss, Miss St., Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt all have multiple years where they don't have a P5 OOC opponent.

There are many additional conclusions to be drawn from this (both positive and negative for the SEC), but I'm done.

 

[augustabuzz]

You do know that Tech tried to get back in and the SEC said no. I think the guy that the stadium is named after tried that and the Bear was a no show.

Bear was a no show when we left. He actively campaigned for Tech to get back in. It's "Ole Miss".

 

[JacketOff]

Yeah. Numbers can say anything you want them to. Look at which teams the ACC schools play OOC and those the SEC play. When you have their big boys playing your weaker sister schools the numbers tend to be skewed. Rarely do you see an SEC or B12 big boy pick on someone their own size. LSU isn't afraid to do it, but few others do.

Since 2015, Alabama has played: Wisconsin, USC, Florida State, Louisville, and Duke

Auburn has played: Clemson x2, Washington, and Oregon

Georgia has played: North Carolina, Notre Dame x2

LSU has played: Syracuse, Wisconsin, BYU, Miami, and Texas

Florida has played: Michigan and Miami

Texas A&M has played: Arizona State, UCLA x2, Clemson x2

Tennessee has played: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, BYU

In the ACC

Clemson has played: Auburn x2, Texas A&M x2

Florida State has played: Ole Miss and Alabama

Miami has played: Nebraska, LSU, Florida

Virginia Tech has played: Ohio State, Tennessee, West Virginia

North Carolina has played: South Carolina x2, Illinois x2, Georgia, Cal x2

NCSU has played: South Carolina and West Virginia (with another game vs. WVU cancelled)

Virginia has played: UCLA, Oregon, Indiana x2

Georgia Tech has played: Vanderbilt and Tennessee

In the Big 12

Oklahoma has played: Tennessee, Ohio State x2, UCLA x2

Texas has played: Notre Dame x2, Cal x2, Maryland x2, USC x2, LSU

Oklahoma State has played: Oregon State

Iowa State hasn’t played any P5 OOC besides Iowa

Im not really seeing a scheduling discrepancy here. Most teams play OOC games against programs of similar stature. Of course not all of them are on the same level, but when games are scheduled 10+ years out it’s hard to know who will be good or not. The fact remains that the ACC has the worst OOC record among P5 conferences, even when games against SEC opponents are not counted.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Bear was a no show when we left. He actively campaigned for Tech to get back in. It's "Ole Miss".

I heard it was the two Mississippi schools and uga that voted to keep us out. Mississippi was payback because Dodd would never play there and uga, well, they're uga.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Since 2015, Alabama has played: Wisconsin, USC, Florida State, Louisville, and Duke

Auburn has played: Clemson x2, Washington, and Oregon

Georgia has played: North Carolina, Notre Dame x2

LSU has played: Syracuse, Wisconsin, BYU, Miami, and Texas

Florida has played: Michigan and Miami

Texas A&M has played: Arizona State, UCLA x2, Clemson x2

Tennessee has played: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, BYU

In the ACC

Clemson has played: Auburn x2, Texas A&M x2

Florida State has played: Ole Miss and Alabama

Miami has played: Nebraska, LSU, Florida

Virginia Tech has played: Ohio State, Tennessee, West Virginia

North Carolina has played: South Carolina x2, Illinois x2, Georgia, Cal x2

NCSU has played: South Carolina and West Virginia (with another game vs. WVU cancelled)

Virginia has played: UCLA, Oregon, Indiana x2

Georgia Tech has played: Vanderbilt and Tennessee

In the Big 12

Oklahoma has played: Tennessee, Ohio State x2, UCLA x2

Texas has played: Notre Dame x2, Cal x2, Maryland x2, USC x2, LSU

Oklahoma State has played: Oregon State

Iowa State hasn’t played any P5 OOC besides Iowa

Im not really seeing a scheduling discrepancy here. Most teams play OOC games against programs of similar stature. Of course not all of them are on the same level, but when games are scheduled 10+ years out it’s hard to know who will be good or not. The fact remains that the ACC has the worst OOC record among P5 conferences, even when games against SEC opponents are not counted.

You should dive a little deeper. There you'll find the discrepancies. Look at who's winning and who's losing and who's not even playing any P5 OOC games. So, yeah, there are discrepancies. Also, look at where the game is played. It's not just about who you play, it also about where the game is played.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Since 2015, Alabama has played: Wisconsin, USC, Florida State, Louisville, and Duke

Auburn has played: Clemson x2, Washington, and Oregon

Georgia has played: North Carolina, Notre Dame x2 + GT every year

LSU has played: Syracuse, Wisconsin, BYU, Miami, and Texas

Florida has played: Michigan and Miami + FSU every year

Texas A&M has played: Arizona State, UCLA x2, Clemson x2

Tennessee has played: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, BYU

In the ACC

Clemson has played: Auburn x2, Texas A&M x2 + USCe every year

Florida State has played: Ole Miss and Alabama

Miami has played: Nebraska, LSU, Florida

Virginia Tech has played: Ohio State, Tennessee, West Virginia

North Carolina has played: South Carolina x2, Illinois x2, Georgia, Cal x2

NCSU has played: South Carolina and West Virginia (with another game vs. WVU cancelled)

Virginia has played: UCLA, Oregon, Indiana x2

Georgia Tech has played: Vanderbilt and Tennessee + uga every year

In the Big 12

Oklahoma has played: Tennessee, Ohio State x2, UCLA x2

Texas has played: Notre Dame x2, Cal x2, Maryland x2, USC x2, LSU

Oklahoma State has played: Oregon State

Iowa State hasn’t played any P5 OOC besides Iowa

Im not really seeing a scheduling discrepancy here. Most teams play OOC games against programs of similar stature. Of course not all of them are on the same level, but when games are scheduled 10+ years out it’s hard to know who will be good or not. The fact remains that the ACC has the worst OOC record among P5 conferences, even when games against SEC opponents are not counted.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I hate our fans. They're the absolute worst.

Edit: This whole thread sucks, from the OP to my last comment.

I think some people missed your intense sarcasm But I liked it. I feel sorry for all the people in the world who don't realize how important GT sports are.

I am bothered by including ND in discussions of the ACC; that was a shotgun wedding which will hopefully be annulled.

 

[JacketOff]

You should dive a little deeper. There you'll find the discrepancies. Look at who's winning and who's losing and who's not even playing any P5 OOC games. So, yeah, there are discrepancies. Also, look at where the game is played. It's not just about who you play, it also about where the game is played.

Yeah, the ACC is losing, and everyone else is winning

 

[forensicbuzz]

Yeah, the ACC is losing, and everyone else is winning

lazy answer.

For instance, everyone in the ACC plays P5 teams OOC every year. Texas A&M, Miss. St., Old Miss, and Vanderbilt (3 of which are bottom feeders in the SEC) didn't even play a P5 OOC game in at least 2 of the last 7 seasons. Tennessee and Missouri have 1 season without a P5 OOC opponent. Easy to bolster your W/L ratio when your weaker teams don't play (so they can't lose).

9 of 14 SEC teams have losing P5 OOC records over the past 7 years, and a 10th is 3-3.

So, 4 of 14 SEC teams have winning OCC P5 records over the past 7 years. Go mighty SEC!

 

[GT_EE78]

Im not trying to do anything other than prove we’re not the worst unless you cherry pick data.

I don't know about cherry picking the data but i did assume the OP meant "this year" when he said "as of right now"
so for this year i preferred a power ranking over W-L record or rankings due to unequal SoS and unequal #games played.
I would have factored out ND if there was an easy way to do that.

 

[Towers214]

Since 2015, Alabama has played: Wisconsin, USC, Florida State, Louisville, and Duke

Auburn has played: Clemson x2, Washington, and Oregon

Georgia has played: North Carolina, Notre Dame x2

LSU has played: Syracuse, Wisconsin, BYU, Miami, and Texas

Florida has played: Michigan and Miami

Texas A&M has played: Arizona State, UCLA x2, Clemson x2

Tennessee has played: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, BYU

In the ACC

Clemson has played: Auburn x2, Texas A&M x2

Florida State has played: Ole Miss and Alabama

Miami has played: Nebraska, LSU, Florida

Virginia Tech has played: Ohio State, Tennessee, West Virginia

North Carolina has played: South Carolina x2, Illinois x2, Georgia, Cal x2

NCSU has played: South Carolina and West Virginia (with another game vs. WVU cancelled)

Virginia has played: UCLA, Oregon, Indiana x2

Georgia Tech has played: Vanderbilt and Tennessee

In the Big 12

Oklahoma has played: Tennessee, Ohio State x2, UCLA x2

Texas has played: Notre Dame x2, Cal x2, Maryland x2, USC x2, LSU

Oklahoma State has played: Oregon State

Iowa State hasn’t played any P5 OOC besides Iowa

Im not really seeing a scheduling discrepancy here. Most teams play OOC games against programs of similar stature. Of course not all of them are on the same level, but when games are scheduled 10+ years out it’s hard to know who will be good or not. The fact remains that the ACC has the worst OOC record among P5 conferences, even when games against SEC opponents are not counted.

What about all the P5 schools (SEC) that cancelled scheduled home and home games with Tech? Those do not show up here. I remember at least a couple SEC schools (Ole Miss?) cancel games with us with the implication being they didn’t want to play the 3O. Would we have won? But it would have potentially impacted the records. This also reinforces the take away that the SEC is highly selective in when and who they schedule /play out of conference to suit their needs.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I don't know about cherry picking the data but i did assume the OP meant "this year" when he said "as of right now"
so for this year i preferred a power ranking over W-L record or rankings due to unequal SoS and unequal #games played.
I would have factored out ND if there was an easy way to do that.

We had a really bad stretch a couple years ago. But looking at 2020 only, we had the most ranked teams, the most in the top third of FEI rankings, the most 6+ win teams, the most in the CFP. Hell, some conferences had a bunch of teams who only played like 4-5 games.