GT over/under 5.5 wins in 2024

[UgaBlows]

Can we cut out the wtf losses but keep the (holy sh!t we freaking won!) wins?

 

[iceeater1969]

Santucci will be a positive for the D but it will require some time. I fully expect improvement, but not what we saw with the O last season. I think mainly just more consistent play all around and stouter front 6 due to greater experience. Biggers and Fortson should be a good tandem at DT. Efford, Tatum, and Lightsey should be an improvement at LB. We have a chance to step up at DE too. I look for moderate improvement there.

I would like to add that the 23 offense really gelled at end of season. THIS was when the OC called plays ( outside slants w down blocking) that the players could execute.

Haynes K, Jamal Haynes and Singleton were studs that we found in 23. The end of year offense would have not happened without them.

In 24 on defense I am hopefull that the Keys emphasis on toughness kicks in early in year for DL.

By mid year, the key is will be are the LB making plays???
if not, the dc cant step up the aggressive any safety blitzing. We need Tatum to be coached up so he can play to his ability. Efford should be bigger this year and the uga kids should be fully recovered from his injuries.

My Gt optimistic hata says that the LB group has a coming out party at Vt.

In 24 its its vital we play very tough and very smart football at the end of year.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I hope that Brent Key’s 2024 team will take that big step forward to leave our past miseries behind us forever. The way to put fans in the seats is to win. Win the games against lesser talent that are supposed to be “gimmes”. Play smartly, with 100% effort, and above the star ratings. Inspire confidence in the fanbase instead of fear and despair, wondering when the collapse will come. No one wants to go backward. Only forward.

Of course this is necessary.

But, not unlike what happened with some schools, churches, and businesses after the Covid year, sometimes attendance never recovers. I’m not predicting that with Tech, just expressing a concern.

I haven’t been back. I’ve intended to. I’ve wanted to. Several times I was sure I was on the way but plans changed. I’m pretty sure I’ll eventually make it.

But…..

The fall off in attendance is, my opinion, a change in habit patterns. Once habit patterns are broken it is hard to recover them. I was a runner for years. I would run five times a week, at least 20 miles a week. One week I stopped for reasons that still aren’t clear to me and I’ve never really gotten back into it.
Our previous coach has done long lasting damage to Tech. It will take a long time to build that back. I’m not “obsessed” with the former guy but his irresponsible behavior was almost criminal and it will be hard to forget that.

 

[Bogey]

Of course this is necessary.

But, not unlike what happened with some schools, churches, and businesses after the Covid year, sometimes attendance never recovers. I’m not predicting that with Tech, just expressing a concern.

I haven’t been back. I’ve intended to. I’ve wanted to. Several times I was sure I was on the way but plans changed. I’m pretty sure I’ll eventually make it.

But…..

The fall off in attendance is, my opinion, a change in habit patterns. Once habit patterns are broken it is hard to recover them. I was a runner for years. I would run five times a week, at least 20 miles a week. One week I stopped for reasons that still aren’t clear to me and I’ve never really gotten back into it.
Our previous coach has done long lasting damage to Tech. It will take a long time to build that back. I’m not “obsessed” with the former guy but his irresponsible behavior was almost criminal and it will be hard to forget that.

I agree Scooter's behavior was maybe not criminal but he certainly placed his best interest above the school's best interest. But I don't think it will take long to right the ship regarding attendance if we can start winning 7-10 games consistently with the huge pot of college football fans living in and near Atlanta. I also believe we have the top 3 guys now in charge of our program to make this happen.

 

[roadkill]

Of course this is necessary.

But, not unlike what happened with some schools, churches, and businesses after the Covid year, sometimes attendance never recovers. I’m not predicting that with Tech, just expressing a concern.

I haven’t been back. I’ve intended to. I’ve wanted to. Several times I was sure I was on the way but plans changed. I’m pretty sure I’ll eventually make it.

But…..

The fall off in attendance is, my opinion, a change in habit patterns. Once habit patterns are broken it is hard to recover them. I was a runner for years. I would run five times a week, at least 20 miles a week. One week I stopped for reasons that still aren’t clear to me and I’ve never really gotten back into it.
Our previous coach has done long lasting damage to Tech. It will take a long time to build that back. I’m not “obsessed” with the former guy but his irresponsible behavior was almost criminal and it will be hard to forget that.

While our attendance has been in slow decline since 2015, it never really recovered from the 2020 Covid attendance hit.

2021 was down 15% from 2019, and we lost another 9% in 2022. However, it’s difficult to separate the impact of the “change in habit patterns” after Covid from the effect of TFG’s 10-28 record during this same period.

On an optimistic note, 2023 was up 6% over 2022, and only down very slightly after factoring out the uga game. The steep attendance declines may be behind us. If Key can put together a series of winning seasons, it's possible we can reverse the trend. Hope to see us go 7-6 again after the bowl game.

 

[NewEnglandTransplant]

FSU win ( in Ireland and yes, you read that upset right, and it is 1050am and I am completely sober!)
GA State win (trick game coming off long trip to and from Ireland-lethargic close win but this game scared me until GSU coach resigned)
at Syracuse win (trick game up there with their new coaching staff)
VMI win (unless 3-0 goes to our heads)
at Louisville win (tough game on the road but going with a win and make up for huge blown lead at MBS in our opener last year)
Duke loss (just a gut feel and there goes our first L as sobriety sets in)
at UNC win but a toss up game, QB is the big question at UNC but lets hope we stomp on Collins defense
Notre Dame loss due to talent and depth but we compete
at Virginia Tech loss (a good Hokie team at home-we lay an egg up there)
Miami win (punch them right in the mouth a few times and their strutting goes quiet)
NCST loss (Thursday night game-we lay an egg in this game)
at UGA loss (compete but talent and home field advantage goes to those Dawgs)

7-5 season and bowl eligible

 

[apatriot1776]

FSU win ( in Ireland and yes, you read that upset right, and it is 1050am and I am completely sober!)
GA State win (trick game coming off long trip to and from Ireland-lethargic close win but this game scared me until GSU coach resigned)
at Syracuse win (trick game up there with their new coaching staff)
VMI win (unless 3-0 goes to our heads)
at Louisville win (tough game on the road but going with a win and make up for huge blown lead at MBS in our opener last year)
Duke loss (just a gut feel and there goes our first L as sobriety sets in)
at UNC win but a toss up game, QB is the big question at UNC but lets hope we stomp on Collins defense
Notre Dame loss due to talent and depth but we compete
at Virginia Tech loss (a good Hokie team at home-we lay an egg up there)
Miami win (punch them right in the mouth a few times and their strutting goes quiet)
NCST loss (Thursday night game-we lay an egg in this game)
at UGA loss (compete but talent and home field advantage goes to those Dawgs)

7-5 season and bowl eligible

I see it as similar but with a win against one of VT/NCST. Would be a disappointing end to the season of course, that's just the reality of a hard schedule. But there's a very realistic path to starting 7-0 or 6-1. We haven't been ranked at any point since 2015 - I see that as a goal this year. Let's let the world know we deserve a seat at the table.

 

[Dman374]

Can somebody who picked under 5.5 explain their rational? I’m curious. I do think our schedule got harder, but leaning towards 6 rather than 5 feels like the safer bet to me.

Duke, GSU, VMI should be wins IMO

UNC loses their pass daddy (who we beat), taking a step back- we keep ours and bring back everyone else. I’m saying win.

This leaves us with 8 other games, all which the pendulum could swing our way. I think we are cleansed of the Collins team that simply games with simply zero chances of winning. Our offense can score on anybody, so if our defense holds just a littttttttle better and gets a turnover or two, we’re in the fight just like the UGA game. Which makes me think 2 more wins can happen after the first 4 I listed.

Full disclosure I picked over, and I think we'll hit the over, but I'll make the under case for S&G. When we start seeing actual post spring portal final roster power rankings I wonder how we'll actually stack up against our opponents. You'll see a theme below on how I could envision us going below the number. Want to start with turnovers. I love Haynes King, but he reminds me of a Brett Farve & Smoking Jay Cuttler style QB. Both of those QB's didn't fear throwing the ball down the field, and I'm glad we have that style of QB, but we also know sometimes those 50/50 balls don't get caught by the team wearing our jersey. I think he has less INT's than last year, but making the case against I'd say it would either stay the same or go down less than we would like to see. Also, a lot of these teams have their own transfer QB that could very well play much better in a new uniform just like ours did last year. Add to the fact the defense could improve and still not be improved enough, or we have the injury bug hit at the worst time at a key position, or worse at the same position, and I think the number of 5.5 is spot on.

Argument Game by Game:
Week 0: Florida State

• We're not going to be favored, I think we'll cover the spread, but I have this as an L. Wouldn't be shocked if we won this game, and I also think getting this W is easier than Notre Dame later in the season.

Week 1: Georgia State

• Was concerned about this game prior to HC leaving for USC. Don't see a Bowling Green 2.0 game anymore and calling this a W.

Week 2: Syracuse

• We're not playing a ranked ACC team on the road. Kyle McCord somehow is way better than expected, defense doesn't take the step, and/or King throws some bad INTs and/or we lose the turnover battle. Again I think we win this game, but could see a way this game could be an L.

Week 3: VMI Win
Week 4: Louisville

• They're very well coached, and I'm interested to see the spread when it comes out. Same notes from Syracuse game but replace name of QB. Also could see Tech being Tech and dropping the Syracuse game and winning this game simply because we'll be playing a ranked ACC team on the road. But for the argument let's say both are losses.

BYE
Week 5: Duke

• We'll have high priority recruits at his game, and I don't think the final score will be close. I personally get Wake Forest game last year vibe, I'll call this a W.
• Argument for getting the L is again their transfer QB is solid, their defense is decent, our defense isn't, we lose turnover battle, a major injury at worst time, or a combination of those things.

Week 6: North Carolina

• We've had their number, and until they beat us I agree with you, but they do have a more talented roster. We probably won't be favored, and they did get a solid transfer QB. The MofBS should never run a program, but he can coach defense. I think Tech will be up for this game, but for argument sake we have a nail biter L.

Week 7: Notre Dame

• They're a good team, I've got this marked as an L.

Week 8: Virginia Tech

• For some reason they've turned the corner and the offseason hype is real, but more importantly we're playing in Blacksburg. Path to L is it's in Blacksburg, and copy paste their defense stepped up/ours didn't/lose turnover battle/key injury at key moment of game. I'd feel more confident if this was at home, but I've got this an an L.

BYE
Week 10: Miami

• They figure out you can actually kneel the ball and end the game when your opponent has no timeouts. Poorly coached, excellent talent, and potentially the best QB money could buy in the conference. Not a shocker to lose, but with the BYE's spaced the way they are, and the priority recruits at the game, wouldn't surprise me to pull an upset. For argument sake I'll mark as an L.

BYE
Week 12: NC State

• BYE's for both teams. They're a good team, and it will be a great game. Will be interested to see how the old Coastal QB plays at NC State, but can totally see dropping this game. I don't like to believe this staff has look ahead games, but if there ever was one, this would be it. I think NC State is very well matched to us, and wouldn't be surprised for an L.

Week 13: Mutts

• Would love nothing more than an early Christmas Present, but we're not on that level yet. Cover, but loss.

Summary if you made it this far: Drop games to Florida State/Louisville on the road/North Carolina finally gets a W/Notre Dame/Virginia Tech in Blacksburg/Miami/NC State/Mutts.
Do I think that will happen? No. Could I see a situation where that happens? Yes.
3 wins Worse Case floor Wins: Georgia State/VMI/Duke.
4 wins Next tier get a win against only Syracuse
5 wins Next tier add the win against only one of NC State/VT/Louisville/North Carolina

 

[Root4GT]

Full disclosure I picked over, and I think we'll hit the over, but I'll make the under case for S&G. When we start seeing actual post spring portal final roster power rankings I wonder how we'll actually stack up against our opponents. You'll see a theme below on how I could envision us going below the number. Want to start with turnovers. I love Haynes King, but he reminds me of a Brett Farve & Smoking Jay Cuttler style QB. Both of those QB's didn't fear throwing the ball down the field, and I'm glad we have that style of QB, but we also know sometimes those 50/50 balls don't get caught by the team wearing our jersey. I think he has less INT's than last year, but making the case against I'd say it would either stay the same or go down less than we would like to see. Also, a lot of these teams have their own transfer QB that could very well play much better in a new uniform just like ours did last year. Add to the fact the defense could improve and still not be improved enough, or we have the injury bug hit at the worst time at a key position, or worse at the same position, and I think the number of 5.5 is spot on.

Argument Game by Game:
Week 0: Florida State

• We're not going to be favored, I think we'll cover the spread, but I have this as an L. Wouldn't be shocked if we won this game, and I also think getting this W is easier than Notre Dame later in the season.

Week 1: Georgia State

• Was concerned about this game prior to HC leaving for USC. Don't see a Bowling Green 2.0 game anymore and calling this a W.

Week 2: Syracuse

• We're not playing a ranked ACC team on the road. Kyle McCord somehow is way better than expected, defense doesn't take the step, and/or King throws some bad INTs and/or we lose the turnover battle. Again I think we win this game, but could see a way this game could be an L.

Week 3: VMI Win
Week 4: Louisville

• They're very well coached, and I'm interested to see the spread when it comes out. Same notes from Syracuse game but replace name of QB. Also could see Tech being Tech and dropping the Syracuse game and winning this game simply because we'll be playing a ranked ACC team on the road. But for the argument let's say both are losses.

BYE
Week 5: Duke

• We'll have high priority recruits at his game, and I don't think the final score will be close. I personally get Wake Forest game last year vibe, I'll call this a W.
• Argument for getting the L is again their transfer QB is solid, their defense is decent, our defense isn't, we lose turnover battle, a major injury at worst time, or a combination of those things.

Week 6: North Carolina

• We've had their number, and until they beat us I agree with you, but they do have a more talented roster. We probably won't be favored, and they did get a solid transfer QB. The MofBS should never run a program, but he can coach defense. I think Tech will be up for this game, but for argument sake we have a nail biter L.

Week 7: Notre Dame

• They're a good team, I've got this marked as an L.

Week 8: Virginia Tech

• For some reason they've turned the corner and the offseason hype is real, but more importantly we're playing in Blacksburg. Path to L is it's in Blacksburg, and copy paste their defense stepped up/ours didn't/lose turnover battle/key injury at key moment of game. I'd feel more confident if this was at home, but I've got this an an L.

BYE
Week 10: Miami

• They figure out you can actually kneel the ball and end the game when your opponent has no timeouts. Poorly coached, excellent talent, and potentially the best QB money could buy in the conference. Not a shocker to lose, but with the BYE's spaced the way they are, and the priority recruits at the game, wouldn't surprise me to pull an upset. For argument sake I'll mark as an L.

BYE
Week 12: NC State

• BYE's for both teams. They're a good team, and it will be a great game. Will be interested to see how the old Coastal QB plays at NC State, but can totally see dropping this game. I don't like to believe this staff has look ahead games, but if there ever was one, this would be it. I think NC State is very well matched to us, and wouldn't be surprised for an L.

Week 13: Mutts

• Would love nothing more than an early Christmas Present, but we're not on that level yet. Cover, but loss.

Summary if you made it this far: Drop games to Florida State/Louisville on the road/North Carolina finally gets a W/Notre Dame/Virginia Tech in Blacksburg/Miami/NC State/Mutts.
Do I think that will happen? No. Could I see a situation where that happens? Yes.
3 wins Worse Case floor Wins: Georgia State/VMI/Duke.
4 wins Next tier get a win against only Syracuse
5 wins Next tier add the win against only one of NC State/VT/Louisville/North Carolina

Good post - analysis is very solid and any of your 3 tires are possible depending on how the defense responds and even more so how injuries impact us. Our depth is not that of the Top Tier college teams and a key injury or two could derail the season.

 

[stinger78]

I just want somebody to explain how the heck you lose half a game...

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

It's an interesting number. My gut says we could go 7-5 this year IF we improve our defense significantly and maintain our offensive output. We would have to run the gamut against winnable opponents (and we never seem to do that) as well as pick up 2-3 upsets along the way to win 7 games.

VMI is a win. If it isn't, we are in real trouble.

Georgia State should be a win, but it's these kinds of games that scare me. With it being a cross town team and our fan bases propensity to not show up for these types of game, this might be the highest attended game of the year in BDS and it might be close to 50% GSU fans in seats.

Syracuse should be a win, but ACC chaos is real.

Duke should be a win, but ACC chaos is real.

VT is a near peer. This game should be a toss up, leaning towards a win.

UNC, based on talent alone, should be a loss, but until they actually beat us, I'll count it as a win.

These are the 6 "easiest games on the schedule, IMO. The next 6 are all games where we could be competitive but we shouldn't be favored to win any of them. We need an upset from at least 1 of these teams, and maybe 2 to beat the 5.5 number, assuming we win the 5 easiest games on our schedule.

Miami, based on talent alone, should be a loss. We've won some big games against them at BDS, and this might be one, but they will also be coming in with a chip on their shoulder after last year. This one leans toward a loss.

NCSU and UL are good teams and well coached. They should be close but lean to losses.

FSU has to reload a lot, but they have some firepower to reload with. Week zero game on a different continent plays in our favor. An FSU with a playoff snub chip on their shoulder does not play in our favor. I see a close game for three quarters before they put it away.

Notre Dame is likely a loss.

uga is likely a loss.

I think we win five but its hard to tell in the age of portal. I know what Tech has but their opponents are a mixed bag except for certain and near certain losses to Notre Dame, FSU, and UGA as well as certain and near certain wins at Georgia State, VMI, Syracuse, and Duke. My own guesses on the rest are that we lose to Miami, UNC, and North Carolina State. Virginia Tech and UL could go either way but perhaps we split them to finish 5 and 7.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Too much pessimism on this thread to read this early in the day.

Tech wins 9 games and barely misses the 12 team playoffs.

 

[stinger78]

Too much pessimism on this thread to read this early in the day.

Tech wins 9 games and barely misses the 12 team playoffs.

You shouldn’t be doing that stuff so early!

 

[MWBATL]

For us to win more than 6 we had better pick up some studs on the D line and LB in the portal. Soon.

Our defense remains our achilles heel.

 

[TampaBuzz]

For us to win more than 6 we had better pick up some studs on the D line and LB in the portal. Soon.

Our defense remains our achilles heel.

Maybe we already have the studs on the roster, but didn't have the coaches to make them shine. I am optimistic that our new batch of coaches will make things better; maybe not fantastic, but better.

 

[MWBATL]

Maybe we already have the studs on the roster, but didn't have the coaches to make them shine. I am optimistic that our new batch of coaches will make things better; maybe not fantastic, but better.

Hope you’re right. Not optimistic myself, but hope you’re more right than me.

 

[Sheboygan]

Hope you’re right. Not optimistic myself, but hope you’re more right than me.

I am predominately an optimistic person. It usually takes a while for things to make me pessimistic. For instance, I remained optimistic about TFG until his 3rd year.............
What the He!! was I thinking ?? But now I am VERY optimistic that Key will find a way. Santucci was a great hire, IMO. Our offense will be even better this year and our defense will be significantly improved with better coaching.

 

[Lil G]

For us to win more than 6 we had better pick up some studs on the D line and LB in the portal. Soon.

Our defense remains our achilles heel.

No reason freshman Lockett and Biggers don’t take a step up. Also new roster shows Sylvain is back after his senior year injury.
Might not be NFL players but they can all be reasons for an improved D line.

At LB young Efford is showing to be the MAN, and uga transfer EJ lightsy could be the lightening to that thunder. I’m relatively optimistic.

Also- unrelated but GT football posted an instagram pic of Jamal Haynes working out and he look MASSIVE. I knew they’d want to bulk him some with his first real off-season at RB but Lordy he looks like a rhino. Hope it doesn’t slow him down

 

[stinger78]

I am predominately an optimistic person. It usually takes a while for things to make me pessimistic. For instance, I remained optimistic about TFG until his 3rd year.............
What the He!! was I thinking ?? But now I am VERY optimistic that Key will find a way. Santucci was a great hire, IMO. Our offense will be even better this year and our defense will be significantly improved with better coaching.

I think the O will be far improved in its second season. King will execute more consistently, and the WRs will be more on the same page with him. Haynes’ return will help as well at RB. The OL should pick up right where they left off. I’m expecting real good things from the O. For the D, I just expect improvement.

 

[Techster]

Just a reminder:

GT finished 4th in the ACC last season.

I don't think we talk about that enough.