GT (+8.0) vs. #10 Virginia Tech

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I don't see an official line, but ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives Virginia Tech an 82.5% chance of winning.

Home game Wednesday 1/9 with the tipoff at 7pm.

With the Hokies ranked #10, it would seem like a very low chance of Georgia Tech winning, but Virginia Tech has played relatively few decent teams. The few that I see inside the top 50-60 in KenPom were tough on them - they lost to a mediocre 7-8 Penn State team and barely beat a 9-5 Purdue team (both on the road). Lets hope their road struggles continue.

Looking at ticket availability, it looks like McCamish is 90%+ sold out.
 
orientalnc

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I am not holding my breath about Wednesday's game. In addition to playing flawlessly on offense, we have to:

Contest every 3-point shot. This will be a tall order because they have four guys who can drain it.
Challenge Blackshear. He is really good, but is prone to foul trouble.
 

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orientalnc said:
I am not holding my breath about Wednesday's game. In addition to playing flawlessly on offense, we have to:

Contest every 3-point shot. This will be a tall order because they have four guys who can drain it.
Challenge Blackshear. He is really good, but is prone to foul trouble.
Click to expand...

Agree. Don't want to be a negative nelly, but I think our best shot is to keep it close and let them start getting nervous about it being close late. On paper they could beat us by 15.
 
slugboy

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I'm seeing about a 12 point spread on Sagarin (http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm) and 10 points from ESPN.

There's a preview for VT for the season at https://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-spt-acc-hokies-mens-basketball-110418-story.html.
Athlon: https://athlonsports.com/college-basketball/virginia-tech-basketball-hokies-prediction-2018-19
Duke Chronicle: https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2018/11/virginia-tech-mens-basketball-2018-19-season-preview

I haven't watched them this year. The write ups seem to indicate really good guard play and inside-out offense (and lots of it). Rebounding is a weakness, and some teams can beat them up in the paint.

It's upperclassmen against underclassmen here.
 
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slugboy said:
I haven't watched them this year. The write ups seem to indicate really good guard play and inside-out offense (and lots of it). Rebounding is a weakness, and some teams can beat them up in the paint.
Click to expand...
They only have one guy over 6-6, but everyone plays like they are 6-6. Blackshear is their inside game. I heard my VT pal say he may be their best big ever. That said, he has been in foul trouble in a number of games this year. I am not sure it hurts them a lot. They run a 4 out offense and try to get penetration in order to kick out to one of their sharpshooting guards, They also like to pull up on a fast break and hit threes.

If they get hot (and they can get get red hot) it can be hard to beat them. They are scrappy on defense, just trying to make you work for shots. They don't seem to get a lot of steals, but their opponents make a ton of turnovers (at least when I was watching).

Stats to note: As a team they hit 45% of their threes and 51% of all FGs. They average 81 points per game. You cannot let Alexander-Walker run loose because his eFG% is 66%. That is just unreal. They only have six guys with a lot of minutes. One of those is Ty Outlaw who comes off the bench firing away from deep. He hits 50% of his threes. If he isn't already, Robinson will likely be their all time assists leader. Remember Ahmed Hill that we recruited? He is probably their 5th or 6th best player.

I don't think I have seen a real weak spot on their team. They are better shooting from outside, but they don't mind penetrating if you don't protect inside. And Blackshear is a good big.
 
Connell62

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#Livebythe3Diebythe3

Let's play our zone (mixing it up between the 2-3 & 1-3-1) and hope that they have an off-shooting night. If we have a good crowd and get an energy boost, I could see this one coming down to the wire. We are capable of beating them with the way that play D. If I am not mistaken, we have held every team we have played this year under their per game scoring average. Maybe with Gardner Webb being the exception.

It will be a tough one though as VT is very well coached and they do not usually beat themselves. We need to make a concerted effort to get it down low to Big James and AD. Those two should be able to eat in this game, however, I suspect that Buzz will have his guys doubling our big men any time they touch it. Our Bigs must make good decisions when passing it out of the double team, but our guards are gonna have to make some 3's and cut to the basket when the opportunity arises.
 

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With Clarke out for the year (suspension, not injury this time), they are really thin up front. If Banks stays out of foul trouble and has a consistently focused game (no lapses where he looks completely lost for minutes at a time), he should be able to keep Blackshear busy. That means Moses / AD / Evan will have to cover a stretch four out to the 3 point arc when they are in.
It is a long shot, but if we rebound well, don't turn the ball over and get good scoring games from Jose, Devoe and one other starter we have a chance to pull the upset.
 
ESPNjacket

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Kenpom's model shows VPI by 8. That is likely +/- 1 of the line when it opens.

VPI is first in the country with an effective FG% of 60.9%. :woot: No team has finished a season with an eFG% over 60 in the last 10 years (I didn't look past then).

They are actually a good offensive rebounding team, 63rd in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (one of the many examples where looking at totals rather than percentages is deceiving). They are a better rebounding team than GT on offense and defense from a percentage perspective.

They are like Gardner-Webb with talent. This is not a favorable match-up. We will have to play our best game of the year to keep it close and have a chance.
 
GTrob21

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We can win, but it will take everything going right and some of our players have truly great games.

VT is a team we aspire to be.
 

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bwelbo said:
The few that I see inside the top 50-60 in KenPom were tough on them - they lost to a mediocre 7-8 Penn State team and barely beat a 9-5 Purdue team (both on the road).
Click to expand...

Don't look now but we got smoked by a Northwestern team that is worse than both Penn State and Purdue, and beaten by a Gardner-Webb team that just got beaten by the Figthin' Camels of Campbell College. Not to mention Uga......
 
Peacone36

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We have a front line that can get Blackshear in foul trouble

Ahmed Hill has a tendency to disappear in some games

If those two things happen we have a shot. NAW is the problem. The kid is a lottery pick. If this wasnt the year of the Zion he could be ACC POTY
 
orientalnc

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Peacone36 said:
We have a front line that can get Blackshear in foul trouble

Ahmed Hill has a tendency to disappear in some games

If those two things happen we have a shot. NAW is the problem. The kid is a lottery pick. If this wasnt the year of the Zion he could be ACC POTY
Click to expand...
I watched VT a couple of times and their guards will dig on our bigs. If we cannot make them pay with inside out threes, Blackshear will be OK. They are really active on D.
 
Peacone36

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orientalnc said:
I watched VT a couple of times and their guards will dig on our bigs. If we cannot make them pay with inside out threes, Blackshear will be OK. They are really active on D.
Click to expand...

I agree with that. However, where Blackshear gets into trouble is on his own offensive misses. I think Banks can give him trouble and then get that board. Kerry has a tendency to pick up a cheap foul or two in those situations 94 feet from the hoop.
 
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