I hate to keep harping on this, but on a dry field we have an even chance to win this one. Here's a quick comparison:
Dry Field Wet Field
Dry Field: Total Offense (Average) = 428 Total Offense (Average) = 439 (w/o UT) Diff = 179
Wet Field: Total Offense (Average) = 303. Total Offense (Average) = 303 (w/o Clemson Diff = 99
I left out the outliers (UT = 655, Clemson = 230) on the second comparison, but the story is the same. If you look at 2016, it's the same story; we had trouble in the muck in Dublin and did ok otherwise, despite coming up on the short end as often.
As Thoreau said, sometimes circumstantial evidence is very strong, like when you find a fish in the milk. Our problem this year has been that we've been in a monsoon in three crucial games. (Btw, this explains the crowds others have commented on at Miami and UVA.) I know, I know: there are other factors affecting this and the wet affects both teams and you could use other comparisons. But the story is the same. We can do well on a wet field if things aren't getting worse as the game goes on; we won after the drizzle stopped at VT last year. But, overall, if it's pouring rain, we have more trouble on both sides of the ball. I invite others to make comparisons to other years, but I bet the story doesn't change.
