General News about Key and his Staff
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Oldgoldandwhite
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In Middle and South Georgia, if you know anyone, they’re a dog fan. I used to know all 8 Tech fans in our county.-1 for knowing so many dwags, otherwise, good commentary.
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So, you're on the Fire Faulkner bandwagon early? I am willing to let him at least get one short sleeve hoody before I take shots at him.These FEI numbers, they're produced by a coach and his players. How good were the personnel he had to work with?
That's one of my reasons for using OFEI. Did the coach make the most out of what he had to work with? Let's take GT for example. We recruited in the 40-60's for the majority of CPJ's tenure. Yet our OFEIs were regularly in the top 20-30's with multiple years in the teens and top 10. I think a deeper dive into Faulkner's OFEI is to look at the recruiting classes for the schools versus where they ended up in OFEI.
The same thing applies for why we look at OFEI/DFEI for HFC candidates. Is that coach punching above his recruiting weight? At a school like GT that doesn't sign top 10-top 20 classes regularly, a coach that can develop and maximize talent is paramount.
Also, they're determined by strength of schedule in some way, right? So, a team in a lower division is not going to score as high as one in an upper division, even if they have the same offensive output - is that right? For instance, if Arkansas and Arkansas State put up the same numbers, are they going to have the same OFEI? Are we really comparing apples to apples here?
Yes, SOS is a deciding factor. But if you do a deeper dive into the numbers, Faulkner's teams were still middle of the pack to lower end for his conference. You're never going to get an "apples to apples" comparison, but the way FEI is calculated, it's the best metric to "normalize" team disparities available right now and why it's often used.
Let's look at Southern Miss's 2019 schedule a bit. They played 2 SEC teams.
Miss State had a DFEI of 61 that year, and Southern Miss put up 15 points, 344 total yards off of 53 total offensive snaps. (BTW, Miss State had an OFEI of 46 that year).
Mississippi State 38-15 Southern Mississippi (Sep 7, 2019) Game Stats - ESPN
Complete team stats and game leaders for the Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles NCAAF game from September 7, 2019 on ESPN.www.espn.com
Against Alabama, which had a stout defensive FEI of 11 in 2019, they did not fare quite as well. 'Bama played other schools outside of P5 that year and they all fared as well as USM did against 'Bama...so that's just what 'Bama does against teams far less talented than them.
Now you take a look at what a similar school did this year, schools with a coaching candidate we looked at. GA Southern, under Bryan Ellis, for example played Nebraska (DFEI of 85) and put up 45 points and over 600 yards of offense off of 86 offensive snaps. GA Southern was on of the top offenses in the Sun Belt...and that conference included Coastal Carolina, App State who all had top 45 OFEIs.
Georgia Southern Eagles 2024 Regular Season NCAAF Schedule - ESPN
ESPN has the full 2024 Georgia Southern Eagles Regular Season NCAAF schedule. Includes game times, TV listings and ticket information for all Eagles games.
You can do a deep dive with Tulane and Fritz's offense and see the same pattern: An offense that punches above their recruiting weight and had one of the best offenses in their conference as well as in the country.
OFEI is far from perfect, and it's not the end all be all...however, it's probably the most comprehensive analysis that tries to "even the playing" field in terms of statistical analysis.
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stech81
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I'm not as smart as most on here ( but I drink lots of beer and still has lots of hair to be in my 70's)
I don't know about OFE or FEI or any of these things you talk about. I still use the old way did we win and do teams hate to play us.
I don't know about OFE or FEI or any of these things you talk about. I still use the old way did we win and do teams hate to play us.
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We’ve had two hires so far on offense. I’ll try to collect my thoughts here.
I really like the “does the other team hate to play us?” metric. I liked it with our defense under Chan and our offense under Johnson.
I also like the “did he get the other coach fired instead of saving the other coach’s job?” metric. Chan saved a lot of other coaches’ careers with a well-timed loss here and there. So did Collins, way too often. Johnson got other coaches fired. I prefer the latter.
- I’ve seen a couple of posts refer to them as young coaches. Buster Faulkner started as a graduate assistant in 2006. Geep Wade was coaching at Mars Hill back in 2003. That’s 17 years for one of them, and 20 years for the other. That’s halfway through a long coaching career.
- There are some stereotypes that can describe a hire—you can steal a known great coach from another school—that’s what USC and then Texas did with Tashard Choice. Sometimes, that’s a promotion from a position coach to a coordinator or head coach. That’s something that we would do from a smaller school (and people would complain that they didn’t have P5 experience). You can take a coach who has tripped and fallen and give them a chance to rehabilitate their career, and that’s what some of us wanted. You can promote one of your position coaches, which we discussed about Weinke and a lot of people were dreading. Or, you can hire somebody that another team was thinking about promoting—and that’s what we did with Buster Faulkner.
- Because they’re a little unknown, these are higher-risk hires. In the NFL, you had the low risk Jeff Fisher hire that would get you 8 wins and in the good years would get you a few more (that’s 6-7 wins in college). So, the question here is whether Key is just hiring “3*” coaches, or if he’s hiring diamonds in the rough. We’ll see.
- Both coaches are kind of unknowns. I don’t think we’ll see an air raid team, but I don’t know what Faulkner will want to do with our players. Based on MTSU, Faulkner does seem to fit his scheme to his players, and we have a QB, so I think we’ll sling it until we get a back that earns a lot of carries.
- We’ll have Pyron and Gibson (I think we have one more year of Gibson). We need a third QB, so I think we’re looking in the portal.
- I would have liked Ellis from GaSo, and a couple of other coaches. The word was that Key was calling coaches he knew. I think he was looking for referrals, like “this is one of the smarter WR coaches I know”. Again, we’ll see how this works out.
- We talked about some AppState hires. Somehow, the school plays good football, but their coaches move on to other places and don’t look so good. It seems like the school is a bigger part to their success than the coaches.
I really like the “does the other team hate to play us?” metric. I liked it with our defense under Chan and our offense under Johnson.
I also like the “did he get the other coach fired instead of saving the other coach’s job?” metric. Chan saved a lot of other coaches’ careers with a well-timed loss here and there. So did Collins, way too often. Johnson got other coaches fired. I prefer the latter.
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bobongo
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That's still only 5 out of 25. Since I would imagine there are just as much offense at the lower levels as P-5, these are not like comparisons. There's no allowance for the division they're playing in.
I understand the usefulness of OFEI, just not when comparing coaches from different levels. It's not a fair comparison.
MWBATL
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My goodness. For a bunch of fans, there are some amongst us who act like they think they know better than the professionals in their field as to who to hire. I submit you patiently wait to see actual results on the field (longer than 3 series of the opening game, if you please) before pulling out your artillery about how bad Coach X Y or Z is.
Randy Carson
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So, I figured I would watch a bunch of game film on YouTube once the new OC was named...but what do I watch if Buster Faulkner was the Quality Control guy and not the OC?
And instead of Buckeyes or Pawprints on their helmets, will our guys get QC Approved stickers?
And instead of Buckeyes or Pawprints on their helmets, will our guys get QC Approved stickers?
bobongo
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Thanks for these numbers. Part of what I'm basing my optimism on is the three-year period Buster spent working with Todd Monken.
Seems being an analyst is a way to sit back and take it all in, like a QB who goes to the bench for a few series to observe.
We'll see what happens...
You doing a mighty-fine job tryna wrangle these boys (n gals) back onto the sane side of the sideline.
The #get-bak! coaching staff is always lookin' for volunteers....
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Just cleaned up this thread a bit. Some collateral damage may have occurred.
@JacketOff & @Techster please take any further heated debates to DMs please.
@JacketOff & @Techster please take any further heated debates to DMs please.
stinger 1957
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My feeling is pay what we need to pay, take care of your coaches and staff and if we have some left over hold onto it for increases as needed in the future. We turn GT FB around, maybe we will also have more $ to pay for those deserving as we go fwd. Key and company successful we will definitely be paying more to keep the success going.
bobongo
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Seems the current Batt/Key regime is looking at the whole picture, now and in the future. Makes me even more confident Tech is finally in good hands and spending money wisely, for a change.
DiffusedAcorn
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A lot of dudes on here are complaining that we have more money available for assistants but aren't spending it, but I'd argue that it's not such a bad thing to be a bit frugal given our financial situation. Just 'cus you have the ability to spend money doesn't mean you should, particularly if the item (coach) you want doesn't cost too much.
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Has there been any info on his contract? Why are we assuming Faulkner is a cheap hire? He may be, but it also may be that we are paying him well.
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To be completely honest, this was not the hire I was expecting, and I am also going to take a wait and see approach to it. That being said, judging an OC on year 1 is iffy at best. We probably won't know until 2024 just how good he is or isn't.
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It’s like comparing recruiting ratings. Just about everyone coaching at Miami is going to have high-ranked classes. Same at FSU. The question is how much better you are than the other guy who coached before you?
It’s also a team sport. It’s not one guy making the offense efficient. I see a coach leave AppState and AppState stays the same and the coach’s new school stays the same. Heupel goes from UCF to Tennessee and Tennessee rockets up. What we need is an OFEIAR (OFEI Against Replacement). That’s tough to do, though
I’m looking for an identity in game #1. We may make mistakes, but I want to see some coaching brainpower at work.
Even if we’re losing, I should be able to see the coaches building something.
Towaliga
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Chip Long says hi.
It doesn't change the point. Long may have been a markedly better OC next year after the team had a year in his system under their belt. I simply trust that whatever Key saw at practices and during games that led to a lack of confidence in Long is well founded.