General News about Key and his Staff

[gt02]

My buddy is a dwag fan. He says dwag fans are pissed because Faulkner was supposed to be the next OC after Monken leaves.

If they're mad then it's a good hire. Can't wait to see how we look next season

I thought thats what was said about Dell McGee

 

[Novajacket]

One thing that appears clear to me is that CBK is not going to do anything just to be splashy and win over the know it all posters. From the subtext of comments on CGC, there were decisions made to win the press conference, like getting a high star transfer over developing our current players. The staffing changes and non changes show me that he doesn’t think the problem is what we are teaching it’s how it has been taught. That was the first thing he changed. By bringing in CBF he wants to build on what we have done not tear down and start over. I agree and feel this is the best way to make sure we progress. The same thing is happening with defensive staff, there was clear progress and we are not making a change just to make a change.

 

[bobongo]

And this is the problem with OFEI. Compensation for SOS is a trick. If you compare a “lower level” team to a “higher level” team, how can you penalize the lower level team for playing lower level talent? Unless you also compensate for the lower level talent on both teams? At which point compensation is almost a moot point. . .

I think these numbers are absolutely useless when comparing coaches.

You have to go all the way down to #22 before you get to a team not in the P-5, and then all the way down to #46 before you get to the next one. If you're a coach at Arkansas State, Southern Miss, or MTSU, you stand very little chance of cracking the top 50 just by virtue of that factor alone.

 

[Techster]

A few things/questions:

These FEI numbers, they're produced by a coach and his players. How good were the personnel he had to work with?

Also, they're determined by strength of schedule in some way, right? So, a team in a lower division is not going to score as high as one in an upper division, even if they have the same offensive output - is that right? For instance, if Arkansas and Arkansas State put up the same numbers, are they going to have the same OFEI? Are we really comparing apples to apples here?

And in addition, just sayin' but he's had three years working with Monken after these numbers were turned in and presumably learned a thing or two.

And lastly, hopefully the reason Key didn't interview anybody is because he had his man all the way from the git-go.

I'd like to hear your perspective on these issues. Pardon my dumb questions/comments.

These FEI numbers, they're produced by a coach and his players. How good were the personnel he had to work with?

That's one of my reasons for using OFEI. Did the coach make the most out of what he had to work with? Let's take GT for example. We recruited in the 40-60's for the majority of CPJ's tenure. Yet our OFEIs were regularly in the top 20-30's with multiple years in the teens and top 10. I think a deeper dive into Faulkner's OFEI is to look at the recruiting classes for the schools versus where they ended up in OFEI.

The same thing applies for why we look at OFEI/DFEI for HFC candidates. Is that coach punching above his recruiting weight? At a school like GT that doesn't sign top 10-top 20 classes regularly, a coach that can develop and maximize talent is paramount.

Also, they're determined by strength of schedule in some way, right? So, a team in a lower division is not going to score as high as one in an upper division, even if they have the same offensive output - is that right? For instance, if Arkansas and Arkansas State put up the same numbers, are they going to have the same OFEI? Are we really comparing apples to apples here?

Yes, SOS is a deciding factor. But if you do a deeper dive into the numbers, Faulkner's teams were still middle of the pack to lower end for his conference. You're never going to get an "apples to apples" comparison, but the way FEI is calculated, it's the best metric to "normalize" team disparities available right now and why it's often used.

Let's look at Southern Miss's 2019 schedule a bit. They played 2 SEC teams.

Miss State had a DFEI of 61 that year, and Southern Miss put up 15 points, 344 total yards off of 53 total offensive snaps. (BTW, Miss State had an OFEI of 46 that year).

Southern Mississippi 15-38 Mississippi State (Sep 7, 2019) Game Stats - ESPN

Complete team stats and game leaders for the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAAF game from September 7, 2019 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

Against Alabama, which had a stout defensive FEI of 11 in 2019, they did not fare quite as well. 'Bama played other schools outside of P5 that year and they all fared as well as USM did against 'Bama...so that's just what 'Bama does against teams far less talented than them.

Now you take a look at what a similar school did this year, schools with a coaching candidate we looked at. GA Southern, under Bryan Ellis, for example played Nebraska (DFEI of 85) and put up 45 points and over 600 yards of offense off of 86 offensive snaps. GA Southern was on of the top offenses in the Sun Belt...and that conference included Coastal Carolina, App State who all had top 45 OFEIs.

Georgia Southern Eagles 2023 Regular Season NCAAF Schedule - ESPN

ESPN has the full 2023 Georgia Southern Eagles Regular Season NCAAF schedule. Includes game times, TV listings and ticket information for all Eagles games.

www.espn.com

You can do a deep dive with Tulane and Fritz's offense and see the same pattern: An offense that punches above their recruiting weight and had one of the best offenses in their conference as well as in the country.

OFEI is far from perfect, and it's not the end all be all...however, it's probably the most comprehensive analysis that tries to "even the playing" field in terms of statistical analysis.

 

[ibeattetris]

A few things/questions:

These FEI numbers, they're produced by a coach and his players. How good were the personnel he had to work with?

Also, they're determined by strength of schedule in some way, right? So, a team in a lower division is not going to score as high as one in an upper division, even if they have the same offensive output - is that right? For instance, if Arkansas and Arkansas State put up the same numbers, are they going to have the same OFEI? Are we really comparing apples to apples here?

FEI includes the non adjusted rating as well, it isn't hidden. Also, there isn't much you can do when comparing teams that have similar numbers with weaker SOS. You have to really out perform you SOS to be ranked high (a good example is UTSA this year who has a SOS in the 70's but still top 25 in adjusted FEI.

Here is the consolidated OFEI across the stops as OC. I included the previous two seasons of each school to provide context. While SOS and roster strength tell a story, across multiple years the trends should show where the team was performing. For those that don't care about the SOS adjusted number, the ODE column is the FEI ranking before SOS.

Year

Rk

Team

OFEI

ODE

Rk

OPD

Rk

OAY

Rk

OPP

Rk

OTD

Rk

OVD

Rk

OFD

Rk

OBD

Rk

OTO

Rk

2010​

114​

Middle Tennessee

-1.19​

-0.71​

100​

1.61​

99​

0.359​

102​

5.14​

87​

0.201​

94​

0.262​

97​

0.611​

103​

0.161​

99​

0.215​

118​

2011​

112​

Middle Tennessee

-1.07​

-0.7​

104​

1.51​

102​

0.426​

74​

5.11​

88​

0.196​

96​

0.291​

86​

0.669​

75​

0.122​

68​

0.176​

106​

2012​

61​

Middle Tennessee

0​

0.28​

39​

2.49​

35​

0.543​

24​

6.1​

39​

0.297​

48​

0.405​

42​

0.766​

20​

0.072​

23​

0.117​

50​

2013​

81​

Middle Tennessee

-0.36​

-0.01​

61​

2.02​

72​

0.46​

61​

5.54​

60​

0.26​

68​

0.336​

69​

0.756​

23​

0.076​

15​

0.122​

58​

2014​

78​

Middle Tennessee

-0.3​

-0.04​

62​

2.12​

62​

0.443​

70​

5.57​

63​

0.279​

57​

0.368​

54​

0.684​

63​

0.14​

94​

0.14​

93​

2015​

61​

Middle Tennessee

-0.04​

-0.02​

58​

2.18​

59​

0.464​

54​

6.04​

41​

0.279​

51​

0.34​

62​

0.687​

67​

0.088​

27​

0.17​

119​

2014​

67​

Arkansas State

-0.1​

0.26​

40​

2.43​

39​

0.475​

52​

6.1​

35​

0.333​

29​

0.396​

39​

0.679​

70​

0.113​

59​

0.107​

38​

2015​

80​

Arkansas State

-0.25​

0.05​

51​

2.39​

44​

0.468​

53​

5.8​

49​

0.308​

39​

0.404​

38​

0.628​

105​

0.141​

92​

0.128​

82​

2016​

100​

Arkansas State

-0.54​

-0.28​

89​

1.85​

90​

0.395​

106​

5.37​

95​

0.238​

86​

0.35​

69​

0.629​

109​

0.168​

119​

0.084​

13​

2017​

92​

Arkansas State

-0.36​

0.19​

45​

2.41​

38​

0.523​

23​

6.09​

33​

0.311​

35​

0.411​

31​

0.755​

18​

0.079​

14​

0.152​

117​

2018​

82​

Arkansas State

-0.18​

0.14​

56​

2.15​

70​

0.503​

40​

6.14​

30​

0.275​

62​

0.366​

61​

0.718​

44​

0.085​

22​

0.085​

18​

2017​

102​

Southern Mississippi

-0.54​

-0.04​

62​

2.1​

67​

0.443​

76​

5.72​

53​

0.257​

72​

0.347​

66​

0.667​

84​

0.132​

88​

0.118​

72​

2018​

120​

Southern Mississippi

-0.92​

-0.68​

115​

1.73​

104​

0.39​

110​

4.8​

116​

0.192​

113​

0.275​

106​

0.675​

82​

0.175​

120​

0.167​

124​

2019​

97​

Southern Mississippi

-0.38​

-0.09​

78​

2.06​

77​

0.458​

73​

6.09​

39​

0.255​

79​

0.38​

58​

0.693​

73​

0.146​

108​

0.153​

113​

 

[ibeattetris]

I think these numbers are absolutely useless when comparing coaches.

You have to go all the way down to #22 before you get to a team not in the P-5, and then all the way down to #46 before you get to the next one. If you're a coach at Arkansas State, Southern Miss, or MTSU, you stand very little chance of cracking the top 50 just by virtue of that factor alone.

Every year is different. Last year, BYU (4), Western Kentucky (9), Air Force (12), Coastal Carolina (17), UTSA (24) were all in the top 25.

The fact that this year is P5 heavy is just indicative of the P5 being strong this year.

 

[okiemon]

How dare Tech fans want a Coordinator to be hired as a Coordinator

Right on. If I had been alive then, I would have been furious that they hired Bobby Dodd. He had never been a head coach!

 

[Kennethshannon20]

Right on. If I had been alive then, I would have been furious that they hired Bobby Dodd. He had never been a head coach!

Lol you are kidding right? You mean the same Dodd that was an assistant coach for over a decade for Tech?!

 

[ramblin_man]

Bryce Koon on his live show stated that Faulkner is already at GT now (if I heard him correctly). Any one know if he is already on campus and working the recruiting trail or transfer portal? If so I wonder when he got to GT? If he has been on campus a day or two GT did a pretty good job of keeping it quite perhaps until they intentionally leaked it today. Maybe post background check and board voting or some kind of formality. Koon’s guest aka some uga message board or video blogger stated that he thought Faulkner was Gia’s OC in waiting if Modken left for a HC or NFL position. In fact he went as far as to say that he wouldn’t be surprised even now if Faulkner was the first guy Smart called if/when Modken leaves. Pretty high praise but not sure how accurate the comment would be because I imagine they’ll have a ton of interest in the OC vacancy should Todd leave. Anyone know if Buster is already at GT?

 

[EddieK]

You may be correct. Perhaps the formal offer was just made and time will tell how quickly he assumes the role as OC.

Looks like he's already on the road recruiting for us

 

[ramblin_man]

Looks like he's already on the road recruiting for us

Yes I just saw the same picture and thought that was Buster on the far right.

 

[okiemon]

Lol you are kidding right? You mean the same Dodd that was an assistant coach for over a decade for Tech?!

Yes, I was kidding (kinda sorta). But I do think someone can be successful at a job he’s not done before.

 

[ramblin_man]

True to form for Key, much like delaying his own press conference, for him to hire Buster and “go to work” instead of a flashy press conference and exclusive interviews. Go get’em men!

 

[Tech Lawyer]

I have been listening to the Dawgs media podcasts rave about Faulkner for (3) years. They won't be happy about this, especially if Monken leaves. I also like Jim Cheney in the analyst role. Cheney is smart. Faulkner should be a great recruiter (Parkview), and this seems especially true given what Stetson Bennett said about their relationship. I think we stole him- he didn't want to wait on the Dawgs or he was led to believe Mike Bobo is the next man up. Smart hire by Coach Key. I just hope Buster and Chris can work together effectively.

 

[MidtownJacket]

HEY! He used 2 F's
@MidtownJacket

 

[GTBandit22]

Looks like he's already on the road recruiting for us

Changed his shirt, now to change his Twitter pic

 

[JacketOff]

I’m getting excited about next year. We won’t be world beaters, but I’m expecting us to look very competent and competitive in every game on the schedule for the first time in a while. Come out and punch Brohm and Louisville in the mouth in the Benz on Labor Day weekend. Beat the hell out of whatever FCS team we play the next week, and roll into The Grove 2-0 and looking for revenge. Lane and Ole Miss turned out to be way more pedestrian than we made them look this year. I’d be willing to be that doesn’t happen again.

 

[ibeattetris]

More data. As before the bolded is the years are the active years, and previous years included for context. PPP is points per play, just raw stats. PPD is points per drive rank. ESPN FPI Eff is the efficiency ranking for the offense, and epa/play rank is the expected points added per play ranking

Year	Team	PPP Rank	PPD Rank	ESPN FPI EFF	EPA/Play Rank
2010​	Middle Tennessee	72​	99​	112​	85​
2011​	Middle Tennessee	101​	102​	108​	106​
2012​	Middle Tennessee	54​	35​	64​	67​
2013​	Middle Tennessee	57​	72​	79​	79​
2014​	Middle Tennessee	66​	62​	78​	47​
2015​	Middle Tennessee	54​	59​	51​	33​
2014​	Arkansas State	27​	39​	76​	56​
2015​	Arkansas State	20​	44​	78​	60​
2016​	Arkansas State	66​	90​	109​	98​
2017​	Arkansas State	37​	38​	83​	58​
2018​	Arkansas State	73​	70​	71​	53​
2017​	Southern Mississippi	63​	67​	96​	50​
2018​	Southern Mississippi	102​	104​	120​	114​
2019​	Southern Mississippi	76​	77​	98​	78​

 

[Jacket4Life]

I actually like both hires so far. Plus why might have enough money leftover to hire Choice back now

 

[Techster]

More data. As before the bolded is the years are the active years, and previous years included for context. PPP is points per play, just raw stats. PPD is points per drive rank. ESPN FPI Eff is the efficiency ranking for the offense, and epa/play rank is the expected points added per play ranking

Year	Team	PPP Rank	PPD Rank	ESPN FPI EFF	EPA/Play Rank
2010​	Middle Tennessee	72​	99​	112​	85​
2011​	Middle Tennessee	101​	102​	108​	106​
2012​	Middle Tennessee	54​	35​	64​	67​
2013​	Middle Tennessee	57​	72​	79​	79​
2014​	Middle Tennessee	66​	62​	78​	47​
2015​	Middle Tennessee	54​	59​	51​	33​
2014​	Arkansas State	27​	39​	76​	56​
2015​	Arkansas State	20​	44​	78​	60​
2016​	Arkansas State	66​	90​	109​	98​
2017​	Arkansas State	37​	38​	83​	58​
2018​	Arkansas State	73​	70​	71​	53​
2017​	Southern Mississippi	63​	67​	96​	50​
2018​	Southern Mississippi	102​	104​	120​	114​
2019​	Southern Mississippi	76​	77​	98​	78​

Good stuff. PPP and PPD Faulkner had a clear improvement at MTSU from previous seasons. ASU his offense was step backward from previous OCs. USM was a year over year improvement, but a step back from 2 years previous.

I don't the have motivation to look into it, but it would be interesting to see how the recruiting rankings for the rosters during his time at each stop correlates to various metrics, and how his offenses compare to the cohort of schools in the respective conferences of the schools he OC'd at.

This will certainly be a very interesting experiment over the next few years. I can't imagine Faulkner will command a huge OC salary (was making around $200K at UGA per reports), and he wasn't in high demand (GT was really the only school attached to him this offseason) so that makes me think it's possible Key will invest heavily in recruiting support and support staff (offensive/defensive analysts, consultants, etc.).