General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics

[bobongo]

I wouldn’t predict that necessarily (because you never know), but I agree with your sentiment. House of cards is exactly what our federal governments finances are. There is not enough money in the entire world to cover our unfunded liabilities.

I'm far from a "conservative" in the current vernacular, but although I consider myself a socialist to a degree (vigorous but highly regulated capitalism with a large safety net) I believe that whatever we fund we ought to pay for, which makes me a fiscal conservative, at least in my book. Deficit spending is good only when the economy needs a boost. But to have a one trillion dollar deficit in an at least decent economy is grossly irresponsible. If times are so good, the responsible thing to do is run a surplus and pay down the Debt. That's another broken promise of Trump. I remember him saying he would balance the budget in three years. Three years later, the deficit in One Trillion Dollars. "Nobody cares about deficits", **** Cheney said. That's true until it isn't, true until you run astonishing deficits and oops, suddenly need stimulus spending. And what are you going to run then, a Two Trillion Dollar deficit? House. Of. Cards.

Another grossly irresponsible thing Trump is doing is jawboning the FED to cut interest rates further. They're so low now that they've reached the point of alarming the market, reminding it that the FED is dangerously close to running out of bullets. And he doesn't realize that further cuts will actually at this point just make things worse. You'd think he would have gotten the hint after the last emergency rate cut, but since he thinks he knows more than the generals, doctors, economists and everybody else, he didn't. Another reason I'm out of the stock market.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I'm far from a "conservative" in the current vernacular, but although I consider myself a socialist to a degree (vigorous but highly regulated capitalism with a large safety net) I believe that whatever we fund we ought to pay for, which makes me a fiscal conservative, at least in my book. Deficit spending is good only when the economy needs a boost. But to have a one trillion dollar deficit in an at least decent economy is grossly irresponsible. If times are so good, the responsible thing to do is run a surplus and pay down the Debt. That's another broken promise of Trump. I remember him saying he would balance the budget in three years. Three years later, the deficit in One Trillion Dollars. "Nobody cares about deficits", **** Cheney said. That's true until it isn't, true until you run astonishing deficits and oops, suddenly need stimulus spending. And what are you going to run then, a Two Trillion Dollar deficit? House. Of. Cards.

Another grossly irresponsible thing Trump is doing is jawboning the FED to cut interest rates further. They're so low now that they've reached the point of alarming the market, reminding it that the FED is dangerously close to running out of bullets. And he doesn't realize that further cuts will actually at this point just make things worse. You'd think he would have gotten the hint after the last emergency rate cut, but since he thinks he knows more than the generals, doctors, economists and everybody else, he didn't. Another reason I'm out of the stock market.

Yep. I am for safety nets too. TEO TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS you ask - this year we’ll have our first. It’s playing out the same way as the last recession - the government will try to take care of everyone. Santa Claus is in the House.

And yes, you’re right (IMHO) on interest rates too. They need to be at like 5% to encourage savings and investment - not for everybody (government included) to keep spending money we don’t have on things we can’t afford.

 

[LibertyTurns]

@bobongo Agree, the Maniac has been an immense disappointment when it comes to fiscal responsibility. Huge deficits, gross runaway spending, etc. Not good.

FED are masters at predicting the past, concocting ineffective or late actions, etc. The “jawboning” on the other hand is juvenile, in-Presidential, etc. He should just fire the incompetents. He is right though that the US should not be disadvantaged, abused by currency manipulation to prop up other failing economies. The disparity in rates makes US goods & services less competitive.

 

[CuseJacket]

Futures are currently pointing toward +9% when the market opens tomorrow.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Futures are currently pointing toward +9% when the market opens tomorrow.

Absolutely crazy. Stock Market Gone Wild!

 

[CuseJacket]

Absolutely crazy. Stock Market Gone Wild!

I'll caveat this... I saw it on Bloomberg TV. I am 99.9999% confident that the ticker said Futures. That said, I thought to myself that +9% is very similar to Friday's market performance (and I saw a separate ticker for Friday's performance, so it had to be different). As a result I've been trying to verify what I saw and everything I see online points to -1%, but it appears some of those sites haven't updated since yesterday (e.g., IBD).

Would be interested to know if anyone has a good line on this. I've only really paid attention to Futures over the last few weeks, which is more than the rest of my life combined.

 

[bobongo]

I'll caveat this... I saw it on Bloomberg TV. I am 99.9999% confident that the ticker said Futures. That said, I thought to myself that +9% is very similar to Friday's market performance (and I saw a separate ticker for Friday's performance, so it had to be different). As a result I've been trying to verify what I saw and everything I see online points to -1%, but it appears some of those sites haven't updated since yesterday (e.g., IBD).

Would be interested to know if anyone has a good line on this. I've only really paid attention to Futures over the last few weeks, which is more than the rest of my life combined.

Well, whether it's a future for Monday (and if it's that thing at the bottom of the screen, it's for Friday), the market going either up or down 9% portends badly. Markets this volatile always trend south.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I'll caveat this... I saw it on Bloomberg TV. I am 99.9999% confident that the ticker said Futures. That said, I thought to myself that +9% is very similar to Friday's market performance (and I saw a separate ticker for Friday's performance, so it had to be different). As a result I've been trying to verify what I saw and everything I see online points to -1%, but it appears some of those sites haven't updated since yesterday (e.g., IBD).

Would be interested to know if anyone has a good line on this. I've only really paid attention to Futures over the last few weeks, which is more than the rest of my life combined.

Not positive but I think the pre-market opens at 4am. We’re about 6 hrs from the Asia markets opening. Sometimes those or European markets are a signal to duck.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Well, whether it's a future for Monday (and if it's that thing at the bottom of the screen, it's for Friday), the market going either up or down 9% portends badly. Markets this volatile always trend south.

On a monthly basis:

41% of the time the most volatile months are up an average of 5.2%
59% of the time they’re down an average of 5.0%.

Not sure I’d call that always.

 

[CuseJacket]

I mean, it said DOW FUT, so I assumed it meant for tomorrow. They then changed the ticker to show Friday's performance, so I interpreted those to mean two different data points. And I saw both numbers 3x.

I'm inclined to not believe it now. The Bloomberg website isn't showing any data yet. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

@LibertyTurns - IBD has been showing futures each night prior to next day's open, so my expectation is that we can see what's going on by 9pm tonight.

 

[bobongo]

On a monthly basis:

41% of the time the most volatile months are up an average of 5.2%
59% of the time they’re down an average of 5.0%.

Not sure I’d call that always.

But I think markets as volatile as this one is always trend south. Up and down 5% - 10% from one day to the next isn't good. I think markets this volatile would always fall in the 59% of the time down category.

 

[LibertyTurns]

But I think markets as volatile as this one is always trend south. Up and down 5% - 10% from one day to the next isn't good. I think markets this volatile would always fall in the 59% of the time down category.

This case is in rarefied air. 3 closest cases suggest you’re correct, however, this is the first one in what I’m term the modern era with rapid information & misinformation, program trading, etc. I believe there’s going to be a lot of analysis come out of the coronavirus crash with a lot better analytics. Most of the computer programs developed by the quants are driving a lot of the activity now & the jury’s out on their performance.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com...e-markets-are-high-frequency-traders-to-blame

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I mean, it said DOW FUT, so I assumed it meant for tomorrow. They then changed the ticker to show Friday's performance, so I interpreted those to mean two different data points. And I saw both numbers 3x.

I'm inclined to not believe it now. The Bloomberg website isn't showing any data yet. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

@LibertyTurns - IBD has been showing futures each night prior to next day's open, so my expectation is that we can see what's going on by 9pm tonight.

Yea I don’t think it was correct, but I’m still laughing about a 4:15pm headline from Friday: “Dow soars 2,000 points after President declares national emergency due to global pandemic.”

 

[bobongo]

Yea I don’t think it was correct, but I’m still laughing about a 4:15pm headline from Friday: “Dow soars 2,000 points after President declares national emergency due to global pandemic.”

That headline is for the ages.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Given the shutting down of complete states (Ohio closing restaurants and bars) on top of everything else, I think it will be a miracle if tomorrow is a good day in the stock market. More states will surely be following suit.

 

[LibertyTurns]

FED went to 0%

Good move.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

FED went to 0%

Good move.

LOL. What a mess.

 

[Techster]

FED went to 0%

Good move.

Interesting. That's pretty much their last card to play.

Now what happens when virus tests are more widely available and the infection curve balloons? What cards do they have left to play?

 

[bobongo]

Interesting. That's pretty much their last card to play.

Now what happens when virus tests are more widely available and the infection curve balloons? What cards do they have left to play?

None left - they've shot their wad. Pushing on a string. Well, it should please Trump - until he finds it didn't work and needs somebody to blame.

 

[Techster]

Official Fed release:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm