General Investing and Economics Discussion - No Politics

Techster

Techster

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bobongo said:
After it opens, if the market declines another 2%, to 7% down, the market will then be suspended for 15 minutes.
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Has the market tripped the circuit 3 times in a week ever? I seriously can't remember...of course, I only started paying attention since the 90's when I had skin in the game.
 
bobongo

bobongo

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Techster said:
Has the market tripped the circuit 3 times in a week ever? I seriously can't remember...of course, I only started paying attention since the 90's when I had skin in the game.
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I would bet not, and I would bet it trips it again shortly after 9:30 tomorrow morning.
 

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bobongo said:
I would bet not, and I would bet it trips it again shortly after 9:30 tomorrow morning.
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If you had to make a 50/50 guess for where you think we end up in the next few weeks, what do you think it is? What about like a 1 in 4 chance? I was thinking a coin flip could be 15,000 and 1 in 4 12,000.
 
bobongo

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bwelbo said:
If you had to make a 50/50 guess for where you think we end up in the next few weeks, what do you think it is? What about like a 1 in 4 chance? I was thinking a coin flip could be 15,000 and 1 in 4 12,000.
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15,000 on the Dow? In a few weeks? You're scaring even me, now.
Man, but who knows? The high point was 29,500, and I think it was overvalued by at least half. It's still overvalued by probably 30%. The market always overshoots, so I would guess it will end up somewhere south of 15,000 before this bear goes back to sleep. Maybe even 12,000. But in a few weeks? I dunno.

I'll guess 50/50 it goes to 18,000, and 1 in 4 it goes to 15,000 just in the next few weeks. But in any case, we're staring into the abyss. The FED cutting to zero will help grease the slide.
 
LibertyTurns

LibertyTurns

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bobongo said:
"Crazy Uncle Joe" might stutter a little, but he's extremely knowledgeable on the issues and he's very intelligent.
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What he “knows” is crazier than his groping. Perhaps he ends up President or Senator or Mayor in that election three years from now. He might even be able to sign the act admitting Hawaii into the Union or was it Chicago that is the next state? You know the place where that dude came from he worked with. The articulate & bright & clean one that was a nice looking guy.
 

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Techster said:
Lots of yuck...pay attention to the numbers on Q2 (super yuck)

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Yea. When you look at how much we’re shutting down, I have been saying that for weeks - I don’t see anyway possible we’re NOT in a recession. The “good news” is that hopefully we’re through the virus in 1-2 months of this, and then we can start rebuilding the economy.

Just gotta hope the financial damage from it doesn’t then create its own larger issues.
 

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armeck said:
So with the rates going to near zero - is this a good time to refinance a house?
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Yes! The volatility in the bond market has been really high in the last week, so rates haven’t really come down that much. But they should. The Fed has dropped rates 1.5% over the last month. So you should see mortgage rates drop roughly the same amount by maybe the end of this week? Mine is 3.75%, so I need to get to around 2.5-75% to save $200/month to offset the refinance fees in less than a year (my personal bar for refinancing). There are websites that let you do mortgage estimates. If you go to those, plug-in your loan size and theoretical interest rates, you should be able to pretty easily compare that to what you’re paying today and determine if/when it is worth it.

Also, you can roll the fees back into the loan and refinance with nothing out of pocket. Refinancing is basically free money in your pocket every month.

Since the Fed has gone to 0%, over the next months is likely to be the lowest possible interest rates for mortgages we will ever see in a long long time.
 

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Foreign stock markets aren’t too bad today. I see a -9%, but a lot of -1% to -3%.

industrial production in China fell by 13.3% in January and February. That has never happened before.

Chinese retail sales fell by 20.5% in the same two months, and fixed asset investment down by 24.5%.
 
Techster

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Techster said:
IF you have the nerves to capitalize on the downward market, buy TVIX and set a trailing stop loss. It was up over 100% last week until the last positive minute run on Friday that pared it's appreciation to just over 65% end of trading day. Trailing stop loss is key here...you need capitalize on profits and as this is not a long term investment...because once the market heads up, TVIX goes the opposite way.

I've always played it against TQQQ...which is opposite to TVIX. TQQQ is an extraordinary play if the market is going up, which it has been until the past two weeks. Like TVIX, set a trailing stop loss for when the market heads down.

If your trading platform allows you to set up trailing stop losses, or you know how to make use of API's, this is a really good "side" play to capture profit on the way down and the way up.

*BTW, I am not a professional (I just play one on messageboards), so take this suggestion as information only...I can't have anyone's wife (or husband) coming after me because one of you put your kids college fund on the line. :)
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Under $40 a few weeks ago. You're welcome.

Screenshot_20200316-092743_Chrome.jpg
 
bobongo

bobongo

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Techster said:
Lots of yuck...pay attention to the numbers on Q2 (super yuck)

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Goldman, JP Morgan...these guys are always telling us what we already know after it becomes obvious.
Techster said:
Under $40 a few weeks ago. You're welcome.

View attachment 7982
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Great idea to play this but set up a stop loss. TVIX can be very lucrative in some situations, but it is always VERY dangerous.
 

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Techster said:
Under $40 a few weeks ago. You're welcome.

View attachment 7982
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/claps furiously

Glad you did well there. That one is not for me personally, but it did make very logical sense. I'm glad it worked out well for you. Hopefully then you can take all that money and plow it back into the regular market once it finds its bottom somewhere and make even more on the way back up.

I don't have the cojones to trade that, I'm just sitting on cash to put back into the regular index funds down the road. But that's just me.
 
bobongo

bobongo

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bwelbo said:
/claps furiously

Glad you did well there. That one is not for me personally, but it did make very logical sense. I'm glad it worked out well for you. Hopefully then you can take all that money and plow it back into the regular market once it finds its bottom somewhere and make even more on the way back up.

I don't have the cojones to trade that, I'm just sitting on cash to put back into the regular index funds down the road. But that's just me.
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"Fortune favors the bold".

So does disaster, but that's another story... No, I wish I'd known how to do that stop loss stuff. Little downside and the upside is skyrockets.
 
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