Game Thread - dook, 1/8/2020
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lv20gt
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My thought going into Duke are as follows.
First off Wendell More is out with a fractured hand. So that's a break in our favor, no pun intended. I think it opens a path to a win even if it is fairly narrow.
Otherwise Duke has really impressed me this year. They don't really seem to have an exploitable weakness either inside or at the guards with the only real thing I can think that teams could take advantage of is a relative lack of depth because there is certainly drop off after their starting 5/6. Looking at somewhat the individual match ups.
Center - Carey vs Banks. Obviously Carey is the superior player. We need Banks to contain him enough to hopefully get the edge elsewhere. Carey actually hasn't been putting up monster nights. Only 1 30+ point game and only 3 games of scoring over 20 points (bit arbitrary as he has 4 20 point exact games). The thing is that he is very efficient. He's averaging nearly 18.4 points but only playing 23 mpg. Oddly enough, I think one of the keys is that we have to make him play 30+ minutes to have a chance. he scores 23 in 34 minutes of play that bodes pretty well. We just can't have him getting 23 in 23 minutes or 35 in 35.
PG - Jones vs Alvarado is probably my most anticipated match up. IMO while Carey is the most talented player for Duke Jones is the engine that makes them run so smoothly. I think an absolute must for us to have a chance is Jose being able to prevent Jones from being able to effectively get the 4th/5th/6th options going. If Duke has to rely on Carey and Stanley to just out talent our guys then we have a better chance. If those two do their thing and Jones can get guys like Hurt, Delaurier, Baker, O'Connell to have solid contributions then I don't see how we are going to win. I'd go so far as to say the single biggest factor for us is Jose's defense on Jones.
SG - Stanley vs Devoe. This is one area where I think we could get the advantage. Devoe needs to have a bounce back game, and Stanley has been hit or miss. Stanley has several games where it appears he doesn't contribute a whole lot, but he also doesn't have many games where he puts up a lot of shots and misses a lot. He only has 2 games this year where he has shot the ball 7 or more times and made 40% or less. Seems like he is able to be taken out of the game to some degree with good defense.
PF - Wright vs Hurt is an interesting match up. Similar to Stanley it appears Hurt rarely forces the issue having shot 50% or better in 8 straight games. I think this comes back to the match ups at center and PG. If Moses can pretty much just stick with Stanley then I doubt he has much of an impact. If Moses feels the need to try and help stop penetration by Jones or come help Banks cover Carey then I could see Hurt having a big night. On the other hand this might be our best match up on the other end with Moses being able to work down low against Hurt.
SF - With the loss of Moore this opens up an interesting position. Usher should have opportunities against no matter who Duke puts out there. IF we get good Usher this could lead to some opportunities, by I also worry about him pushing the issue and Duke's team defense turning him over.
Overall I don't have much hope that we win this game. IMO we'd have a complete game on both sides of the court and have everyone play up to their potential to have a chance. If they do I think we can hang, but in light of us not having done that the entire year, or really coming close, I think this will be a loss. The one big hope is that Duke is relies very heavily on young players. Stanley, Hurt, and Carey are all Fr and Jones is a soph. Any team that young has a chance to just not play well on any given night. But there is a reason their average margin of victory against ACC teams is 29 points. We could play well and lose by 15. We need to both have a great day and for them to have an off day.
First off Wendell More is out with a fractured hand. So that's a break in our favor, no pun intended. I think it opens a path to a win even if it is fairly narrow.
Otherwise Duke has really impressed me this year. They don't really seem to have an exploitable weakness either inside or at the guards with the only real thing I can think that teams could take advantage of is a relative lack of depth because there is certainly drop off after their starting 5/6. Looking at somewhat the individual match ups.
Center - Carey vs Banks. Obviously Carey is the superior player. We need Banks to contain him enough to hopefully get the edge elsewhere. Carey actually hasn't been putting up monster nights. Only 1 30+ point game and only 3 games of scoring over 20 points (bit arbitrary as he has 4 20 point exact games). The thing is that he is very efficient. He's averaging nearly 18.4 points but only playing 23 mpg. Oddly enough, I think one of the keys is that we have to make him play 30+ minutes to have a chance. he scores 23 in 34 minutes of play that bodes pretty well. We just can't have him getting 23 in 23 minutes or 35 in 35.
PG - Jones vs Alvarado is probably my most anticipated match up. IMO while Carey is the most talented player for Duke Jones is the engine that makes them run so smoothly. I think an absolute must for us to have a chance is Jose being able to prevent Jones from being able to effectively get the 4th/5th/6th options going. If Duke has to rely on Carey and Stanley to just out talent our guys then we have a better chance. If those two do their thing and Jones can get guys like Hurt, Delaurier, Baker, O'Connell to have solid contributions then I don't see how we are going to win. I'd go so far as to say the single biggest factor for us is Jose's defense on Jones.
SG - Stanley vs Devoe. This is one area where I think we could get the advantage. Devoe needs to have a bounce back game, and Stanley has been hit or miss. Stanley has several games where it appears he doesn't contribute a whole lot, but he also doesn't have many games where he puts up a lot of shots and misses a lot. He only has 2 games this year where he has shot the ball 7 or more times and made 40% or less. Seems like he is able to be taken out of the game to some degree with good defense.
PF - Wright vs Hurt is an interesting match up. Similar to Stanley it appears Hurt rarely forces the issue having shot 50% or better in 8 straight games. I think this comes back to the match ups at center and PG. If Moses can pretty much just stick with Stanley then I doubt he has much of an impact. If Moses feels the need to try and help stop penetration by Jones or come help Banks cover Carey then I could see Hurt having a big night. On the other hand this might be our best match up on the other end with Moses being able to work down low against Hurt.
SF - With the loss of Moore this opens up an interesting position. Usher should have opportunities against no matter who Duke puts out there. IF we get good Usher this could lead to some opportunities, by I also worry about him pushing the issue and Duke's team defense turning him over.
Overall I don't have much hope that we win this game. IMO we'd have a complete game on both sides of the court and have everyone play up to their potential to have a chance. If they do I think we can hang, but in light of us not having done that the entire year, or really coming close, I think this will be a loss. The one big hope is that Duke is relies very heavily on young players. Stanley, Hurt, and Carey are all Fr and Jones is a soph. Any team that young has a chance to just not play well on any given night. But there is a reason their average margin of victory against ACC teams is 29 points. We could play well and lose by 15. We need to both have a great day and for them to have an off day.
YlJacket
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FWIW I would switch the focus for Jones versus Alvarado. We had our offensive success against UNC because Jose was able to drive the paint and make decisions there - lob/kick/shot. He even was able to penetrate, not like what he saw - go back out and penetrate again. Unheard of for play against a top half of the ACC team. For us to replicate that offense to any level we are going to have to figure out how to get Duke to switch Jones off of Jose and let him work against someone else - anyone else - as I don't think he can get in the paint against Jones.
But overall I agree with you there is not much chance. They are not going to have a half like UNC did. I just want to see us compete and for Bubba and Cole to continue their resurrection.
But overall I agree with you there is not much chance. They are not going to have a half like UNC did. I just want to see us compete and for Bubba and Cole to continue their resurrection.
MiracleWhips
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Lol I’m actually watching the interview now
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I do think there is a lot of goodness coming our way based on the tough defensive choice coaches have to make against us with MDevoe and JAlvarado. If you take Jose with your best defender you know Mike is going to go off. If you take Jose, then you know the rest of the team will with Jose leading the way.
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alagold
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sell-out----Wow, just like the old days--the good-uns anyway
gte447f
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These days, a sell out is not usually good for the home team. Hopefully, this game will be different.
gtpi
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whens the last time we played a complete game at home. from my catbird seat we tend to shoot poorly and make many unforced to's at home. we sure could use a YUGE dose of confidence.
TheWhiteKenyan
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The student section will be rocking tomorrow for the first time all season which will help if Puke fans show up in force. I’m bummed I’ll likely be missing my first game as a student in my 4.5 years here due to a mandatory senior design meeting that goes till 8:30ish.
Gold1
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TV Ted probably
TheSilasSonRising
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Duck Fuke.
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As @CuseJacket posted in the recruiting threads, monster list of recruits visiting tonight.
Milwaukee
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He was courtside in Athens last night, alongside Quavo.