Game 4 Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest (-7)

[ibeattetris]

Clock-wise I think so, but play calling-wise I don’t think so. If you can score fast, do it. The more plays you take on your drive the more chance you end up in a third down you fail to convert.

Yep, this is why yards per play is strongly correlated to winning. Consistent 3.4 yards per play will get you first downs until you commit a penalty.

 

[MonroeJacket]

I’m not well educated on the ins and outs of sports betting. How do these folks set these lines? Are certain “experts” assigned to each team to do research, etc?

 

[colton]

I’m not well educated on the ins and outs of sports betting. How do these folks set these lines? Are certain “experts” assigned to each team to do research, etc?

Basically, they have a computer simulate the game 1 Buzzillion times, and set the opening line + O/U at whatever the most common outcome was. The point is for it to be right at the spot where it could go either way, so bookies still wind up with half of their money. However, if people bet like crazy on 1 side, there has to be something someone knows that the computer doesn't, so the lines shift.

 

[slugboy]

I’m not well educated on the ins and outs of sports betting. How do these folks set these lines? Are certain “experts” assigned to each team to do research, etc?

Not exactly what you asked, but this is a fun read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking?wprov=sfti1

This is for Soccer (shows up as “football” because England gambles like mad), but here’s a former odds setter:

They have statistical models, and they crank away based on what worked for them before

 

[takethepoints]

I watched their game against ODU. If the Wake team that played the first half shows up, Tech wins by (probably) 7 to 14. If the Wake team that played the second half shows up, I think it'll probably go the other way and it might be worse.

The way to beat Wake is to stop the run. Griffis is a good QB, but he hasn't got Hartman's wheels. If you can stop them on the ground, you can cause him trouble despite several big, fast WRs. I don't know what Clawson did to them at half-time, but all of s sudden they started to run. They have several good RBs: Caliborne is a slasher, Carney is a wrecking ball, just like his big brother, and Ellison is a slightly larger Robie Godhigh. If they get rolling Tech will have a very difficult time. Oth, their D is no better then ok; the DL is probably a step faster then Tech's, but that could be the competition.

I'm not surprised that we aren't predicted to win. It's up there and their program has more confidence then ours does. That doesn't mean Tech can't win. If King lights ups a little we could do very well; our WRs a faster then theirs. We'll see.

 

[bke1984]

The way we were running out offense until the 4th quarter it made me wonder if the OC didn't have trust that the OL could hold blocks long enough to try for big plays.
We either ran the ball or were making quick passes. We really were not attempting any long developing plays.

This is called scheming for the players you have . Our O line is not very good, so we do things that makes their lives easier.

You could say we are doing the same thing on defense by playing unaggressive ball, but in today’s day and age I think that just gets you beat.

 

[Southern psu fan]

This game will really tell us how we are going to fair in the ACC. I think we win big. 48-21 type game. I think this team is pissed off and ready to explode.

Exactly what I’m thinking. We’ve played hard and had our chances but give out of gas late and we’ve lost both games to pretty good football teams. Take these 2 losses out on WF!

 

[A Love Supreme]

Wake's defense leads the nation right now with 16 sacks. They are going to put a lot of pressure on King. The O-line has to be ready.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Wake's defense leads the nation right now with 16 sacks. They are going to put a lot of pressure on King. The O-line has to be ready.

Wake may or may not have a great DL, but they have played two FCS schools and Vanderbilt. I am not sold on just how much credit should be given to their sack total based on their competition so far.

 

[Ibeeballin]

This is called scheming for the players you have . Our O line is not very good, so we do things that makes their lives easier.

You could say we are doing the same thing on defense by playing unaggressive ball, but in today’s day and age I think that just gets you beat.

The OLine has given up 3 sacks all season, one of which was a olè by Corey Robinson early vs Louisville and avg 203 rush yds/gm.

That doesn’t fall under the “not good” category

 

[g0lftime]

This game probably tells us more about the state of our program than Ole Miss. We hung pretty well with them for 3 quarters but big play scores skewed the score to some degree. Wake is a team we should be able to go toe to toe with. They are not top 25 in recruiting and we may even rank higher in recruiting. They are well coached and have learned how to win with their system. They usually play above their pay grade.

 

[GTJake]

This game probably tells us more about the state of our program than Ole Miss. We hung pretty well with them for 3 quarters but big play scores skewed the score to some degree. Wake is a team we should be able to go toe to toe with. They are not top 25 in recruiting and we may even rank higher in recruiting. They are well coached and have learned how to win with their system. They usually play above their pay grade.

I agree, and Clawson has them playing with a chip on their shoulder, he came out publically against the FSU rhetoric in the ACC Pre-Season Meetings and he is out to back-up what he said ... We really need this game to get back a little swag of our own !!

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Not exactly what you asked, but this is a fun read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking?wprov=sfti1

This is for Soccer (shows up as “football” because England gambles like mad), but here’s a former odds setter:

They have statistical models, and they crank away based on what worked for them before

This is another great resource if you are interested in how books set openers, move numbers, make a profit, etc. Also, the myth that books strive for 50/50 action is dispelled at the 24:46 mark. I would think my fellow engineers with an interest in numbers would find this interesting: https://podcast.app/chris-bennett-joins-for-a-discussion-e314952849/

 

[boger2337]

Not exactly what you asked, but this is a fun read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking?wprov=sfti1

This is for Soccer (shows up as “football” because England gambles like mad), but here’s a former odds setter:

They have statistical models, and they crank away based on what worked for them before

Also, they place the line where they think they will draw action. There model may show Wake -12, but they place it at 8 with everyone thinking GT should be a touchdown or less dog. This way it encourages bets on both sides. -12 would likely mean all GT bets. They like a balanced sheet, and since there is vig they win when it's balanced. They are in the business of attracting business because a balanced sheet makes money no matter what due to vig.

 

[Buzztheirazz]

Damn. Down to 3.5. Wish I had gotten in earlier.

 

[takethepoints]

Wake is a team we should be able to go toe to toe with. They are not top 25 in recruiting and we may even rank higher in recruiting. They are well coached and have learned how to win with their system. They usually play above their pay grade.

Hmmmmmm. What school does this remind me of? One that had recruiting in the 50s (Wake's is actually a bit worse then that), used a system O, and played "above their pay grade"? Rats! It's on the tip of my tongue!

Now you know why I hope Tech adopts their model. Again.

 

[A Love Supreme]

Wake may or may not have a great DL, but they have played two FCS schools and Vanderbilt. I am not sold on just how much credit should be given to their sack total based on their competition so far.

Well at least they were able to get sacks against an FCS school. We didn't get any against SC State.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Well at least they were able to get sacks against an FCS school. We didn't get any against SC State.

Agreed. Our DL is not very good. That says nothing about how good our OL or their DL are though.

 

[Ibeeballin]

Well at least they were able to get sacks against an FCS school. We didn't get any against SC State.

Hard to get sacks when the ball is in your hands for only a second

 

[yeti92]

Well at least they were able to get sacks against an FCS school. We didn't get any against SC State.

No but we got a sack against Ole Miss who is world's better than anyone they have played.

For comparison:

Louisville's qbs have been sacked 3 times through 3 games.

SC State qbs have been sacked 4 times through 3 games.

Ole Miss qbs have been sacked 5 times through 3 games, 1 by Tech.

Elon qbs have been sacked 12 times through 3 games. 3 were by Wake.

Vandy qbs have been sacked 9 times through 3 games, 2 by Wake.

ODU qbs have been sacked 18 times through 3 games, 10 by Wake.

There is more to getting sacks than just how good your front 7 are. The type of offense the other team runs, the mobility of their qb, how good their O line is at holding blocks all have a huge effect. The teams we've played have better O lines and/or are getting rid of the ball quicker like Sc State. Teams rarely got many sacks against CPJ for the same type of reasons.