FEI Off/Def/SpT Rankings 2018

[Longestday]

Funny thing is the defense did a lot in both the Duke and Pitt loses... not enough to overcome low output from the offense.

 

[ibeattetris]

Funny thing is the defense did a lot in both the Duke and Pitt loses... not enough to overcome low output from the offense.

Yeah it's really hard to blame the defense when the offense kept putting them in bad spots. Duke was well over their average points per play and points per drive for the game, but when you give them the ball on your own 40 multiple times, you can't really blame it on them.

I definitely agree the defense played well enough in the Duke and Pitt games to win.

 

[AE 87]

Funny thing is the defense did a lot in both the Duke and Pitt loses... not enough to overcome low output from the offense.

Yes.

I think the danger for some fans is to turn a reasonable caveat into an excuse. Our D could have done better and is still below average.

That being said, losses to Duke and Pitt are on O. Loss to usf is on D. Loss to CU is on CU.

 

[GT_05]

Yes.

I think the danger for some fans is to turn a reasonable caveat into an excuse. Our D could have done better and is still below average.

That being said, losses to Duke and Pitt are on O. Loss to usf is on D. Loss to CU is on CU.

I would say that the loss to USF is on ST.


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[Deleted member 2897]

I would say that the loss to USF is on ST.


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I was going to type that. USF scored on 5 of 10 possessions. That’s bad, but not horrible IMHO. I think it’s a split loss between defense and special teams. The more the defense holds teams below 30 points the better. The D gave up 35 against USF.

 

[Longestday]

5 of 10 scoring is horrible defense ( bottom 25% 0r worse). Our offense is good and ranked top 20 and scores 5 out of 10 drives. Recalibrate to scoring 30% is average or 3 out of 10 drives. Groh and Roof has ruined what I think good and horrible defenses looks like.

I would say that if GT scored more than a team that scored on 5 of 10 possession that the offense won the day and the defense barely hung on.

 

[Longestday]

UNC scored on 4 out of 10 possessions or 2.1 points per drive and is about average for GT versus ACC in 2017. ACC average is about 1.8 points per drive defense in 2018. This is not good defense... good enough to win but not good defense. A good defense only allows 14 points on 10 possessions and a average allows 18-21 points and a bad allows 25-28 points and a horrible allows 31-35 points.

GT should have one of the lowest DPPD with the limited possession from the offense.

 

[iceeater1969]

Is the head coach responsible for the line ups?

Usf kick off teams - we had 5 freshman verses Olympic sprinter . 2 times in a row "he goes all the way" .

ForcDuke who has given our o fits for years o l coach decided to switch out the ol.
With o t marshall injured, we bench Lee and Bryan and start r freshman, soph, walk on r jr. First play wrong call by rg and qb is injured. Sure the young guys played good against the 0- 6 Louisville who has never played against our offense, but it was a bust to rush them in as starters.

Goof ups by coaches and players happen on other teams too.

But thats water under the bridge.
Glass half full=
Ol is full of guys w experience who are fighting for playing time.

Special teams seems to be staying in lanes.
Let's not have weird line ups next 2 games.

 

[Longestday]

Correction lowest score per game given limited possessions (not lowest DPPD).

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Correction lowest score per game given limited possessions (not lowest DPPD).

I knew what you meant.

If average defenses give up 28 points per game (just making up a number for purposes of illustration), then Georgia Tech defense should be about 24 points per game if we give up average points per drive...its pretty common to have 10 possessions versus 14 for most teams.

 

[ibeattetris]

5 of 10 scoring isn't bad if you consistently are holding teams to field goals. 15 points in 10 drives is better than average. The problem with us is we just give up too many TDs. Field goals have been few and far between. We currently give up a TD on 33% of our drives which is good for 97th best.

 

[alentrekin]

5 of 10 scoring isn't bad if you consistently are holding teams to field goals. 15 points in 10 drives is better than average. The problem with us is we just give up too many TDs. Field goals have been few and far between. We currently give up a TD on 33% of our drives which is good for 97th best.

Thanks for professoring this. It seems some folks still anchor on ppg, which is, I guess, not surprising since our O makes the final score look like a game with more possessions.

Also, folks may have gotten used to bad defense -- e.g. "getting some stops" or "enough to win" is good defense. I think this D is a great fit for the institute. I look forward to (jinx) the bowl to see how it looks with even more prep time.

 

[Boaty1]

I was going to type that. USF scored on 5 of 10 possessions. That’s bad, but not horrible IMHO. I think it’s a split loss between defense and special teams. The more the defense holds teams below 30 points the better. The D gave up 35 against USF.

Yes. And they are a bad offense.

 

[Cam]

Updated October 13th, 2018 FEI Rankings:
Overall: (F/+ Combined Ratings in Parentheses)
2. Georgia (3)
3. Clemson (2)
21. Duke (36)
34. Miami (28)
39. Georgia Tech (48)
45. Pittsburgh (54)
49. Virginia (49)
76. North Carolina (89)
79. Virginia Tech (80)
86. South Florida (76)
122. Bowling Green (127)
127. Louisville (114)

Offense:
4. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech (Army at 10)
17. Clemson
33. Pittsburgh
55. Duke
72. South Florida
77. Virginia Tech
81. Virginia
89. Miami
91. North Carolina
108. Bowling Green
112. Louisville

Defense:
2. Clemson
11. Miami (pretty good performance for us last week)
24. Georgia
30. Virginia
38. Duke
86. Pittsburgh
91. South Florida
92. Georgia Tech
99. North Carolina
103. Virginia Tech (how the mighty have fallen)
124. Louisville
125. Bowling Green

Special Teams:
4. Georgia
15. Pittsburgh
21. North Carolina
32. Louisville
52. Virginia
53. Duke
57. Virginia Tech
59. Clemson
81. Miami (a couple of ST turnovers hurts)
95. Georgia Tech
103. South Florida
115. Bowling Green

Usually near the end of the year here we start to see these rankings get more and more accurate. If this is any real indication, we should beat Virginia this Saturday.

 

[Cam]

Also, just for kicks, it's worth pointing out that our offensive line is rated pretty highly across the board for rushing. For rushing we are 5th in line yards per carry, 3rd in standard down yards, 83rd in passing down yards, 4th in opportunity rate, 52nd in power success rate, 5th in stuff rate. For passing we are 123rd in sack rate, 111th in standard downs sack rate, and 123rd in passing downs sack rate, but these are inflated by our low passing attempts. Definitions below.

Line Yards per Carry: For 2018, we are experimenting with a new definition for college line yardage based on film study and generalization. Instead of the ALY figure FO used for the NFL, this one is tighter: the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards (instead of 0-4) and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10). Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. (Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages.)
Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).
Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry: The same unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs.
Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.
Power Success Rate: percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.
Stuff Rate: percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.

Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for all non-garbage time pass attempts.
Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.
Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.

 

[ibeattetris]

Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner.

Interestingly, I think this is not accurate in our offense.

I also wonder how rocket toss is considered in this, as generally the line is only responsible for partially getting in the way.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Updated October 13th, 2018 FEI Rankings:
Overall: (F/+ Combined Ratings in Parentheses)

39. Georgia Tech (48)

49. Virginia (49)

Usually near the end of the year here we start to see these rankings get more and more accurate. If this is any real indication, we should beat Virginia this Saturday.

Mmmmm, I mean the difference between the combined rankings is negligible...and 39-49 is not that big a gap. At home with that gap, yea maybe we should win. But we're facing weakness vs weakness and strength vs strength. Our below average defense against their below average offense and our above average offense against their above average defense. Our rushing yards the last 3 years averages barely 200 yards against Virginia. That's Clemson defense territory. In 2016, we had 220 yards rushing...and even at that, 2 of the plays went for 130. So the other 29 rushes ALL GAME went for 92 yards TOTAL. This will be a war - we have to find a set of plays that can generate success where the last few years we haven't. And if we have any brain farts like more than 1 turnover or we give up long kick returns, its going to be hard to win.

Still, after starting 1-3, you gotta be happy to be playing for your 6th win in the last 7 games.

 

[alagold]

Is the head coach responsible for the line ups?

Usf kick off teams - we had 5 freshman verses Olympic sprinter . 2 times in a row "he goes all the way" .

ForcDuke who has given our o fits for years o l coach decided to switch out the ol.
With o t marshall injured, we bench Lee and Bryan and start r freshman, soph, walk on r jr. First play wrong call by rg and qb is injured. Sure the young guys played good against the 0- 6 Louisville who has never played against our offense, but it was a bust to rush them in as starters.

Goof ups by coaches and players happen on other teams too.

But thats water under the bridge.
Glass half full=
Ol is full of guys w experience who are fighting for playing time.

Special teams seems to be staying in lanes.
Let's not have weird line ups next 2 games.

Ice,
Another blunder is putting a TRUE FR returning kicks--the risk/reward % is TERRIBLY bad. Let Stewart return KOs ,take the knee, and get to 25 EVERY time--no FUMBLE, no penalties, no starting at 8 yd line crap

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Ice,
Another blunder is putting a TRUE FR returning kicks--the risk/reward % is TERRIBLY bad. Let Stewart return KOs ,take the knee, and get to 25 EVERY time--no FUMBLE, no penalties, no starting at 8 yd line crap

Someone should do an analysis to see what percentage of returns start past the 25 yard line, and what our average start is. I'm of the mind due to the reduced risk of injuries and turnovers that you put a guy out there that unless they catch it beyond the 15-18 they fair catch everything.

 

[ibeattetris]

11. Georgia Tech (Army at 10)

What is really interesting about this, Army is ranked 56 in S&P+ whereas GT is 19. This means generally, you would expect Army and GT drives to perform similarly, but on any given play, you expect GT to have more success.

I personally prefer maximizing both of these. It should intuitively make sense. An offense that scores every drive in one play is a better offense than a team that scores every drive in 10 plays (though obviously both would be amazing).