Expansion Talk 2021

[RonJohn]

I think a lot of you are thinking about this backwards. "The ACC needs to get out of the ESPN deal to survive." But ESPN is very happy with the ACC deal. ESPN isn't going to let the ACC dissolve and ruin their sweet 15 more years bargain price media deal. The best outcome for ESPN is for the ACC brand to get better and improve the value of that content. It would not be good for ESPN for the big brands (FSU, Clem, UM) move to the more expensive (to ESPN) SEC media deal and leave them with a weaker ACC product for the next 15 years.
5 years too.

I'm not so sure that ESPN is totally content with the ACC deal. ESPN might be happy to get Clemson, FSU, Miami, and maybe VT into the SEC. Then they could negotiate lower rates for the remaining ACC schools. Don't have any faith that Disney is going to look out for the best interests of the ACC or GT. Disney is going to maximize Disney profit no matter who they help or hurt.

 

[Technut1990]

I think some people have made purely sports arguments, and you have appeared to have ignored them. From a pure sporting standpoint, look at the current ACC and SEC and the potential future ACC and SEC. If the SEC adds Texas and Oklahoma, from a purely sports standpoint, they are much stronger. If the ACC adds WV and UCF, they are slightly stronger from a pure sports standpoint. The gap between the conferences is bigger.

Just from a fan perspective: The SEC is making a bold move. Adding schools like WV and UCF will not match that move. It would be reactionary. It wouldn't make up the original gap. It wouldn't match the increase that the SEC will see. If you are trying to keep up with the Joness, and your neighbor buys a Ferrari, purchasing a Kia won't "keep up". Even purchasing a Mustang or Camaro (WV and UCF) won't keep up. If the ACC were able to add ND and Penn State, that would be on par with the move that the SEC is making. Making additions less than that type are an admission that the ACC is always going to be weaker, and in my opinion is worse than doing nothing.

im not ignoring things, I’m saying that it dosent appear that ND is coming and several months ago when I argued that playoff expansion would prompt ND into joining the ACC everyone roundly disagreed in favor of ND being forcefully independent, now after being a part of constructing that playoff format ND is still in the exact same position, they don’t need us. My argument is that yes you are correct, The ACC only moves WITH The SEC by soliciting ND and a Penn St into the conference but short of that I fail to understand the logic that standing pat helps us keep up. If we are falling behind either way. We better do something rather than stand there.

how WV or UCF actually HURT the conference is lost on me. Adding fan base is the only other option aside from ND and TV money.

to me, saying it hurts the ACC to expand is essentially arguing that to compete or even stay equal to we must do nothing outside adding ND. That is exactly the viewpoint of the academics within the conference, standing pat isn’t a sports answer. If we are slightly stronger by adding WV and UCF how are we weaker ?

 

[RonJohn]

im not ignoring things, I’m saying that it dosent appear that ND is coming and several months ago when I argued that playoff expansion would prompt ND into joining the ACC everyone roundly disagreed in favor of ND being forcefully independent, now after being a part of constructing that playoff format ND is still in the exact same position, they don’t need us. My argument is that yes you are correct, The ACC only moves WITH The SEC by soliciting ND and a Penn St into the conference but short of that I fail to understand the logic that standing pat helps us keep up. If we are falling behind either way. We better do something rather than stand there.

how WV or UCF actually HURT the conference is lost on me. Adding fan base is the only other option aside from ND and TV money.

to me, saying it hurts the ACC to expand is essentially arguing that to compete or even stay equal to we must do nothing outside adding ND. That is exactly the viewpoint of the academics within the conference, standing pat isn’t a sports answer. If we are slightly stronger by adding WV and UCF how are we weaker ?

There are several weaknesses. First, the ACC will be viewed as a me too reactionary. (You got a sports car(Ferrari), Ha, I got a sports car too!!!(Camaro)) Secondly, and more important, reactively adding "some" schools will place limits on what the ACC might be able to do in the future. Suppose the ACC very quickly adds WV and UCF. Then in 2 years the Big10 adds Kansas to get to 15 schools. At that point, which conference would ND possibly consider joining? Would they join the ACC, which is already at 16 and would need to add 1 or 3 other schools to get to an even 18 or 20? (And what 1 or 3 schools would be available then? Tulsa?) Or would they join the Big10 which would be going to 15 and need one additional to get to 16 like the SEC and ACC?

I don't think that expanding is bad. I think that expanding out of desperation is bad. Expanding with whatever school might accept an invitation at the moment is bad. The ACC should only expand if the schools that are added actually increase the revenue and reputation of the conference. You seem to believe that without expanding, the ACC is doomed to fail. I think that if the ACC expands solely because the SEC did, and without real forethought, that it isn't in any better shape. The ACC shouldn't stand still, but they should plan and act deliberately instead of making quick moves.

I said this before in the thread. If the Big10, Pac12, Big12/AAC, and ACC believe that the SEC is moving to take over P5 football, then there are strong moves those conferences could take. Merge or strengthen the Big12/AAC. Form an alliance. Separate the P4(P5-SEC) conferences from the NCAA. Have a "national" CFP to compete with the "regional" SEC championship. If those conferences really believe that the SEC is trying to eliminate them, then don't try to keep up in their game, take the fight directly to them.

 

[bobongo]

im not ignoring things, I’m saying that it dosent appear that ND is coming and several months ago when I argued that playoff expansion would prompt ND into joining the ACC everyone roundly disagreed in favor of ND being forcefully independent, now after being a part of constructing that playoff format ND is still in the exact same position, they don’t need us. My argument is that yes you are correct, The ACC only moves WITH The SEC by soliciting ND and a Penn St into the conference but short of that I fail to understand the logic that standing pat helps us keep up. If we are falling behind either way. We better do something rather than stand there.

how WV or UCF actually HURT the conference is lost on me. Adding fan base is the only other option aside from ND and TV money.

to me, saying it hurts the ACC to expand is essentially arguing that to compete or even stay equal to we must do nothing outside adding ND. That is exactly the viewpoint of the academics within the conference, standing pat isn’t a sports answer. If we are slightly stronger by adding WV and UCF how are we weaker ?

Regarding UCF, they weren't seriously on anyone's radar ten years ago, but forward-thinking folks might be getting the idea by now that a school with 70,000 students smack in the middle of Florida might be on a very strong upward trajectory.

Regarding media markets, the biggest ones aren't always best. We got 'Cuse, Pitt, and BC because of their large media markets but people up there don't care much for college football. West Virginia is a smaller market but they are far bigger college fans and WVA packs them in. And the prospect of regional rivalries is a lot more important from a fan and media aspect than most are giving credit for.

UCF and WVA may not stack up to Texas and OU right now, but down the road...

And like you said, unless ND has a sudden change of heart, who else is there? We could wait at the altar on them to show up but what if they don't? Offer them a final, last chance offer and if they refuse be done with them. We have to be practical.

 

[Coloradojacket]

Regarding UCF, they weren't seriously on anyone's radar ten years ago, but forward-thinking folks might be getting the idea by now that a school with 70,000 students smack in the middle of Florida might be on a very strong upward trajectory.

Regarding media markets, the biggest ones aren't always best. We got 'Cuse, Pitt, and BC because of their large media markets but people up there don't care much for college football. West Virginia is a smaller market but they are far bigger college fans and WVA packs them in. And the prospect of regional rivalries is a lot more important from a fan and media aspect than most are giving credit for.

UCF and WVA may not stack up to Texas and OU right now, but down the road...

And like you said, unless ND has a sudden change of heart, who else is there? We could wait at the altar on them to show up but what if they don't? Offer them a final, last chance offer and if they refuse be done with them. We have to be practical.

So I heard someone saying yesterday that markets are really not in consideration. Ie the Atlanta market. It is more about country wide appeal. If Oklahoma is playing Alabama 95% of the College football world will be watching that game coast to coast. If Georgia Tech is playing Michigan...um not so much. The SEC gets more watches than any other conference and gets more people that aren't even SEC fans.

What really I find interesting is this continued notion that the SEC is going to have all these playoff bound teams. When you add Texas and Oklahoma and go to a 9 game schedule with 1 OOC game with value, I think the SEC winds up like this.

2-6 win teams
Vandy
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Missouri
Miss St.
Ole Miss
Arkansas

6-8 wins
Texas
Auburn
LSU

8-9
Florida

9-12
Bama
UGA
Oklahoma

This is based on current levels of play. Looks to me like you lose bowl spots and chances are you land 2 in the playoffs if it expands. And if they realign the conference that will make an impact as well. UGA might have to play Bama every year.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

In reading all the arguments/conversations I see that we don’t all agree on which is the most important criterion for adding new members to the ACC.

Is it getting into a new region / market? The B1G seems to like this approach because of a large alumni base spread across the country. Hence they add schools like Maryland, Rutgers and now Kansas.

Is it access to new recruiting regions? The B1G supposedly would like more access in other areas of the country, hence their approach of Tech a few years ago.

Is it to add brand prestige? The SEC is till king of this approach.

Is it to add fan bases? The PAC 12 in the past, and in current discussions, seem to like this approach with the added bonus of adding to the appeal of their TV rights and opening up new recruiting areas. But the SEC is still the king of this approach too.

Is it subscribers (whatever that means and however you define it)? I would be willing to bet Notre Dame is the king of this category and why they would like to never join a conference for football. They just need a place to park their Olympic sports.

What is it we need for the ACC? What is it Tech needs? I am persuaded by all I’ve read that the ACC needs to go big with brand prestige or we lose product prestige and therefore money in the long run. If the ACC can’t do that, doing nothing for the short run, though a horrible choice, is better than any other option. The caveat would be if the ACC can work out a scheduling agreement with the SEC or B1G.

If the B1G wants Tech and can make the grant of rights work out, I would be in favor of Tech making that move…if the ACC decides on a path of diminished growth, prestige, money and relevance.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

then prepare to be weaker, you don't get stronger denying the obvious. If we are talking about sports, which I don’t think we are, West Virginia has no less appeal than Duke, Wake, Syracuse or Boston College. If this anti WV stuff is about education then The ACC isn’t going to compete in the big conference thing anyway, better to simply acknowledge that The ACC is an Ivy League and move on

I couldn't care less about academics of the conference. I'm saying WVU brings absolutely nothing to the table except dividing an already small pie with another mouth. It's amazing how some cannot recognize this after previous rounds of expansion and numerous explanations of it. It has nothing to do with W/L records at all. If it did, we'd be going down to UCF before WVU anyway.

 

[jacketup]

I've wanted to move to the B1G for years purely for monetary reasons. If the rumor is true that they would have taken us when they took (or perhaps in place of) U of MD and Rutgers a few years ago, we blew it. Given our leadership at the time that probably happened.

I don't like the ACC, but it's not in a bad place and it should not take knee jerk action at this time. If UNC and _____________ left the ACC, it would be like UT and OU leaving the SEC. In that case, I would worry.

 

[Coloradojacket]

In reading all the arguments/conversations I see that we don’t all agree on which is the most important criterion for adding new members to the ACC.

Is it getting into a new region / market? The B1G seems to like this approach because of a large alumni base spread across the country. Hence they add schools like Maryland, Rutgers and now Kansas.

Is it access to new recruiting regions? The B1G supposedly would like more access in other areas of the country, hence their approach of Tech a few years ago.

Is it to add brand prestige? The SEC is till king of this approach.

Is it to add fan bases? The PAC 12 in the past, and in current discussions, seem to like this approach with the added bonus of adding to the appeal of their TV rights and opening up new recruiting areas. But the SEC is still the king of this approach too.

Is it subscribers (whatever that means and however you define it)? I would be willing to bet Notre Dame is the king of this category and why they would like to never join a conference for football. They just need a place to park their Olympic sports.

What is it we need for the ACC? What is it Tech needs? I am persuaded by all I’ve read that the ACC needs to go big with brand prestige or we lose product prestige and therefore money in the long run. If the ACC can’t do that, doing nothing for the short run, though a horrible choice, is better than any other option. The caveat would be if the ACC can work out a scheduling agreement with the SEC or B1G.

If the B1G wants Tech and can make the grant of rights work out, I would be in favor of Tech making that move…if the ACC decides on a path of diminished growth, prestige, money and relevance.

Notre Dame will have to join a conference as they miss out on what the additional revenue it brings. They are locked into the ACC until 2036 and can join no other conference...unless the ACC comes apart. While many say WVU brings nothing, it is the logical choice. Again it is not all about local TV it is National audience. That is also where the B1G hurts. Many of their teams do not draw nationally.
If we were to join the B1G I think it would be a serious blow to us. No one wants to go to Michigan in November and there is no rivalry. We would probably drop Clemson and quit playing any other SEC team other than UGA. Tech Indiana at BDS would be a ghost town game.

 

[bobongo]

In reading all the arguments/conversations I see that we don’t all agree on which is the most important criterion for adding new members to the ACC.

Is it getting into a new region / market? The B1G seems to like this approach because of a large alumni base spread across the country. Hence they add schools like Maryland, Rutgers and now Kansas.

Is it access to new recruiting regions? The B1G supposedly would like more access in other areas of the country, hence their approach of Tech a few years ago.

Is it to add brand prestige? The SEC is till king of this approach.

Is it to add fan bases? The PAC 12 in the past, and in current discussions, seem to like this approach with the added bonus of adding to the appeal of their TV rights and opening up new recruiting areas. But the SEC is still the king of this approach too.

Is it subscribers (whatever that means and however you define it)? I would be willing to bet Notre Dame is the king of this category and why they would like to never join a conference for football. They just need a place to park their Olympic sports.

What is it we need for the ACC? What is it Tech needs? I am persuaded by all I’ve read that the ACC needs to go big with brand prestige or we lose product prestige and therefore money in the long run. If the ACC can’t do that, doing nothing for the short run, though a horrible choice, is better than any other option. The caveat would be if the ACC can work out a scheduling agreement with the SEC or B1G.

If the B1G wants Tech and can make the grant of rights work out, I would be in favor of Tech making that move…if the ACC decides on a path of diminished growth, prestige, money and relevance.

If we add schools, we can only add those that are available. So the criterion of practicality will be determined by necessity. No, the ACC isn't going to be able to poach Big Ten teams, as much as we'd like them to.

The future should be the other criterion. Strengthening our Florida presence with the one available school out there with the strongest upward trajectory would fill the bill. So would adding regional rivalries. A consideration of the future should be guided by considerations of the past, and what made college football special to begin with. Otherwise, we could adopt the pro model of national conferences and see how that works out for us.

"He who laughs last, laughs best". - old English proverb

 

[bobongo]

Notre Dame will have to join a conference as they miss out on what the additional revenue it brings.

Well, they'd better hurry up. We need to give them an offer they can't refuse, with the understanding it's our last one.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Notre Dame will have to join a conference as they miss out on what the additional revenue it brings. They are locked into the ACC until 2036 and can join no other conference...unless the ACC comes apart. While many say WVU brings nothing, it is the logical choice. Again it is not all about local TV it is National audience. That is also where the B1G hurts. Many of their teams do not draw nationally.
If we were to join the B1G I think it would be a serious blow to us. No one wants to go to Michigan in November and there is no rivalry. We would probably drop Clemson and quit playing any other SEC team other than UGA. Tech Indiana at BDS would be a ghost town game.

Yes and no. Most B1G schools have enrollments larger than 30,000 students. So their following is national with lots of alumni spread all over the country.

But Indiana at BDS is not very exciting. You are right. Like having Wake in town or an FCS. Good news is that their alumni would tune in unlike Duke.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Well, they'd better hurry up. We need to give them an offer they can't refuse, with the understanding it's our last one.

The problem is there is currently no incentive for ND to join us. They make a pile of money that they don’t have to share. And they have brand and a national following. So far they see joining a conference as diluting their national brand.

The possible leverage is that they need a conference for their non-revenue sports. Maybe the ACC could make that conditional.

 

[g0lftime]

The problem is there is currently no incentive for ND to join us. They make a pile of money that they don’t have to share. And they have brand and a national following. So far they see joining a conference as diluting their national brand.

The possible leverage is that they need a conference for their non-revenue sports. Maybe the ACC could make that conditional.

ND has the best of both worlds right now thanks to an incompetent former ACC commissioner who erroneously thought they would join the ACC. well they did in every other sport and we gave them guaranteed games against P5 teams which they need for rankings. They are a conference of one in FB. I don't know how tv revenue is split when they play an ACC team but the ACC has bent over backwards to accommodate them and they could care less about the ACC. the ACC has used them for some FB revenue but the ACC doesn't need them for BB which is the other revenue sport.
I don't see the need for any rash decision by the league at this time. Just need for the remaining P4 to talk about how to deal with the SEC down the road. without ND the ACC doesn't have any great options now for expansion. in the end it may come down to ND deciding between the B1G or the ACC. I don't know how long the current agreement is in place but at some point they need to be told either come in or find some other sucker. I have been around long enough to remember when Clemson wasn't very good and Alabama wasn't that dominant. Michigan was a power once just like USC. things change over time. the entire tv model is changing. There once was a college game of the week and not virtually every game played on Saturday. They used to introduce the players with their major until that became an embarrassment for some of the schools. college sports will evolve. how GT evolves is the only thing that matters to me. maybe P5 becomes 2 big conferences like the NFL and AFL were until the AFL caught up.
We have gone from a donations based race to build the best facilities to attract recruits to how much TV revenue a conference can generate so we can pay coaches millions of dollars to win games and entertain us.

 

[TooTall]

While many say WVU brings nothing, it is the logical choice. Again it is not all about local TV it is National audience.

You honestly think that WVU is a "National" team? Isn't WV the lowest rated state for broadband internet that is necessary for streaming? They bring nothing.

 

[Technut1990]

I dont see blind or panicked expansion by adding WV, UCF or several other teams. I don’t advocate that just for the fun or desperation of doing it. I advocate for expanding based on what’s available. If we see no value in adding a school which would be the 3rd or 4th largest in the current conference (WV) and then a school which would be the largest (UCF) we aren’t forward thinking.

Bobongo said it like I’m looking at it. Both schools are big and getting bigger, they increase our footprint and money. It seems some folks think Big 10 or SEC teams are knocking down the ACC door seeking admission, they aren’t and I see no reason they would.

im not one offing WV I’m seeking a balanced approach to a larger expansion which has more appeal not only on TV or streaming but in traditional football. I could easily see Tech and UCF becoming a rivalry and WV has built in rivals in the northeast ACC schools. WV certainly makes Syracuse and Boston College easier to watch. I’m not interested in WV alone making the ACC great I’m looking for viable schools with large followings ( at home if not nationally). There are more than 4-6 schools that fit that criteria, increase recruiting presence, gate revenue and viewership interest.

ND apparently isn’t coming right now and nobody is leaving the ACC until 2036 at the earliest.

while some advocate waiting we will be 70 million per year behind by 2036 and 600 million cumulatively As a conference. we may not catch up but we dang sure don’t have to fall further behind.

and once again, WV does bring everything I said they do it would be stupid to ignore a school that big that wants to join us, just from the potential they hold. Morgantown ain’t gonna stay an out of the way back hills city. UNC is in the middle of The Triad and has 2-3 schools next door. Chapel Hill is the 15th biggest city in NC and only has 15,000 more city residents. Their academics has been on full display as questionable and yet I don’t hear people asking what they bring to the table.

Can someone explain what WV does to the conference that Duke, NC State, Wake, Syracuse, BC or even Tech doesn’t. Not being a smartass but I just don’t get the hate. What about them pisses people off ?

and for the record, I say all this with absolutely no loyalty or endearing feelings for WV, I say it because they are one of the bigger schools out there that seems to want to come and again I’m missing how that hurts us.

 

[Technut1990]

What does WV bring ?

Attendance Rankings No. 1-130: 2019 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

How many people show up? As a part of the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis, the attendance is a factor. Here are the rankings from No. 1-130. Contact @PeteFiutak Beyond wins and losses, attendance mi…

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There are only 3 ACC teams with higher attendance per game.

they bring fans and alumni and that’s what the conference needs and they are bigger than at least half of our current member schools

 

[RonJohn]

Can someone explain what WV does to the conference that Duke, NC State, Wake, Syracuse, BC or even Tech doesn’t. Not being a smartass but I just don’t get the hate. What about them pisses people off ?

and for the record, I say all this with absolutely no loyalty or endearing feelings for WV, I say it because they are one of the bigger schools out there that seems to want to come and again I’m missing how that hurts us.

What does WV do for the conference that those schools do not?

It sounds like you are saying we MUST add somebody NOW. If we don't add someone NOW we are in trouble. It must happen within two minutes or we are going to be lost forever. That is what would hurt us. If there is a bigger plan that WVU is part of, then maybe we could add them. We should not tie the conference to more schools until and unless there is a real plan more than: OMG, WE HAVE TO HAVE THE SAME NUMBER OF TEAMS AS THE SEC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG, WHO WANTS TO JOIN THE ACC?

It isn't hate for WVU. I just do not see a big upside to WVU. I don't think they will immediately add $35 million to ACC revenue, and if they don't it will take money away from every other team in the ACC.

 

[Pointer]

What does WV bring ?

Attendance Rankings No. 1-130: 2019 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

How many people show up? As a part of the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis, the attendance is a factor. Here are the rankings from No. 1-130. Contact @PeteFiutak Beyond wins and losses, attendance mi…

collegefootballnews.com

There are only 3 ACC teams with higher attendance per game.

they bring fans and alumni and that’s what the conference needs and they are bigger than at least half of our current member schools

It's because few in WVA own TV's let alone have cable subscription/internet .

I am joking of course (kind of).

 

[stech81]

What does WV bring ?

Attendance Rankings No. 1-130: 2019 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

How many people show up? As a part of the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis, the attendance is a factor. Here are the rankings from No. 1-130. Contact @PeteFiutak Beyond wins and losses, attendance mi…

collegefootballnews.com

There are only 3 ACC teams with higher attendance per game.

they bring fans and alumni and that’s what the conference needs and they are bigger than at least half of our current member schools

They also have a better win lose record than Texas the last 10 years. And they have a lot of fans around Atlanta, That being said you can't add then unless ESPN will increase our TV money.