Expansion Talk 2021

[orientalnc]

Giglio: The SEC is expanding, don't count on the ACC following suit :: WRALSportsFan.com

The SEC is getting richer with the addition of Oklahoma and Texas. There's only one commensurate move the ACC can make and it's unlikely to happen any time soon.

www.wralsportsfan.com

 

[orientalnc]

The clock is ticking and I hope it‘s not we can’t seem to come to grips with the fact we need to divorce ourselves from the ACC. We’re on a sinking ship, about to be relegated to a sub-tier program. I’m hoping the ACC with the new Commissioner with Big whatever ties is secretly maneuvering behind the scenes but there’s absolutely ZERO hopeful ACC rumors being talked about. GT is historically very poor when it comes to strategic decisions. Not a good picture here.

I am not sure what signs you are seeing that the ACC is sinking. Clearly, the ACC is behind in the revenue department, but the conferenceis strong and very stable. Clemson and FSU and UNC are not going away. Neither are we.

 

[Technut1990]

To me the only thing The ACC can do is add teams. The ACC cannot control team prowess, which is based in large part to winning. The ACC can’t manipulate ND and I’m not to sure we want to be in a relationship that is based on manipulation from either side of that coin. So given the fact that there will be no edict issued which requires member schools to do more and there can’t be a magic snap of the fingers to create more alumni the only way to increase ACC loyalist is to increase the number of schools.

that’s the key given GORs restrictions on movement out of the conference. It stands to reason that bringing in 4-6 new schools increases, however slightly the money obliged to the conference. Dividing money generated by the current schools can only be increased by adding more money sources. The bigger task in all this is increasing member appeal, from a sports perspective. Duke is Duke until it isn’t “Duke”. Despite small TV audiences WV, UCF, Oklahoma St and the like bring loyal and die hard fans, who sell their stadiums out.

Perhaps adding West Virginia, Oklahoma St, UCF and Texas Tech as examples brings a bigger fan base to the conference but maybe more importantly it prompts The Dukes of the conference to stop blocking progression and see that they can be both popular in sports and highly regarded in education. Standing pat eventually leads to openly admitting that sports isn’t as important in the ACC and until sports becomes as important in the ACC maybe we should all resign ourselves to the fact that we can’t compete with The Big 10 or SEC as we stand on the corner preaching to seek faith in the second coming of Miami, Fla St, NC or even Ga Tech.

you add by addition

 

[orientalnc]

To me the only thing The ACC can do is add teams. The ACC cannot control team prowess, which is based in large part to winning. The ACC can’t manipulate ND and I’m not to sure we want to be in a relationship that is based on manipulation from either side of that coin. So given the fact that there will be no edict issued which requires member schools to do more and there can’t be a magic snap of the fingers to create more alumni the only way to increase ACC loyalist is to increase the number of schools.

that’s the key given GORs restrictions on movement out of the conference. It stands to reason that bringing in 4-6 new schools increases, however slightly the money obliged to the conference. Dividing money generated by the current schools can only be increased by adding more money sources. The bigger task in all this is increasing member appeal, from a sports perspective. Duke is Duke until it isn’t “Duke”.

Perhaps adding West Virginia, Oklahoma St, UCF and Texas Tech as examples brings bigger fan base to the conference but maybe more importantly it prompts The Dukes of the conference to stop blocking progression and see that they can be both popular in sports and highly regarded in education. Standing pat eventually leads to openly admitting that sports isn’t as important and until sports becomes as important in the ACC maybe we should all resign ourselves to the fact that we can’t compete with The Big 10 or SEC as we stand on the corner preaching to seek faith in the second coming of Miami, Fla St, NC or even Ga Tech.

you add by addition

The thing that could change the minds at ND would be for the CFP selection committee to decide that all four participants had to be conference champions. Suddenly there would be no ND and no second team from the SEC.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

The day the ACC adds West Virginia is the day it has accepted it's fate that they are the new Conference USA. No one is adding WVU to get stronger.

 

[Technut1990]

The day the ACC adds West Virginia is the day it has accepted it's fate that they are the new Conference USA. No one is adding WVU to get stronger.

then prepare to be weaker, you don't get stronger denying the obvious. If we are talking about sports, which I don’t think we are, West Virginia has no less appeal than Duke, Wake, Syracuse or Boston College. If this anti WV stuff is about education then The ACC isn’t going to compete in the big conference thing anyway, better to simply acknowledge that The ACC is an Ivy League and move on

 

[Technut1990]

The thing that could change the minds at ND would be for the CFP selection committee to decide that all four participants had to be conference champions. Suddenly there would be no ND and no second team from the SEC.

that won’t happen with ND and the SEC sitting on the board that decides those things

 

[orientalnc]

then prepare to be weaker, you don't get stronger denying the obvious. If we are talking about sports, which I don’t think we are, West Virginia has no less appeal than Duke, Wake, Syracuse or Boston College. If this anti WV stuff is about education then The ACC isn’t going to compete in the big conference thing anyway, better to simply acknowledge that The ACC is an Ivy League and move on

I believe, to a certain degree, the ACC has done just that. I know the argument re Louisville, but doesn't change anything going forward. WVU is not even in a class with UL from an academic POV. But, neither is UCF.

 

[Technut1990]

I believe, to a certain degree, the ACC has done just that. I know the argument re Louisville, but doesn't change anything going forward. WVU is not even in a class with UL from an academic POV. But, neither is UCF.

The problem is that if the ACC has decided it’s members are to elite to be cool then they are running a game on its fan base. They are trying to act like they want to compete on the field while they are actually focused on education. The billions of dollars gifted to ACC schools in donor contributions toward sports is essentially exploiting donors. People who have for example donated to Techs sports facilities rebuilding or The Brock practice facility are being sold a bill of goods or they just want a large deduction on their taxes.

 

[Techster]

I am not sure what signs you are seeing that the ACC is sinking. Clearly, the ACC is behind in the revenue department, but the conferenceis strong and very stable. Clemson and FSU and UNC are not going away. Neither are we.

Pretty much all media is discussing the dire fate of the ACC...and each of its members. Personally, I think GT will come out well in the end because our two major sports programs are traditionally good to really good with a season or two of elite every decade, we have elite academics, and location in the biggest Southern market makes us very attractive (Caveat being if the B1G doesn't knock on our door, GT could end up in a game of musical chairs). The big question for GT is, how bad will it get for us between now and when the ACC's GOR ends in 2036? Can ACC members find a way to force the ACC to either strengthen our position or let us leave early so the sinking boat doesn't take everyone down?

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article253041348.html

Analysis: What's next for the Power 5 conferences after SEC expansion?

Like it or not, expansion is on the table. Here are options for each Power Five conference and what could be next for the Football Bowl Subdivision.

www.usatoday.com

As of right now, the ACC's Grant of Rights is just a cement block tied to each member's ankle...eventually, when the revenue gap becomes so wide between the SEC and B1G, the ACC will become just another Big East and the Conference will just drown everyone into the abyss. When 2036 rolls around, and because the ACC has no cards to play or unwillingness to think outside of the box (think ACC - PAC 12/B1G merger), there will a mass exodus and the SEC and B1G will scoop up all of the best brands/schools. 15 years is LONG time and the chasm between the SEC and everyone will grow exponentially during that time. The disparity between the ACC and SEC now will pale in comparison to what will happen in 15 years. In a game of revenue deciding who gets the best facilities, recruits, and coaches, a widening revenue disparity can be a death knell for ACC members.

It's pretty much unanimous that ND is only big card left for the ACC to play...and ND has flat out said they are not joining any conference. In fact, because they are one of the most well known "brands" in college sports, the age of streaming sports will only make them stronger. They actually have a VERY good future because of the potential of streaming. Also, because ND has special treatment when it comes to the playoffs, there is even less reason for them to join a conference. ND is not going to be the ACC's shining white knight coming over the hill to rescue us.

West Virginia does NOTHING for the ACC in terms of adding media revenue. They have awesome fans that travel, but it's a small fan base and their brand is not a top tier one on the level of UNC/Texas/FSU/'Bama/Clemson...brands that move the needle. Trying to get Penn State or any other B1G program to join? LOL...that is NEVER happening. Why would a school from a conference of strength that's currently making $15-20 million a year more than what they could get in the ACC, and projects to make even MORE in the future, leave to join a conference with a questionable future and even more questionable revenue? Let's stop being delusional with that.

IF GT ends up on the short end of it, we will have no one to blame but ourselves. Years of poor strategic planning and decisions is coming back to haunt us. Remember, we were founding members of the SEC...and voluntarily left. B1G gave us an invite during the last round of expansion...and we turned them down. At some point, we need to look in the mirror and ask ourselves what GT really wants to be. Do we want to be in the business of sports, or do we just want to play sports?

 

[orientalnc]

The problem is that if the ACC has decided it’s members are to elite to be cool then they are running a game on its fan base. They are trying to act like they want to compete on the field while they are actually focused on education. The billions of dollars gifted to ACC schools in donor contributions toward sports is essentially exploiting donors. People who have for example donated to Techs sports facilities rebuilding or The Brock practice facility are being sold a bill of goods or they just want a large deduction on their taxes.

I see your point, but would your donations to the ATF stop if the ACC did not expand?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The clock is ticking and I hope it‘s not we can’t seem to come to grips with the fact we need to divorce ourselves from the ACC. We’re on a sinking ship, about to be relegated to a sub-tier program. I’m hoping the ACC with the new Commissioner with Big whatever ties is secretly maneuvering behind the scenes but there’s absolutely ZERO hopeful ACC rumors being talked about. GT is historically very poor when it comes to strategic decisions. Not a good picture here.

And, so far, each rumor that persists on this issue, ends up being true, alas.

So we know now that SEC is expanding, the B1G is expanding, and the Big 12 and PAC 12 are in negotiations of some kind.

And, unless the ACC is engaged in some kind of secret deep ninja activity, then the crickets we hear are the only story.

 

[Techster]

And, so far, each rumor that persists on this issue, ends up being true, alas.

So we know now that SEC is expanding, the B1G is expanding, and the Big 12 and PAC 12 are in negotiations of some kind.

And, unless the ACC is engaged in some kind of secret deep ninja activity, then the crickets we hear are the only story.

I have ZERO doubts the ACC is trying to make something happen. The ACC still has a LOT to offer...but the ACC is dealing in a position of weakness, so you have to ask yourself if the ACC ends up with a good deal at the end of all of this. Whether it's expansion bringing on other members, or a strategic partnership with other conferences, I do have my doubts that the ACC has the ability to make its current members stronger.

 

[Technut1990]

I see your point, but would your donations to the ATF stop if the ACC did not expand?

kinda remains to be seen. I guess it’s a labor of love but if you love your school it may be discouraging seeing it’s conference throw it’s sports hands up in inaction while telling people they want to compete on the elite level. Remains to be seen how doing nothing impacts donors. Tech has collected a lot of money lately so we may not see an immediate impact here.

 

[Jmonty71]

At this point, they should just create an NFL minor league. I mean, we ALL know that school isn't going to be a real thing, in the SEC. So, why fake it? Why put the illusion that they are "student athletes"? Just let them play 2 years and make a shot for the NFL.... ESPN gets what they want and these money hungry kids get what they want. Let the schools that want to do it the right way, remain in the NCAA... Call it what it is... A strike is a strike and a ball is a ball..... I know that sounds harsh, but this is well past the point of anything but a money grab. Has nothing to do with education..

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Let’s remember one more time why some of us have angst about what is happening. Recruiting. Tech historically starts out with one hand tied behind its back when it comes to recruiting and through the decades we have relived the myth of Sisyphus trying to get that recruiting stone to stay at the top of the hill (forgive mixing two metaphors in one sentence). But if the entire conference now becomes the weight of negative recruiting by other conferences against us….

 

[RonJohn]

then prepare to be weaker, you don't get stronger denying the obvious. If we are talking about sports, which I don’t think we are, West Virginia has no less appeal than Duke, Wake, Syracuse or Boston College. If this anti WV stuff is about education then The ACC isn’t going to compete in the big conference thing anyway, better to simply acknowledge that The ACC is an Ivy League and move on

I think some people have made purely sports arguments, and you have appeared to have ignored them. From a pure sporting standpoint, look at the current ACC and SEC and the potential future ACC and SEC. If the SEC adds Texas and Oklahoma, from a purely sports standpoint, they are much stronger. If the ACC adds WV and UCF, they are slightly stronger from a pure sports standpoint. The gap between the conferences is bigger.

Just from a fan perspective: The SEC is making a bold move. Adding schools like WV and UCF will not match that move. It would be reactionary. It wouldn't make up the original gap. It wouldn't match the increase that the SEC will see. If you are trying to keep up with the Joness, and your neighbor buys a Ferrari, purchasing a Kia won't "keep up". Even purchasing a Mustang or Camaro (WV and UCF) won't keep up. If the ACC were able to add ND and Penn State, that would be on par with the move that the SEC is making. Making additions less than that type are an admission that the ACC is always going to be weaker, and in my opinion is worse than doing nothing.

 

[slugboy]

At this point, they should just create an NFL minor league. I mean, we ALL know that school isn't going to be a real thing, in the SEC. So, why fake it? Why put the illusion that they are "student athletes"? Just let them play 2 years and make a shot for the NFL.... ESPN gets what they want and these money hungry kids get what they want. Let the schools that want to do it the right way, remain in the NCAA... Call it what it is... A strike is a strike and a ball is a ball..... I know that sounds harsh, but this is well past the point of anything but a money grab. Has nothing to do with education..

The NFL tried with NFL Europe and was trying again with Arena League. They’d like a minor league if it was a money maker

 

[Technut1990]

In business, volume of sales comes before you can sell quality of product. Sure you will argue that your product is top notch but in reality volume creates the means of investment which can make your product elite. It’s the difference between molded plastic and real mahogany. You can charge base prices and sell faux products or produce real products and charge higher prices. In other words The ACC better get into volume if it wants to generate the money to put a real product out there. To repeat myself, volume in this case appears to be alumni And gate revenue. You have to increase the alumni to improve the revenue, improved revenue creates improved product, improved product creates bigger demand, bigger demand creates bigger TV revenue. You increase alumni by bringing on the bigger schools/fan bases. If teams that are in the bigger TV markets are committed elsewhere then fan base is the next untapped source. Schools like UCF and yes WV, increase revenue via increasing fan base Simply by being bigger.

by comparison, WV total enrollment looks to be about 26,000 while Duke is around 16,000. Strictly from an alumni perspective Ga. Southern, App St and Georgia State produce more alumni than Duke or Wake Forest. By comparison Texas has around 42,000 each year. I’m saying all this from a sports fiancé perspective. If your response is that Duke is a higher educational school or something along the lines of ‘only academic elites get into Duke‘ then you are having an education conversation not an athletic or conference sports competition conversation. Even if every one alum at every school in the country only created $ 1 annually The ACC is by virtue of their own tactics, anything but elite in the sports arena, that’s the biggest problem in the lagging financial outlook and it’s why they can’t generate TV value. Like the judge ruled, The Men’s soccer pays more because it generates more.

 

[BCJacket]

I think a lot of you are thinking about this backwards. "The ACC needs to get out of the ESPN deal to survive." But ESPN is very happy with the ACC deal. ESPN isn't going to let the ACC dissolve and ruin their sweet 15 more years bargain price media deal. The best outcome for ESPN is for the ACC brand to get better and improve the value of that content. It would not be good for ESPN for the big brands (FSU, Clem, UM) move to the more expensive (to ESPN) SEC media deal and leave them with a weaker ACC product for the next 15 years.

Texas and OU to the SEC is great for ESPN. They get the two B12 brands they really want. Without a bidding war with Fox, etc. Also, without needing to carry Iowa St. ESPN's deal with the SEC already had a clause for what happens if they add certain teams. They don't even have to negotiate that.

The reasons a B1G team (Penn St) might be enticed to the ACC is that, reportedly, many schools aren't happy with the B1G leadership - the handling of covid last year, for example. Their (favorable to the B1G) media deal with Fox runs out in 2024. They may not be able to negotiate as good a deal again. ESPN would love to get one or more of the valuable B1G brands over to the ACC (even if they have to rework that deal some). Then maybe not have to bid against Fox for Perdue and Rutgers in a few years.

Likewise, ESPN would love to get ND from NBC. Though ND may think they can get a better standalone deal - streaming on YouTube? However, NBC is deemphasizing sports. Shut down NBCSN. Having a CFB game to broadcast Saturday afternoons is great. But they might be into a deal with ESPN to carry an ACC game of the week, if ND joins the ACC. ESPN gets their product on another national broadcast channel. NBC gets valuable content to air without having to do a whole deal.

IMHO, the most likely outcome is that the ACC and ESPN entice another big brand or two into the ACC (probably one we're not expecting right now) from a 'Fox' conference. Then arrange a scheduling alliance between the ACC and the SEC (a bunch of these natural rivalries exist already) effectively creating a dominant 32 team league all under ESPNs control. Perhaps with it's own playoff. ESPN makes a lot of money off it and pays the ACC a little more. At that point, when the Pac12 and B1G media deals run out, any school wanting a shot at the CFP is going to have to try to get under that umbrella. Or Fox tries to build a competing superleague out of the Pac12/Big12 and B1G...

Bottom line, nothing is going to happen to the ACC that isn't good for our corporate overlords. And they're locked into us for 15 years too.