ESPN is playing God right now. I think they want a viable alternative to the NFL and the NBA, and the SEC mega conference full of brands just might be it. FSU and Clemson being mentioned by multiple sources to the SEC is no coincidence, and the AD leaving FSU basically said FSU will do what's in the best interest of the program. The only people who don't see what's coming with all of the schools jockeying for position are fans who keep waxing nostalgic about tradition and regional rivalries. None of that matters anymore because a school's brand supercedes that. Who doesn't like watching Ohio State play Alabama? Or OU play LSU? How about USC playing Florida? Texas playing Michigan? Clemson playing Tennessee? None of them have historical rivalries with each other, but the strength of their brands are going to make a LOT of people tune in. That is what matters to ESPN...and other media networks. I think ESPN is tired of dealing and cowtowing to the NFL, and paying a LOT of money.
David Pollack mentioned that the SEC moves are likely in response to eventually pulling away from the NCAA altogether. The NCAA is not equipped to deal with the NIL and the business potential for both the SA and the schools. NCAA dragged their behinds trying to dodge NIL altogether insteading of accepting it and making sure all member schools abide by the same guidelines. Now it's a free for all, and schools are seeing that the NCAA is outdated and not prepared to help them with what's to come. The NCAA was useful during the "amatuer model" years, but that time is passing...as is the usefulness of the NCAA.
If you still believe Grant of Rights will prevent schools from moving, just pay attention to what's going on in the Big 12...and the ACC soon. If enough schools in a conference fight it, then it becomes worthless. Lawyers and giant media networks like ESPN will find a way for assets (schools) to move to other places that's in the best interest of making more money.
Few things here.
1. You're assuming ESPN is a healthy business with a strong future. I'm not so sure this is the case. They have an old business model tied down to many contracts related to cable tv subscriptions. The way they operate, much of the know how of the employees there is related to dealing with cable television and people in that business.
Currently, ESPN spend $5 per customer.
They charge $8 per customer. These are both monthly figures.
I think we can all agree that the future is direct to customer subscriptions, which is what I'm getting at. ESPN is a large and old machine that may or may not be able to adapt to it, with all of their infrastructure built to deal with cable tv.
Currently, as it stands, per Disney CEO (Disney owns ESPN) it would cost ESPN $15 per customer per month to go this route. Ain't gonna cut it while currently getting $8 from the customer per month.
They are ok right now as they still have plenty of cable tv subscriptions, but it is a clear trend that that is coming to an end.
Who's to say a newer more efficient and able network doesn't come in built right away for direct to customer model. (Think Netflix and Blockbuster). Who's to say ESPN will still be the same ESPN it is today in 2036?
2. Nobody has even said that the SEC is planning to add beyond OU and TX. I'm not buying it just yet, not saying it's impossible, I just don't see it. The Big 12 has been in a bad way ever since the last round of realignment. Since then, they have been pretty weak, and Oklahoma and Texas honestly haven't done much to carry the load (much more so with Texas). It is a very similar situation with when the ACC raided the Big East. Teams from the Big East wanted out of a failing conference and the ACC was happy to take them.
3. The remaining conferences are much stronger then the BIG 12 and will not just sit idly by if the SEC really is trying to start it's own league. The ACC is still the major power in basketball, and had had recent success in football as well (just been spun into less success by those with interest in the SEC). The B1G had also had similar success and are quite a healthy conference. They can surely hold their own against the SEC.
A really effective move to make in the short term is prevent the expansion of the playoffs to 12 teams.
4. The SEC is just a couple of bad future head coaching hires away from turning into what Texas has become. Trees don't grow to the sky and what goes up must come down. Most of the SEC's hype is due to Alabama (specifically Nick Saban), when they come back down to earth, the hype will eventually come with them (FSU, MIAMI... come to mind). I don't see Alabama being as lucky as OSU in getting two great head coaches in a row.
5. It's easy to allow greed to rush you into a hasty decision. All of these fans calling for their team to join some super conference of the SEC are more than ok with all of the tradition that would surely die with it. Lots of schools not currently hyped up would be left by the wayside, which is terrible. The point of sports in general isn't just money, it's about competition, tradition, rivalries, and the highs and lows of each team. Just like how trees don't grow forever, what is down won't stay down forever, but deals like this will ensure the unnecessary death of what could have a bright future.
Excuse any weird wording, wrote all this on my phone and the autocorrect can be crazy at times.